Wednesday, 4 November 2015

Business confidence slumps in October, PMI shows

TL;DR

Business confidence slumps in October, PMI shows (Speed Round)

USD 2.2 bn in E&P agreements get green light from El Sisi (Speed Round)

Kabil speaks at AmCham; we have a roundup. (Speed Round)

TE looks to resolve disputes with mobile network operators (Speed Round)

Banque du Caire looks at 40+% profit growth. (Speed Round)

Another obstacle to Israeli gas imports cleared as Economy Minister resigns (Speed Round)

PHD to develop Smart Village “integrated residential and commercial community” (Speed Round)

The real roots of Midlife Crisis (Worth Reading)

By the Numbers + Egypt Macro and Equity Strategy: Too Much EGP Chasing Too Few Dollars

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will begin a two-day state visit to the UK today during which he will will meet with British Prime Minister David Cameron and Secretary of State for Defence Michael Fallon for talks that will focus heavily on security cooperation. He is also scheduled to meet with members of the UK business community as well as the president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and sign “two MoUs in the fields of security and higher education.”

It is expected to rain in Cairo today with a chance of thunder showers. The Weather Authority is also forecasting a 50-60% chance of rain on both Thursday and Friday. Rain is also in the forecast for tomorrow and over the weekend in Alexandria, threatening flash floods worse than those witnessed on 25 October, a spokesperson from the meteorological authority.

The EBRD holds its first south-eastern Mediterranean business forum in Skhirat, Morocco today, focusing on agribusiness, industry, infrastructure and sustainable energy in Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia.

Are we the only ones who don’t appreciate the Financial Times website redesign?

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

The Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce is hosting chamber of commerce officials from some 50 countries on Saturday to discuss preparations for an international logistics conference to be held in Egypt and a European-African electricity and energy summit. The gathering coincides with a general assembly meeting of the Federation of African Chambers of Commerce. (Read in Arabic)

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

As we noted yesterday, our talk shows section is on “hiatus” today. We’ll be back tomorrow morning.

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SPEED ROUND

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Business conditions in Egypt’s non-oil private sector worsened at the quickest pace since February after having improved in three of the previous four months, according to the Emirates NBD PMI, registering an eight-month low of 47.2 in October from 50.2 a month earlier. The decrease followed a marked reduction in output and new orders, as demand was lower than expected and exports dropped. The nosedive was exacerbated by a sharper rise in purchase costs over devaluation concerns. Issues undermining the sector’s output include “problems with power supplies and the availability of FX,” Jean-Paul Pigat, Senior Economist at Emirates NBD, is quoted as saying. (Read the release in English or Arabic, pdf).

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi passed laws approving six oil and gas exploration agreements worth a combined USD 2.2 bn and USD 545 mn in signing bonuses, according to Reuters Arabic. Four of the agreements were for Eni’s eight wells in North Port Said, Baltim, the Suez Gulf, and the Delta worth USD 2.1 bn, said Petroleum Minister Tarek El Molla. The remaining agreements were with Apache for a USD 30 mn well in the Western Desert and with Tunisia-based HBS for a USD 9 mn well, reports AMAY.

Egypt and California are regions in which German energy company RWE is “very interested,” CEO Peter Terium told Bloomberg. The company is turning to sun and wind as domestic profit plunged amid the lowest German power prices in more than a decade. Bloomberg reports that “RWE plans to become more active in The Middle East and North Africa, where renewable energy capacity will increase about eightfold to 47 gigawatts by 2020 from 2013, according to slides at the presentation.” The company is also still in talks “about cooperation in projects with an Arab partner who had been interested in buying a stake of the utility earlier this year,” but the discussions are not exclusive and the plans could be revisited.

