Wednesday, 7 October 2015

WhatsApp Voice is blocked and Fahmy is outta here, but Cabinet’s going nowhere.

TL;DR

No cabinet shuffle if new parliament approves its agenda, El Sisi says (Speed Round)

IMF sees Egypt growth at 4.2%, global growth is slowing on EM headwinds (Speed Round)

Slight improvement in Egypt business conditions last month (Speed Round)

WhatsApp Voice calls are blocked in Egypt, regardless of what NTRA says to the contrary (Speed Round)

Mohamed Fahmy has left the building (Egypt in the News)

Growing list of global VCs investing in MENA startups (Worth Reading)

Attend the T20’s “Innovation in Government” conference at the Four Seasons without charge (special offer)

Salafist Nour Party says the media is out to get it (Egypt Politics + Economics)

By the Numbers + Egypt’s hydrocarbon production

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

The Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will take place in Lima, Peru between 09-11 October.

ON THE HORIZON

17-19 October: The first round of voting in parliamentary elections will begin for the districts of Giza, Fayoum, Beni Suef, Minya, Assiut, New Valley, Sohag, Qena, Luxor, Aswan, Red Sea, Beheira, Alexandria and Marsa Matrouh. Egyptians abroad hailing from these districts will vote from 17-18 October, while those in Egypt will vote from 18-19 October. The first phase of voting will be followed by a second taking place in the third week of November for remaining governorates, including Cairo.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

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A SPECIAL OFFER FOR ENTERPRISE READERS

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  • How Egypt can increase its revenues to USD 200-300 bn from USD 65 bn.
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LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Ibrahim Eissa’s first week back at Al Kahera Wal Nas continued with a focus on Egypt’s nuclear program and the war in Yemen.

Eissa began his discussion on Egypt’s nuclear program by providing viewers with a summary of the views held by supporters and opponents of the initiative. The host, interestingly, refrained from offering his personal opinion on the matter. “Opponents are worried that this energy source is unsafe and not environmentally friendly. Some are rightfully worried that government will be unable to dispose of nuclear waste,” he explained, then laughed as he added: “They might have a point. Has anyone seen the horrible state Cairo Metro is in at the moment? The pollution and the lack of care. Will the reactors in Dabaa be treated similarly?

“The supporters of nuclear energy claim that nuclear safety standards have improved significantly since the Chernobyl disaster took place. By standing in the way of Egypt’s nuclear program, say its supporters, Egypt will be foregoing a substantial form of energy that could solve many of its future problems.”

Eissa then transitioned to a discussion of the Yemen war. “The president’s decision against the use of Egyptian ground troops was a brave one. Egyptian families cannot bear to hear additional news of young Egyptian men becoming martyrs,” said Eissa, who chided the UAE and Saudi Arabia for their war against the Houthis, which he claimed did nothing but strengthen Daesh. “The UAE and Saudi Arabia are transforming Yemen into something worse than Libya. Their primary goal is to remove the Houthis, disregarding the fact that the groups that will be in control of these territories after they leave are terrorists. Daesh will continue to capture more land in Yemen, as the Houthis are weakened. The Houthis are a great people, they are native to Yemen.”

Over on CBC, Lamis El Hadidy sat down with Culture Minister Helmy Nimnim for an hour-long interview that touched on his acrimonious relationship with Al Nour Party and his initiative to halt the spread of extremist ideologies among Egypt’s youth.

Nimnim: “I am not at all worried by the criticism I have received from the Al Nour Party. I have received similar criticism from organizations of this kind in the past. I will continue to speak my mind…Our cultural and ideological war against extremism will extend to Upper Egypt, the region this most prone to spread of extremism… The teaching of arts will return to Egyptian public schools soon, as it will play a fundamental role in taming extremism. The culture and education ministries will work side-by-side in order to ensure that students are protected from extremist ideas. Coordination and cooperation between ministries is necessary to the fight against terrorism… Extremist ideas have spread among our youth. Some of them have turned into terrorists, while others have become atheists.”

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A MESSAGE FROM SODIC

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This quarter, we celebrate SODIC West being awarded best mixed-use development at Cityscape; take a look back at the successful launch of Caesar, our first development on the North Coast; and give you a glimpse of our coming launches in East and West Cairo.

