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Monday, 28 November 2016

How will the float affect next year’s IPO pipeline?

How will the float affect next year’s IPO pipeline? Most investment bankers polled by Al Borsa see that the float of the EGP, which has sent trading volumes on the EGX up as much as 3x over pre-float levels, will help IPO activity next year, though they differ on the extent of that growth.

The base case: We’ll see only four IPOs next year, including the listing of state-owned companies, said EFG Hermes co-head of investment banking Mostafa Gad. While the float was good for the EGX, investors will still need to see more done on the ground on the reform front, he added. EFG Hermes is managing the IPOs of Banque du Caire, Nile Air, and an unnamed financial services company, he noted.

A bit more optimistic: Mohamed AlAkhdar, Director of Investment Banking at Beltone, expects two or three major IPOs alongside a spate of smaller-scale listings. He feels that there won’t be as much appetite among foreign investors for IPOs under EGP 500 mn, especially after the float. Beltone will be running four IPOs in 1H16, including the EGP 400 mn listing of MM Group For Industry & International Trade.

Uh… really? Prime Holding Managing Director Mohamed Maher and AT Brokerage’s Mohamed Fathallah see a wave of IPOs coming next year, with the latter projecting 20 offerings.

What does the nation’s IPO pipeline look like? By Al Borsa’s count, nine IPOs on the EGX have been announced. If they go forward in December as some expect, El Farasha for Printing and Packaging and Obour Land will close out the IPO pipeline for 2016, good for a total of five offerings in 2016 alongside Cleopatra Hospitals, Domty and state-owned MOPCO. Our in-house IPO tracker shows 16 companies have either credibly announced this year that they are exploring an IPO in 2017 or beyond, or are in line to be thrown on the auction block by the state should its IPO program go forward. At least a dozen other low-probability candidates have either sought the publicity that goes along with an announcement that they’re mulling an IPO or have been mooted as candidates.

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