From the Reuters Middle East Summit: Beltone says it will manage four IPOs on the EGX in 1H2016 worth more than EGP 2.5 bn, according to Chairman Aladin Saba. All four transactions were postponed from this year due to market conditions, Saba noted, declining to name the companies. Commenting on having won Egypt’s first licence for an exchange traded fund, “Saba said poor market conditions meant XT-MISR had not been as successful as hoped.” Explaining the market slowdown, he said that “when someone wants to put his money in the country while being aware that there is a devaluation on the way, he will wait until the devaluation happens.” Saba declined to comment on the ongoing bid by OTMT and ACT Financial to acquire Beltone Financial Holdings.

Also from the summit: Telecom Egypt (TE) is looking to resolve longstanding disputes with mobile providers before going for a mobile licence itself. New CEO Ossama Yassin, who succeeded the “fiery” Mohamed Elnawawy, said TE is looking “to improve relations and settle disputes with the mobile providers which it serves” in the meantime, but says TE is “seeking mobile access and was focusing on the planned rollout of high-speed 4G services set for 2016.” Taking the same tack as Elnawawy, Yassin does not believe that TE’s entrance into the mobile market should be contingent on the sale of its stake in Vodafone Egypt.

Other summit stories worth checking out:

Israeli offshore gas find Leviathan’s regulatory path has been cleared with the resignation of Israel’s Economy Minister, Aryeh Deri. The development will allow Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to bypass antitrust resistance to the regulatory framework, UBS’ Roni Biron says. This implies that talks with BG and Union Fenosa Gas are set to shift into a higher gear and “between the two, the Tamar / UFG talks are at a more advanced stage, but we centre our attention on BG, given its pivotal role in the commercial roadmap of Leviathan,” Biron adds. Biron sees room in Egypt for both Israeli gas and production from Eni’s Zohr discovery “given the scope of untapped demand in Egypt and export requirements.”

Cyprus views the Israeli regime change as a possible threat as, according to Cyprus Mail, it could impact Cyprus’ own export ambitions. Leviathan’s agreement with the Idku plant and Tamar’s with the one in Damietta “are in direct competition with Cyprus. And, says analyst Charles Ellinas, were the agreements to be finalised they would definitively obviate Egypt’s need to import Cypriot gas.” However, the Cypriot paper notes that “the one project which is not in direct competition with Cyprus is Israel’s plan to sell Tamar gas to Egypt for domestic consumption. If clinched, that would tide Egypt over until their recent Zohr discovery comes on-stream.”

… Four to five years to see production from Leviathan -Noble CEO: “We’ve been looking at kind of a time frame of about a year to bring all of this together to move to FID [final investment decision],” said Noble Energy Chief Executive Officer David Stover on a conference call with analysts on Monday, Bloomberg reported. “I think when you look at actual first production, we’ve been talking three years to four years from FID, the first production.”

Palm Hills and two vehicles led by Naeem’s Youssef El Far have agreed to “co-develop an integrated residential and commercial community in Smart Village, West Cairo” with a total footprint of 10,000 sqm, according to an emailed statement. The project is “located within the second phase of Smart Village” and notes that “PHD will be responsible for all construction, development, marketing and sales activities.” El Far’s Reacap Financial Investments will hold a 10% stake in the venture, while a Reacap subsidiary will contribute the land for the project and receive an in-kind payment equivalent to about a third of the project’s more than 59,000 sqm in built-up area. The statement pegs the total BUA as being worth EGP 700-800 mn and notes PHD will hold a 51% stake in the JV, with Reacap taking 10%. The balance will go to “other minority partners.”

“The case to freeze my personal assets had no effect on the performance of Juhayna and had no bearing on its JV with [Danish] company Arla Foods,” said Safwan Thabet, the Chairman of Juhayna. Speaking on the sidelines= of a luncheon hosted by The American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt featuring keynote speaker Trade Minister Tarek Kabil, Thabet added that Arla had already moved forward with its investments in Egypt, Al Borsa reports. The committee tasked with monitoring, seizing and managing the Brotherhood’s assets had frozen Thabet’s personal assets back in August. (The story misidentifies Arla as Dutch.)

Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil spoke yesterday at the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt under the theme: ‘Deepening Egyptian industry to meet global challenges.’ Kabil briefly noted the lack of FX liquidity, issues with industrial land zoning, the lack of SME financing and energy shortages. On the last point, he reiterated the same promise made by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi that all industries will no longer have to grapple with shortages as of the end of this month. The Minister then spoke to several main points:

  • Improving the business environment: The Minister began by noting Egypt’s room for improvement of its ranking in the World Bank Doing Business Report, including simplifying and reducing the time and steps for licensing. Another issue raised was that rather than land allocation being under the overlapping jurisdiction of four different authorities — three ministries along with local authorities: Kabil wishes to see land allocation be made the responsibility of one single authority. He expressed similar views on the need to create a single authority to act as a food safety agency.
  • Industrial zones: Kabil noted that his ministry is currently mapping the country according to each location’s comparative industry advantage to maximize logistical efficiencies.
  • Exports: The Minister stated that he takes issue with the export subsidy system as it is, and aims to improve the system, value and payment — especially the timing of payment. Disbursing funds one and a half years later is problematic, he said. Kabil also advocated for a reorientation toward Africa as an export market. He said that while Europe is still an important export market, Egypt needs to move fast on Africa, and that the tripartite FTA was an important step in the right direction.
  • Following his address, the Minister took questions, the first on the possibility of exemptions from VAT for the food industry. Kabil confirmed a large portion of the food industry will be exempt, and that there will be two VAT rates, but did not elaborate further. With regard to chemical inspection and testing delaying the release of goods at customs, the Minister said this was a national security issue but that he was working on getting the process streamlined to seven days.

Flight KGL-9268 update: The Kremlin is refusing to politicise the crash as Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists “it was inappropriate to link Russia’s military strategy in Syria with the results of an investigation into [the flight’s crash in Egypt],” according to Reuters. In separate news, Hurghada Airport officials refused to clear a Russian aircraft for take-off after discovering a malfunction in one of its computers, Al Shorouk reported. On Tuesday, the Civil Aviation Ministry spokesperson Mohamed Rahmi said there was no evidence supporting claims that the plane broke up in the air – however he did confirm that no distress call had been received from the plane prior to the crash, Reuters reports.

Tourism Sector holds its collective breath over crash report: Tourism Minister Hisham Zaazou was unwavering in his promotion of charter flights at the World Travel Market Exhibition in London despite the crash of the Russian charter flight, reports Al Mal. Zazzou held meetings with senior industry leaders including UK-based travel promoters On the Beach, with whom he discussed opening a direct flight route from Manchester to Sharm El Sheikh. He highlighted the importance of promotional campaigns sponsored by the Tourism Ministry in drawing visitors to the country. The landing page for Egypt’s exhibit at the event is available here, featuring a promotional video being presented at the WTM (scroll down on the landing page to view).

…The tourism sector is waiting on the results of the crash report to determine which way the wind blows. Egypt Tourism Authority head Samy Mahmoud weighed in on the Ministry’s strategy in Al Borsa. He states that while the Russian tourism promotional campaign would be suspended until the results of the investigation emerge, the ministry would use the WTM and other international travel conferences to promote tourism. If the investigation concludes that the causes were malfunctions, then the sector will be in line to grow 10% this winter season. Nora Ali, vice-president of the Travel Agencies and Tourism Chamber of Commerce, said the crash did not have a negative impact on tourism from England and Germany, while the Hotels Chamber VP Nagy Erian said some non-charter commercial airlines including British Airways have amended their schedules until the investigation report is released.

Prime Minister Sherif Ismail held a number of meetings with his ministers yesterday to review key files and convened a special cabinet meeting to discuss increasing supplies of food and medical goods as part of his bid to curb inflation. Also on the agenda: the Domestic Goods Protection Law. This was followed by a meeting with the Ministers of Housing and Investments and the Governor of Damietta over building the furniture industrial city. The Prime Minister then met with a number of investors associations and the ministers of Investment and Trade, Al Ahram reports. Notable decisions from the day include:

  • Damietta Factory City: Forming a holding company to be owned by the Damietta Governorate, an investment bank, and GAFI by the end of November; designating the project a Special Investment Zone; and hiring consultants to study the project.
  • Industry: The formation of working groups to discuss issuing permanent operating licences, creating standards and practices for the development of factories, and to refine the export subsidy program.
  • Investment: GAFI will open offices in all governorates to assist investors on the ground. And for the “nth” time the government will “activate” the one-stop shop “policy.” (Anyone else out there holding their breath?)

