EM outlook is good, and can we please stop talking about a social mission for PE in Africa?
Two quick hits and a complaint for you this morning.
EM equities outlook buoyed by stable USD, commodities prices: In an interview that otherwise focuses largely on Asia, Citibank’s Singapore chief nailed it when he notes that while EM are up 15% or so this year, “there’s further space to run” provided the USD doesn’t significantly increase in value and commodities prices continue to appreciate — or at least remain stable at today’s rates. (Watch, run time: 3:08)
We’re liking Capital Economics’ analysis of EM export data, which the Financial Times (paywall) notes suggests that in the past 24 months, the dip owes in very large part to declining commodity prices and not to decreased developed-market appetite for EM manufactured goods. EM exports are up 0.1% in USD terms in August, “the first such increase in two years … [and] a far cry from the year-on-year decline of 15.7% recorded in January.”
The complaint: There’s never going to be real PE interest in Africa until we can stop stalking about it in development terms. To take but one quote from “The missing middle in African private equity” in the FT’s Beyond Brics blog: “Given the dire need to create jobs for mns of young people and the positive outlook for small and medium size companies, the middle-market Africa PE space should be of greater focus for institutional investors and their gatekeepers.” Job creation is often a beautiful side-effect of private equity, but since when was it the mission of private capital?