Fitch affirms Egypt’s ratings at B with stable outlook
Fitch Ratings affirmed Egypt’s Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at ‘B’ with a Stable Outlook. Fitch says the “ratings balance a high fiscal deficit and general government debt/GDP ratio, low foreign-reserve coverage of imports and recent volatile political history, with low external debt and gradual progress in implementing an economic and fiscal reform programme.” Fitch also thinks Egypt will miss its budget deficit target for FY2015-16, expecting it to record a deficit of 11.6% of GDP for a number of reasons, including: “failure to introduce VAT as planned … the devaluation in March and surging interest payments. It also says the budget deficit target for FY2016-17 of 9.8% of GDP will be missed as well, but expected to be reduced y-o-y to around 11% of GDP. The ratings agency expects GDP growth to undershoot and record 3.6% in FY2016-17. A positive point is that “net external debt will remain just below 7% of GDP, compared with a ‘B’ median of 26.3%… the rating is supported by the absence of a recent history of debt restructuring.”