The Tourism Ministry joined the fray over which government agency should take the lead on land sales, appearing to sign-up with the Housing MInistry against the Investment Ministry. Sources from the Housing Ministry have complained that the Investment Ministry has added more red tape to land appraisals, requiring both the Housing and Tourism Ministry to provide a detailed pricing history for each plot of land to be sold. These new requirements delay the pricing process by up two months, those sources told Al Borsa. Disputes between the Housing and Investment Ministry have continued to intensify over the past few months over the latter’s “excessive bureaucracy.”

Revolving door: The Free Egyptians Party announced in a statement on Tuesday that their party will support the nomination of Adly Mansour as the next speaker of the house, according to AMAY as reported by Egypt Independent.

MOVES- Haitham Abdou was appointed as Managing Director of Xerox Egypt, succeeding Ashraf Al Arman, Al Shorouk reported.

Ted Cruz sponsors legislation to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organisation in the United States: Far-right American news site Free Beacon report that Republican Senator and presidential candidate Ted Cruz filed legislation (pdf) on Tuesday seeking the designation of the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization. The first of such bills to attempt this was defeated last year. The bill faces the major hurdle of needing approval from the US State Department. The bill would require the State Department, as well as other agencies, to give their consent for the designation, and if not, to give detailed justification as to why the organization does not meet its criteria as a terror organisation.

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

On Tuesday evening, David Kirkpatrick announced in a tweet: “The @nytimes announced today that the great and lucky @declanwalsh will take my place at Cairo bureau chief. And book leave for me….”

Egypt: Let us please extend some civility and at the very least not troll the man. Let him go in peace. Yes, this is the master-troll imploring for a cessation of hostilities, but we would rather criticize the actions of states than individuals doing their jobs. And if we all spent a mere fraction of the time criticizing the domestic press that we spent on international coverage of Egypt, the result would be far more beneficial to our society. No, some Egyptian kid did not actually invent a new source of energy using “gravity” with some device that looks like a lawnmower — but you’d never know that if you picked up an Egyptian newspaper at random and believed what was written.

Warning: The following may lead to a nationwide pandemic of pearl-clutching. Distinguished AUC professor and historian Khaled Fahmy has written for the international press a reimagining of what he and many others still refer to as the 2011 revolution. Fahmy places what he describes as the 2011 revolution in the context of social / protest movements of the past 200 years — an impressive feat, except for the problem that it is not altogether certain that a revolution really happened at all.

Everyone in this country has a divergent definition of what the “revolution” was, and a tendency to assume that his or her fellow citizen had the same demands in mind. The truth is everyone was united only by their illusion of unity. Fahmy writes from a place of privilege and probably incorrectly assumes the majority in Tahrir wanted the same freedoms he did But if THE PEOPLE were really interested in freedom, why did the Brotherhood win elections? Fahmy asks: “Was it, rather, a revolution not only against Mubarak’s 30 black years, but against … the 23 July 1952 revolution? That revolution offered us … giving up our constitutional and political rights in exchange for social and economic rights.”

