Wednesday, 14 October 2015

Happy Islamic New Year, y’all. Enjoy the day off.
(and: Egypt ‘urgently’ seeks USD 2 bn World Bank loan)

TL;DR

Administration ‘urgently’ seeks USD 2 bn World Bank loan (Speed Round)

Exporters say it’s time to declare CBE’s FX policy a failure (Speed Round)

Egypt overtaking South Africa as the continent’s second-largest economy (Speed Round)

Abraaj seeks controlling stake in Ibn Sina Hospital, could finalize Nile Badrawi acquisition in “days” (Speed Round)

Will the House of Reps be a toothless tiger from inception? (Speed Round)

Fertilizer producers meet oil minister on natural gas pricing (Energy)

AbbVie releases Hepatitis-C treatment in Egypt (Health + Education)

By the Numbers + The one chart you need to keep your eye on

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Prime Minister Sherif Ismail will speak at the opening of the two-day Akhbar Al Youm Economic Conference today, along with 14 other ministers drawn largely from the cabinet economic group, AMAY reports. The conference will feature panels on financial and monetary policy, as well as manufacturing and agricultural policies, and issues with the private sector, tourism, and real estate investment in Egypt.

As we send out this morning’s issue, the 2015 Democratic Candidate debate is underwayon CNN, featuring Senator Bernie Sanders, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and three other people of indeterminate identity. Some of the highlights include:

  • Sanders: ‘People are sick of hearing about Clinton’s emails,’ (Watch, running time: 1:04)
  • Gov. Chafee questions Hillary Clinton’s judgment on Iraq, (Watch, running time: 2:12)
  • Democratic candidates name enemies they’re proud of (Watch, running time: 1:18)

Le Marché, the largest furniture and home exhibition in Egypt and the wider MENA region, kicks-off tomorrow, running through Sunday, 18 October.

Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry departed to New York on Monday to take part in the United Nations General Assembly session today to elect five rotating, non-permanent seats on the UN Security Council. Egypt is running unopposed for one of two available seats designated for Africa often referred to as the “Arab swing seat,” which alternates every odd year between the Arab states in North Africa and those in Asia.

Enterprise is off tomorrow and Friday and will return on Sunday morning. We hope you’re enjoying a day off today or a long weekend if you’re taking tomorrow instead.

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ON THE HORIZON

Egyptians abroad head to the polls this weekend in the first stage of balloting to elect a House of Representatives. Egyptian expats hailing from these districts will vote 17-18 October; those in Egypt will vote on 18-19 October. The first round of voting will cover Giza, Fayoum, Beni Suef, Minya, Assiut, New Valley, Sohag, Qena, Luxor, Aswan, Red Sea, Beheira, Alexandria and Marsa Matrouh. First stage results will be announced on 30 October, with the result from the second stage expected by 4 December.

There will be no additional holidays on account of the elections, the Minister of Local and Administrative Development said yesterday. Only students and government employees at schools used as polling stations will have days off.

The Third Annual Public Private Partnership (PPP) conference will be held under the auspices of Prime Minister Sherif Ismail at the Four Seasons Hotel Nile Plaza, Cairo between 19-20 October.

11-20 November: 37th Cairo International Film Festival.

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Tuesday’s episode of Hona El Assema focused squarely on the upcoming parliamentary elections. Host Lamees El Hadidy sat down with members of the “For the love of Egypt” alliance, including coalition leader Sameh Seif El-Yazal and candidates Ali Abdelaal, Mai Batran, and Amna Naseer.

Sameh Seif El-Yazel: “This alliance comprises candidates belonging to 10 distinct parties. Members of the coalition share a unified vision, but their electoral platforms differ… Some of our candidates are former NDP member whose hands were not tarnished by corruption… Islamist parties will not be able to win more than 35 to 40 parliamentary seats. We are not saddened by Ahmed Shafik’s party’s decision to leave the coalition. We look forward to competing against them… We will support President El Sisi in parliament. This, however, does not mean that we will refrain from criticizing the government.”

Over on Al Kahera wal Nas: “Islamist thought has infiltrated every segment of Egyptian society, reaching even the highest levels of government,” Ibrahim Eissa said last night, opening his eponymous show. “Their backward thoughts and extremism has ruined Egyptians. Look at what they did to Naguib Mahfouz. The man who tried to kill him was illiterate. He heard that there was a fatwa calling for his [Naguib Mahfouz] death and abided by the ‘command’ without thinking twice. This is the result of a perverted ideology.” growled Eissa.

