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Wednesday, 23 November 2016

Outlook for emerging markets in 2017 looks challenging

Don’t expect yesterday’s MSCI Emerging Markets rally to last. That’s the take-home message from the Financial Times’ coverage, with the paper noting that, “The prospects of EM assets still look uncertain, however. ‘We believe 2017 will present a more challenging environment for EM assets,’ said UBS strategist Bhanu Baweja, citing slower economic growth in Asia and a lack of tailwinds in 2016 such as rising property prices in China. Citi said ‘portfolio managers may seek to build precautionary cash balances fearing potential redemptions.’”

The silver lining: Corporate profits in emerging markets look set to improve, the FT notes elsewhere, citing JPMorgan’s senior global economist Joseph Lupton as saying, “We would expect profits, which are quite depressed across emerging markets as a whole, to start to improve. That’s part of our 2017 view.” Does that mean EM are a buy? “We would never say buy [emerging markets] because it’s cheap, because it can stay cheap for a long time. You need a catalyst and [rising profit margins] is it. The relative trade between emerging and developed markets could become more compelling,” says Fabiana Fedeli, senior portfolio manager for EM equities at Dutch asset manager Robeco.

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