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Sunday, 22 January 2017

BY THE NUMBERS

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Pharos Holding - http://www.pharosholding.com/

EGP / USD CBE market average: Buy 18.7456 | Sell 18.9100
EGP / USD at CIB: Buy 18.651 | Sell 18.751
EGP / USD at NBE: Buy 18.6 | Sell 18.7

EGX30 (Thursday): 12,806.77 (-3.74%)
Turnover: EGP 1.451 bn (233% above the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: +3.741%

THE MARKET ON THURSDAY: The EGX30 ended the trading session 3.7% down after a major sell off. Thursday’s top gainer was Eastern Company, while Edita closed flat. Thursday’s worst performing stocks included Ezz Steel, Pioneers, and SODIC. The market turnover was EGP 1.45 bn and local investors were the sole net sellers.

Foreigners: Net long | EGP +112.8 mn
Regional: Net long | EGP +24.9 mn
Domestic: Net short | EGP -137.7 mn

Retail: 74.5% of total trades | 75.3% of buyers | 73.8% of sellers
Institutions: 25.5% of total trades | 24.7% of buyers | 26.2% of sellers

Foreign: 10.9% of total | 14.8% of buyers | 7.0% of sellers
Regional: 7.7% of total | 8.6% of buyers | 6.9% of sellers
Domestic: 81.4% of total | 76.6% of buyers | 86.1% of sellers

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PHAROS VIEW

The anatomy of economic agents’ behavior before and after currency flotation

Since the EGP flotation in November, the value of the EGP has dramatically declined versus the USD. This is in line with the typical dynamics of exchange rate volatility following currency floatation. Moreover, we note that commercial banks’ exchange rate bid-ask spreads narrowed significantly following the exchange rate liberalization on November 3. According to the CBE governor, c.USD 7.5-8.0 bn flowed into the Egyptian banking system in terms of FCY deposits and foreign portfolio investments in EGX and treasuries. Furthermore, the CBE net international reserves rose to USD 24.3 bn by the end of December 2016. Accordingly, we believe that the persistence of such a positive sentiment should help strengthen the EGP to average at EGP 14-15 per USD in FY2016-17.

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WTI: USD 52.42 (+2.04%)
Brent: USD 55.49 (+2.46%)
Natural Gas (Nymex, futures prices) USD 3.20 MMBtu, (-4.87%, February 2017 contract)
Gold: USD 1,204.90 / troy ounce (+0.28%)TASI: 6,875.87 (+0.33%) (YTD: -4.64%)
ADX: 4,704.70 (+0.19%) (YTD: +3.48%)
DFM: 3,690.39 (-0.10%) (YTD: +4.52%)
KSE Weighted Index: 408.22 (+0.09%) (YTD: +7.40%)
QE: 10,941.43 (+0.56%) (YTD: +4.84%)
MSM: 5,734.14 (+0.23%) (YTD: -0.84%)
BB: 1,239.74 (+0.48%) (YTD: +1.58%)

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