TL;DR

Dolphinus’ drive to import gas from Israel runs into brick wall as arbitration case goes against EGPC and EGAS (Speed Round)

Tracking where the FX could come from: Ismail gov’t lining up cash from GCC donors, Gulf lenders, international financial institutions

M&A Watch: Barclays Africa won’t be buying Barclays Egypt, Pioneers bids for Unipack (Speed Round)

Wait, did student loans just come to Egypt? (Speed Round)

Who are the business leaders in the House of Representatives? (Speed Round)

Gulf sovereign wealth funds are deserting global asset managers, the FT reports (Speed Round)

Doomsday countdown is more like watching paint dry with Lamis El Hadidy (Last Night’s Talk Shows)

By the Numbers + Reiterating a shift to a neutral stance on Egyptian equities

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The Markit / Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers Index for Egypt, Saudi and the United Arab Emirates will be released at 7:30am CLT today. You’ll be able to find them here when they’re out.

The new Cairo Airport Museum is set to open on Monday. Having been widely mocked by the international travel press, we’re presuming there will be only a trickle of follow-on headlines today.

The Wastewater and Sanitation Egypt conference opens this morning, running for three days.

Winter is coming: The unseasonable cold snap that started Saturday is coming to an end, according to the Meteorological Authority,  but cooler temps are here to stay with the approach of winter. Temperatures today should be c. 20°C, or about one degree warmer than yesterday with much calmer winds and sunny skies.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi will meet his counterparts from Greece and Cyprus on Wednesday at a tripartite summit in Athens. The Egyptian-Greek Business Council, co-chaired by Edita chief Hani Berzi, will meet during the gathering.

MEED’s Egypt Mega Projects Conference takes place Tuesday and Wednesday.

The RiseUp Entrepreneurship and Innovation Summit 2015 kicks off on Saturday and runs through Sunday night at the Greek Campus. Register online here — we hope to see you there.

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Lamis El Hadidy commemorated Egypt’s population reaching 90 mn residents within the country (98 mn including Egyptians living abroad) by treating the whole thing as if it were New Year’s Eve, keeping some poor correspondent standing out in the cold on Salah Salem just for him to be able to point to the population / doomsday clock on the side of the CAPMAS building.

After the momentary celebration, El Hadidy immediately wondered aloud if this was good or bad for Egypt. She later hosted a panel of four guests in her studio to talk about the lack of adequate family planning at the moment, despite family planning programs having been successfully launched in the past. El Hadidy, her guests and viewers calling in to the program all offered what they viewed as lacking in Egypt’s family planning agenda. In what is a rarity for Egyptian television, many of the comments from viewers were just as astute if not more compelling than what the in-studio guests were offering.

One caller insisted the situation be referred to as Egypt’s population bomb; another woman calling in said that Egypt’s high population growth rate is due to the state not enforcing a number of laws, including those against child marriage. The woman stated that girls sometimes get married off as young as 14 years of age, and that by the time they’re 20 they may have already had two children. A guest in El Hadidy’s studio also said that the religious endowments ministry should be involved in such discussions, as well as the education minister, and that the lack of real coordination between different government agencies on the matter is hurting any family planning efforts attempted by the state.

If it sounds like it was a slow night, that’s because it was. Watch here as El Hadidy watches the doomsday clock turn 90 mn, which is similar in both content and viewer experience to watching grass grow. (Watch in Arabic, running time: 20 seconds, watch until the 3:59 mark, or beyond that if you are a masochist.)

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SPEED ROUND

Dolphinus Holdings’ quotes to import natural gas from Israel ran into an obstacle yesterday as Israel’s state-owned electric utility said that Egypt’s national oil companies “will pay compensation of USD 1.76 bn for halting gas supplies” to Israel Electric, Reuters reported. The newswire notes that East Mediterranean Gas (EMG), which provided the infrastructure for the gas agreement in the form of an above-ground and sub-sea pipeline, “sued for USD 4 bn in damages, but an international arbitrator awarded Israel Electric USD 1.76 bn plus interest and legal expenses, the Israeli company said in a statement.” The Israel Electric statement was not available on the company’s website at dispatch time this morning. Israeli business outlet Globes says national petroleum companies EGAS and EGPC are on the hook after the arbitration ruling was handed down on Friday. Israel Electric “said it would act to enforce the arbitration ruling through dialogue with the Egyptian companies,” Globes noted.

