Sunday, 13 December 2015

Ismail launches GCC charm offensive

TL;DR

Prime minister to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman to pitch investments as Egypt launches GCC charm offensive (What We’re Tracking Today)

Gearing up for an exceptionally busy news week with two interest rate decisions (What We’re Tracking This Week, Speed Round)

We’re getting sukuks, covered bonds and charitable investment funds as part of amendments to the Capital Market Act (Speed Round)

The VAT has been declared constitutional, but appears unlikely to be implemented by the year-end deadline (Speed Round)

Headline inflation spikes to 11.08% in November from 9.7% a month earlier on rising food prices (Speed Round)

Nearly 200 countries reach climate agreement in Paris, but is it just B.S.? (Speed Round)

We hate to say we told you so, but: #ThisIsEgypt campaign backfires (Egypt in the News)

Israel should offer Egypt up to 20 years to pay IEC compensation –expert (Energy)

Social security program strengthened by USD 400 mn in funding from EBRD (Egypt Politics + Economics)

500 Startups announces USD 30 mn fund for MENA startups (On Your Way Out)

By the Numbers + CBE looks to persuade bank chiefs to support de-dollarization, take a hit on NIMs

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

To kick off what looks set to be a very busy news week, it seems something is afoot with Saudi Arabia. Bloomberg cites an unnamed government official as confirming what we reported last week: That the Ismail government is planning talks with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE to secure more aid and investment. The talks will focus on “‘areas of cooperation’ including investments, development aid and possible foreign-exchange deposits at the central bank, as well the supply of oil and non-oil products.” The official did not say when the talks will take place, but a follow-on story suggests it will be this week. Prime Minister Sherif Ismail will directly pitch projects to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman when the latter visits Cairo sometime this week, Bloomberg reports, citing a Cabinet statement, although the exact day of his arrival is unclear. The Bloomberg piece is brief, with Ahmed Feteha and Abdel Latif Wahba noting, “The talks signal that Egypt’s Gulf Arab allies remain committed to support it even as the plunge in oil prices and the war in Yemen strain their public finances.”

Are we about to have another bombing campaign on our western border? The U.S. is positioning high-level talks in Rome as a bid to form a “unity government” in Libya, while the European press would have you believe it’s a step toward a new shooting match. The New York Times notes that Kerry will co-chair a gathering today with the goal of helping “Libya form a unified government and end years of internal fighting, and address a growing Islamic State threat.” Under a banner headline that reads “War with Isis: Western countries move towards military action in Libya,” the U.K.’s Independent reports that “Libyan Jihadists could be the next target for British military action after French Prime Minister Manuel Valls called on Friday for international efforts to extend into the North African country. ‘We are at war, we have an enemy, Daesh, that we must fight and crush in Syria, in Iraq and soon in Libya too.’” Also worth reading this morning: Heba Saleh’s backgrounder for the Financial Times (paywall): “What is at stake in Libya talks?

The RiseUp Entrepreneurship and Innovation Summit 2015 ends today at the Greek Campus with a packed agenda. Also: Cairo ICT 2015 kicks off today.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

Also on the agenda for what looks set to be a very busy week:

  • Monday: The central bank will issue USD 1.1 bn in treasury bills — by our math, the first time the CBE has issued USD-denominated T-bills since 2012. Also: Runoffs for 13 seats in four electoral districts will take place, including two in Beni Suef and one each in Beheira and Alexandria;
  • Tuesday: The U.S. Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting at which it’s widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time since June 2006;
  • Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates;
  • Saturday: Egypt will ink a USD 1.5 bn loan agreement with the World Bank. The Ismail government hopes to draw down as much as USD 1 bn of the facility before year’s end.

ON THE HORIZON

As we have previously noted: The only thing worse than having a House of Representatives is not having one: The first session of the newly-elected parliament will apparently take place before the end of this year.