The host then shifted his criticism for the second night in a row to those he referred to as “the sycophantic supporters of President El Sisi.” It’s a touchy subject in the current climate, and Eissa deserves kudos for bringing it bluntly into the open.

“There are some parliamentary candidates who have announced that they intend to amend the constitution with the objective of increasing the power of the president and limiting the role of parliament. I ask of these people: Why are you nominating yourself for parliament if you think that are unworthy of wielding this power? These people talk of the constitution as if it were some type of ‘dirty’ document. They do not believe in democracy and merely wish to transform Egypt into a dictatorial state.”

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SPEED ROUND

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The Sisi administration has requested an ‘urgent loan’ of USD 2 bn from the World Bank in two tranches, according to an unnamed government source speaking to Al Borsa. The Ministry of International Cooperation requested that the first USD 1 bn tranche be received by December 2015 and the remaining USD 1 bn to be received by early 2016. The move comes as part of the Ismail cabinet’s bid to maintain a base level of FX reserves while continuing to fund infrastructure development. The loan would have an interest rate of 3-4% to be paid over 25 years in five-year increments.

Meanwhile: Exporters used yesterday’s news that non-oil exports sagged nearly 29% last month (and are down 19% in 9M2015) to advance their policy agenda. Speaking in his capacity as head of the Food Export Council, Edita chief Hani Berzi joined his counterparts from other export councils to call on the Ismail government to both take seriously industry’s concerns and to finally admit that the Central Bank of Egypt’s current FX policy is not working.

Foreign currency, industrial inputs will be made available to producers, Ismail says:Prime Minister Sherif Ismail promised that foreign currency and industrial inputs will be made available to domestic manufacturers, in meeting with Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce (FEDCOC). Ismail also vowed to maintain the control over the market without violating the principles of a market economy. He also added that the government will assess the goods currently awaiting customs clearance at ports and will allocate foreign currency to them according to their strategic importance nationally. (Read in Arabic)

“Egypt nears number two spot in Africa”: Charles Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital, states that Egypt is close to overtaking South Africa as the second-largest economy in Africa in dollar terms, largely due to a function of the exchange rate, noting that the EGP is now one of the most overvalued emerging market currencies and the South African rand as one of the most undervalued. Jason Tuvey of Capital Economics states that if Egypt can experience a “a period of rapid growth” over the next five years, Egypt could permanently overtake South Africa’s place. Nigeria remains the largest economy on the continent. (Read in FT, paywall. The story has crossed over into the domestic press, with Al Borsa providing a near-full translation here.)

Abraaj seeks controlling share in Ibn Sina Hospital, looks to finalize Nile Badrawi acquisition in “days”: The top emerging markets private equity firm is in talks for a controlling stake in Ibn Sina Specialized Hospital, Al Borsa says. Abraaj, through its subsidiary North Africa Hospital Holdings, has reportedly already entered negotiations to buy a 55-60% stake, with talks expected to close in about two weeks, a source noted. Abraaj recently acquired Cleopatra Hospital for EGP 770 mn and 52% of Cairo Specialized Hospital in a EGP 106 mn transaction. The newspaper notes that the PE outfit is expected to finalise the full buyout of Nile Badrawi Hospital “in days.” The Badrawi acquisition leaked to the press weeks ago, but has never been confirmed by Abraaj. (Read in Arabic)

Concerns on unwieldiness, longevity and nature of incoming parliament: A spate of articles have been published in recent days suggesting the House of Representative we’re about to elect will to a great extent be an ineffective piece of window dressing. Nathan Brown writes for the Washington Post’s Monkey Blog: ‘Why Egypt’s new parliament will be born broken.’ “The opposition cannot win, since there is no real opposition running … The Supreme Constitutional Court—which has almost never met an Egyptian electoral law it liked—could strike down the law by which the parliament was elected. Such a ruling could, depending on how the court rules, require immediate dissolution of the body … Egypt’s parliament may be born broken. It was built that way not in an act of intelligent design but by a combination of ad hoc decision-making, historical inertia and absent-mindedness.”