EGPC and EGAS have countered by freezing talks with Israel on Dolphinus’ potential import of natural gas from Israel’s offshore gas fields pending their review of the arbitration decision and the potential lodging of an appeal. Global powerhouse Shearman & Sterling, which has long had an office in Abu Dhabi and earlier this fall opened a base in Dubai, is representing Egypt in the case, Al-Borsa reports. Dolphinus’ Alaa Arafa confirmed that the government had ordered talks be broken off. Arafa told Al-Borsa that “Egypt was acting within its sovereign rights to protect the national interest in response to an international arbitration case.” Arafa declined to say whether Israel dropping the international arbitration case had been a precondition for Egyptian approval of the gas imports.

After considerable back-and-forth in the press on whether Egypt had grounds to appeal or not, Prime Minister Sherif Ismail settled the issue, telling Bloomberg that “Egypt will appeal the ruling by a panel at the Geneva-based International Chamber of Commerce within six weeks.” EGPC and EGAS are also planning to appeal a second ruling that they pay EMG USD 288 mn, according to a pretty solid Reuters wrap-up on the story.

What’s at stake? As we’ve been reporting for months now, Leviathan developers Delek and Noble Energy have been in talks with Egypt’s Dolphinus Holdings — founded by textiles magnate Alaa Arafa and energy sector veteran Khaled Abu Bakr, among others — to sell gas to Egypt. Gas would have to flow from Leviathan as well as the Tamar fields to Egypt via the EMG pipeline. While Dolphinus says it has “signed a letter of intent with most of the shareholders in EMG,” Globes speculated last week that Israeli businessman Yossi Maiman, a 12.5% shareholder in EMG, is using the Dolphinus talks “in the arbitration in which he is involved against the Egyptian government … to obtain compensation … for the cancellation of the contract to supply Egyptian gas to Israel.” Dolphinus and EMG were said to be in talks in London as recently as late last week.

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The run of six stories below speaks in part to one of the central economic questions of the day: “Where’s the CBE getting the FX that has allowed it to so-far defend the EGP?” The stories do not answer the fundamental question of where the FX already released into the market came from, but suggests a concerted effort by the state to raise foreign exchange from Gulf lenders, GCC countries and international financial institutions going forward.

The EGP held steady at yesterday morning’s currency auction, according to the CBE’s auction page, with USD 39.5 mn of the USD 40 mn on offer going for EGP 7.7301 per USD. Reuters notes the EGP strengthened one piaster from Thursday’s rate on the parallel market to EGP 8.52.

The big-three state-owned banks including “NBE, Banque du Caire, and Banque Misr don’t participate in FX auctions because they have good liquidity from expat transfers,” Al Mal quotes Banque Misr Chairman Mohamed El-Etreby as saying, denying claims the Central Bank of Egypt allowing the big three to crowd-out smaller players at the thrice-weekly FX auctions.

Egypt will sign a USD 1.5 bn loan agreement with the World Bank on 19 December and will receive USD 1 bn of the facility before year’s end, International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr told Al Ahram. Egypt will also sign for a loan from the AfDB on 15 December which will see Egypt receive USD 500 mn before the year is out. The same Al Ahram story notes that Prime Minister Sherif Ismail has completed the plan of action his cabinet will present to the incoming parliament. Asked about a possible gubernatorial reshuffle, Ismail stated that he has a plan for a reshuffle is in place and that its implementation would depend on both the current state of affairs and receiving approvals — presumably from the president and parliament.

Negotiations for new GCC loans, aid: The government has opened new talks with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries for loans and grants to fund development projects including the 1.5 mn feddans land reclamation project, industrial zones, and Sinai, International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr told Al Mal. The state is also interested in securing general loans to support its budget. Talks also include the potential supply of in-kind assistance in the form of commodities as well as raw materials to produce a Hepatitis-C drug, she added. Talks are scheduled to continue this coming Sunday, 13 December.

