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Monday, 13 February 2017

What we’re tracking on 13 February 2017

Will we see the new cabinet lineup today? The House of Representatives will vote on the composition of the next Council of Ministers in plenary session tomorrow, MP Moustafa Bakry tells MBC Misr 2’s Sabahak Masry. If MPs were to reject the lineup, Prime Minister Sherif Ismail would have the option of shuffling the deck once more or sticking with the current cabinet. Ismail was reportedly in meetings with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to agree on the final list yesterday, Al Shorouk reports.

Finance Minister Amr El-Garhy expects inflation to peak by the end of 1Q17, Bloomberg reports. In an interview with Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of the Second Arab Fiscal Forum in Dubai, El Garhy said, “It is all resulting from supply shocks rather than demand driven kind of inflation. We knew that this is still peaking when it comes to inflation, we expect this to happen.” Headline inflation rose to 29.6% last month, according to state statistics agency CAPMAS.

El Garhy is right — which brings us to one of the smartest guys we know, who growled at us yesterday that year-on-year inflation is meaningless — we should all be looking at month-on-month right now. We think he has a point. The one-time shock to the system that was devaluation on 3 November is a breakpoint that makes y-o-y comparisons essentially meaningless until November 2017.

Also in Dubai yesterday, Egypt’s value-added tax (VAT) and reform program received props from IMF Director Christine Lagarde, who spoke about the need for more focused tax policies and diverse revenue streams to really aid GDP growth in the region, according to Gulf News. “Egypt, for example, last year approved the replacement of the old general sale tax with a new VAT,” Lagarde said. “Once fully implemented, the new VAT will raise 1.5% of GDP more in revenue than the old tax.” Tap here for the full text of Lagarde’s speech at the Forum yesterday.

Finally, Dubai’s ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum praised UAE’s special relations with Egypt at the World Government Summit held concurrently with the fiscal forum yesterday, describing the latter as “the heart and soul of the Arab world,” Arab News reports.

An annual exercise in group self-pleasure by and for music industry hacks — commonly known as “the Grammys” — took place last night. Yes, rock n’ roll is still dead (in the mind of industry execs, at least), but hip-hop is slowly catching up, as Drake’s horrendous Hotline Bling beat out newcomer Chance the Rapper’s No Problem for Best Rap Song. You can catch the Guardian’s live blog for the rest.

‘Tis the day before Valentine’s Day. Please tell us you’re not staying home on red silk sheets with Michael Bolton on Netflix. It’s meant to be a comedy, Wired tells us, which suggests it may be safer to read about it than to watch it. As one of our former colleagues was wont to say: That which has been seen cannot be unseen. On a perhaps more serious note: You may wish to give thought to a gift for your partner; forwarding a link to the Michael Bolton special on El Whats does not count.

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