The same progress could not be said about Saudi Arabia, as our status went from ‘in a relationship” to “it’s complicated.”The year ended on a low note for the traditionally strong strategic partnership. It wasn’t always so, as the first half of the year saw progress when Saudi shifted its aid strategy by focusing more on investments and soft loans. This became apparent during King Salman’s visit to Egypt in April: Egypt signed a USD 23 bn, five-year fuel supply agreement with Aramco, netted USD 2 bn deposit to the central bank (which went towards securing the IMF loan) as well as USD 2.5 bn in grants, USD 1.5 bn in funding for Sinai development from the Saudi Development Fund, a SAR 60 bn Saudi-Egyptian Investment Fund, with pledges of Saudi private sector investments with the potential to double current levels to USD 60 bn.

Everything seemed on the up and up until the announcement that Egypt had ceded sovereignty to Saudi of the two Red Sea islands of Tiran and Sanafir — a very unpopular decision domestically that sparked rare protests. The Administrative Court blocked the agreement, a decision which the government is appealing.

It all came tumbling down when Aramco unceremoniously announced that it would suspend fuel shipment agreement, sparking speculation at the reason. The suspension, which continues to this day (Egypt considers it terminated), follows Egypt voting on two rival resolutions (one backed by Saudi and the other by Russia) on Syria in the UN Security Council, which could be seen as Egypt prioritizing its relationship with Russia. The rift continues to worsen with Saudi engaging in passive aggressive behavior, solidifying relations with Qatar followed by both countries thumbing their noses at Egyptian sensitivity to GERD, by sending high-profile delegations to visit the dam. While reasons for the rift remains a mystery, it may have more to do with Saudi’s defeats regionally than a specific policy decision by Egypt. Its roll backs in Syria and Yemen may be pushing it to close ranks with allies to ensure loyalty. Egypt’s multipolar politics does not play into that. Reconciliation efforts, spearheaded by the United Arab Emirates, have thus far not led to an end in the rift, and overtures by Iran will not help.