TL;DR

Meet your new cabinet (Speed Round)

EGP down 15 piasters yesterday. (Speed Round)

BG wants to sell gas at USD 7 per mmBtu, government only offering USD 5.88 per mmBtu (Speed Round)

NBE has tapped PMorgan Chase and First Gulf Bank to promote Egypt’s local-currency debt market. (Speed Round)

By the Numbers

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The Microfinance Egypt conference is on its second and last day today at the Nile Ritz-Carlton in Cairo.

ON THE HORIZON

Prime Minister Sherif Ismail’s cabinet is presenting its programme to the House of representatives on Sunday, 27 March, according to Al Shorouk.

Future Rail and Metro Egypt is taking place from Tuesday 29 March to Thursday 31 March.

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman is visiting Cairo on 4 April for talks with senior Egyptian officials including President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, according to a statement from the Saudi Embassy in Cairo.

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SPEED ROUND

We have 10 new ministers: Nine ministers in Prime Minister Sherif Ismail’s cabinet were replaced and one new ministry was created to manage state-owned businesses. The new additions to the government also included three deputy finance ministers and a deputy minister of planning. The new ministers are tasked with reducing the budget deficit, developing the tax and customs systems, and increasing government revenues, Prime Minister Sherif Ismail said, according to Al Masry Al Youm. Ismail expects an improved performance from the health and education ministers, who remain in offices despite mounting criticism. Both presented new reform programmes, according to Al Shorouk. The newly established Public Business Sector Ministry will aim to “restart” and “redevelop” state-owned companies to increase state revenues.

• Amr El Garhy is the new finance minister, replacing Hani Dimian. El Garhy was most recently managing director at Qalaa Holdings, where he was the head of the corporate finance and investment review function. Prior to joining Qalaa Holdings, he was vice-chairman and managing director of the National Investment Bank. In his first official statement as minister, El Garhy called for greater cooperation within the ministry to reassess taxation policy to encourage investments (are investment incentives coming back?), expediting reform measures to help bring about the Egypt 2030 plan, and strengthen fiscal discipline, in part through new technology. His appointed deputy finance ministers are:

• Former World Bank economist Ahmed Kouchouk for fiscal policy.
• Long-time civil servant Mohamed Maeet for treasury affairs.
• Former PwC tax partner Amr El Monayer for tax policy.

Meanwhile, Assistant Finance Minister for Institutional Development Amr Badawi intends to resign from the ministry, AMAY reports.

• Dalia Khorshid is the new investment minister, replacing Ashraf Salman. Prior to joining cabinet, Khorshid was group corporate treasurer at OCI NV, which she joined after an eight-year run with Citibank.

• Ashraf El Sharkawy is the minister for the public enterprise sector, a newly created portfolio. El Sharkawy is the former chairman of the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority and was a board member of Banque Misr. In his first public statement post-appointment, El Sharkawy said that details of the plan to restructure public sector companies will be announced when the prime minister presents the full national agenda to parliament on Sunday.

• Mohamed Yehia Rashed is the new tourism minister, replacing Hisham Zaazou. Rashed is the CEO of the Hotel and Tourism Sector of Al Kharafi Group. He also worked as a manager at Marriott hotels in a number of European cities.

• Sherif Fathi is the new civil aviation minister, replacing Hossam Kamal. Fathi was most recently chairman of EgyptAir Holding, a role to which he was appointed in August 2015. Fathi was the regional manager for KLM and Northwest Airlines in several countries and also a MENA regional director for the International Air Transport Association. He has vowed to continue upgrading and expanding Egypt’s airports and to upgrade the national air traffic control system, Al Mal reports.

• Mohamed Hossam Abdel Rehim is the new justice minister, replacing Ahmed El Zend. Abdel Rehim is the former head of the Court of Cassation and Supreme Judicial Council.

• Galal Saeed is the new transport minister, replacing Saad El Geyoushi. Saeed is the governor of Cairo and former transport minister under former Prime Minister Kamal El Ganzouri in 2012.