Gulf lenders have provided Banque Misr with the USD 250 mn facility on which we suggested yesterday the bank was closing in. The three-year facility will be used for “general funding purposes,” Bahrain’s Bank ABC said in a statement. “We are pleased with the support provided by the mandated lead arrangers and bookrunners and the strong demand presented from banks participating in the Facility’s general syndication. This appetite reflects confidence in Banque Misr and the future prospects of Egypt’s economy,” Bank ABC quoted Banque Misr chairman Mohamed El-Etreby as saying. Participants in the ABC-arranged syndicate included Emirates NBD, HSBC, Mashreq and Union National Bank.

The International Cooperation Minister signed a USD 600 mn loan agreement with the European Investment Bank (EIB) to fund the USD 1.3 bn Damanhour power transmission station, Al Borsa reports. The EIB will join the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFESD), which have provided USD 80 mn and USD 200 mn, respectively, to fund the facility. The EIB is considering financing other projects expected to be announced in 2016, including EUR 300 mn in investments in Alexandria’s tram network and backing the purchase of 13 trains for Cairo Metro Line 2 worth EUR 175 mn.

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Barclays Africa Group has broken-off talks to buy Barclays Egypt and Barclays Zimbabwe from parent institution Barclays Plc, reports Bloomberg, saying the two “couldn’t agree on price … after extensive discussions.” The financial information service quoted Barclays Africa Chief Executive Officer Maria Ramos as saying in an emailed statement: “While we are naturally disappointed that we were not able to agree commercial terms with Barclays Bank Plc, a decision had to be taken in the best interests of our stakeholders, including our minority shareholders.”

M&A Watch- Brokerage house Pioneers Holdings, which has been ramping up its prop investments throughout the year, told Reuters yesterday that it was seeking 100% of Universal Packaging Materials and Paper Co. (Unipack) at EGP 7.50 per share. The disclosure on the subject is available here. Unipack changed hands on Thursday at EGP 6 per share but was up nearly 10% to EGP 6.60 at yesterday’s close. Unipack chairman Yasser Zaki told Al-Borsa the company is waiting for word from EFSA on the appointment of an independent financial advisor. Al-Borsa suggests Pioneers already holds 32.5% of Unipack’s shares. Pioneers has recently accumulated stakes in Cairo Housing and Development, Roaya Group, United Housing and Electro Cable Egypt.

Another 2.5-3 GW of electricity generation capacity is due to come on line by next summer, Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker told Reuters yesterday on the sidelines of a conference. Shaker also reaffirmed yesterday the ministry will line up EGP 16 bn in investments for the transmission network next year, according to Al Borsa.

Student loans coming to Egypt? Arab African International Bank (AAIB) is launching a package of loan products covering up to 100% of tuition fees for Egyptian students. The program will provide a maximum of EGP 1.2 mn in funding for qualified borrowers covering tuition at levels ranging from kindergarten through postgraduate studies. Correct us if we’re wrong, readers, but we believe this is a market first. We’re aware of lenders who will loan small sums for education as a general loan and education savings products have existed for more than a decade, but we can’t think of another specific “student” or “tuition” loan program in the country. (Read in Arabic)

The Housing Ministry sell no less than 5k feddans of land per year, announced the Housing Minister Mustafa Madbouly. The move comes as part of the Ministry’s strategy to boost investment in the real estate and housing sector, in addition to creating a better balance between supply and demand for real estate across all income brackets. He added that the ministry managed to grow investments in the sector to EGP 28 bn so far this year, up from EGP 14 bn last year, Al Mal reports.

Eastern Tobacco has re-stated its earnings for FY2014-15, closing the year with a bottom line of EGP 1.27 bn against the EGP 1.08 bn it had previously reported. The company’s statement did not explain the restatement. Also yesterday: Eastern said total production of smokes had risen 8.% to 82 bn individual cigarettes, of which it sold 79 bn, Ahram Online reported. Eastern was voted the Best Company for IR (Egypt) at the Extel Middle East IR Awards 2015 earlier this fall. The company also announced it will pay cash dividends at EGP 10 a share on 22 December.

