How to gauge Donald Trump’s chances of winning the US Presidential election? Track the performance of the Mexican Peso and Russian Ruble, Natasha Doff writes for Bloomberg. “The temperature gauge for Trump is the peso,” HSBC’s David Bloom says. “Amundi Asset Management has been selling the Mexican peso and buying the ruble to profit from the prospect of a victory for Republican nominee Donald Trump” — this is the Trump trade. Doff notes that “while the short-peso trade has been popular since the summer, adding the ruble position has given a boost to returns.” There are some skeptics, however, who “say the peso’s slump over the last few months means there’s little room left for it to fall, while a Trump victory may trigger such a broad sell-off in emerging markets that not even the ruble would be spared.”