• Mohamed Abdel Aati is the new irrigation and water resources minister, replacing Hossam El Moghazy. Abdel Aati is former head of Nile water at the ministry and headed the Egyptian delegation in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam negotiations with Ethiopia. In his first statement has minister, Abdel Aati stated that only 700k feddans of the 1.5 mn feddan project will be used for agriculture by 2030, while the remaining land will be used to for housing and industrial development to account for the population boom projected for that timeframe, AMAY reports. He’s also back the government’s plan to raise the price of water, AMAY notes.

• Khaled El Enany Ezz is the new antiquities minister, replacing Mamdouh El Damaty. El Enany is the general director of the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization and an associate scientific researcher at the French Institute for Oriental Archaeology. His first media statement assured that the National Museum for Egyptian Civilization will be partially opened during 2016, Al Mal reports.

• Mohamed Saafan is the new manpower minister, replacing Gamal Serour. Saafan is the former head of the General Trade Union for Petroleum Workers. He also served as the deputy head of the Egyptian Trade Union Federation.

• Nihal El Megharbel was appointed deputy planning minister for monitoring. El Megharbel is the first assistant to the Planning Minister.

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Is the cabinet shuffle just a move to buy time? Private-sector intelligence outfit Stratfor thinks so. “Like Egypt’s reliance on foreign aid to subsidize domestic programs, the change is less a solution than a stopgap measure. It may protect the government’s public image for now, but it will not alleviate the sense of uncertainty pervading Egyptian markets.” Essentially, the move simply shifts the blame onto the shoulders of a few ‘poorly performing’ ministers, “diverting responsibility from the military,” the piece goes on to say. “The country’s trade imbalance, undue reliance on foreign aid and low foreign currency reserves all require more comprehensive solutions.”

What’s going on with the EGP? Exchange bureaux continue to hike the price of the USD on the parallel market. Al Borsa says the EGP tumbled 15 piasters to EGP 9.85 against the USD, while Al Mal also says it fell 15 piasters, but says it found the USD changing hands for between EGP 9.70 to 9.75. The newspapers quote unnamed currency traders as saying there’s just not enough liquidity in the market despite there having been demand at Tuesday’s Central Bank of Egypt auction for only USD 104.5 mn of the USD 120 mn on offer at EGP 8.78 to the USD.

BG wants to sell gas at USD 7 per mmBtu, government only offering USD 5.88 per mmBtu: Daily News Egypt provided a bit more clarity on the reported dispute between BG Group and the Egyptian government, saying the negotiations center around pricing. Phase 9B holds about 40% as much gas as phase 9A and involves drilling at deeper depths, “which reduces the production of the project, and therefore it was asked that the price be increased to recover the costs during the production period,” which also needs to be extended, an EGPC source says. There is an indication that BG Group could agree to a price of USD 5.88 per mmBtu only if the government commits to paying USD 1 bn of the back-dues the international outfit is owed. Either way, it appears that the preset production target will certainly be missed, with the source noting that if an agreement is reached, work will start with connecting 9B wells in 4Q2017 to have the project “fully connected” by 2H2018.

The National Bank of Egypt approached JPMorgan Chase and First Gulf Bank (FGB) to attract foreign investors to Egypt’s local-currency debt market following the devaluation of the EGP, Bloomberg reports. NBE’s efforts centered around pitching international institutions on its USD call options for hedging foreign-exchange risk. The options, sold at a 4.75% premium for one-year contracts, allow investors to convert EGP to USD at the same rate at which they are sold. It is “too early to talk about finalized deals, but there is a lot of interest in the product,” NBE’s CFO says.

Egypt is “one step closer to becoming regional food security leader,” Blumberg Grain says. Blumberg Grain is working with the Egyptian government on the Shouna Development Project, an effort involving the Supply Ministry to “rapidly” deploy 93 Blumberg Grain Aggregation and Processing Centers. The centers replace “dilapidated facilities, known in Egypt as shounas, which are used to store the country’s locally grown wheat.” The project, the first phase of which is expected to be completed on time and budget, will reduce post-harvest loss of locally grown wheat to 5% from about 40% today and cut foreign imports. Once all 350 systems are installed, government savings are expected to reach more than USD 600 mn. All 93 of the centers in the first phase are expected to be completed by April’s end. An excerpt from the opening of the Shouna Development Project can be watched here (run time 03:11).