Click here to download our latest SODIC Quarterly Newsletter (pdf).
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SPEED ROUND

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Don’t expect big change on the policy front anytime soon: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said the current cabinet headed by Prime Minister Sherif Ismail will remain in place if the parliament approves its agenda, Reuters reported. “There is no connection between the next parliament and the government submitting its resignation, a lot of people think that but it is not true,” El Sisi said. Reuters reminds us that, once elected, the parliament will have its say over the government and can even reject the choice of Prime Minister altogether.

Against that backdrop, three ministers laid out their platforms in an interview with Al Ahramahead of today’s weekly Cabinet meeting. Finance Minister Hany Dimian said that widening the tax base and moving to a VAT — in addition to reducing subsidies and using savings there to increase spending on social welfare initiatives — would be at the top of his priority list. Petroleum Minister Tarek El Molla is prioritizing development on the upstream front, will look to boost supplies of natural gas to industry and power plants, and is aiming to connect 1.2 mn homes with natural gas. Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Magdy Al-Agaty will focus on delivery of constitutionally-mandated laws including the transitional justice law and forming an authority to supervise elections.

The IMF’s second World Economic Outlook for 2015 sees Egypt’s economy growing 4.2% in 2015-16 and 4.3% in the next fiscal year. The report, issued yesterday, says the global economy will grow at its slowest pace this year since the global financial crisis — and the fifth consecutive year in which average growth in emerging markets will fall. For domestic coverage of the report: Al-Borsa or Al-Mal or. The FT (paywall) is running with a heavy emphasis on the global nature of the slowdown — and casts no aspersions on the assertion that China will somehow grow 6.8% this year (vs. 2.6% for the U.S. economy). The WSJ, meanwhile, dwells slightly more on the role of EM in the slowdown to a global growth forecast of 3.1% from 3.3% earlier this year, while the Guardian warns of a “stagnation threat to G7 economies.” Download the full semi-annual World Economic Outlook(pdf). Get the “press highlights“ here (also pdf). Or hit the IMF’s landing page for the report (under the banner “Adjusting to lower commodity prices”) for a video of the hour-long press briefing.

Business conditions improve slightly in September: Growth in Egypt’s non-oil business sector was sustained in September, albeit at a weaker pace with the Emirates NBD reading coming in at 50.2. Output and new business orders grew as client demand grew, although the expansion rate was slower than last month. Manufacturers were able to rely more on existing stocks to fulfill order, so input buying stagnated. Employment was also reduced further still. “While the pace of growth is moderate, the survey nevertheless points to a slight improvement in domestic demand in the first quarter of Egypt’s fiscal year FY2015/16. The challenge will be to maintain this momentum through the remainder of the year,” Jean-Paul Pigat, Senior Economist at Emirates NBD, commented. You can check out the report in English orArabic (PDF).

Corporate lending takes off in Egypt as cash-rich banks flex muscles,” the FT tells us this morning (paywall). The paper’s Heba Saleh talks with banking chieftains including CIB’s Hussein Abaza and HSBC Egypt’s Jacques-Emmanuel Blanchet — as well as EFG Hermes analyst Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo — for the piece.

Egypt has been importing 200 mcf per day of natural gas from Jordan since September as part of its plan to increase gas supplies, Al Borsa reported. EGAS says it is getting the gas from the excess LNG quantities Jordan is regasifying using an FSRU docked at Aqaba. Jordan’s FSRU has a production capacity of 500 mcf per day, but the country only needs 300 mcf. The gas is being pumped through the Arab Gas Pipeline, which had been used since 2004 to pump Egyptian natural gas to Jordan, but had stopped in 2014. (We first reported on this on 29 September following comments made by the Jordanian deputy Energy Minister. The news is resurfacing following the Borsa report on Monday.)

WhatsApp calls are not working on all three mobile networks in Egypt. We were unable to get WhatsApp voice calls through on any of the three networks, and a Vodafone customer service representative tells us the service has been banned. This comes despite the NTRA’s denial that voice-over-IP apps including Viber and WhatsApp are being blocked. Text messaging using the apps still appears to be functional. Anecdotally: Readers are telling us that they’ve been informed by their mobile carriers that the NTRA told them on or about 23 August to block all calling on voice-over-IP applications. More than a dozen readers have written in since then to complain of being disconnected from mobile access to a favorite VoIP app, including Viber, Vonage, Magic Jack and WhatsApp. Vonage also appears to be blocked on ISPs TE Data and Link.