Two of the three demands of the 2011 revolt were explicitly calling for economic rights – with freedom literally sandwiched between “bread” and “social justice” as if it were an actual condiment like chips and tahina. Dr. Fahmy makes no mention of it in his article, but the uprising’s slogan was a clear articulation of a demand to return to Gamal Abdel Nasser’s social contract — an exchange of economic goods and services in abdication of political and free will. The demand to topple the president only came later. We could go on about this forever, but you don’t have all day…

WORTH READING

The Real Roots of Midlife Crisis, The Atlantic, December 2014. This examination on existential angst is a great read for any age — before, during or after the so-called midlife crisis — as a reflection on the lesser-known term ‘happiness U-curve.’ “What I wish I had known in my 40s (or, even better, in my late 30s) is that happiness may be affected by age, and the hard part in middle age, whether you call it a midlife crisis or something else, is for many people a transition to something much better—something, there is reason to hope, like wisdom. I wish someone had told me…” (Read)

WORTH WATCHING

Obama mocks Republicans on their most recent debate: While none of us here at Enterprise are particularly fond of US President Barack Obama, next to most (all?) of the Republican candidates vying for his job, the man looks like an absolute genius. Following a number of heated exchanges between Republican candidates and the liberal CNBC moderators at the most recent Republican debate last week (Watch an excerpt of the debate for reference first, running time: 1:47), then watch Obama mock their complaints to pretty good effect, running time: 2:43)

DIPLOMACY

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met with the Chief Executive Officer of the Port of Singapore Authority Tan Chong Meng on Tuesday, according to an emailed release from Ittihadiya. The meeting was also attended by the Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority Vice Admiral Mohab Mamish and the Minister of Transportation. The Minister of Transportation signed an MOU between his ministry’s maritime transportation sector and the Port of Singapore Authority to enhance cooperation between the two entities.

The decision by airlines including Air France and Lufthansa to avoid Sinai overflights is “irresponsible,” Foreign Affairs Minister Sameh Shoukry said, according to Amwal Al Ghad. Shoukry said their decision could cause significant damage to Egyptian tourism as it gives off a false message of insecurity.

ENERGY

EGAS supplying medium-users with energy since last month, intensive users to follow
Medium-sized industrial users of gas are being supplied fully with natural gas since last month, a source at EGAS said. Gradually, energy intensive users will be supplied until all of their needs are met. With the drop in temperatures, the demand for electricity fell, pulling down the demand from power stations with it, the source added. This allowed EGAS to divert more gas to industry especially as supplies are set to increase with the activation of the second FSRU and having it begin operations. (Read in Arabic)

Rosneft to send Egypt six fuel oil shipments before 2015’s end
EGPC will import six shipments of fuel oil from Rosneft by the end of 2015, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla told Reuters. “Egypt’s oil ministry said in July it had signed initial agreements with Rosneft to supply benzine and bitumen, as well as 24 LNG cargoes for state gas company EGAS over two years starting from the fourth quarter of 2015,” Reuters says. (Read)

Electricity Ministry’s long term renewable energy strategy discussed at German Embassy roundtable
The Electricity Ministry plans to grow the grid’s dependence on renewable energy to 65% by 2050, reports Al Borsa. It plans to do so by increasing renewable energy projects with the private sector to where 20% of the grid will come from these by 2022, said Electricity Minister Mohamed El Sebky at a roundtable organized by the German Embassy. The ministry will then focus on raising these projects’ collective capacity to where 40% of the grid would be sourced by renewable energy by 2035. New solar and wind BOO projects will then raise this figure to 65% by 2050, Al Borsa reports. (Read in Arabic)

Egypt looks to buy 481K tons of diesel in December
The EGPC is looking to purchase 481K tons of diesel for delivery in December through a tender. The EGPC also issued a tender for seven shipments of diesel at 30-33K tons per shipment. Both tenders are set to expire on 10 November. (Read in Arabic)

INFRASTRUCTURE

EU contributes EUR 68 mn grant to World Bank project connecting homes to natural gas
The European Union is granting Egypt EUR 68 mn to finance connecting Egypt homes with the natural gas network, according to a release from the office of the delegation of the European Union to Egypt. This project will also receive funding from the French Development Agency (AFD) with a EUR 70 mn loan in addition to the original USD 500 mn loan pledged by the World Bank. (Read, pdf)