EFG Hermes reported a FY2015 net profit after tax and minority rights of EGP 461 mn versus EGP 538 mn a year earlier, according to a company statement. Total operating revenues hit EGP 2,616 mn during the year. “EFG Hermes delivered a strong operational performance in 2015, advising on and executing a run of high-profile equity capital transactions, preserving its position as the region’s largest brokerage, launching new asset management funds, and building on our European infrastructure private equity business,” said EFG Hermes Holding Chief Executive Officer Karim Awad.

CORRECTION- The New and Renewable Energy authority is allocated 8 square kilometres to 10 companies to build solar power plant. The area stated in yesterday’s report was incorrect.

THE MACRO PICTURE

Credit Suisse Group AG is hogging all the headlines this morning after it announced that it was slashing 2,000 jobs as CEO Tidjane Thiam forecast another loss in the first quarter, Bloomberg reports. “This is bad on several levels. For one, it highlights some pretty poor risk management on the part of senior officers at the Swiss bank. But perhaps more important from a market standpoint, it exposes a trap in the current credit market: Traders are getting increasingly punished for trying to sell unpopular debt at the wrong time,” writes Lisa Abramowicz for Bloomberg Gadfly.

Meanwhile, PIMCO has cut its global growth outlook in 2016, saying central-bank measures to stimulate the economy have become increasingly ineffective, Bloomberg writes. GDP will expand globally 2-2.5% in 2016, down from a December forecast of 2.6%, according to a report issued on Wednesday. The story is also making headlines in the domestic press. Meanwhile, Danièle Nouy, the head of the ECB’s banking wing, dismissed bank complaints that negative rates are hurting profitability, saying they still had “room for maneuver” and that they should be “more efficient,” according to the FT (paywall).

And on the other side of the world: A debate in the Fed has broken out over inflation, with several policymakers looking to put an interest rate increase on the docket as early as next month, according to the Financial Times. President of the Philadelphia Fed Patrick Harker called on Tuesday for the institution to “get on with” rate increases. John Williams, who heads the San Francisco Fed, said he was “encouraged by the rise in underlying inflation,” adding that the economy was set to “power ahead.” Dennis Lockhart of the Atlanta Fed said an April move should be considered,, while Esther George of the Kansas City Fed voted for an increase in March. The chatter is already roiling global markets.

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Foreign coverage on Egypt is centered around the cabinet shuffle, with sources from the WSJ, to The National, to Haaretz covering the moves. Sputnik, however, has a different hook. MP Mahmud Badr tells the paper that the creation of a Public Business Sector Ministry was in response to repeated pleas for the government to restore several idle industrial facilities. “The factories built with Soviet support, during the time of leader Gamal Abdel Nasser, will once again come after returning to the public sector… It is an important step in Egypt’s reconstruction,” Badr says.

Yes, an IMF loan is an attractive notion, but is Egypt willing to make the changes it needs to clinch the deal? “The IMF would want to make sure Egypt is getting its twin deficits under control: the budget deficit; and the balance of payments deficit,” writes veteran financial writer Patrick Werr for The National. Even though the EGP valuation was a positive step, the CBE “did little to reassure the market it was serious about flexibility,” the government is still dithering on VAT legislation, and full on subsidy reform seems just out of reach. “Unless the government uncharacteristically reverses course and implements serious reforms, there seems little chance of any agreement with the IMF.”

The Working Group on Egypt sent a letter (pdf) to US President Barack Obama on Wednesday calling on him to directly speak with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi on the “accelerating crackdown on human rights, including recent moves to prosecute civil society organizations,” the letter reads. The letter is sent a day ahead of an expected court ruling set to determine if the assets of investigative journalist Hossam Baghat, as well as those of human rights activist and lawyer Gamal Eid, will be frozen. The Working Group on Egypt is comprised of representatives from liberal think tanks and human rights organizations.