ASEC Cement has received an offer from Misr Qena Cement to acquire shares in subsidiaries ASEC Minya Cement and ASEC Ready Mix Concrete Co. Qalaa Holdings issued a press release on Monday confirming that its subsidiary ASEC Cement Holding (ACH) has received an offer from Misr Cement Qena to acquire 46.5% and 55% stakes in its subsidiaries Minya Cement. Co and ASEC Ready Mix Co., respectively. Qalaa does not place a value on the potential transaction, news of which was first reported on Sunday night. ACH’s board will meet today to discuss the offer. Qalaa, the majority shareholder in ASEC Cement, said it “supports in principle the acceptance of Misr Cement Qena’s offer.”

Rumors that the Civil Service Act has been suspended are just that — rumors — the Planning Ministry says, adding that the law is in full effect, per Al Masry Al Youm. The Cabinet Information and Decision Support Center says the government will amend the executive regulations of act after holding extensive meetings with labor organizations and civil society groups. The final draft of the executive regs should be out within days.

The Ministry of Investment is moving to restructure eight public sector holding companies, a process that began with high-level meetings with current management and which is expected to extend to the sacking of 60 leading figures older than age 65, Al Masry Al Youm reported. The news follows word earlier in the week Investment Minister Ashraf Salman had met with senior staff at the Chemical Industries Holding Company to “review their financial positions, inspect their internal governance systems, and to help evaluate future projects and set future goals.” The shakeup was to have begun with the Holding Company for Tourism, Hotels and Cinemas (HOTAC), but upon inspection, Salman found it to be turning a profit and driving improvements in the performance of its subsidiaries; the HCTC also closed a final agreement after signing an MoU at EEDC. Sources tell AMAY that the Chemical Industries Holding Company and the Metallurgical Industries Holding Company are both likely to have their leadership asked to resign following their inability to comply with the public sector restructuring plan (in Arabic) proposed by the Ministry of Investment. (See Tourism, below, for more on HOTAC.)

Egypt signed an MoU with the IFC aiming to ‘improve the investment climate,’ Al Masry Al Youm said. Investment Minister Ashraf Salman said signing the MoU aims to expedite the provision of technical assistance to the Egyptian government to improve the investment policies and investor protection. The MoU also covers cooperation in dispute resolution, Salman added.

The World Bank is holding discussions with the Egyptian government with a view to possibly expanding its social development program into the education sector and in programs targeting farmers and rural communities, said Hafez Ghanem, the World Bank’s VP of the MENA region. The move follows the signing of a USD 550 mn loan on Monday to fund waterworks and sewage systems. In a press conference in Washington DC announcing the World Bank’s development program in the MENA region, Ghanem stated that Egypt will need USD 30-35 bn in investments in addition to a further USD 10 bn in aid to develop solid infrastructure. According to Ghanem, World Bank development loans to Egypt stand at USD 1.2 bn. [Note: this last point may be a misquote, as theWorld Bank’s contribution to Egypt 2015 was USD 1.4 bn]

After initial denials, Turkish officials admit security forces dragged the dead body of a young Kurd by a rope around his neck from their vehicle, calling it a routine security procedure practiced all over the world. Turkish authorities admitted security forces dragged the dead body of 24-year old Kurd Haci Lokman Birlik on 2 October from the back of their vehicle after having shot him dead. The video may be viewed in the following link, but the images are disturbing and viewer discretion is strongly advised. (Watch in Turkish, running time 46 seconds).

… Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is quoted in the Guardian as saying: “Our interior ministry … will conduct a comprehensive investigation, not into the incident itself, but into the way in which this incident was reflected to the world.” Turkish officials claim the 24-year old was a terrorist and that his body could have been full of explosives, which required them to drag it across the ground to make that determination, calling it a routine security procedure all around the world (read in Turkish). Further complicating matters, the Birlik was the brother-in-law of pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) Sirnak deputy Leyla Birlik (read in International Business Times, note that an unrelated video is set on autoplay). The young man was an actor by profession and may be viewed in a short film here (watch in Kurdish with English and Turkish subtitles, running time: 17:26).

