What we’re tracking on 18 January 2017
The terms of the USD 12 bn IMF agreement are here, and not a moment too soon, as the local press came close to orchestrating a rain dance for it. It is not surprising that this what was driving the conversation today. The report on the agreement was released through an online presser by IMF Mission Chief for Egypt Chris Jarvis, where he gave a brief on the economic challenges and solutions identified by the report. These would be contingent on the government sticking to the reform agenda. Jarvis took questions on the economy, where he stated that the IMF expects inflation, which rose higher than projected in December, to begin falling in the second quarter of 2017. This will depend on the stabilizing of the exchange rate, which has started to happen, after the EGP depreciated beyond what was expected when the float was enacted. All in all, Jarvis believes that all is well and the government is doing what it’s supposed to. And if it continues, Egypt should receive the second tranche in late April, following a review of progress by an IMF team at the end of February. You can catch the full press conference here (watch; 28:53).
Economists are not so hopeful for this year at least: The government is set to miss its target for economic growth in FY2016-17, a Reuters poll of 14 economists showed. They expect the economy to grow by 3.9% this fiscal year, slow down to 3.5% in FY2017-18, but pick up in FY2018-19 to 4.0%. Analysts expect inflation to hit 13% in FY2016-17, higher than the previous forecast of 11%, and climb to 19.2% in FY2017-18. Price increases should ease from FY2018-19, when inflation rates are set to fall to 13.8%, according to the poll. "With overall business conditions severely depressed, inflation on the rise and an expected slowdown in consumption, we anticipate private sector activity to be constrained in the short term," said Nadene Johnson, economist at NKC. "Medium term growth prospects are slightly more upbeat due to an improvement in private sector activity, easing of inflationary pressures, acceleration in export growth and higher investment," Johnson added.
Also, 2016 was officially the Earth’s warmest since record-keeping began in the 1880s, the World Meteorological Organization announced. Egypt was one of the regions that had a “much warmer than average” year.
Goodbye Barry, hello Donald: Across the pond, as the United States braces itself for The Donald’s inauguration tomorrow, outgoing President Barack Obama used his last press conference to attempt to deliver a message of hope, but apparently could only muster enough optimism to say, “I think we’re going to be OK.” Predicting that he will refrain from giving Trump specific advice once he assumes the presidency, Obama said he is banking on “the intricate details of governing” slowing down “Trump’s bombastic [read: crazy] tendencies,” CNN reports.