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Tuesday, 14 February 2017

What we’re tracking on 14 February 2017

Happy Valentine’s Day, wonderful readers. It looks like we’re getting a basket of gifts, including positive economic indicators, a love letter from America, a tub-tub from the head of the EBRD and … a new cabinet?

That’s right, folks: A new cabinet. We look to be hours away from learning who keeps their seats and who’s exiting stage left in Prime Minister Sherif Ismail’s cabinet shuffle. The list apparently made it to the House of Representatives yesterday, and the House has been leaking since last night like a rusty pipe in August. We have the full rundown in Speed Round, but if you read no further than this sentence, you can take heart that it seems Finance Minister Amr El Garhy and Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil are staying, suggesting policy stability is the order of the day. We hope the same can be said about Investment Minister Dalia Khorshid.

Our heart-shaped card this year comes in the form of a flattening yield curve, more signs of foreign currency inflows, and early signs of recovering EGP after the pound strengthened to better than EGP 17.00 to the greenback. Those be green shoots, everyone. (More on all of this in Speed Round, too.)

Oh, and the Central Bank of Egypt’s take on inflation was out yesterday (pdf) and it doesn’t make us want to shoot ourselves in the head. Why? Month-on-month inflation rose modestly to 4.07% in January compared to 3.13% in December. As one of the smartest people we know told us earlier this week: Forget about year-on-year inflation. It’s meaningless after a “force majeure” event such as the float. We think the month-on-month figures back Finance Minister Amr El Garhy’s suggestion earlier this week that inflation should peak by the end of this quarter.

A love letter to Egypt from America: Our friends at the Egyptian American Enterprise Fund will release chairman Jim Harmon’s 2017 Annual Letter today (pdf) and are giving Enterprise readers a sneak peek. The highlight of the letter is Harmon’s expectation that US President Donald Trump will be “the ultimate ‘deal’ president” and that “the warm relationship he shares with the Egyptian leadership gives us hope that this is an opportune moment for Egypt to build a constructive relationship with the US.” EAEF portfolio companies Sarwa Capital and Fawry both “exceeded their operational and financial targets for 2016,” Harmon notes, and are ideally positioned to benefit from the Central Bank of Egypt’s financial inclusion push starting this year. Harmon’s letter also notes that former regional IFC boss Nada Shousha has joined EAEF’s board. Name check: Our friends at Algebra Ventures, Tanmiya Capital Ventures — two new investments at EAEF — and Lorax Partners all get singled out for love, and we’re delighted that the wonderful Amal Enan has been tapped to become the fund’s executive director, having previously served as chief of staff.

Sweet nothings whispered in our ear by the international community #1: We’re getting attention this morning from IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who said, “The latest developments we’re seeing as far as currency appreciation are probably an indicator that the transition is coming to a close.” Her statements came in an interview on Dubai TV with Zeina Soufan (runtime: 1:24) on the sidelines of the Second Arab Fiscal Forum in Dubai. She does state that it may get worse before it gets better when asked on the 29.6% headline inflation, but noted that this is typical of an economy in transition, and once the transition is done, we should see inflation drop.

Sweet nothings whispered in our ear by the international community #2: Meanwhile, EBRD boss Sir Suma Chakrabarti hailed the improvements in Egypt’s business climate, telling Reuters that the country has taken great strides since the IMF loan agreement was inked in November. The EBRD is “still only scratching the surface of commercial opportunities” in countries like Egypt—where it has so far invested EUR 5 bn—and also in Morocco, Tunisia, and Jordan and sees its investments potentially doubling over the next five years. The bank is currently in talks with sovereign wealth funds in the GCC over joint investment opportunities.

Egypt back on the global energy investment map: Also taking place today is the 2017 Egypt Petroleum Show. We were told President El Sisi might be stopping by there. Shell Egypt Managing Director Gasser Hanter, who is slotted to speak at the conference, said that Egypt is “placing itself on the global energy map once again,” and lauded the show as a positive step in attracting FDI and increasing economic growth, Youm7 reports.

The sweetest gift of all: The House of Representatives’ disciplinary committee has recommended booting The Thing Called Agina from parliament. Readers will recall Agina as the misogynist who believes women should undergo [redacted] tests as a condition for admission to university and that they should also be subject to mutilation to compensate for the [redacted] dysfunction of Egyptian men.

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