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Naguib Sawiris rang up Lamis El Hadidy’s “Hona Al Assema” on CBC to cheer the Ismail government’s decision to create a cabinet-level committee to resolve investment disputes, saying the move was overdue. He also called the idea that his Misriyeen Al Ahrar party would join the Support the State Coalition “absurd.” “The idea of such a coalition is more harmful than beneficial,” Sawiris asserted.

Pharos chairman Dr. Mohamed Taymour, wearing his hat as president of the Egyptian Capital Market Association (ECMA), also rang-up Lamis to express his shock of the lack representation from the finance industry on the committee. Similarly, Mohamed Al-Amin, owner of the channel on which Lamis’s show airs and head of the Chamber of Audiovisual Media Industry (CAMI), called to say he was surprised to learn of the formation of the new investors committee, claiming that it would have been beneficial to choose representatives of each sector. “I’m part of the committee, but I only learned of the decision to form the committee through media sources,” Amin claimed.

El Hadidy then went on a mini-rant after journalist Mohamed Fouda and businessman Ayman El Gameel testified at the corruption trial of former Agriculture Minister Salah Helal: “If Fouda and Gameel’s words are confirmed in this alleged case, it shows that corruption doesn’t just occur with ministers, it occurs with low-level employees,” El Hadidy said. “Corruption is widening.” (Both Fouda and El Gameel face charges in the same case as Helal; El Gameel is alleged to have used Fouda to facilitate bribes paid to Helal.)

Amr Adeeb dedicated most of Al Qahera Al Youm on Orbit to a rant about Al Jazeera, sparked by Foreign Minister Sameh Shourky’s decision to remove the channel’s microphone in a press conference on Saturday. “Shourky’s simple act has a profound meaning behind it,” Adeeb asserted. “We should not have a microphone of a TV channel that wants to destroy my country.”  According to Adeeb, Al Jazeera and Qatar strive to “target Egyptian citizens and the Egyptian state.” Adeeb directly addressed Qatari emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani: “Tamim, you’re committing criminal acts against the Egyptian people every day.”

In the second part of the show, Adeeb interviewed former Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit. In addition to a solid discussion of current affairs, the two talked through the Hosni Mubarak era, including Gamal Mubarak’s potential rise to Egypt’s presidency and the political implications that move would have had on the region.

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SPEED ROUND
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Sukuk, covered bonds, and charitable investment funds will be enshrined into law as part of pending amendments to the Capital Markets Act, according to Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) chief Sherif Samy. His statement was meant to clarify one made by Investment Minister Ashraf Salman, which revealed plans to introduce new financial instruments geared towards both individual and institutional investors in a bid to grow capital markets. Other amendments to the Capital Markets Act will change how buy offers are made, Samy said, according to Al Mal. Samy said in June that he would “introduce covered bonds and non-rated bonds to expand financing options for real estate developers and small- and medium-sized enterprises,” Reuters reported at the time, noting that “covered bonds are supported by cash flows from mortgages or public sector loans with an underlying asset pool that provides additional credit cover beyond the standard corporate bond. Non-rated bonds are securities that have not received a credit rating.”

Salman also discussed pushing investment in energy, logistics, housing, and petrochemicals at a workshop organized by the Italian Trade Agency in Rome, saying the government is targeting growth in the 6-7% range by 2019.

The proposed VAT legislation is constitutional, but some aspects of it are not above challenge, the Legislative Department of the State Council has ruled, saying it has sent recommendations to the Prime Minister’s Office and the Finance Ministry. Not all financial services will be exempted from the VAT, with “commercial activities by banks” being subject to the tax, according to government sources speaking to Al Borsa. The source did not specify what is exactly is meant by “commercial activities.” The source did, however, confirm statements by the head of the Tax Authority that said food staples, healthcare, consumer banking and insurance would be exempt from the VAT. Approval by the Council of State is a prerequisite before a law is passed. The Finance Ministry has made statements counting on the value-added tax being in force by the next state fiscal year, according to reports in the domestic press, suggesting the early deadline of “end of 2015” has been pushed back.