How many flights has the downing of Metrojet Flight 9268 cost Egypt? EasyJet cancelled 176 charter flights to Sharm El Sheikh in November, Bloomberg reports. In other aviation news, EgyptAir has reportedly signed a preliminary agreement to acquire eight Boeing 737-800 aircraft with BOC Aviation for delivery in the second half of 2016, the Daily News Egypt reports.

“High-profile businessmen MPs to play big role in Egypt’s new parliament,” runs the headline on a lengthy piece by Ahram Online’s Gamal Essam El-Din that tracks back and forth between pre- and post-revolutionary Egypt to make the point that business has long had an influence on politics. The TL;DR:

• The Free Egyptians, which led the race for individual (as opposed to party list) seats with 65 candidates elected, was founded by Naguib Sawiris;
• Mostaqbal Watan received funding from Egyptian Steel founder Ahmed Abu Hashima and Alexandria industrialist Mohamed Farag Amer;
• Fi Hob Masr elected candidates including the Federation of Egyptian Industries’ Mohamed El-Sewedy, automotive distributor Mohamed Abaza, Faragalla’s Mohamed Farag Amer, and Sahar Talaat Mostafa, daughter of TMG founder Talaat Moustafa.
• Winning individual seats: Talaat El Sewedy, Mahmoud Othman and Mahmoud Khamis, all three members of high-profile business families.

While President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has yet to announce any of his 28 appointments for the incoming House of Representatives, Judge Ahmed Saad was appointed as the secretary-general for the incoming parliament on Saturday, at the request of the State Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Magdi Al-Agati. Saad replaces former intelligence officer Khaled Al-Sadr, who was appointed secretary general just this past October, and who resigned just one day prior to Al-Agati’s appointment. Unnamed sources speaking to Ahram Online say Al-Sadr was forced to resign after having fired a number of the parliament’s employees on charges they belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood and Daesh, but in actuality, the sources say, were dismissed for resisting corruption.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi stressed yesterday the importance of forming a joint Arab defense force to address the most prominent common security threats facing the region, Al Ahram reports. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are already taking “real steps” to establish the force as part of their strategy on dealing with regional issues, he added in a speech.

Yemeni governor killed in bomb attack; Daesh claims responsibility: Aden Governor Jaafar Mohamed and six of his entourage were killed in an attack on their convoy by a Daesh-affiliated group yesterday, reports Reuters. The group said it detonated a car laden with explosives aimed at Saad’s convoy in Aden’s Tawahi district and promised more operations against “the heads of apostasy in Yemen.” Daesh have claimed 159 deaths and wounded 345 this year in Yemen. On Saturday, attackers shot dead a prominent anti-terrorism court judge and his two sons, along with a military intelligence official, in separate attacks.

Gulf sovereign wealth funds desert asset managers -FT: The sustained drop in global oil prices and growing budgetary pressures have prompted a number of Gulf sovereign wealth funds to make massive redemptions on funds overseen by asset managers, Attracta Mooney writes in the Financial Times (paywall). The impact of the redemptions on the top lines of asset managers is beginning to come together: “Either buried away in many third-quarter results or disclosed hesitantly during calls with analysts,” Mooney notes. Morgan Stanley is referenced as saying they expect asset managers focused on emerging markets are at the highest risk for continued outflows from SWFs, a trend that observers such as Robert Callagy from Moody’s sees as not ending any time soon.

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

The top story on Egypt this morning is the international arbitration award to Israel Electric that could see EGPC and EGAS paying at least USD 1.76 bn to the Israeli utility company (See Speed Round, above).

Meanwhile, international media outlets have focused over the past several days on the Egyptian public’s reawakening to police brutality. Two of the most notable pieces:

Kareem Fahim at the New York Times notes the interior ministry took the unusual step of issuing a statement in English through the Cairo Press Center on the issue rather than posting an image with text on it to their Facebook page as per usual. Fahim cites figures from domestic NGO Al Nadeem Center for the Management and Rehabilitation of Victims of Torture which allege that at least 13 people died while in police custody last month alone.

