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Tuesday, 26 July 2016

What we’re tracking this week

British delegation in Cairo, Sharm this week to discuss security and economic issues: A five-member British parliamentary delegation arrived in Cairo yesterday and will stay until departing for Sharm El Sheikh on Friday before returning home on Saturday, Ahram Online’s Gamal Essam El Din reported. The All-Party Parliamentary Group on Egypt delegation is led by Sir Gerald Howarth (Twitter | constituency website), a member of parliament for Aldershot.

The US Democratic National Convention (DNC) began yesterday and will run until Thursday. As for how the first day went, let’s just say it was a little chaotic. The New York Times perhaps sums it best with their headline: ‘Democrats’ pursuit of unity falters on first day of convention,’ where Bernie Sanders supporters not only booed Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz (who resigned over a leak of thousands of emails from DNC officials) — Sanders supporters also ended up booing Sanders himself when he urged them to elect Hillary Clinton to stop Trump.

As for the email leak itself, cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike’s initial assessment over a month ago that Russian intelligence agencies were likely behind the breach and the subsequent dissemination of the documents by Wikileaks — perfectly timed to undermine Clinton’s campaign — has gained traction, especially following the publication of Patrick Tucker’s piece for Defense One on Sunday, which we featured as our reading yesterday. An unnamed US official involved in the investigation told Reuters on Monday that the probe into the breach has so far “indicated beyond a reasonable doubt that it originated in Russia.” A DNC staffer researching Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort’s ties to Putin allies in Ukraine is also reportedly having her email account compromised on a daily basis, which her email provider says it suspects is being caused by “state-sponsored actors.”

But Trump won’t win, right? FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, who almost a year ago famously put Trump’s chances of winning the nomination at 2%, says that if the election were held today, Donald Trump would win by a 7 point margin. However, the site’s polls plus forecast model gives Clinton almost a 20-point lead.

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