Headline inflation jumped to 11.08% in November from 9.7% a month earlier, driven by increased food prices, Reuters reported. Core inflation also rose in November, registering 7.44%, up from 6.26% in October. The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet this Thursday to decide on the overnight interest rates that currently stand 8.75% for deposits and 9.75% for lending.

Speaking of the Monetary Policy Committee, Reuters’ Asma Alsharif says it’s too hard to call which way the MPC will go when it meets on Thursday. “Some economists say rates need to rise to bolster the Egyptian pound and curb near double-digit inflation in a country where millions live hand to mouth. Pressure to raise could intensify if the Federal Reserve lifts U.S. interest rates on Dec. 16, as expected. But Egypt’s lending and deposit rates are already … An increase would further hit investment and economic growth. It would also be expensive for the government — debt servicing accounted for 22 percent of spending last year.”

Government forms joint committee to improve investment climate: Prime Minister Sherif Ismail issued a decree forming a committee to address investors’ concerns and improve the investment climate in Egypt. The committee will be headed by Ismail himself and, besides including a number of ministers, will also have a number of businesspeople as well as the CBE governor as members. Amongst those admitted to the committee are businessmen Naguib Sawiris, Mohamed Farid Khamis, Mansour Amer, and Mohamed El Sewedy. (Read in Arabic)

NREA denies feed-in tariff projects in Aswan face security threat: Authorities in Aswan have provided more than sufficient security for feed-in tariff solar projects in the region of Benban, New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) chief Mohamed El Sobky told Al Borsa. The Arabic-language daily had run earlier a story (since removed from its website) detailing complaints by companies operating in the area that their facilities have been under attack. Al Borsa replaced the story with a statement from El Sobky, which denied that any complaints or attacks had taken place, adding that a delegation from NREA had visited the area on Saturday and was well-received. The Electricity Ministry issued a directive over the summer ‘banning’ media coverage of stories on the ministry that ran without its prior approval.

If you’re wondering what’s going on with the ‘New Administrative Capital’ since Mohamed Alabbar’s Capital City Partners backed out, you’re not alone. Lin Noueihed and Michael Georgy from Reuters have dug into the story and spoke with Minister of Housing Mustafa Madbouly, who explained that “the government will set up a wholly-owned company to lead the venture and allocate specific projects to private developers from the Gulf and elsewhere, which may include Alabbar’s Capital City Partners.” The focus going forward will be on a much smaller phase one, apparently with Chinese participation, as we’ve previously noted. Read: “Eyeing rapid results, Egypt takes charge of building new capital

Nine members of police force face trial in Luxor case, two officers jailed in beating death of lawyer: “A Cairo court convicted two officers of torture and murder, sentencing each to five years in jail on Saturday in the killing of a detained lawyer, the latest in a government crackdown on police officers accused of brutality,” the AP reports. In a separate ruling on Thursday, nine police officers including three lieutenants and a captain have been bound over for trial on charges they beat to death a 47-year-old man in Luxor.

Messing with Russia will cost Turkey up to 0.7% of its GDP growth, the EBRD’s economists estimate. If Russian sanctions on Turkey persist, Turkey’s GDP growth will fall by 0.3-0.7% in 2016, “a non-negligible, but not major,” impact. Most of the impact will be related to tourism and will occur around mid-2016. The impact on Russia’s economy will be limited, the EBRD expects. Russia had slapped Turkey with a ban on imports of certain foodstuffs, as well as certain works and services, among many other one-side sanctions.

