What we’re tracking on 28 July 2016
Interest rate watch: The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee is due to meet today to discuss rates. Nine of 13 economists polled by Reuters, including EFG Hermes’ Mohamed Abu Basha, see rates being left on hold. Beltone Head of Research Hany Genena, Arqaam Securities economist Reham El Desoki, and HC Securities economist Sara Saada all expect rates to go up at least 50 bps.
“The on-the-run 3-month T-bill yield suggests that the market does not expect a policy rate hike at the upcoming MPC meeting. Nevertheless, with the recent rally in the parallel market USD/EGP rate, associated potential inflationary pressure, and limited tools currently at the CBE’s disposal, a 50 bps policy rate hike seems likely,” HC Securities wrote Enterprise to say.
NO CABINET SHUFFLE: In a statement yesterday after a cabinet-level meeting on the proposed USD 12 bn, three-year IMF assistance program, Prime Minister Sherif Ismail said that there is no cabinet shuffle in the offing, adding that any reports to the contrary are false. Speculation has been growing over the past weeks that a shuffle was on the horizon, with as many as a half-dozen ministers set to leave the cabinet table.