Ladies and gentlemen, there is no parallel market for greenbacks. As we’ve noted a couple of times this week, there’s been chatter in Cairo since the weekend that “the black market is back” with the USD changing hands for north of EGP 17. We touched base with two senior bankers yesterday who dumped buckets of ice water on the notion.

What’s happening is simple: Foreign exchange offices have been boxed out of the FXmarket and are now making a play for market share. FX bureaux controlled the parallel market for FX prior to 3 November, capturing the lion’s share of the bns in remittances transferred into Egypt by expat workers every quarter. Their market share has since fallen to the single digits because banks have the liquidity to keep up with market demand. Said one banker: “We lost market share before November to the FX guys because we couldn’t offer above EGP 8.88 [per USD, the official rate at the time]. They had 90% of the flow and made a killing. Now they’ve lost market share to the banks because their customers are selling to us. The banks are easily meeting demand and the CBE hasn’t given us guidance on pricing one way or another. Not even a hint — none of that is happening.”

The central bank has indeed guided the banks to allocate 25% of their excess USD to the backlog queue, “and we’re doing that,” said another banker. “We can bid whatever we want for USD, flows to the interbank market are rising. If there was demand at 17 or 18, we’d be bidding that high. There isn’t, so we’re not.”

What to expect in the coming days: One of the smartest guys we know says it comes down to retail psychology: “Retail flows into the banking system have been dry the last two or three days because there’s confusion — ‘What’s this [redacted] about the black market being 17?’ They’re holding onto their USD because they don’t know which way to go. This is typical behavior: They stop when they don’t know what’s going on, and the moment it seems the USD is going to lose a bit of strength, they sell into the fall and will drive it down further.”

The Finance Ministry is reducing the exchange rate used to calculate customs duties to EGP 15.75 per USD 1 starting from today, Minister Amr El Garhy told Reuters. The rate was reduced and capped at EGP 16.00 per USD 1 mid-last month. The new rate will be valid until 15 March when it will be revisited according to the market exchange rates at the time, El Garhy added.

A Russian business delegation lands in Cairo today. The delegation, led by First Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Gleb Nikitin, is on a two-day visit to discuss establishing a Russian industrial zone in East Port Said and will meet with a number Egyptian officials, according to an emailed statement from the Russian Industry and Trade Ministry. An unnamed source from the Trade and Industry Ministry claims that the Russians are looking to increase the amount of land allocated to the zone from 800 km² to 20,000 km², Youm7 reports. Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry and the Russian Export Center are holding a media event this evening at 6:00 pm at the Russian Cultural Center on the industrial zone, according to our friends at Shahid Law Firm, who are advising the delegation.

The business delegation’s arrival comes after Defense Minister Sedki Sobhi and the Armed Forces’ Chief of Staff Mahmoud Hegazy met with Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Dmitry Rogozin, during which the two sides discussed regional and international security issues and increasing cooperation, Al Masry Al Youm reports.

Are we on the cusp of a virtuous cycle for emerging markets? The price of iron ore is rising thanks to recovering demand in China, which isn’t going to have a “hard landing” after all. Container shipping prices are spiking. Vietnam’s garment sector is booming. Quoth the Financial Times: “There is even a chance of the emerging world entering a virtuous cycle, says David Hensley, an economist at JPMorgan, in which optimism begets investment, which in turn begets higher productivity and earnings, leading to yet more investment and faster growth.” The wildcard: China’s housing market will be “central to the sustainability of the emerging market rally,” meaning there is a risk that “We may be becoming super positive on emerging markets just as Chinese housing begins to turn down.” Whether you work in EM or just invest here, you’re going to want to have a look at the Financial Times’ Big Read this morning: “Are emerging markets entering a new virtuous cycle?” The kicker is in the subhed: “Optimism over growth and returning investment on the back of Chinese demand is offset by fears of problems ahead.”

Fintech types and lawyers beware: The robots giveth, the robots taketh away. The head of asset management at JPMorgan Chase “has cast doubt over the future of digital advisers, stressing that ‘human beings need human beings’ — especially in times of market stress,” the Financial Times writes. Mary Erdoes believes that “Once [asset] prices start to drop and anxiety rises, customers may no longer be happy to be guided solely by software.” Sounds great, right? But on the other side of the equation, legal robots at JPMorgan have just shown that they can crunch through 360,000 hours of contract work in in seconds, Bloomberg tells us.