COP21: 195 states formally adopted the Paris Agreement (pdf) on Saturday, with the UN Secretary-General tasked with convening a signature ceremony on 22 April 2016. Following the US-French dispute over the agreement being legally binding, the final document is a mix of both voluntary and legally binding provisions — but even the supposedly binding articles are left ambiguous and undefined as to the details of their execution. Other key points of contention that arose during talks were the developed world’s contribution to developing states to assist in combatting climate change. As head of the African committee, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi had called for a carbon emissions reduction that targeted an average global temperature increase of no more than 1.5° C, as well as USD 100 bn in funding per year for Africa alone in climate financing from developed states. The final outcome with regard to the above points fell short of those ambitions, but at the very least created a framework for further commitments. The main outcomes of the agreement:

  • Global average temperature goal: Less than 2 °C rise, with an eventual aim of attempting to get it below 1.5 °C.
  • Financing: USD 100 bn in public and private spending from the developed world to developing states per year for climate change adaptation and reduction, however details of distribution and accountability are absent.
  • Legality: While elements of the structure of the agreement are binding, such as the commitment on countries to submit their own targets and plans to achieve the stated goals of the agreement, there are no enforcement mechanisms on such targets.

For some grumpy analysis of the agreement, The Guardian sat down with former NASA scientist James Hansen, who Oliver Milman describes as the “father of global awareness of climate change,” and who argues that real change will only happen when emissions are taxed everywhere. On the COP21, Hansen says: “It’s a fraud really, a fake… It’s just bullshit for them to say: ‘We’ll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.’ It’s just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.”

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

The Egypt Tourism Authority launched its #ThisisEgypt promotional campaign video on Thursday, aimed primarily at a domestic tourists, while at the same time encouraging Egyptians to share images and videos on social media under the hashtag #ThisIsEgypt to help reach a global audience. (Watch, running time: 1:33)

The video is beautifully made, but remember our warning back on on 5 October? We suggested at the time: “It’s a nice idea in theory, but in practice could easily spin out of control and be hijacked by an army of internet trolls the likes of which the world has never seen.” Here you go:

  • Egyptians hijack govt tourism hashtag to lash at state. (AP)
  • #ThisIsEgypt tourism campaign goes awry. (CTV News)
  • Users repurpose Egyptian government’s tourism hashtag to voice dissent (Digital Trends, video on autoplay)
  • An Egyptian tourism campaign proclaimed #ThisIsEgypt. It backfired. (The Washington Post)

If you try searching under the hashtag #ThisIsEgypt, you’ll mostly find images of Egypt’s ancient sites and underwater scuba diving shots mixed interspersed with images of civil unrest and clashes with police.

Freedom of expression in the spotlight: The Guardian notes that bestselling author Alaa Al-Aswany’s ostracization from the political mainstream continues after security officials allegedly blocked a seminar he was due to hold. The headline in the Books section: “Egypt shuts down novelist Alaa al-Aswany’s public event and media work.“ Meanwhile, the New York Times’ Amina Ismail and Declan Walsh report that “Egypt Is intensifying its crackdown on journalists,” saying that “the number of reporters detained in Egypt has hit its highest level in decades.” And, finally, Maram Mazen’s piece for the AP headlined “Egypt lawyer challenges law that says writers can be jailed“ is getting wide pickup in U.S. and Canadian media.

WORTH READING

A Nuclear Nile: The Politics Behind Egypt’s Quest For Nuclear Energy, Foreign Affairs magazine. Israeli analyst and national security advisor Yoel Guzansky and Sigurd Neubauer argue that Egypt may use its civilian nuclear program to lay the groundwork for a military program in response to the nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 states. Despite the terms of Egypt’s agreement with Rosatom being under a build operate own (BOO) framework, Guzansky and Neubauer note that following the Iran agreement, while the UAE originally operated under a similar framework, “Abu Dhabi has expressed reservations about its abstention from enriching uranium… its ambassador … told the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman that Abu Dhabi no longer felt bound by its previous nuclear agreement with the United States. Whether or not the ambassador’s remarks present a policy change remains to be seen.” We don’t necessarily endorse the argument, and the authors do note Egypt’s pressing energy and desalination needs that nuclear energy can help meet. (Read, paywall)

IMAGE OF THE DAY

New Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau personally welcomes the first Syrian refugees to arrive in Canada as part of an airlift.