Human rights groups are up in arms: The recent summoning, freezing funds, and placing travel bans on activists are “steps that indicate a five-year-old investigation into the funding and registration of independent human rights groups could soon result in criminal charges, 14 international organizations said today,” reports Human Rights Watch. “Instead of shutting down the last vestiges of civil society, Egypt should welcome scrutiny of its human rights record and take on board the constructive criticisms of local NGOs. The authorities should engage in an open and genuine dialogue with its rights movement,” says Michel Tubiana, President of EuroMed Rights, reports Amnesty International. Egypt, which was the second worst jailer of journalists worldwide in 2015, according to CPJ‘s prison census, has issued an order prohibiting independent media coverage of the trial.

WORTH READING

The Mastermind, Episode 2: I’m Your Boss Now — part 2 in a series on “real life Bond villain” Paul Le Roux.

IMAGE OF THE DAY

A Sprawling Tapestry’s Surreal Visions of Egypt. Egyptian-Lebanese artist Lara Baladi’s ‘Oum el Dounia’ is a “portrait of Egypt built on coded visuals.” It is currently on view at the Arthur M. Sackler Gallery.

DIPLOMACY + FOREIGN TRADE

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met with Vodafone CEO Vittorio Colao yesterday, according to an Ittihadiya statement. Al Masry Al Youm reports that Vodafone is looking to increase its investments in Egypt and use it as a platform to launch in other markets, says Colao.

Criticism from Germany: The German Federal Foreign Office picked up on news of travel bans, bank account freezes, and investigations against human rights activists in Egypt. These steps not only contravene international human rights standards, but also the Egyptian Constitution, the statement said.

A delegation from the Saudi Fund for Development is set to visit Cairo next week to prepare the final arrangements for Saudi King Salman’s visit in April, International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr tells Al Borsa. El Sisi and Salman are expected to sign a number of development and investment agreements.

Indonesian exporters are being advised to “improve their competitive edge and or explore new markets” after Egypt’s plans to cut imports, The Jakarta Post reported. “It should be a concern for Indonesian exporters, they should ensure products to be exported to Egypt do not experience the barriers,” Indonesia’s Trade Ministry’s director general for foreign trade negotiations Iman Pambagyo said.

A delegation from the Transport Ministry arrived in Poland on a two-day visit to look at railway car factories after a number of Polish companies expressed interest in building metro car factories in Egypt, Al Borsa reports. The trip coincides with a visit by Polish construction and materials companies Pietrucha and ViaCon to Egypt to explore possible investments. The ministry also received an offer from an unnamed Finnish company to manufacture fare gates for metro stations, according to a ministry statement issued on Wednesday. The statement added that outgoing Transport Minister Saad El Geyoushi met with the Canadian ambassador to convince Canadian companies to switch financing for the October-Warraq monorail project to a direct investment instead of a loan.

ENERGY

Saudi begins exporting petroleum products to Egypt for five years in April
Saudi Arabia will begin supplying Egypt with petroleum products for five years commencing in April, according to agreements signed earlier this week, government sources tell Al Borsa. Egypt could not reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia on a set price for the shipments, the source adds, expecting the total sum of the five years to reach SAR 30 bn if the oil slump continues. (Read in Arabic)

EGAS intends to launch tender to import 100 LNG shipments
EGAS intends to launch a tender during in the second half of 2016 to import more than 100 shipments of LNG to operate two gas plants in Ain Sokhna, according to an unnamed company source, Al Shorouk reports. EGAS also intends to launch a tender for a third gas plant with a production capacity of more than 600 mn cubic feet of gas per day. Egypt has imported more than 54,000 LNG shipments worth USD 1.4 bn since last December, in addition to agreeing with nine international suppliers to import LNG, according to previous statements made by Petroleum Ministry Spokesperson Hamdy Abdel Aziz. (Read in Arabic)

INFRASTRUCTURE

National Authority for Tunnels requests French grant to complete Fifth Metro Line feasibility study
The National Authority for Tunnels has requested a French grant to complete the feasibility studies for the Fifth Metro Line, says authority head Tarek Gamaleldin. The Third Metro Line will be completed by mid-2018, he adds. Additionally, the authority has requested facilitated loans from the French Ambassador André Parant, he adds. The Fifth Metro Line will run from Nasr City through Heliopolis, terminating in Helmeyet El Zatoun. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS + COMMODITIES

Supply minister denies that bread card system is ineffectual
Egypt is close to expunging graft in its strategic sector, says Supply Minister Khaled Hanafi,  as he defends Egypt’s management of the system against criticisms of corruption that have emerged in recent weeks, Reuters reports. The wire had talked to several players in the industry last week who said the smart card system had simply bred more corruption. Hanafy for his part, disagrees, saying the system is almost “foolproof” and that the ministry had curbed corruption in contrast to the past, when he says 50% of Egypt’s flour supply was stolen.

