Brexit is on everyone’s mind this morning as the 23 June referendum approaches. Bloomberg’s Jeff Black writes that while central banks are already priming themselves for the short term, it’s the long term they’re most worried about. “My concern is about the negative feedback loop into the real economy,” said Vincent Juvyns, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Luxembourg. “I’m pretty convinced that there would be a lower growth potential in that case, both for the euro area and the U.K. The probability is that the ECB, for example, would be asked to do more.” EU policy makers are similarly prepared, with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble saying they have safeguards in place to avoid “chaotic developments” should the UK exit the bloc.

Meanwhile, the UK’s share of global M&A activity has sunk to a record low due to the uncertainty, according to the FT (paywall). The volume of deals involving UK targets has sunk almost 70% this year compared to last, with the USD 57.6 bn spent on transactions making up a mere 4% of global M&A. “In a Leave scenario, I think M&A in Europe is going to turn very negative,” said head of Europe, Middle East and Africa M&A at ­Citigroup Wilhelm Schulz. Remaining in the EU, however, could “unleash” a series of agreements, say bankers who spoke to the FT.