We’ve entered a bear market for oil, with prices down 22% since June, the Wall Street Journal says. OPEC’s daily basket price fell under USD 40 a barrel last Thursday for the first time since April, Julian Lee notes, showing that the glut in world oil supply persists. As many analysts have said for months, however, support for oil prices is expected when the full effects of reduced capital expenditure is felt, with Russian oil minister Alexander Novak saying such a balance may be achieved by mid-2017.

Bloomberg Gadfly’s Liam Denning reviews Big Oil’s second quarter, which he says the sector “would definitely like to forget,” with Royal Dutch Shell reporting its lowest quarterly profits since 2005. Worse still, Denning highlights that the cash flow situation across the industry is “abysmal.”

The US Manufacturing PMI and J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI surveys were released on Monday, both recording eight-month highs in July, recording 52.9 and 51.0, respectively. A reading above 50.0 suggests an expansion in the industry. While the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI also reported generally positive results, with a reading of 50.6, marking the first expansion of the sector since February 2015, employment continued to decline and there were “marked increases in input costs and output charges.” Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group is quoted in the statement as saying that the uptick in activity “indicates that the Chinese economy has begun to show signs of stabilizing due to the gradual implementation of proactive fiscal policy. But the pressure on economic growth remains, and supportive fiscal and monetary policies must be continued.”