… Nathan Brown is also quoted in Reuters In Egypt, elections look set to cement return to the past.’ Brown is quoted as saying: “It will be difficult to cobble together a majority. The regime is likely to find it a nuisance. Individual deputies will have an incentive to make a lot of noise or to secure benefits for those who elected them.” Sameh Seif Elyazal, the ex-intelligence officer and head of the “For the love of Egypt” electoral alliance, says he will seek to form a bloc to lead the house, Reuters reports. Adds a former NDP candidate running in Minya: “I am, to begin with, against the article in the constitution that says I can withdraw confidence in or accept the naming of the prime minister,” according to ex-NDP candidate Amro Azzam running in Minya. “These are things that should be the domain of the president we elected.”

… Ziad A. Akl notes in his piece for DNE ‘On that upcoming parliament‘ on the inherent contradiction of Egyptians participating in an election that “is not only a non-representative and non-political procedure; it is also a careful process of re-configuring political elites and a fine example of implementing a democracy from above … all the signs point to how Egyptians are on the brink of electing non-political candidates for a political institution.”

Having a new parliament at last won’t come cheap: EGP 1.5 bn allocated for parliamentary, local council elections, says Head of the State Budget sector at the Ministry of Finance Mohamed Abdel Fattah. The funding will encompass both the upcoming parliamentary elections, as well as the local council elections held throughout the 27 governorates later this fiscal year,Al Mal reported.

Joint military exercises between Egypt and the United States will resume “soon,” Air Marshal Younes El Masry, the Commander-in-Chief of the Egyptian Air Force, told Al Ahram. El Masry was interviewed by the newspaper in commemoration of the Air Force day. El Masry added that Egypt’s new Mistral-class ships could be deployed on missions in a very short period, once assessments are completed.

The next move for Egyptian banks is to be more aggressive in expanding retail lending and to tap Egypt’s large unbanked population, Amira Salah-Ahmed writes in The Africa Report. Despite the political turmoil of recent years, Egypt’s banking sector remained resilient, managing to reduce its non-performing loans and maintain liquidity levels. The challenge for Egyptian banks, however, continues to be how to grow in the retail sector. “Growing the customer base is an overall goal for banks since the percentage of Egypt’s banked population is still considerably small at around 10%, where it has lingered for the past several years… it has been a goal of successive governments to increase participation in the formal economy,” Salah-Ahmed writes commenting on CIB’s acquisition of Citibank’s retail portfolio in Egypt. The article notes the government’s plan to pay public sector employees electronically, with CI Capital Monsef Morsy quoted as saying “out of the six mn public employees, less than two mn have bank accounts.”

Petroleum Minister Tarek El-Molla and EGAS head Khaled Abdel Badei met with Cyprus’ Energy Minister Yiorgos Lakkotrypis in Cairo this week, accompanied by a Cypriot delegation to discuss activating signed memoranda of understanding and cooperation in energy exploration initiatives. Discussions also revolved around both the Zohr field and the Aphrodite field, and how both countries can share infrastructure, Al Masry Al Youm reports.

Qalaa Holdings is reviewing offers for agrifoods subsidiaries Rashidi El-Mizan and Dina Farms, having received final bids earlier this week. The company is expected to announce the outcome of the sale process in the coming days. Sources “close to the company” told Al Borsa that the highest value for Rashidi El-Mizan was USD 100 mn, while the highest offer for Dina Farms was USD 150 mn.

MOVES- Emaar Misr announced that Mohammed Alabbar, founder of parent Emaar Properties of Dubai, has become the company’s executive chairman. Alabbar, who was Emaar Misr’s chairman and managing director from inception, was going to step down to become a non-executive chairman when Mohamed El Dahlan named as managing director in August.

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Ahmed Moussa continues to make headlines in the international press, with pieces in bothForeign Policy magazine and the totally-objective and neutral Al Jazeera over the news of his mistaking footage from Russian strikes on ISIS in Syria with that of a 2010 video game. Hey, at least the video game was Russian. In response, Moussa on his program said that given that they work for 8, 9 orsometimes even 10 hour work days, that mistakes are bound to be made. Further, “I’m only human,” Moussa claimed. Caution: The intensity, sincerity and fervor of his nationalism may force viewers to feel inferior by comparison. (Watch in Arabic, running time: 7:36. Experienced time:variable, nonlinear.)