DIPLOMACY + FOREIGN TRADE

Latest round of tripartite talks fail to reach agreement, new round set for 27-28 December: Talks over the weekend in Khartoum between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan failed to reach an agreement, with another meeting set for the end of the month, Ahram Online reported, which was unable to get a comment from Egypt’s representatives at the meeting. Last weekend’s meeting included the irrigation and foreign ministers of all three riparian states. The next round of talks is also set to take place in Khartoum.

Egyptian-Sudanese Investment Forum to launch on Tuesday: The Egyptian-Sudanese Investment Forum is set to take place on Tuesday, 15 December, amid strained ties between the two countries. The event is organized by the Egyptian-East African Business Council and held under the auspices of the Egyptian Businessmen’s Association (EBA), Al Mal reports.

ENERGY

Israel should offer Egypt up to 20 years to pay IEC compensation – expert
If Israel insists on receiving the USD 1.76 bn in compensation awarded by an arbitrator to Israel Electric Corporation (IEC), the development of Leviathan could be delayed by up to ten years, an oil and gas expert told Globes’ Hedy Cohen. “This is a very large sum of money for Egypt to pay, but it is a paltry figure when you compare it to the revenues Israel expects from exporting the gas from Tamar and Leviathan to Egypt,” the expert suggests. Instead, Israel should offer Egypt a 15-20 year payment plan allowing it to “accept the arbitrators’ order and not reinforce its image abroad as a country that does not respect agreements, while on the other hand Israel receives the money and is seen as a country that is willing to be flexible.” Former Shell CEO John Hofmeister disagrees and thinks that Israel should find alternatives to exporting to Egypt altogether. (Read)

EETC seeking EGP 7 bn in loans
The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) has tapped banks for EGP 7 bn in funding for expansion projects, sources told Amwal Al Ghad. ADIB will take the lead on raising an EGP 2-3 bn sharia-compliant facility, while NBE will put together a syndicated facility of EGP 4-5 bn. (Read)

EWW Oil & Gas completes five gas storage tanks
EWW Oil & Gas completed construction of five butane gas storage facilities last month, as part of 11 it was subcontracted to complete by Petrojet and Petrogas for USD 200 mn. The remaining six will be completed by 2016, according to company executive Mansour Noseir. EWW Oil & Gas, a subsidiary of Egyptian Water Works (EWW), is an energy services company with a client base that skews toward multinationals. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS + COMMODITIES

Egypt’s first strawberry shipment to Russia stopped due to “technical malfunction”
Egypt’s attempts to fill the void by Moscow’s ban on Turkish imports hit its first roadblock after a shipment of strawberries did not take off from Cairo last week, Al Mal reports. Government representatives had expressed hopes to capture 80% of the value of Turkish exports to Russia, but this has not yet materialised. A small, 40-tonne shipment of strawberries was refused clearance due to an “aviation-related technical malfunction,” sources noted. (Read in Arabic)

Agriculture Ministry strengthens safety measures for food exports
The Agriculture Ministry is strengthening quality control measures of Egypt’s agricultural exports. The move follows the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issuing new safety regulations on food imports, which will go into effect on 26 January. Under the Ministry’s new measures, the Agricultural Quarantine Administration will increase the number of its inspection committees monitoring exports. Egypt’s Food Authority also launched a program of setting new safety standards for food products exported to the United States. Under these regulations the burden will be placed on the exporter to ensure the quality of their products. The Agricultural Ministry mirrored the move with regards to food imports, Al Borsa reports. (Read in Arabic)

Bidding on gold production sharing agreements to begin early next year
The first auction for gold exploration concessions under the new production sharing agreements will be held in 1Q16, said Amr Toeima, head of the Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority (EMRA). Seven of the eight concessions on offer are located in the Western Desert, with the eighth located in South Sinai, making it the first gold concession in the region. The government hopes the move to production sharing agreement for mineral resources will help it realize revenues at a much faster pace than profit-sharing agreements—whereby the government can claim its revenue shares after private investors receive their payout, according to Toeima. (Read in Arabic)