12 Pacific rim nations ink “secretive” trade pact; covers two-fifths of the global economy:Years of talks wrapped on Monday with a final agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership, a pact the New Zealand and Canadian press have termed “controversial and secretive,” while U.S. media have welcomed the agreement as the “largest regional trade accord in history.” The agreement, stretching from “Canada and Chile to Japan and Australia,” covers 40% of the world’s economic output and faces a long ratification process in the U.S. and beyond. The New York Times has the view from America (and a great infographic), with a focus on Obama’s coming Congressional showdown for passage of the agreement. U.S. allies, we’re reminded, see the pact as a “check on China.” The Chinese know they’re being isolated, but expect the door could be open in the future. Also worth checking out: The view fromNew Zealand and from Canada.

It is Nobel Prize season: William C. Campbell and Satoshi Omura were awarded the 2015 Nobel Prize in Medicine jointly with Youyou Tu. Campbell and Omura received the award for discovering Avermectin, a therapy against infections caused by roundworm parasites whereas Tu received the other half of the prize for discovering Artemisinin, a drug that has significantly reduced the mortality rates for Malaria patients. You can check out the official press release here (PDF). Yesterday,Takaaki Kajita and Arthur B. McDonald were awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for discovering the neutrinos mid-flight metamorphosis. The experiments conducted by the two scientists discovered a new phenomenon: neutrino oscillations. “A far-reaching conclusion of the experiments is that the neutrino, for a long time considered to be massless, must have a mass. This is of ground-breaking importance for particle physics and for our understanding of the universe,” the Nobel Prize’s official press release (PDF) said. The chemistry award will be announced today. The literature prize will be awarded on Thursday, while the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced at 11am CLT on Friday. The prize for economics will be announced on Monday, 12 October.

iSheep we may be, but we can appreciate nice tech when we see it: We were so busy messing around with Notes on the new iOS 9 and OS X El Capitan that we nearly missed the launch of Android Marshmallow, where the factory image is now available for download prior to release of the over-the-air update if you’re running a Nexus device, The Verge tells us. The Now on Tap feature looks exceptionally useful — leaving us poor iSheep wondering how long it will be before The G ports it to iOS along with Google Keep, the best ‘post-it notes’ program ever made (complete with colors, tags, OCR of images and checklists better than even OneNote‘s). Check out the official Android Marshmallow announcement. And while you’re at it, you may want to check out Microsoft’s Surface 4, unveiled yesterday. Engadget says the powerful tablet has a “laptop class“ keyboard cover, while Gizmodo notes its “bigger screen, faster guts“ along with a new stylus. Being loyal, reflexive iSheep, we’re holding out for the iPad Pro. (Though the notion of running OneNote on Windows is pretty tempting…). Microsoft also announced an actual laptop, one designed to go head-to-head with the 13” MacBook Pro. The Verge has more.

Speaking of tech: If it’s good enough for Goldman… Goldman Sachs CIO Marty Chavez — a 20-year veteran of the firm who literally believes that he heard God tell him to return to Goldman while he was cleaning a toilet in a monastery — talks with Re/Code’s Kara Swisher “about Goldman’s strategy for obtaining software, favoring open source options whenever possible, and putting the firm’s army of 11,000 engineers to work building it when it’s not.” The two also discussedSymphony, an ultra-secure Slack competitor created by Goldman and others as a reaction to revelations Bloomberg reporters spied on people’s use of Bloomberg’s messenger program. Google just took a stake in Symphony — which specifically targets both buy- and sell-side institutions as well as enterprises and individuals with security needs — in a round that valued the company at USD 650 mn. Watch the Chavez interview (run time: 33:36), learn more aboutSymphony (free for individuals, for-pay for institutions), get the low-down on its fundraising (fromBusiness Insider or the WSJ), or remember when Bloomberg was creepy.

Bloomberg has released its annual “Bloomberg Markets 50 Most Influential.” As usual, the focus is squarely on the United States, with a small side of Asia.

Lock them up and throw away the key: President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has issued a decreecriminalizing possession of firecrackers and holds those with knowledge of possession as culpable if they do not come forward. Punishment will be at least one year in prison and fines of EGP 20K-100K. The ban was made public in the Official Gazette.

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

“Canadian Ambassador Troy kindly escorted me to the gate at Cairo airport[.] A glorious end to our battle for freedom,” tweeted former Al Jazeera English Cairo bureau chief Mohamed Fahmy on Tuesday, as he departed first to London for media events with his lawyer Amal Clooney, and then eventually return to Canada, as reported by AP, the AFP and the Toronto Sun. Amal Clooney is quoted in Ahram Online as saying that Fahmy’s presidential pardon “gives us hope that things can change in Egypt.”

A baby born with a rare disorder leaving it with only one eye placed in the middle of its forehead was born to an Egyptian mother in El Senbellawein. The rare birth defect is usually caused by exposure to radiation, and the infant is not expected to survive beyond a few days. Due to the graphic content of the image and out of respect to the family we won’t be linking to the story, but news of the birth is making the rounds in some corners of the international press.

WORTH READING

The growing list of global VCs investing in MENA startups: Wamda takes a look at the international venture capital firms who have invested or are looking to invest in MENA-based startups. (Read)

IMAGE OF THE DAY

Jehan Sadat, widow of the late President Anwar Al Sadat, prepares to lay a wreath at his tomb at the Memorial of the Unknown Soldier on 6 October, 2015. (View image).

WORTH WATCHING

Before his retirement, French rugby player Sebastien ‘l’homme des cavernes’ Chabal was known for hisferocious tackling (watching time 0:18) and being one of the most aggressive post-match interviewees in the world (watching time 0:14). Now, especially after England made history by being the first ever rugby world cup host nation to exit the competition in the pool stages after getting beaten by Wales and Australia, we thought it was timely enough to show you Chabal’s very special recipe for cooking roast beef, which he describes as food that is “like most things English … can be quite bland” (watching time 01:19).

DIPLOMACY

Erdoğan: “If Russia loses a friend like Turkey, it will lose a lot,” said the Turkish demagogue in a joint press conference with Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel in Brussels on Tuesday, according to a statement from the Turkish presidency. “We cannot remain patient in the face of this. An attack on Turkey is also an attack on NATO and NATO has taken a stand against this,” Erdoğan said, in response to Russian jets violating Turkish airspace near the Syrian border over the weekend. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that the incursions do “not look like an accident and we have seen two of them,” Reuters reported.

ENERGY

Four consortiums including IEOC, BP, Total, and Edison have been awarded oil and gas concessions in the Mediterranean. The concessions are to drill eight wells and conduct 3D seismic scans of the area, for an estimated minimum investment of USD 306 mn and a USD 10 mn signing bonus. The winning consortiums are: BP and IEOC, who will be handling sector 4 North Ras El Esh; BP, IEOC and Total, who won Sector 7 North El Hamad; Edison, which won Sector 12 East Haby; and BP for Sector 14 North Tabiya. According to Al Masry Al Youm, EGAS also announced that it will launch another bid to drill in the Mediterranean in mid-2016.

Khalda begins a new phase of developing its Hydra field
Khalda Petroleum, Apache’s JV in Egypt, said it is beginning a new phase in developing its Hydra gas field in the Western Desert. Khalda is investing USD 50 mn in the project and plans to drill 23 new wells with the aim of increasing production to 10,000 bbl of crude per day and 160 mcf of natural gas per day. Following the completion of the phase, Khalda will be looking to install a compressor station to overcome drops in reservoir pressure and sustain production rates, a source said. (Read in Arabic)

Electricity Ministry connects eight power stations to national grid
The Electricity Ministry has finished connecting eight power stations to the national grid, a senior source told Al Mal. The stations connected include North Giza, Sixth of October, Ain Sokhna, and West Damietta with total production capacities of over 6,000MW. The source said connecting the stations is done with the aim of being able to unload the production capacities during next year’s summer to respond to demand increases. (Read in Arabic)

GANOPE to sign five agreements worth USD 100 mn
GANOPE is close to signing five E&P agreements worth USD 100 mn in total, according to Chairman Abu Bakr Ibrahim. The final agreements will be sign once the due legal and administrative processes are completed, he added. The agreements follow the international tender issued by GANOPE. (Read in Arabic)

USD 21 mn to increase petroleum derivatives storage capacity
EGPC is investing USD 21 mn to increase the storage capacity of butane and diesel in Alexandria and Sohag. EGPC aims to begin the project by mid-2016, sources told Al Mal. The expansion plans also include the development of the transportation network for petroleum derivatives and expanding the storage capacity generally. The source added that there are other projects currently underway to increase storage capacity in Sinai and other governorates. (Read in Arabic)