WORTH READING

The Benefits of Getting Comfortable With Uncertainty: In the current climate of political polarization in Egypt, between not just two extremes, but multiple extremes branching out in different directions like the spokes of a wheel — the Brotherhood in one direction, the Salafis in another, Hezb El Tante in another direction altogether — this recent piece by Julie Beck for The Atlantic traces the origin of extremism to the reactionary discomfort of dealing with the inherent uncertainty of the world. Author Jamie Holmes is quoted at length: “Extremism of any kind is characterized by a very high need for closure and a distaste for ambiguity. After the [Second World] war there was a psychologist, Else Frenkel-Brunswik, and she basically reversed Jaentsch. She suggested that actually it’s the intolerance for ambiguity that characterizes the unhealthy mind.” (Read)

WORTH WATCHING

The Second Call, another, (yes, another) journey into the mind of Omar Adel. (Watch in Arabic, running time: 1:57)

DIPLOMACY

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met with Arab League Secretary General Nabil El Araby on Tuesday, according to an emailed release from Ittihadiya. El Araby reviewed the latest developments taking place in the Palestinian territories, as well as the emergency meeting that was convened earlier on Tuesday by the Arab League. The president also discussed with El Araby the ongoing crises in Syria, Libya and Yemen, with President El Sisi stressing the importance of maintaining the territorial integrity and national institutions of all three states. Mr. El Araby reviewed current efforts to amend the Arab League’s charter in order to improve the mechanisms of joint Arab action and enhance its ability to respond to various challenges.

ENERGY

Shell offers Egyptian ports technology to curb spread of coal dust
Shell will offer Egyptian ports the opportunity to acquire technology to curb the spread of coal dust at the points where it is handled and stored, Al Borsa reports. The technology on offer limits the environmental impact of coal dust, the head of energy sales at Shell Egypt said, noting Shell has previously implemented this solution in other projects. Shell has already begun talks with the ports that are expected to handle coal shipments, including Alexandria, Dekheila, and Adabiya. (Read in Arabic)

Oil Ministry to meet with fertiliser producers to discuss natural gas pricing
The oil ministry is holding a meeting next week with fertiliser producers to discuss natural gas supplies and pricing. The ministry will discuss its proposition to commit to supplying 50% of the fertiliser plants’ gas needs at USD 9 per mmBtu through energy imports. Sources indicate that the proposal would not be accepted, as the Agriculture Ministry has indicated that it will not increase the price set for subsidized fertilizers, and has already set its output quota for the winter season as we reported yesterday. The source added that the government claims that international prices have not increased, neglecting the producers’ perspective that energy and input prices have risen. If the government does not agree to a price increase, the source says, producers will not be able to meet their output quotas. (Read in Arabic)

Government to monitor LPG warehouses during the winter season
The government will monitor all LPG warehouses during winter, a source told Egypt Oil & Gas. The move comes as part of the government’s efforts to expand oversight and tighten control over fuel smuggling. The monitoring process is expected to being from the last week of December. The Oil Ministry’s basic plan is to have 1.1 mn LPG cylinders provided daily across warehouses, an amount that could be expanded in cases of shortages. (Read)

Total to extend exploration bid off Cypriot coast
Total is extending is natural gas exploration programme of the coast of Cyprus after failing to find any exploitable hydrocarbons in previous attempt. “The firm will sign an agreement to provide for geological surveys in a different area but no drilling,” according to Cyprus’ Energy Minister George Lakkotrypis. Minister Lakkotrypis is Cairo currently holding meetings to “review ways of further strengthening cooperation between Cyprus and Egypt on hydrocarbons issues.” (Read)

ASORC seeks USD 1.4 bn in foreign funding
The Assiut Oil Refining Company (ASORC) is seeking USD 1.4 bn in foreign funding to finance expansions and development at its Assiut refinery to boost production capacity. ASORC is also deciding between a consortium led by National Bank of Abu Dhabi and the National Bank of Egypt, on the one hand, and another led by HSBC and Banque Misr as arrangers. (Read in Arabic)

Waste-to-energy feed in tariff scheme to be announced by February 2016
The government will announce a feed-in tariff scheme for waste-to-energy projects by February 2016, said Dr. Mohamed El Sobky, CEO of the New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA). The authority is currently debating the pricing scheme with the environment and petroleum ministries, as well as the Egyptian Electric Utility And Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency. (Read in Arabic)

INFRASTRUCTURE

Giza Governorate allocates EGP 170 mn to building water plant in Hawamdia
The Giza Governorate has begun constructing a water treatment plant in Hawamdia at a total cost of EGP 170 mn, to help redress water issues in the city’s rural villages. The plant will have a total daily capacity of 70k cubic metres, and will be constructed in two phases. The first phase will be completed by mid-2016, while the second phase will be completed three months later. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

AbbVie officially releases ‘Quervo’ Hepatitis-C treatment in Egypt
AbbVie has officially released its ‘Quervo’ Hepatitis-C drug in Egypt, in a ceremony at the Pyramids attended by the health minister, investment minister and the US ambassador. Quervo, the first orally administered treatment for Hepatitis-C in Egypt, has a 100% cure rate, according to Abbvie’s announcement, as reported by Al Borsa. There is no information on the drug under the ‘Quervo’ brand on AbbVie’s website, but is likely the same Hepatitis-C drug cocktail marketed by the company under the name Viekira Pak, which boasts a cure rate in the high 90s. Read the factsheet for Viekira Pak here, (pdf).

UNDP report shows 30% of teachers unqualified
The UNDP’s Egypt’s Progress towards Millennium Development Goals issued a report in collaboration with Supply Ministry outlining the challenges to the Egyptian education system. The report states that 30% of pre-college (K-12) teachers have not received official qualifications to practice their profession. The report also shows that 35% of middle school students were illiterate, and that elementary school classes have an average of 43 students. The report declares that 17 mn people over the age of 10 are illiterate. Some surveys, such as the one administered by CARE Egypt, an NGO that collaborates with the Ministry of Education, paints an even grimmer picture: CARE found illiteracy rates in some schools as high as 80%, while reporting that the size of some classrooms in urban areas can reach up to 100 students. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE + HOUSING

Government looking to add Sheikh Khalifa City to New Administrative Capital; Canadian companies express interest in administrative capital
The government is considering annexing the Sheikh Khalifa City housing project to the new administrative capital. This would allow more low-income citizens to be included in the plans for the project. Sheikh Khalifa City, the construction of which is backed by the UAE, is planned on an area of ​​518 feddans, and was offered under former President Hosni Mubarak. Negotiations for it had stalled between 2011-2014 until the government concluded the protocol for the project in January. Sheikh Khalifa City would include 4k housing units ranging between 90-120 sqm, sources told Al Masry Al Youm. (Read in Arabic)

… In related news, several Canadian companies have reportedly entered into negotiations with the housing ministry to possibly participate in infrastructure projects for the new administrative capital, said Fayed Ezzedine, President of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Cairo, who stopped short of naming the companies. Canadian firms have also expressed interest in the Suez Canal Development Corridor, he claimed. (Read in Arabic)

Egyptian Contractors consortium calls for lower housing prices
The Egyptian Contractors consortium have urged real estate investors and developers to lower housing prices across all income categories in order to curb declining sales. Omar Tahtawy who heads the consortium, (which is in charge redeveloping Ramlat Boulaq informal settlement) added that weak foreign currency reserves have limited the ability of developers to purchase supplies and pay employees. According to a company press release, a Tahya Misr Real Estate conference is in the works to discuss industry-wide problems. (Real in Arabic)

Housing Ministry taps EGP 100 mn from urban renewal fund to develop Al Asmarat, Tel Al Aqarib
Housing Minister Moustafa Madbouly approved withdrawing EGP 100 mn from the Informal Settlement Development Fund (ISDF) to complete the Al Asmarat Moqatam resettlement program and the redevelopment of the Tel Al Aqarib informal settlement. Speaking at a meeting with ministry officials, Madbouly said that the government has redeveloped 24 of the 112 informal settlements most in need of redevelopment in Manshiat Nasr, Old Cairo, and Dar El Salam. (Read in Arabic)

** Further reading in Real Estate + Housing: Urban researcher Sarah Sabry makes a compelling argument against the dissolution of the Ministry of Urban Renewal and Informal Settlements headed by Laila Iskander and its subsequent relegation to the Ministry of Housing. Read the original in Arabic in Al Shorouk or Mada Masr’s English translation.