On the standard refrain that the steady stream of accounts of deaths in police custody are ‘isolated incidents’: “As long as they treat these as isolated incidents, nothing will change. The Interior Ministry first needs to acknowledge there is a systemic problem and a culture of impunity that means police feel they can get away with violence,” Reuters‘ Lin Noueihed quotes EIPR criminal justice researcher Karim Ennara as saying.

WORTH READING

“Sounds great”-ing your way to inbox zero: Do you have trouble replying to all your emails? Has the simple act of replying become too daunting and emotionally draining of a task for you to perform? The creepy people at Google (who don’t seem to understand they’re creepy, keep insisting they are not creepy, but who keep doing creepy things with no one able to stop them) have a new solution for you email-reply-phobes out there. The concept they originally mocked and presented as an April Fool’s joke back in 2009 is now being rolled out as a plug-in. In 2009, “For those who hadn’t registered the date, the terms-and-conditions page spelled out the joke: ‘No, we don’t plan to scan every one of your incoming messages and automatically send the perfect reply.’ On November 5, 2015, Google unveiled Smart Reply, a plug-in that reads and suggests responses to e-mails. This time the innovation actually exists, as part of the company’s Inbox app for Android and iOS. If Smart Reply thinks that it understands a message that requires an answer, it will suggest three options, alongside a cheerful invitation to ‘start composing your reply with one tap.’“ Read Google’s New Autoreply Sounds Great by Nicola Twilley for The New Yorker. (Postscript: Yes, we removed the four consecutive exclamation marks from the title. Yes, we understand it’s a reference to a joke in the article, but keeping the exclamation marks would prevent delivery to inboxes and you have Google, among others, to thank for that.)

WORTH WATCHING

Eddie Murphy and Rick James sing Party All the Time. (Watch, running time: 4:09)

DIPLOMACY + FOREIGN TRADE

Are relations with Sudan and Ethiopia becoming more complicated than usual? Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir said that the Ethiopian Renaissance dam has “become a reality” and said the 20,500 square kilometer Halayeb triangle is part of Sudan, AMAY reports. Al-Bashir said in an interview with Al Arabiya that Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia would have to work together to “ensure [the dam] doesn’t negatively impact us.” On a separate note, he noted that Sudan has filed a complaint with the U.N. Security Council on Egypt holding parliamentary elections in Hala’ib, a zone to which Sudan has filed claim. The news comes after Ethiopia asked that a tripartite meeting originally due to be held yesterday in Khartoum be rescheduled to this weekend.

Trade and Industry Ministry to open five new trade offices in Africa
The Ministry of Trade and Industry is opening five new trade offices in Djibouti, Tanzania, Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana and Uganda. The move comes as part of the Ministry’s strategy to grow trade relations through the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) and the three African blocs including COMESA, EAC, and SADC. The Ministry plans to leverage its membership in both regional zones and Egypt’s historic position as a gateway between Africa and the Middle East, said Minister Tarek Kabil. Egypt had already made strides in this policy by hosting a conference earlier this year, which aimed to create an enlarged pan-African free trade zone area. (Read in Arabic)

ENERGY

Five international companies take out tender documents on Ataka power plant consultancy
Five international companies have taken out documents for a tender to advise on the Ataka pumping and storage plant that will be built by Sinohydro. Among the companies are international engineering company Lahmeyer Group, and a GSC-led consortium, sources told Al Borsa. The Cabinet greenlit the project, allocated the land and issued the permits, the source added. (Read in Arabic)

MANUFACTURING

Qalyubiyah and FEI sign cooperation agreement for petrochemicals industries complex
The Federation of Egyptian Industries (FEI) signed a cooperation agreement with the Qalyubiyah Governorate to establish a 36 feddan complex for small and medium-sized petrochemicals projects, Al Borsa reports. Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil promised to build a technical and vocational training facility in the governorate to provide skilled workers for the project. The project is an integral part of the government’s development plan for the governorates, said Abla Abdel Latif, a member of the president’s economic committee. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