Egypt’s natural gas output drops to 4.2 bn cubic feet
Egypt’s average natural gas production output dropped to 4.2 bn cubic ft, down from 4.3 bn cubic ft last month. Average output has been dropping at a rate of 130 mcfd per month, an accelerated rate of decline from 100 mcfd during the last fiscal year. According to EGAS, this continuous drop—which has been occurring since mid-2014—has been the result of maturing fields in addition to new finds not being brought up to capacity. The biggest field to come online this year will be the Norus field, which will is expected to generate 70 mcfd when it is operational in December. (Read in Arabic)

EGPC issues two benzene imports tenders
The EGPC announced two tenders to import benzene, one to be delivered this month “as soon as possible,” the other to be delivered in November. The deadline to participate in the tender is 15 October. (Read in Arabic)

INFRASTRUCTURE

Sohag-Red Sea, El Shatt-Eyoun Moussa roads operational at total cost of EGP 1.3 bn
The General Authority for Roads and Bridges has completed the Sohag-Red Sea and El Shatt-Eyoun Moussa roads, two of the most noteworthy projects in the first phase of the national roads project, at a total cost of EGP 1.3 bn, said authority head Adel Turk. The roads will be operational within the coming period, after road signage has been posted. Ten other new roads are expected before the year is over, he added, noting that Suez Road expansions will probably be completed this month. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS + COMMODITIES

Beyti resumes operations on its Tropicana juice line
Beyti said it resumed operations on its Tropicana juice line following tests to ensure the safety and quality of output. Beyti’s CEO said production stopped because of an ‘inconsistency’ in taste, and not any issue related to the products’ safety. The Consumer Protection Agency had greenlight the resumption of operations on the line last week after ensuring that the products were safe for consumption. (Read in Arabic)   

Fancy Food to establish EGP 100 mn plant
Fancy Food, a company newly established by ex-Mass Foods executives, is preparing to build an EGP 100 mn food production facility in Egypt, said former Mass Foods boss Alaa Al Bahi. The new facility will not manufacture breakfast cereals, given the recent EGP 400 mn takeover of Mass Foods by Kellogg’s. While Al Bahi did not specify the food category, he added that the plant is expected to be completed and begin production by 4Q16. (Read in Arabic)

MANUFACTURING

Chemistry Administration buys device to expedite imported chemical testing
The state-owned Chemistry Administration is buying a USD 3.8 mn device to expedite testing of imported chemical materials, Ahram Gate reports. The aim is to reduce the time it takes for chemical raw materials to obtain customs clearances. Since 5 August, a security directive barred the release of any imported chemical material or powder prior to testing. (Read in Arabic)

Salman to meet with Tecnimont to resolve deadlock over Kima’s facilities
Investment minister Ashraf Salman will hold meetings next week with Italy’s Tecnimont to resume negotiations on ending the deadlock over the company’s contract to convert the Egyptian Chemical Industries Company’s (KIMA) ammonia fertilizer plants to natural gas from electricity. Tecnimont had halted work on the USD 730 mn project due to what it says was a security and political vacuum. The company now wants an amended feasibility study and a higher value for the contract as well as a reduction of fines levied, which alleges the Italian outfit is in breach of contract. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

Valuation dispute delays Hikma’s acquisition of EIMC – sources
The completion of the agreement to acquire EIMC United Pharmaceuticals by Jordan’s Hikma Pharmaceuticals is being delayed due to a valuation dispute, sources tell Al Borsa. Hikma is reportedly only willing to pay USD 40 mn for 98% of EIMC’s shares, USD 10 mn less than what EIMC is demanding. Hikma wants to pay the lower price due to the drop in the exchange rate. The sources added that both parties are intending to go through with the transaction, but that so far only an MoU was signed. Al Borsa expects the transaction to be completed in November. (Read in Arabic)   

REAL ESTATE + HOUSING

Al Ahly for Real Estate Development looking to invest EGP 2.5 bn in 2016
Al Ahly for Real Estate Development is planning on investing EGP 2.5 bn in projects and expansions in 2016, said Managing Director Ahmed Sabbour. Al Ahly inked 250 agreements at the CityScape conference last month, where it presented nine real estate projects. Sabbour called on Housing Minister Mostafa Madbouli to take action against bureaucratic processes that hinder licensing and infrastructure, and slow down projects. (Read in Arabic)

Housing Ministry and CSCEC agree on projects for the new capital city
The Housing Ministry has wrapped talks with the China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) on its possible role in the construction of the new administrative capital. The plan still needs cabinet signoff. (Read in Arabic)