TELECOMS + ICT

NOOR expands retail services beyond Cairo, cancels public Wi-Fi programme, plans to invest EGP 50 mn
NOOR ADSL announced it is opening a new branch retail store in Alexandria, its first branch outside of Cairo. Amwal Al Ghad is reporting that NOOR is planning to invest EGP 50 mn in the upcoming period. The new store marks NOOR’s continued expansion into the retail segment and the official launch of its retail services outside of Cairo. NOOR’s Chairman, Basel Dalloul said the company picked Alexandria to launch its operation outside Cairo after having signed a “cooperation protocol with the governorate of Alexandria recently to spread Wi-Fi services in public places.” Dalloul’s remarks were premature as the company later yesterday said the public Wi-Fi programme was cancelled due to security reasons. (Read)

Damage to two telecom cables affecting communication in South Sinai now repaired
Damages to two telecommunications cables affected services in South Sinai, Telecom Egypt said, as reported by Al Masry Al Youm. The reported damages were to the Taba-Nuweiba and Suez-Ras Sedr cables. In a follow-up press release sent by TE, the company confirmed that the repair work is now complete and that service has been restored.

AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION

Oil Ministry to implement program to develop ports of Dekheila and Wady Feiran
The ports of Dekheila and Wady Feiran are undergoing development projects to expand their capacities to be able to receive larger petroleum product tankers, an Oil Ministry source said. The source added that the move is aimed at allowing for more butane gas imports specifically and is part of the Oil Ministry’s project to develop the domestic fuel transportation network. Upon completion, the ports are expected to be able receive around 30-45k tonnes and also have larger storage capacities. (Read in Arabic)

BANKING + FINANCE

Nabq Sinai mulls going public, picks CI Capital for IPO
Nabq Sinai is planning to list 35% of its shares on the stock market in an IPO, Chairman Hossam Attiya said. The company will list existing and new shares with the aim of increasing its capital to EGP 60 mn. Al Mal reports that the company has picked CI Capital to manage the IPO. (Read in Arabic)

NBK receives EGP 50 mn loan from mortgage fund for real estate finance loans
NBK has signed an EGP 50 mn loan agreement with the Mortgage Finance Fund to fund real estate finance services to lower income clients, says the bank’s chairman Yasser Hassan. The loans would be for individuals whose income does not exceed EGP 2250 and families whose household income is below EGP 3000. Loans would be for homes not exceeding EGP 150K. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

Egypt is targeting USD 10 bn in foreign investments this year, says Salman
Egypt is targeting USD 10 bn in direct foreign investments this current fiscal year, says Investment Minister Ashraf Salman. He added that Egypt is line to achieve a GDP growth rate of 5.2% to 5.5%. Speaking on dwindling forex reserves at the American Chamber of Commerce conference, he cited the USD 4 bn loan the government requested from the World Bank and the AfDB, and land sales to expatriate Egyptians as the government’s strategy to stem outflows. He adds that early land reservations purchased by expatriate citizens have reached USD 800 mn, and expects that the project will achieve USD 2.2 bn. (Read in Arabic)

GAFI to sign MoUs with Gulf investors for USD 12 bn in projects -GAFI chief
GAFI plans to sign MoUs for 10 major projects in Matrouh Governorate worth USD 12 bn with Emirati and Saudi investors, said GAFI chief Alaa Omar. These MoUs are expected to be signed at an investment conference to be held in Matrouh from 24-25 October. These projects include tourist resorts, land reclamation, housing developments, and manufacturing projects. (Read in Arabic)

Prime Minister meets with investors to discuss economy, investment obstacles
Prime Minister Sherif Ismail met with the governing board of the Egyptian Union for Investors Association, headed by Mohamed Farid Khamis. Among the major complaints brought to Ismail’s attention was excessive taxation on mines and a real estate tax on factories, in addition to the depreciation of the Egyptian pound. They also urged the prime minister to prioritize developing utilities to industrial zones as per “promises” by his predecessor Ibrahim Mahlab. (Read in Arabic)

NATIONAL SECURITY

An IED exploded inside Misr Railway Station in Alexandria late Tuesday evening, reportsYoum7. Authorities reportedly conducted a thorough sweep of the areas following the explosion. No casualties have yet been reported.

Port Said Criminal Court postponed on Tuesday its case against 51 defendants who were allegedly involved in the “Port Said Prison Clashes” to 31 October, reports Ahram. Morsi will be expected to provide testimony.

ON YOUR WAY OUT

BP Egypt has opened the application period for its Cambridge scholarship program for Egyptian students seeking Masters degrees at the UK-based university. Aside from having an excellent record of academic achievement, students are responsible for first obtaining admission to Cambridge University and are required to sign on work with BP Egypt in Egypt for double the period of their time of study spent at Cambridge. The submission deadline is 02 December, 2015. More information can be found here (pdf).

