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Sunday, 26 June 2016

Stocks plunge, GBP sinks as Brexit fallout still rings

The UK voted to leave the EU, with the “leave” camp nabbing 51.9% of the vote. Stock markets in London and Europe saw some of their biggest fall in years, with the biggest losers being banks and homebuilders. At one point, the GBP hit a 30-year low. Moody’s downgraded the UK’s long term issuer and debt ratings to negative from stable, with both affirmed at Aa1 following the decision. The UK government estimated that Brexit could cause the British economy to shrink 3.8-7.5% by 2030.

Fallout: Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignationimmediately after the vote, while British member of the EU executive, Financial Services Commissioner Jonathan Hill, resignedon Saturday. Meanwhile Scotland, which largely voted in favor of “remain,” says a second independence referendum is “highly likely,” according to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon on Saturday.

Uncertainty looms: Despite Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty suggesting we may face around two years of uncertainty before the UK can officially detach itself from the EU, the bloc’s foreign ministers are saying they want to make a break as soon as possible to avoid “years of uncertainty [for financial sector workers] and the risk of thousands of job cuts.”

Potential relocation of financial sector workers: Fortune Magazine has an excellent breakdown of which banks are expected to move what number of their jobs outside of London. “HSBC… said it was likely to cut as many as 1,000… PriceWaterhouseCoopers estimates that Brexit could cost between 70k – 100k financial services jobs by 2020.”

What does this mean for us? Risky assets like EMs were the first to go as investors sought a safe haven away from the fallout. While Eastern Europe is widely seen the EM most exposed to long-term repercussions of Brexit, the FT (paywall) writes that Egypt and South Africa “were the non-European countries most exposed to a UK economic decline, with more than 4 per cent of their exports going to the UK,” said Geoff Dennis, strategist at UBS.

Oh, and Egypt may have to negotiate new trade and investment pacts with the UK, which just happens to be the largest non-Arab investor in Egypt.

Bregret: MP David Lammy is urging Parliament to outright ignore the “non-binding referendum” and “stop this madness” as over 2 mn people signed a petition demanding a second referendum, according to the Independent. Several citizens have come out to say that despite voting to leave, they had not expected the immediate economic impact. Others were outraged at UK Independence Party Leader Nigel Farage’s admission that it was a “mistake” for the “leave” campaign’s to claim the GBP 350 mn sent to the EU every week would be funneled to the National Health Service.

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