Egyptian Contractors reaches understanding with Ramlet Boulaq informal settlement residents over redevelopment plan
The Egyptian Contractors consortium has reached an “understanding” with residents of the Ramlet Boulaq informal settlement over the redevelopment of the area. In what is being touted by the developers as a model for slum redevelopment, the understanding is based on a land sharing agreement between the developers and the residents who will be given apartments in new developments. (Read in Arabic)

TOURISM

Travco brought 502k tourists to Egypt in eight months
Travco Group brought a total of 502k tourists to Egypt in the first eight months of 2015, up from 450k in the same period from the year before. Occupancy rates at the group’s associated hotels in Sharm El Sheikh averaged at 62%, while in Makadi Bay they averaged at 65%, 71% in Hurghada, 72% in Marsa Alam, 40% in the North Coast, and 20% in Luxor. As part of its future plans, Travco is looking to expand by opening an office in China. (Read in Arabic)

HOTAC restructuring Misr Travel, could divest loss-making assets
The Holding Company for Tourism, Hotels, and Cinema (HOTAC) has decided to implement a restructuring plan for Misr Travel within the next two weeks. Misr Travel’s Chairperson said there are multiple plans being considered to salvage the company. The potential moves include shedding some of the loss making assets that are mostly concentrating in boats, floating hotels, and the Luxor hotel by transferring their ownership to HOTAC directly. (Read in Arabic)

BANKING + FINANCE

AXA explores expansion in Egypt
Insurance company AXA Egypt is currently exploring diversifying its portfolio into other sectors of the financial services industry, said its chief executive Hassan El Shabrawishi. He added that the company held exploratory meetings with EFSA, signaling its intent to expanding into real estate financing and the leasing business. (Read in Arabic)

Finance Ministry owes “Village Bank” USD 3.5 bn
The Finance Ministry owes the Principal Bank for Development and Agriculture Credit, aka the Village Bank, USD 3.5 bn. The Finance Ministry’s receivables grew from USD 1.7 bn last fiscal year, a source told Al Shorouk. The source added that the bank’s president is seeking the repayment as the bank is undergoing a restricting process. Most of the receivables concern the repayment of subsidies extended to farmers. (Read in Arabic)

SFD loans Principal Bank for Development & Agricultural Credit EGP 100 mn
The Social Fund for Development’s board approved an EGP 100 mn loan to the Principal Bank for Development & Agricultural Credit (PBDAC), to be parceled out over four tranches of EGP 25 mn, to fund agricultural projects. The SFD had signed 13 such agreements with six banks including NBE (the largest recipient) and Bank Audi totaling EGP 1.2 bn, to finance SME lending initiatives. Under the stipulations of such agreements, the SFD only releases the next tranche upon the utilization of at least 80% of the previous tranche. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

Al Nour Party says the media is out to get it
The Salafist Al Nour Party’s legal committee plans to bring charges against a number of media figures and news outlets over what it claims are concerted, “defamatory attacks.” The bearded ones are also unhappy that Pope Tawadros II has suggested Copts might want to think twice before running on a Nour Party ticket. (Read in Arabic)

Cairo University’s niqab ban controversy escalates
University professors who don the niqab have (shockingly, we know) come out against Cairo University’s ban on their wearing of the ultraconservative dress during class time. The women claim the university president’s decision violates articles 2, 9, and 11 of the Egyptian constitution, according to a group statement, released on Tuesday, reports Al Masry Al Youm. Cairo U. President Gaber Nasser denied the move violates anyone’s constitutional rights, adding that the decision “aims to bring order to instruction at public universities.”

SPORTS

Al Ahly FC sack head coach Fathy Mabrouk; Zizo named as interim coach
The board of Al Ahly Football Club, headed by president Mahmoud Taher, announced that it has sacked first team football manager Fathy Mabrouk following a 4-3 defeat in the semi-finals of CAF Confederations Cup on Sunday at the hands of South Africa’s Orlando Pirates, KingFut reports. Football operations manager Alaa Abdel Sadek was also sacked. AbdelAziz “Zizo” AbdelShafi was named interim head coach and will lead Al Ahly in the anticipated Egyptian Super Cup against rivals Zamalek on 15 Oct in the UAE. Al-Ahly failed to add a championship to its list this past season under the 64-year-old Mabrouk, including defeats against Zamalek SC in the Egyptian Cup final, finishing second in the Egyptian league. and failing to win the Confederations Cup.

