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Tuesday, 14 February 2017

It’s cabinet shuffle day, and here are the likely incoming ministers

It’s cabinet shuffle day as the House of Representatives is set to vote on Prime Minister Sherif Ismail’s new line-up, having received the final roster from the PM last night. The list of ministers has been leaking piecemeal to the press, and there have been a handful of contradictory reports. Based on a statement last night from the prime minister and having parsed about 6.02 x 10^23 individual media reports, here’s what we expect:

What we know for certain: There will be nine new ministers, and two portfolios will be merged into one, the prime minister said last night, according to Al Shorouk. Finance Minister Amr El Garhy set a template by tapping very competent people to serve as deputy ministers — deputy ministers whose appointments were announced essentially at the same time as his. Ismail suggested he will follow that example this time around, with up to four deputy ministers set to be appointed across a number of ministries at the same time as the first line is announced. The PM offered no further details on the shuffle other than to confirm that all will be revealed today.

It is with great relief that we report hearing that Finance Minister Amr El Garhy will stay on as Finance Minister. Ismail’s reference to the success of the El Garhy’s deputy ministers — Ahmed Kouchouk, Amr El Monayer, and Mohamed Maait — leaves us optimistic they will also continue in office. Sources from the Electricity Ministry tell Al Mal that Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker isn’t going anywhere, and it presently seems a safe wager that Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil will stay on, despite a single report to the contrary from Al Mal.

Also staying: The so-called ‘sovereign ministers’ of defense, foreign affairs, interior and justice will all keep their posts, from what we understand.

So, who’s out? We have no inside information, but a number of news outlets are reporting that Investment Minister Dalia Khorshid is on her way out. This would be disappointing, as the relatively low-profile Khorshid has proven herself both competent and proactive, particularly on policy. Perhaps not as shocking is that Planning Minister Ashraf Al Araby will be leaving cabinet after a long run. There is talk that Health Minister Ahmed Rady is out, while a handful of sources are positing that Supply Minister Mohamed Ali El Sheikh could go, too.

Other ministers whose names have consistently popped up as candidates to exit: Ergot flip-flopping artist Agriculture Minister Essam Fayed; Education Minister El Hilali El Sherbiny (probably because he was outplayed by a Facebook group); Higher Education Minister Ashraf El Sheehy; Parliamentary Affairs Minister Magdy El Agaty; Local Development Minister Ahmed Badr; Endowments Minister Mokhtar Gomaa.

Set to merge: Word on the grapevine is that the tourism and civil aviation ministries will consummate their union today.

Okay, but who is in? The rumor mill is in overdrive. Highlights:

  • House Economics Committee head Ali El Moselhy has been tapped to join the new cabinet and has resigned his seat in the House of Representatives, a development confirmed by Rep. Moustafa Bakry. Speculation is rife that the former Mubarak-era Social Solidarity Minister and former head of Egypt Post will head either the Investment Ministry or the Supply Ministry, but the smart money seems to be on Moselhy taking over theSupply Ministry.
  • The very competent Deputy Governor of the Central Bank Lobna Helal has been tapped to take over the Planning Ministry, Al Mal reports.
  • Sources also said that Hesham El Sherif, a former head of the Cabinet Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC), will be appointed minister of local development, Al Borsa reports.
  • Agriculture economist Abdel Moneim El Banna is reportedly going to head up the Agriculture Ministry.
  • Muawad El-Khouli will be appointed minister of higher education, sources tell Ahram Online.
  • Central Authority For Organization & Administration head Mohamed Gamil will join cabinet, according to Al Borsa, which does not specify the position he may take.
  • Cairo Court of Appeals head Ayman Abbas was said to be in the running to take over Legal Affairs, a report he has since denied.

How will the confirmation vote work? The House must approve or reject the whole lineup and will not vote on individual ministers. If MPs reject the list of nominees presented by Prime Minister Sherif Ismail, he can reshuffle once more or keep his current cabinet.

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