US jobs recovery may not be flashy, but it’s strong -FiveThirtyEight: US employers added 287,000 jobs in June, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, beating forecasts of 175,000 jobs. FiveThirtyEight’s Ben Casselman thinks the conventional interpretation of the numbers, that the US job market tanked in April and May and is starting to recover in June is incorrect. Rather, he argues “job growth [is] gradually cooling but remaining basically strong.” Casselman also argues that while it is still too early to tell Brexit’s impact on US manufacturing, “the so-called Brexit led to a sharp increase in the value of the [USD], which could hurt US exporters… the decision could also damage the overall global economy, further slowing trade.”

Brexit and Bank of England set tone for markets this week -FT: The FT (paywall) picks up where Casselman’s points on the payroll numbers and Brexit, saying that the positive jobs report has “only intensified the search for yield via bonds and dividend paying shares” in developed markets. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to announce a rate cut on Thursday, and US companies are also expected to report “their fifth straight quarter of year-over-year profit decline — the worst stretch since the aftermath of the financial crisis.”

Oil price outlook continues to remain low: The Baker-Hughes Rig Count showed last week that the number of global rigs is increasing, with the total number of rigs in North America alone increasing to 521, up from 507, according to Yahoo Finance. Along with indications from the US Energy Information Administration reporting that inventories are more or less flat, no recovery in oil prices is expected for the foreseeable future, “with supply and inventories still at significantly higher levels.”