…According to multiple reports, Al Ahly are considering foreign head coaches from a list that includes, among others: former Saudi national team manager Jose Peseiro, former Tunisian national team coach George Leekens, and former Libyan national team manager Marcos Bakita. Other reports point out that negotiations with the winningest coach in Al Ahly football club history, Manuel José, are still on the table. Speculation has surfaced among football analysts, including former Zamalek player turned television commentator Khaled El Ghandour, who allege that Taher and his associates in Al Ahly have no desire to bring back José, as he was an icon in former president’s Hassan Hamdy’s success. During his TV show on LTC on Sunday, El Ghandour said that current Al Ahly administration “does not stand Hassan Hamdy.” (Watch Ghandour’s comments here, running time 1:39)

ON YOUR WAY OUT

15 coalition and Yemeni government troops were killed yesterday in rocket attacks on a coalition military base and a hotel housing Yemeni government officials, including Vice President Khaled Bahah in Aden, on Tuesday, Reuters reports. Daesh has claimed responsibility for the attack,along with another on a Houthi-run mosque in Sanaa, which killed seven, Al Mal reports. According to the UAE’s official news agency WAM, four of the dead were Emiratis and one was Saudi.

Is there a passive aggressive person at your office? Is your office entirely populated by the passive aggressive? This classic SNL skit understands your pain. Watch: Passive Aggressive Pam, (running time: 4:02).

BY THE NUMBERS
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QUICK FACT: Egypt produced 3 mn tons of crude oil, condensate and butane in June 2015.


USD CBE auction (Sunday, 04 October): 7.7301 (unchanged since Sunday, 05 July)
USD parallel market (Sunday, 04 October): 8.05 (unchanged since Thursday, day, 01 October, Reuters)

EGX30 (Tuesday): Market closed.

Foreigners: Net Long | EGP +47.8 mn
Regional: Net Short | EGP -28.3 mn
Local: Net Short | EGP -19.5 mn

Retail: 36.1% of total trades |  35.9% of buyers | 36.3% of sellers
Institutions: 63.9% of total trades | 64.1% of buyers | 63.7% of sellers

Foreign: 49.5% of total | 56.6% of buyers | 42.4% of sellers
Regional: 8.9% of total | 4.7% of buyers | 13.1% of sellers
Domestic: 41.6% of total | 38.7% of buyers | 44.5% of sellers


***
PHAROS VIEW

Short equities as Egypt prepares to fight a G1 crisis

The Central Bank of Egypt is refraining from further easing despite obvious downside risks to growth and inflation. Why? In our view, there is only one plausible answer: The CBE is launching a preemptive strike against the so-called “G1 currency crisis”.

If Egypt is facing a G1 crisis, then Brazil could provide clues on the outlook for 2016. Brazil is in the middle of a G1 crisis. In 2015, the country is expected to suffer from its worst GDP contraction (e. -3%) in 25 years and the unemployment rate is at a 5-year high, mainly due to the plunge in commodity prices and the corruption scandal that marred Petrobras. Yet, despite the recession, the Central Bank of Brazil has already been raising policy rates for 2.5 years to combat the crash in the Real versus the USD (-35% in 2015YTD alone) and limit the pass-through of a weaker Real to consumer prices. During the process, MSCI Brazil plunged 50% y/y in USD terms to rank the third worst performing market during the period, after Greece (-66%) and Colombia (-52%).

This note is not intended to trigger panic among equity investors. Unlike Brazil, Egypt is a net beneficiary from lower international commodity prices. However, it is only meant to signal potentially serious headwinds to equity investors in Q4-15/early 2016 if the Egyptian government and CBE decide to be ahead of the “crisis curve” by triggering a mini-recession in the near-term.

For more background and a full discussion of what a G1 crisis really is, click here.
***


WTI: USD 49.10 (+1.17%)
Brent: USD 52.27 (+0.67%)
Gold: USD 1,148.00 / troy ounce (+0.14%)

TASI: 7,462.49 (+0.01%)
ADX:  4,554.68 (-0.22%)
DFM: 3,659.67 (+0.02%)
KSE Weighted Index: 389.77 (+0.48%)
QE: 11,686.09 (+1.01%)
MSM: 5,831.61 (-0.16%)

 

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