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Sunday, 29 May 2016

What we’re tracking in the week of 29 May 2016: Sir Suma is visiting, EBRD is holding a seminar on MENA, and OPEC meets on Thursday

EBRD boss Sir Suma Chakrabarti is due in Cairo on Tuesday (31 May) for high-level meetings. Don’t expect loan agreements with the Government of Egypt to be on the agenda, a source in government tells us. EBRD focuses in Egypt on finance, agribusiness, infrastructure, transport and telecoms and has so far committed more than EUR 1.7 bn to 34 investments; 61% of that sum has been netted by the private sector. Sir Suma will speak on “Inclusive Growth: Challenges and Opportunities” at an event hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt on 1 Jun 2016 from 9-10:30am.

On a related note: The EBRD is reportedly considering investing in the Egyptian automotive sector, a source tells Al Borsa, claiming a delegation from the EBRD is currently in Cairo to study the sector and meet with industry players to explore ongoing projects that could drive growth. We have two words for the folks at EBRD: Automotive Directive. The State Information Service, meanwhile, is reporting that Suez Canal Economic Zone Authority chief Ahmed Darwish met on Friday with senior EBRD officials to discuss investment opportunities in the zone.

We’re also on the lookout for USD 2 bn that the UAE is due to be deposit at the Central Bank of Egypt by the end of the month, according to a media report late last week.

Conferences on the agenda this week include:

Shares of Cleopatra Hospital Company are due to start trading on Thursday, 2 June, opening at EGP 9.00, per the price announcement release last week. Check out the company’s offering materials here. It’s Egypt’s second IPO of the year and, heading into the dog days of summer (and with Ramadan due to start 7 June), our money says it’s the last offering we’ll see until August / September, when everyone is back from summer vacation and first-half results are ready.

OPEC meets on Thursday, 2 June — don’t expect a production freeze. Only one of 27 analysts polled by Bloomberg expects a deal to limit oil output when OPEC ministers get together at the end of the week. Why? It seems KSA’s strategy of flooding the market to drum-out high-cost producers may be working, with Bloomberg noting: “By stifling high-cost suppliers, the Saudi approach has now almost eradicated the global oversupply, spurring a price rally of 80 percent since January.” Other signs: Saudi is looking to sell even more oil to the Chinese; Russia is skipping the OPEC summit, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said yesterday (Russia isn’t a member, but had been “consulting” on a possible production curb until Novak and since-ousted Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi were sandbagged by a higher power); and Saudi talks with Iran on the hajj have again collapsed, with the two sides exchanging barbs on the way out the door (Saudi’s punch is here, Iran’s are here and here).

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