Is the Middle East in the midst of an HIV/AIDS epidemic? The Middle East is seeing an uptick in HIV infections compared to regions that were hardest hit at the height of the epidemic back in ‘80s and ‘90s. “This region is witnessing one of the two fastest-growing epidemics in the world,” Joumana Hermes, an HIV expert for the MENA region at the World Health Organization. While the numbers of people infected with HIV regionally are still comparatively low it has been on the rise over the last five years. According to UNAIDS Global AIDS Update 2016 report, there were around 230,000 HIV-positive people in the region. AIDS-related deaths rose 66% between 2005 and 2013, while globally they decreased by 35%. Deaths in the Middle East rose from 9,500 in 2010 to 12,000 in 2015. New infections rose by 1,000 regionally between 2010 and 2015 while falling by 50,000 between in Eastern and southern Africa.

As was the case in Sub-Saharan Africa during the HIV-crisis, lack of education and cultural stigma may be contributing to its rise in the MENA region. This closing of ranks in traditional and mostly conservative societies creates a problem of data. What are traditionally dubbed as at-risk groups (drug addicts, the LGBT community) are precisely the communities in which most of the data is coming, but health experts warn that expanding the search to the wider community could produce more frightening figures.

By Egypt’s Finance Ministry’s own account, the infection trend is rising, Ahram Gate reports. The ministry’s Human Development report, however, dismisses claims of an epidemic in Egypt with only 0.01% of the population being classified as HIV-infected. The ministry also states that contraceptives, while prevalent, remains a barrier for many, with 40% of families in Egypt not having access or opting not use them. Vice News posits that Egypt is leading the way regionally in terms of acknowledgement and acceptance through what the UN called a landmark court ruling this year that bans discrimination of HIV-positive people in the workplace, but a lot more must be done.