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Tuesday, 20 September 2016

Will Americans abandon car ownership in favor of autonomous vehicles for hire?

Will consumers largely abandon car ownership in the next ten years in favor of fleets of autonomous vehicles for hire? John Zimmer, president and co-founder of ride-sharing app Lyft, certainly thinks it will in major US cities in the next ten years, and mapped out his vision in a recently-published essay. He deplores how the layout of cities has been warped to accommodate not just cars, but parked cars, noting that “the average vehicle is used only 4% of the time and parked the other 96%.” Think Zimmer’s vision of the future is too rosy, given regulatory opacity, and the recent news that Uber lost an estimated c.USD 1 bn (autoplay video) in 1H16? Well, at least with regard to regulations, the US federal government yesterday just made its strongest endorsement of the long-term safety benefits of autonomous vehicles, with the US Department of Transportation issuing a 15-point safety standard for the design and development of autonomous vehicles (top link opens a pdf download). The guidelines open with the endorsement: “DOT [Department of Transportation] and NHTSA [National Highway Traffic Safety Administration] policy is to facilitate and encourage wherever possible the development and deployment of technologies with the potential to save lives.” (Read The third transportation revolution)

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