ACSPD to build EGP 450 mn vegetable oil factory in Borg El Arab
The Alexandria Company for Seed Processing & Derivatives plans to build an EGP 450 mn vegetable oil extraction and production facility in Borg El Arab. The facility would increase the company’s production capacity of vegetable oil by 3 ktons per day, according to company manager Ameen Khamis. The new facility will help the company meet 50% of Egypt’s local demand of vegetable oil, 90% of which is imported, said Khamis. ACSPD plans to export 20% of the factory’s products. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE

Al Futtaim plans to ink EGP 2 bn in contracts for Cairo Festival City next year
Al Futtaim Group Real Estate plans to dole out EGP 2 bn to contractors next year for work on EGP 19 bn Cairo Festival City, which is the value of contracts the company inked in 2015, said its managing director Mohamed El Mekkawy. The company has invested EGP 7 bn in the first phase of the 700 feddan project, and plans to invest a further EGP 12 bn by 2020. (Read in Arabic)

MANUFACTURING

Government assessing building an ‘advanced industrial zone’ in Borg El Arab
Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil said the government is assessing building an advanced industrial zone in Borg El Arab. The zone would be allocated 5.8 mn sqm of land. 3.7mn sqm would be allocated on an industrial developer basis and the remainder will serve as logistics services areas. Kabil says the zone is looking to attract EGP 8.6 bn in investments and create 58k new jobs. (Read)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

SPIMACO completes 51% acquisition of Meivo
Saudi Pharmaceutical Industries & Medical Appliances (SPIMACO) completed its 51% acquisition of Meivo International for Pharmaceutical Industries for USD 20 mn, according to Pharos Holdings—which acted as financial advisor on the transaction. The acquisition is a testament to the resilience of the Egyptian pharmaceutical sector, said Mohamed Taymour, founder and chairman of Pharos Holdings. (Read in Arabic)

BANKING + FINANCE

NBE looking to inject EGP 2 bn in SME clients over coming 3 months
The National Bank of Egypt (NBE) is looking to inject EGP 2 bn into the SME sector in the coming through months, a source told Al Borsa. The industrial sector will be allocated 40% of the financing, the source added. The bank is reportedly currently assessing EGP 400 mn in financing for SMEs in the energy sector currently, and could be disbursed before the end of 1Q2016. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

President El Sisi approves USD 400 mn loan from EBRD for social security program
President Abdel Fattah El Sisi approved a USD 400 mn loan agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to help fund the Takaful and Karama social security programs. Launched in December 2014 with the support of a USD 450 mn loan from the World Bank, Karama targets the elderly and the disabled with a cash stipend, while Takaful is a conditional cash transfer program that is allocated to families with children four times a year and is conditional upon their school attendance. Families on Takaful receive a base stipend with an additional amount of funding for each child. (Read in Arabic)

NATIONAL SECURITY

El Sisi meets with Greek Defense Minister
President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met with Greece’s Minister of National Defense Panos Kammenos while on his state visit on Wednesday, according to a statement from Ittihadiya. The two discussed the ongoing joint military training exercise Medusa 2015, a. The two also spoke on terrorism and the refugee and migrant crisis.

Egypt receives Type-209 submarine from Germany
Commander of Egypt’s naval forces Rear Admiral Osama Mounir received Egypt’s first Type-209/1400 submarine in an inauguration ceremony in Hamburg on Thursday, Ahram Online reported. Egypt has signed for a total of four such submarines from Germany, and was built by ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems.

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Silicon Valley-based venture firm 500 Startups announced a USD 30 mn fund allocated to MENA startups, Wamda reported. The fund, led by Bahrain’s Hasan Haider, is called “500 Falcons” and will focus on seed stage investments between USD 50,000 and USD 100,000 to invest in 100 to 200 companies. Haider said the fund will do follow-on investments of up to USD 500,000 in the top 20-30% of the companies “with potential additional capital from our main global fund in selected” transactions.