Egyptian Tristar Air freighter crashes in Somalia, no casualties reported: An Egyptian-registered Tristar Air Airbus A300 freighter crashed near the Somali capital Mogadishu around 1930 local time Oct. 12, according to local reports, as reported by Air Transport World. All passengers survived, with only one sustaining injuries. Dutch news agency BNO reports that all six individuals on board were Egyptian nationals. “An official at Tristar Air in Cairo told ATW the only company manager authorized to talk on the matter was at Egypt’s civil aviation ministry and was unavailable.”

BY THE NUMBERS
Powered byPharos Holding - http://www.pharosholding.com/QUICK FACT: The value of Egypt’s oil imports surged 103.6% year-on-year in May 2015.


USD CBE auction (Tuesday, 13 October): 7.7301 (unchanged since Sunday, 05 July)
USD parallel market (Tuesday, 13 October): 8.18 (+0.12 from Sunday, 05 October, Reuters)

EGX30 (Tuesday): 7669.12 (0.24%)
Turnover: EGP 566.15 mn
EGX 30 year-to-date: -14.08%

Foreigners: Net Long | EGP + 19.0 mn
Regional: Net Short | EGP – 23.1 mn
Local: Net Long | EGP + 4.1 mn

Retail: 72.0% of total trades | 71.2% of buyers | 72.8% of sellers
Institutions: 28.0% of total trades | 28.8% of buyers | 27.2% of sellers

Foreign: 14.5% of total | 16.2% of buyers | 12.9% of sellers
Regional: 9.1% of total | 7.0% of buyers | 11.1% of sellers
Domestic: 76.4% of total | 76.8% of buyers | 76.0% of sellers


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PHAROS VIEW

Bear Market Rally is Gradually Diverging from Macro Realities

The V-shaped rebound in Egyptian equities is gradually diverging from the exceptionally high risk of a disorderly depreciation or a mini-recession in the near-term, as we had warned in previous notes. As of end August 2015, only 2.6% of the monetary base (currency in circulation and cash reserves held by banks at the CBE) was backed by net foreign assets (NFA). If excess reserves held by banks at the CBE (EGP 139.8bn as of end August) are taken into account, the ratio would plunge to only 1.9%. Accordingly, the EGP is hardly backed by foreign currency and further expansion in EGP liquidity, mainly via CBE deficit monetization operations, will exert material pressure on an already fragile peg. Alarmingly, the end August 2015 ratio is far lower than the corresponding figure as of end December 2002 (11.7%), one month before the EGP nose dived versus the USD. What is even more alarming is that the CBE no longer enjoyed a net foreign “asset” position in September, following the plunge in net international reserves during the month. We are still awaiting the September NFA figures but expect a net “liability” position of cc USD 0.5bn, which would be the first time the CBE becomes indebted to the rest of the world, on a net basis, since 1992. So, in summary, the current level of reserves (and NFA) is extremely alarming and has not been seen except during periods of “acute” economic and equity market dislocations. Based on the above, we continue to advise fund managers to remain on guard until there is more visibility on Egypt’s external funding plan in Q4-15 and 2016. Click here to view the chart…

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Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

Enterprise is available without charge thanks to the generous support of HSBC Egypt (tax ID: 204-901-715), the leading corporate and retail lender in Egypt; EFG Hermes (tax ID: 200-178-385), the leading financial services corporation in frontier emerging markets; SODIC (tax ID: 212-168-002), a leading Egyptian real estate developer; SomaBay (tax ID: 204-903-300), our Red Sea holiday partner; Infinity (tax ID: 474-939-359), the ultimate way to power cities, industries, and homes directly from nature right here in Egypt; CIRA (tax ID: 200-069-608), the leading providers of K-12 and higher level education in Egypt; Orascom Construction (tax ID: 229-988-806), the leading construction and engineering company building infrastructure in Egypt and abroad; Moharram & Partners (tax ID: 616-112-459), the leading public policy and government affairs partner; Palm Hills Developments (tax ID: 432-737-014), a leading developer of commercial and residential properties; Mashreq (tax ID: 204-898-862), the MENA region’s leading homegrown personal and digital bank; Industrial Development Group (IDG) (tax ID:266-965-253), the leading builder of industrial parks in Egypt; Hassan Allam Properties (tax ID:  553-096-567), one of Egypt’s most prominent and leading builders; and Saleh, Barsoum & Abdel Aziz (tax ID: 220-002-827), the leading audit, tax and accounting firm in Egypt.