Electricity Ministry reviews hospital development plans involving GE and El Sewedy
Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker will review plans to develop an outdated hospital, in light of an offer by General Electric (GE) to build it as part of its CSR project. The ministry had approached El Sewedy Electric to develop said hospital and is expecting a response this week. The three-year project is expected to cost EGP 400 mn. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

Government moves against counterfeit drugs, which make up 5% of the market
The Health Ministry, the Pharmacists’ Syndicate and French pharmaceutical company Sanofi launched a campaign on Monday to flush out counterfeit drugs from the market using a barcode tracking system, said Health Minister Dr. Ahmed Emad El Din, adding that these drugs comprise 5% of the market. Speaking at a press conference hosted by the French embassy, he stated that the campaign will use new barcodes developed by Sanofi to properly monitor and track the authenticity of imported meds. The French Ambassador André Parant contradicted the Minister, saying that counterfeits make up around 30% of the Egyptian market. This comes as the Pharmacists Syndicate plans to implement a Wash-Out agreement to cleanse Egyptian pharmacies from expired medication. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE + HOUSING

Sheikh Zayed City Development Authority sells 13.5 km2 land for medical and education projects
The Sheikh Zayed City Development Authority sold 13.5 Km2 of land earmarked for education and health projects for EGP 63.5 mn in an auction. This land—divided into five parcels—went to Amgad for Touristic and Real Estate Investments, while the rest went to individual investors. Three parcels would be used for education projects, with the remaining two will be the sites for the development of medical centers. (Read in Arabic)

TELECOMS + ICT

e-Finance to bid for IT systems PPP tender
Electronic payment solutions company, e-Finance, plans to leverage its IT infrastructure and its experience in PPP projects to bid for the public-private partnership tender to upgrade and develop IT systems for the Commercial and Real Estate Registries, said its head of business development Haitham Tarabik. The tender—which was issued by the ICT Ministry—was part of the ones on offer from the third annual PPP conference held last month (not at the EEDC, as the Arabic original claims). E-finance had partnered with the government on implementing electronic tax payments. (Read in Arabic)

AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION

GB Auto looking to build USD 1 bn plant at Suez Canal Axis –Ghabbour
The leading automotive assembler and distributor is considering a USD 1 bn production facility in the Suez Canal Axis development zone, Chairman Raouf Ghabbour told Amwal Al Ghad. The decision to move forward with the investment plan hinges on the government’s adoption of a strategy to support the automotive industry in Egypt. Ghabbour wants auto manufacturers exempted from any new tax that could replace the customs tariffs that are set to expire in 2019 and says the adoption of such a policy would attract international manufacturers. (Read in Arabic)

LEGISLATION + POLICY

Competition authority discusses legislative amendments at workshop
The Egyptian Competition Authority held a workshop on Tuesday to discuss amendments to the Competition Protection Law, which included antitrust experts from Germany and Lithuania. Among the key issues discussed were the amendments regarding punitive actions against violators which may include 12% of sales of the flagged product, or EGP 500 mn in fines. The workshop looked into waving these fines for antitrust cases. You can read the full text of the law published in Al Dostor here. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

Prosecution places top Brotherhood leadership back on terrorism list
The Prosecutor General’s Office readmitted 13 Ikhwan leaders to the list of recognized terrorists on Sunday, including Mohamed Badie, Khairat Al Shater, Essam El Erian, Mohamed El Beltagy and Saad El Husseiny. These leaders had been taken off the list by the Appellate Court, after the Prosecution failed to include the supportive ruling of the Criminal Court in its motion to keep them on the terrorism list. (Read in Arabic)

Social Solidarity Ministry to sign funding agreement with Tahya Masr
The Social Solidarity Ministry plans to sign an agreement with the Tahya Masr Fund for EGP 100 mn to fund programs targeting children. These include its recently launched EGP 48 mn “Children Without Shelter” program, aimed at testing homeless children for Hepatitis C. The Ministry will also sign an agreement with the Ministry of Higher Education to help integrate special needs individuals into universities. (Read in Arabic)