The World Bank greenlit a USD 75 mn loan for health programs, says International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr. The negotiations for the loan had previously been frozen for seven years, she added.

Electricity Minister heads to Moscow to finalize nuclear agreements: A high-level delegation headed by Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker will head to Moscow today to finalize negotiations on the Daba’a nuclear power plant agreement between the Nuclear Stations Authority and Rosatom. The delegation will review engineering and construction contracts for Daba’a, in addition to operations contracts and an agreement on the supply of fissile material, according to Ministry sources speaking to Al Borsa. Russia and Egypt signed three nuclear cooperation agreements, whereby Russia would finance the construction, with repayment coming through a share of revenues over a 35-year period. The plant is expected to begin operations in 2024. (Read in Arabic)

BY THE NUMBERS
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USD CBE auction (Thursday, 10 December): 7.7301 (unchanged since Wednesday, 11 November)
USD parallel market (Thursday, 10 December): 8.57 (+0.04 from Tuesday, 08 December, Reuters)

EGX30 (Thursday): 6637.91 (+0.13%)
Turnover: EGP 317.4 mn (27% below the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: -25.63%

THE MARKETS ON THURSDAY: Egypt’s benchmark EGX30 inched up 0.1% on Thursday on low turnover. Thursday’s top gainers were El Sewedy Electric, Juhayna, and CIB. Meanwhile, the worst performers were Beltone Financial, Arab Cotton Ginning, and TMG. At a market turnover of EGP 317.4m, local investors were the sole net buyers. Regionally, indices diverged in perfor­mance as Dubai’s General Index and Saudi’s TASI skidded 1.9% and 0.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Abu Dhabi Gen­eral Index posted a 0.1% rise. Globally, the UK’s FTSE 100 shed 0.2%, while France’s CAC 40, and Germany’s DAX were both up 0.1%.

Foreigners: Net Short | EGP -14.7 mn
Regional: Net Short | EGP -6.3 mn
Domestic: Net Long | EGP +21.0 mn

Retail: 72.6% of total trades | 71.5% of buyers | 73.7% of sellers
Institutions: 27.4% of total trades | 28.5% of buyers | 26.3% of sellers

Foreign: 16.0% of total | 13.7% of buyers | 18.4% of sellers
Regional: 3.9% of total | 2.9% of buyers | 4.8% of sellers
Domestic: 80.1% of total | 83.4% of buyers | 76.8% of sellers


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PHAROS VIEW

The governor of the Central Bank of Egypt met Wednesday with the chairmen of the nation’s banks, almost a week ahead of the MPC meeting. The news is perfectly consistent with our view that “banks have been enjoying record high NIMs post revolution (cc 5.0% or higher) so the CBE will ‘persuade’ them to raise deposit rates to support the de-dollarization initiative, maintain lending rates unchanged, and accommodate NIM compression until the country is out of the woods”.

Hence, the meeting is likely part of the “persuasion process” particularly as it is scheduled almost one week ahead of the MPC meeting. Yet, as we noted earlier, the outcome of this persuasion process is uncertain given the different objectives of shareholders and the ability of private banks to capture low-cost deposits via their long-term corporate relations. In any case, it seems that banks will indeed be requested to bear part of the brunt of the EGP defense phase, in one way or another. So, 2015 may mark the peak of the stellar growth in bottom line and RoE that started in 2012 on the back of intense deficit monetization operations. In this environment, however, selected banks may choose to maintain RoE targets by slowing down the pace of booking excess provisions or by raising fees and commissions charged on selected services. Our views on CIB have been based on gradual NIM compression, increase in fee/commission income and lower loan loss provisioning levels so we maintain our FV for CIB at EGP 52.2/share. Tap here to read the full note.

***


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