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Thursday, 24 November 2016

Will the US Fed hike rates in December?

Is a rate hike in store next month? “The U.S. economy is showing strength in key sectors, offering the Federal Reserve the comfort it has sought to raise short-term interest rates in December,” writes the Wall Street Journal (paywall) this morning, noting that, “Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting, released Wednesday following the usual three-week lag, indicated officials were looking for signs of an improving economy before increasing rates. Since then, the U.S. has seen a steady stream of robust economic news and a brighter consumer outlook in the wake of Donald Trump’s election.” Bloomberg has a nice annotation of the meeting minutes (you’ll want to check that out on your laptop — it’s not terribly mobile-friendly) or reach the minutes yourself on the Fed’s website.

Why do we are about US interest rates, anyway? Not for love of our fellowman, certainly. As we’ve seen over the past year and a half or so, any threat by the Fed to raise rates typically results in flight from emerging markets as some investors are inevitably lured to higher returns in the more certain / stable US market.

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