OTHER BUSINESS NEWS OF NOTE

Egypt’s national plan to combat climate change is ready, Fahmy says
Egypt’s plan to combat climate change is completed and ready to be presented at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Pairs, Environmental Affairs Minister Khaled Fahmy said. Prime Minister Sherif Ismail reviewed the plan and, after minor amendments, it was approved by the cabinet. The plan includes the government’s attempts to achieve sustainable development and reduce the impact of climate change. (Read in Arabic)

Germany to lend Egypt EUR 54 mn to fund solar energy projects, vocational training
Germany is making EUR 54 mn available in loans to Egypt, according to Germany’s ambassador to Cairo, Julius Georg Luy. EUR 30 mn will be directed toward building a solar power station, EUR 20 mn for vocational training programmes, and EUR 4 mn for education programmes. Luy added that Germany reiterated its commitment to Egypt and pledged continued technical and financial support. (Read in Arabic)

REGIONAL

Moody’s maintains stable outlook on Kuwaiti banking system
Moody’s has maintained its stable outlook on Kuwait’s banking system, the ratings agency said in a release accompanying its report on Tuesday. “Government spending, accelerated implementation of infrastructure projects and strong domestic consumption will continue to support the banks’ favourable operating environment, despite lower hydrocarbon revenues,” said Alexios Philippides, an analyst at Moody’s. Among some of the releases takeaways, Moody’s expects non-performing loans (NPLs) to drop to around 3% of gross loans for 2015-16, down from 4% for rated banks at year-end 2014 and returning to levels recorded before the 2008-09 global financial crisis, and down from a peak of 10.2% in 2009. (Read)

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Your child is probably not the next Lionel Messi: The Foreign Affairs Ministry issued a warning (Read in Arabic) to Egyptians against being conned by fraudsters into believing they are getting professional footballing contracts abroad. The con artists reportedly ask their targets to provide enough funds to cover their living expenses once they move out of Egypt.

BY THE NUMBERS

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USD CBE auction (Tuesday, 03 November): 7.9301 (unchanged since Sunday, 18 October)
USD parallel market (Tuesday, 03 November): 8.50 (+0.10 since Sunday, 01 November)

EGX30 (Tuesday): 7432.96 (-0.02%)
Turnover: EGP 351.6 mn (19% below the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: -16.73%

Foreigners: Net Long | EGP +20.5 mn
Regional: Net Long | EGP +11.1 mn
Local: Net Short | EGP -31.6 mn

Retail: 63.7% of total trades | 59.0% of buyers | 68.3% of sellers
Institutions: 36.3% of total trades | 41.0% of buyers | 31.7% of sellers

Foreign: 19.4% of total | 22.3% of buyers | 16.5% of sellers
Regional: 10.8% of total | 12.3% of buyers | 9.2% of sellers
Domestic: 69.8% of total | 65.4% of buyers | 74.3% of sellers


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PHAROS VIEW

Excess Liquidity Parked at the CBE Approaches Historic Highs, Driven by Deficit Monetization

The size of excess liquidity parked by banks at the CBE soared to EGP 159.6bn by the end of September 2015, which is its highest since September 2008 and close to its historic peak of EGP 193.5bn recorded in July 2008. While the September 2015 figure may seem to support the fact that commercial banks enjoy a strong liquidity base, it actually mirrors our deep concerns over the CBE’s full reliance on deficit monetization to bridge the government’s funding gap, in the absence of an adequate foreign reserve cover.

In an environment of weak balance of payments inflows, we view the surge in EGP liquidity (including excess liquidity at the CBE) as a liability rather than an asset. We fully understand that the CBE has been forced to adopt this policy to fund the budget gap. Moreover, supersonic growth in deposits both at the banking system level and at large commercial banks have been largely underpinned by the CBE’s deficit monetization operations. We continue to claim that the deficit monetization operations undertaken by the CBE cannot be long-lived. What does this mean to your strategy? We continue to urge clients to increase the cash component in their portfolios and, within equities, prioritize defensives and devaluation-positive stocks. Tap here for the full background.
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