Poultry Division calls for Agriculture Ministry to allow duck imports
The Poultry Division at the Cairo Chamber of Commerce has called on the Agriculture Ministry to allow importing ducks after approval from the ministry’s scientific committee. The ministry had banned French poultry last year following reports of an avian flu outbreak. France is Egypt’s main poultry supplier, says division head Aboul Fotouh Mabrouk, noting that allowing imports will help stabilize meat prices and reduce poultry prices ahead of the Ramadan season. (Read in Arabic)

Food Industries Holding Co. signs agreement with Kazyon for 200 food trucks
The Food Industries Holding Company signed a cooperation protocol with hard-discount chain Kazyon that would see the latter provide the Food Industries Holding Company with 200 trucks to transport its goods throughout Egypt, Al Mal reports. The moves comes a few days after the an agreement between Kazyon and the Internal Trade Development Authority was signed to open 65 outlets in 16 governorates this year.

MANUFACTURING

Division of Bicycle Importers studies building EGP 350 mn factory
The Division of Bicycle Importers (who knew there was such a thing?) at the Cairo Chamber of Commerce is studying building a factory with investments ranging between EGP 300-400 mn, according to division head Gamal Abdel Moaty. The division aims to establish a joint stock company that includes foreign partners. The decision to build a factory follows import restrictions imposed by the Trade and Industry Ministry on the sector, he adds. The project is contingent on the government providing assurances that they won’t later remove the restrictions threatening the domestic market, said Abdel Moaty. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE + HOUSING

World Bank to collaborate with Housing Ministry on developing informal settlements
Housing Minister Mostafa Madbouli agreed with Vice President of the World Bank for MENA Hafez Ghanem to collaborate on developing informal settlements, Al Shorouk reports, with the World Bank set to advise the Housing Ministry on its overall vision for settlement renovations. During a meeting on Wednesday, Madbouli presented Ghanem and a World Bank delegation with the ministry’s most pressing projects, including its social housing program. (Read in Arabic)

CBE initiative to revitalize real estate sector hits EGP 1.9 bn
The value of funds allocated to revitalize the real estate sector under the CBE’s initiative has reached EGP 1.9 bn, including a Mortgage Finance Fund fund worth EGP 513 mn, since its launch in April 2014, Al Borsa reports. The initiative, which was originally set at EGP 10 bn but later doubled to EGP 20 bn, gives banks a discount on mortgage prices for the next 20 years to be able to extend loans at deducted annual earnings of 7% for lower-income citizens and 8% for middle-income citizens, according to DNE.

TOURISM

Chamber of Tourism Companies signs cooperation protocol with Kuwaiti Tourism Ministry
The Chamber of Tourism Companies and Agencies has signed a cooperation protocol with the Kuwaiti Tourism Ministry to increase tourism between both countries through promotional prices and joint tour packages. Egypt will be the greatest beneficiary as Cairo is a tourism centre to attract visits from the Kuwaiti people, head of Arab tourism at the Egyptian Federation of Chambers of Tourism Nasser Turk says. Arab influx to Egypt amounted to 20% of incoming tourists before the 25 January revolution, this number has gone down to less than 15% over the past five years, according to the Tourism Ministry. (Read)

Unified tourism law in the works, says MP
In cooperation with the Free Egyptians Party, MP Amr Sedky is reportedly working on unifying laws and administrative decisions that govern tourism activity into a single law, which he believes is key to solving the sector’s problems, DNE reports. The various authorities and legislation hinder sector activity, said Sedky, who is cooperating with public and private bodies, such as the Egyptian Tourism Federation, businessmen associations, and the General Syndicate for Tourism and Hotels, to bring a single law to fruition. (Read)

EgyptAir hindering domestic tourism to Marsa Alam?
EgyptAir pays 70% less than other airlines at the Marsa Alam airport for on-ground service fees, tourism sector sources tell Daily News Egypt. This hinders other airlines from booking cheap flights to the region, the source adds. Despite the price reduction, EgyptAir still does not offer enough incentive for domestic tourism to the Red Sea, an official from the Tourism Investors Association says. “Egyptians cannot be expected to visit the region if ticket prices reach EGP 2,000,” the source says. (Read)

AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION

Shipping companies begin petitioning new transport minister over hike in port service fees
Shipping companies have already begun petitioning new Transport Minister Galal Saeed to reverse a ministry decision to raise port services fees by 300%, Al Borsa reports. The decision, which came into effect last September, had caused an uproar in the sector, prompting outgoing Transport Minister Saad El Geyoushy to temporarily halt the hike pending an inquiry by a special committee. (Read in Arabic)

BANKING + FINANCE

African Development Bank studies USD 150 mn funding for six solar projects
The African Development Bank (AfDB) is studying USD 150 mn in financing for six solar power projects under the feed-in-tariff system, sources tell Al Borsa. Each company submitted a feasibility study to build a 50 MW plant, the source adds, bringing the total to 300 MW. AfDB is looking to ink the final agreement for a USD 100 mn loan to finance the Damanhour power station, the source added. (Read in Arabic)

CBE instructs banks to count unused loans of 50 biggest clients in concentration risk guidelines
The CBE issued a clarification notice (pdf) instructing banks to count the loan portfolio of their 50 biggest clients by utilized portions of their credit facilities and not the authorized amount. The notice is a follow up to concentration risk guidelines issued in January limiting loans to a bank’s 50 biggest clients to 50% of the bank’s overall loan portfolio.

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

CBE calls on reducing imports, pumping FX into the official market
The CBE has asked Egyptian investors to reduce imports and direct their foreign currency holdings towards the “legal channels,” Al Shorouk reported. CBE Governor Tarek Amer reportedly also called on investors to limit imports and “deepen” Egyptian industry. (Read in Arabic)

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Al-Monitor interviewed the person working to enforce a ban on the niqab in Egyptian government departments, schools, and hospitals affiliated with the Health Ministry, as well as service and sovereign ministries “in order to prevent any attempts to stir confusion and chaos by carrying out terrorist acts.”

New York City real estate owner and Israel-Egypt peace broker Leon Charney has passed away at 77, Bloomberg writes. Charney described himself as a ‘behind-the-scenes player’ and unofficial adviser to US President Jimmy Carter during negotiations that led to the Camp David Accords.

CALENDAR

23-24 March 2016 (Wednesday-Thursday): Microfinance Egypt, Nile Ritz-Carlton, Cairo.

29-31 March 2016 (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Rail and Metro Egypt, Cairo.

04 April 2016: Saudi Arabia’s King Salman visits Cairo.

07-10 April 2016 (Thursday-Sunday): Cityscape Egypt Conference, Cairo International Convention Centre, Cairo

13-16 April 2016 (Wednesday-Saturday): Cafex, Cairo.

17 April 2016: German economic delegation visits Cairo.

25 April 2016 (Monday): Sinai Liberation Day (national holiday)

26-28 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arabian Hotel Investment Conference, The Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

01 May (Sunday): Easter Holiday / Labour Day (national holiday)

02 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim (national holiday)

02-03 May (Monday-Tuesday): The Middle East Investment Summit 2016, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

10 May (Tuesday): Business News Foundation’s Third Annual Energy Conference: Energy and Sustainable Development, InterContinental Hotel Citystars Cairo. Register here.

25-26 May (Wednesday-Thursday): The Middle East and North Africa Solar Conference and Expo MENASOL 2016, Hyatt Regency, Dubai.

06 October (Thursday): Armed Forces Day (national holiday)

27 November 2016 (Sunday): 2016 Cairo ICT Conference Group

04-06 December 2016 (Sunday-Tuesday): Solar-Tec Conference, Cairo International Convention Centre, Cairo