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Thursday, 13 April 2017

Rencap says Egypt is a haven trade, Werr says state of emergency could slow recovery down

Renaissance Capital says investing in Egypt is an emerging market safe-haven trade, Global Chief Economist Charles Robertson told Bloomberg TV. Egypt is one of the places that provide “idiosyncratic opportunities,” he says, despite the terrorist attacks. “It’s high yield and it’s got a cheap currency,” Robertson adds. Looking at EMs generally, Robertson also recommends an overweight position in Russia, saying “it’s becoming a more normal country,” (runtime 04:10).

…The Palm Sunday attacks and the imposition of a three-month state of emergency will probably slow the recovery — “not by much, but they do not help matters either,” Patrick Werr writes in The National. The state of emergency could create a “climate of alarm that could act as a deterrent to investment, whether by foreigners or Egyptians,” he says. Pharos’ Radwa Elswaify tells Werr that “investments as in FDIs were already not on the table now. We were estimating 2018 or 2017 end at the earliest, which I think the bombings should not affect … If we are talking hot money, Treasury and stock market, they were not affected [by the bombings]. Foreigners were net buyers the second day of the attacks and the value of their purchases did not come down.”

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