Health Ministry raises floor for medication prices to EGP 10
The Ministry of Health has raised the floor price for “non-performing medications” — currently costing more to make than sell — to EGP 10, in a move to promote continued production by public and private companies, Health Minister Ahmed Emad El Din told Al Mal. Almost 300 types of medications had their production halted due to their increased cost of manufacturing, including blood pressure and diabetes drugs, cortisone, and insulin. The Division of Pharmacy Owners at the Chamber of Commerce had filed several memos to the Ministry asking for reevaluation the pharmaceutical pricing law, which had not been changed in 12 years. (Read in Arabic)

Vacsera looks for military, cooperation ministry funding
Vaccine maker Vacsera has asked the Armed Forces and the Ministry of International Cooperation Ministry to fund completion of its new manufacturing facility in 6 October City hold. The company is holding meetings with both parties and the Health Ministry to explore funding and cooperation options, according to a company statement. Projects presently on hold include facilities to produce syringes, blood-based products including plasma, and bird flu sera. (Read in Arabic)

TOURISM

Tourist arrivals fall 9.3% in October, reports CAPMAS
The number of tourists visiting Egypt dropped 9.3% year-on-year in October to 909K tourists, down from around 1 mn in October 2014, according to figures from CAPMAS. Eastern Europeans made up 39.7% of tourists that month, with Russia being the source of 71% of those tourists. EU tourists made up 35.5% of travelers for the month, Al Mal reports. Total nights occupied in Egypt dropped 27.3% to a total of 7.1 mn nights, down from 9.8 mn in October 2014. This data precedes the downing of Metrojet Flight KGL-9268, which crashed on 31 October so cannot factor in the damage this has had on tourism. (Read in Arabic)

Ministry of Tourism launches domestic tourism promotional campaign this week
The Ministry of Tourism announced it will launch its domestic tourism campaign at the end of this week, reports Al Borsa. JWT will launch its promotional campaign in 27 countries starting with the Middle East mid-December. (Read in Arabic)

BANKING + FINANCE

USD 200 mn credit facilities from Afreximbank
The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) is issuing USD 200 mn in credit facilities as part of the USD 500 mn Egypt-Africa Trade Promotion Program launched in February, Benedict Oramah, the bank’s president told Al Mal. Oramah had previously stated that the program’s budget can be doubled. The CBE and Oramah are in continued negotiations over the details of a USD 1 bn facility to improve FX liquidity. (Read in Arabic)

ICT Minister promises e-trading will come under a well-oiled system
ICT Minister Yasser Al Kadi promised to get the ball rolling on implementing electronic trading in securities. He added that there will be coordination among Chambers of Commerce and other business associations to ensure that the right legislation for this system is in place, while ensuring that international experts would be consulted on implementing the best model for the system in Egypt. (Read in Arabic)

OTHER BUSINESS NEWS OF NOTE

EUR 20 mn from EU for agricultural SMEs
The European Union will provide EUR 20 mn in funding for SMEs in the agriculture sector with a focus on improving productivity in the dairy and aquaculture industries, according to International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr. The funding will be administered by French development agency AFD. (Read in Arabic)

NATIONAL SECURITY

One dead and four injured in an attack in Arish
One conscript was killed and four others injured when an IED was set off as an armored convoy was moving along the coastal road in Arish, North Sinai, according to security sources, Al Masry Al Youm reports. (Read in Arabic)

SPORTS

Following the last incident — when Zamalek’s coach fled the country in the middle of the night to avoid public criticism from the club’s president — Zamalek FC have announced a new coach has been found, and this time he is a Brazilian. Marcos Paqueta, who coached the Saudi national football team and worked with top Gulf clubs, will replace Portuguese football manager Jesualdo Ferreira. Zamalek President Mortada Mansour told the press half-joking: “Paqueta can speak Arabic well, so he will understand me when I swear, but this also means he will can’t avoid my instructions on how to manage the team.” Zamalek won the league title with Ferreira last season, but failed to beat Al Ahly in the Super Cup, leading to a falling-out between Mansour and the former coach. (Read in Arabic)

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Egypt and Turkey are losing Russian tourists to Thailand, the UAE, India and Vietnam, the Moscow Times reports. Thailand and the UAE are the fastest-growing destinations of the four.

Administrative Capital and Alamein projects to be announced within weeks, Housing Minister Moustafa Madbouly announced at a conference at the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt.