WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

A high-profile British trade delegation arrives in Cairo today; meanwhile, the Egyptian-Kenyan Business Forum we noted on Sunday gets underway in Nairobi with high-profile representation from both government and businesses.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

Thursday is shaping up to be a reasonably significant news day, with trading of exchange-traded funds on the EGX kicking off for the first time (more on this in Egypt Politics + Economics, below) and the Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee set to meet to mull interest rates. Also Thursday: The World Economic Forum 2015 Global Risks report is set to be released.

Forgotten when the next holiday is? We’ve added national holidays to the Calendar at the end of each day’s report following requests from a couple of you. (Oh, and the next holiday is 25 January — Revolution Day / Police Day / Callitwhateveryouwant, but it’s a three-day weekend.)

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Lamees El Hadidy hosted seasoned theater, television and film actors Nour El Sherif and Mervat Amin, among two others whose names escape (it’s the guest reviewer again — here we go).

The theme of the night for all the shows, as it is every night on Egyptian talk shows, is viewers calling in to scream over the phone regardless of their actual emotional state.

Viewers called in to Hadidy’s show to scream at the top of their lungs their praise for Nour El Sherif.

On Amr Adeeb, near the top of the show he briefly mentioned that a number of the political party leaders who met with President Abdelfattah El-Sisi today at Ittihadiya had one question on their minds: The relationship between the President and the parliamentary bloc being headed by former prime minister Kamal El Ganzouri. Later in the program, as he went through the headlines, Adeeb confirmed that the President assured assembled party representatives that there is no association between the presidency and the bloc.

Shortly afterward, Adeeb conducted what was at times a tense phone call with the governor of Alexandria, former member of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces Army Maj. Gen. Tarek El Mahdy. Adeeb took the governor to task over the breakdown of the sewage system in Alexandria yesterday, which left the coastal city looking like a nightmare version of Nasr City. Moreover, the incident led to electricity outages, due both to damage and the preventive switching-off of electricity to prevent accidents. The governor went on to emphasize that 50 trucks were pumping water out of the streets, with the main streets cleared and electricity restored to a number of areas.

As many of our readers have already seen, social media was awash yesterday in videos such as the following depicting people trying to get around in flooded streets. (Watch) One already infamous video shows someone riding around on a jet ski in the streets, about which even the worked-up Adeeb was able to chuckle as he showed the segment on his program.

Adeeb decided to have residents of Alexandria call in to the program to air their concerns directly to the governor, which led to more viewer screaming. Someone called to complain that the electricity had been switched off in his neighborhood to effect a repair and was never switched back on. Another viewer from Ibrahimiya district called in simply to say that the electricity was fixed in his area.

After the call, Adeeb went through the headlines, saying that the next planned issue for Charlie Hebdo, including the cover and planned print run of 1 mn [sic] copies was irresponsible. [Note: More on this story below in the Speed Round]

Adeeb also noted that Youssef Qaradawi condemned the attacks, ten days later, but remains conspicuously silent when Egyptians are killed in terrorist attacks in Egypt.

It was the second installment of Opposition Monday, in which Adeeb humors guests who are outside mainstream opinion. His batch of guests this time around were a little more well-spoken than last week’s. Well, one was at least. Adeeb hosted journalists Ahmed Taha El Nour, Khaled El Banshy and Ahmed Kamel. Kamel’s best point was that fuel subsidy cutting should begin with higher grades of gasoline rather than the opposite.

Adeeb: “Please, be pleasant so we can continue doing these opposition nights.”

Youssef El Hosseiny had someone on.

SPEED ROUND

The Daesh affiliate in Libya has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of 21 Egyptian Christians, according to Site Intelligence Group as reported by The Guardian.

The loud boom heard in Maadi on Monday at c. 1:30am turned out to be the controlled detonation of an explosive device found near a petrol station, according to Al Ahram. Al Watan and Al Masry Al Youm had carried official denials there had been a device the news prior to Al Ahram’s subsequent confirmation.

Rumors of a USD 20 bn fund created to finance investment opportunities presented at the investment summit were denied by the Minister of Investment. (Read in Arabic)

A delegation of 150 business leaders from Italy will visit Egypt in February to explore investment opportunities, according to a senior official at the Bank of Alexandria. (Read in Arabic)

The VAT drumbeat continues in Al-Mal editor Hazem Sherif’s sit-down with Finance Minister Hany Demian. The minister offers no new details in the story, which focuses almost exclusively on taxation, but serves as a reminder that the VAT regulations should be released soon for the promised public consultations. (Read)

When in doubt: It’s always the media’s fault. A sharp rise in newspaper and magazine prices was a critical factor in the surge in headline inflation last month, Al-Mal reports

The CBE sold USD 971.3 mn in one-year treasury bills yesterday at an average interest rate of 2.125% after the government approved the borrowing of USD 1.5 bn last week. (Read in Arabic)

Squash champ Ramy Ashour is front-page on the web edition of the Wall Street Journal this morning with a Life & Style section profile headlined “Lessons From a Squash Player: Travel Light“. Best part of the piece: “He doesn’t have a clothing sponsor, so he modifies his off-the-rack shirts by covering the logos with the Egyptian flag and adding logos for Inspire, his squash training academy in Cairo, and the children’s cancer hospital charity he supports.”

Erdogan and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas are photographed here in what could only be a precursor to a day at a renaissance fair where people dress up and act like they’re in medieval times, which for Erdogan, is just a regular day. Readers have probably already seen these images but we’d be remiss not to mention them in case someone hasn’t seen them yet. (The Guardian’s take had the most images)

Dubai World extends terms of USD 14.6 bn debt: Dubai World reached an agreement with its creditors to amend and extend the terms of its USD 14.6 bn debt. The new agreement entails the early repayment of USD 2.92 bn due this year and extending debt owed in 2018 and 2022 with a pledge of additional collateral. In statement obtained by Bloomberg, Dubai World said the agreement “represents a ‘‘win-win’’ for the company and lenders, providing an improvement on the existing credit agreements for both sides.” (Read)

Charlie Hebdo will run the Prophet Muhammad on its next cover, the WSJ reports. The cover, which is included as the graphic for the article, will feature the Prophet holding a sign saying “Je suis Charlie” and noting “All is forgiven.” Tomorrow’s print run will allegedly be 3 mn copies, 50x its normal run. (Read)

The Kuwaiti authorities have released former opposition MP Saleh Al Mulla on bail “after detaining him for six days on accusations of insulting HH the Amir and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi. Mulla was questioned for posting a number of tweets deemed offensive to the Amir and Sisi during the Egyptian president’s visit to Kuwait last week. The court however set Feb 15 as the start of the trial,” according to the Kuwait Times. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch released a statement early this morning calling for the Kuwaiti government to drop all charges against Al-Mulla.

The WSJ beats the competition to the punch with a piece this morning that claims an upcoming U.S. report from an independent monitor supervising HSBC’s USD 1.9 bn, five-year deferred-prosecution bid will findHSBC needs to do more to clamp down on money laundering. The report is part of a settlement that came after the bank “failed to catch at least USD 881 mn in drug-trafficking proceeds laundered through its U.S. bank and that its staff stripped data from transactions with Iran, Libya and Sudan to evade U.S. sanctions” The independent monitor’s report is due to the U.S. Justice Department later this month. (Read)

Oil prices continue to plunge amid signs GCC producers are resisting pushes from Venezuela and Iran to cut output — and compounded by a Goldman downgraded and a series of incidents at US refineries that will see crude stocks accumulate in the US this week, Reuters reports.

Hey, startup types and VCs reading this: Who’s the Egyptian version of Instacart? Who’s winning on Souq vs. Dubizzle — or is it even fair to say they’re in competition? We’re looking for story tips and people interested in being interviewed for or contributing to a series on Egyptian and regional startups we’re looking at putting together later this winter. Email patrick@enterprise.press (or go read the WSJ’s piece on Instacart this morning — Rebuilding History’s Biggest Dot-Com Bust)

DIPLOMACY

Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry gifts medical equipment to Kenyatta Hospital: During his current visit to Nairobi, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry made a stop at Kenyatta National Hospital where he was received by Kenya’s minister of health and the manager of the hospital, according to a press release out of MOFA. On behalf of the Egyptian Agency for Partnership for Development, Shoukry presided over the delivery of four hemodialysis units and a liver scope unit. After thanks from the Kenyan minister of health, Shoukry noted that that the Egyptian children’s cancer hospital will provide training to 50 Kenyan specialists and will offer free treatment in Egypt to 10 Kenyan pediatric cancer victims.

Egypt has objected to the storage capacity of Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam, which it fears will negatively affect its Nile water share, according to the spokesperson for the Nahda Dam file at the Egyptian Irrigation Ministry on Sunday, who called for Ethiopia to decrease the dam’s capacity. (Read)

The Qatari Foreign Minister denied Khaled Meshaal has left Qatar in a press release issued early this morning by the Qatari foreign ministry. Qatari FM Khalid bin Mohamed Al Attiyah denied that Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal had left Doha “in response to a relevant question during a joint press conference he held with his Venezuelan counterpart Delcy Rodriguez on the occasion of the visit of Venezuelan president to Qatar.” The minister said that “Mashaal is a guest of Qatar or rather in his country,” adding that “neither the Qatari authorities nor the brothers in Turkey have such a position. Khalid Meshaal is living in his country and among his relatives.”

Qatari FM on Egypt: “There is no rift between the State of Qatar and Egypt,” adding that “there are some differences in viewpoints on certain issues.” The statement praised Saudi Arabia’s role in “achieving rapprochement between the two parties and the management of dialogue in order to bring viewpoints closer … we are with the Egyptian people and we harbour all respect and appreciation to them,” Al Attiyah said, adding that “the wellbeing of Egypt is part of the wellbeing of the rest of the Arab world. This is a firm position for the State of Qatar.” (Read)

Assistant U.S. Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation Thomas M. Countryman will travel to Egypt, Jordan, Israel, and the U.A.E. 12-20 January for consultations on nonproliferation in the Middle East. (Read)

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Coverage of Egypt in the global English-language press centers today squarely on what CBS called a “‘shock’ ruling“ in the bathhouse trial and the “disturbing medical exam“ that led to it. All 26 men were acquitted. Read more in the WSJ, a very brief note in the NY Times or the BBC. Or just Google it. It’s all over the place today.

A Reuters profile of a disaffected 25 January 2011 activist who has since dropped out of politics and won’t be running for parliament is being picked up far and wide, including in the New York Times. “‘The street no longer believes in the youth and the revolution. They fear change,’ he told Reuters.”

The final transfer of BiscoMisr shares should be complete on Sunday, Kellogg believes, per a Wall Street Journal report.

Patrick Kingsley, among others, writes on the various obstacles and perils of those involved comedy in the region, including Bassem Youssef.

WORTH WATCHING EMOTIONAL ROLLER COASTER

The Shut Up Your Mouse Obama woman, Mona al-Beheiri, was harmless when her first video came out because many, including this particular writer, assumed we all had had a laugh and now she would kindly vanish back into the ether from whence she came. But that’s not what’s happened at all. It just seemed logical that it wasn’t a good idea to send this woman abroad as a sort of goodwill ambassador. That would just be wrong. But no: She’s been on Arabs Got Talent over the weekend, in an appearance which via any description would be a poor substitute for the visceral experience. (Watch)

Some may have found it funny, but if your reaction was similar to ours, you spent the last two and a half minutes not breathing, clutching at your chest in a pure, white-hot rage. There is never a good time to have this loose cannon rampaging around the region like a blue-green Godzilla. But now is especially not a good time for this kind of thing. Can private citizens take this up with Interpol — a citizen’s arrest warrant of some sort? At the very least, it would bring peace of mind to have her out of sight for the next few months with no contact with the outside world. Is that unreasonable?

Go ahead now and listen to her Shut Up Your Mouse Obama remix to calm down and remember the good old days when she was an outlet to relieve stress instead of inducing it. (Listen)

And if that hasn’t helped enough, then here’s something completely different to cleanse the palate: Adriana Lima and Alessandra Ambrosio announcing on YouTube that Victoria’s Secret will be opening two stores in Cairo this Saturday: one in City Stars and one in Cairo Festival City. (Watch)

ENERGY, RENEWABLE ENERGY & SUBSIDY REFORM

USD 2.7 bn needed to complete Egyptian Refining Company: Commercial Director
Al Borsa, Daily News Egypt | 12 Jan 2015
USD 2.7 bn will be utilized throughout 2015 and 2016 to complete the implementation of the Egyptian Refining Company’s (ERC) project in Mostorod, according to Wael Al-Orabi, the company’s Commercial Director in an interview with Al Borsa. USD 1bn has been invested in the project by ERC, a subsidiary of Qalaa Holdings, with total investments estimated at USD 3.7 bn. Al-Orabi told Al Borsa that ERC signed a deal with EGPC to receive fuel oil, which will then be converted into diesel at the Mostorod refinery and then resold to EGPC at international prices for 25 years. ERC will provide 50%-60% of domestic diesel needs, saving an estimated USD 300 mn annually from the state budget. (Read in Arabic in Al Borsa and in Daily News Egypt)

GE CEO Immelt to attend Sharm summit, company looking at new energy opportunities in Egypt
Al Mal | 12 Jan 2015
GE will attend the Egypt Economic Development Conference in March and CEO Jeff Immelt is scheduled to speak at the mid-March gathering, GE’s VP told Prime Minister Ibrahim Mehleb during a meeting between the two. GE has also expressed a willingness to engage in projects to build power plants and also conduct feasibility studies for energy projects as well as sharing its expertise in healthcare and financial services. (Read in Arabic)

OIL & GAS

Drop in energy prices are making Cypriot gas sales to Egypt doubtful — Cypriot media
In Cyprus | 12 Jan 2015
The current fall in international energy prices are putting the sale of Cypriot natural gas to Egypt in doubt, according to The Cyprus Weekly. The former chairman of the Cyprus National Hydrocarbons Company, Charles Ellinas, expects end-user prices for the gas to reach USD 12-13 per mmbtu after adding the costs of liquefaction, transport, regasification, and allowing for profit – far above the Henry Hub’s USD 3.14. The concerns are exacerbated with the news that the Onasagoras well drilled by Eni-Kogas turned out dry. (Read)

AUTOMOTIVE

GB Auto seeks regulatory approval for EGP 960 mn capital increase
Company Statement | 12 Jan 2015
GB Auto’s board of director voted on Sunday to seek regulatory approval for an EGP 960 mn rights issue that would see the company’s paid-in and issued capital rise to EGP 1.095 bn. The tradable rights issue would be carried out at per (EGP 1.00 per share), and subscribers may participate in cash or through the capitalization of loans to the company. “Proceeds from the capital raising would be used to fuel the company’s drive to capture what management believes are outstanding opportunities in its home market of Egypt. GB Auto also remains watchful for compelling opportunities on a regional basis,” the statement said. Further details will follow after approval of documentation by the EGX’s listing and delisting committee. (Read the announcement in pdf)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

El-Sisi meets political party leaders
Ahram | 13 Jan 2015
For six hours yesterday, the President and political party leaders discussed their goals for the as-yet unelected parliament this year and their idea of what its agenda should be. Ittihadiyya spokesman Alaa Youssef said El-Sisi stressed that he will be very supportive of parliament so long as party leaders put the people above their own needs. Youssef added that the president reiterated that all party leaders are part of this country; everyone will play a vital role in rebuilding it. The statement notes the president explicitly called for fair, transparent elections. (Read in Arabic)

Trading on ETFs to begin on 15 January – Head of the EGX
Al Shorouk | 12 Jan 2015
ETFs will begin trading on the EGX on 15 January, stock exchange chairman Mohamed Omran. The ETFs will be subject to normal market regulations with the exception of not having trading on them halted unless the whole market is put on hold, with dividend distribution possible on a semi-annual basis. Beltone Financial was granted Egypt’s first license to issue ETFs in April 2014. (Read in Arabic)

Investment authority employees will be subject to the government’s salary cap
Al Mal | 12 Jan 2015
The Ministry of Investment denied that employees of the investment authority and the investment promotion committee will be exempt for the government’s salary cap. This comes as a clarification after articles of the proposed unified investment law implied that an exemption was possible. (Read in Arabic)

Investment Minister announces four-year economic and development plan
Al Masry Al Youm, Al Borsa | 11 Jan 2015
Speaking at CI Capital’s investor conference on Sunday, Investment Minister Ashraf Salman announced that the government has devised a four-year plan to revive foreign and domestic investments in Egypt. The minister noted signs of economic improvement including easing inflation and falling unemployment. Salman believes that the government will be able to attract EGP 1.1 tn over the coming four years, as the investment climate continues to improve. GDP growth approaching 7%, the minister said, should help bring the budget deficit down to about 8% and decrease national debt. (Read summarized version in Arabic on AMAY, read detailed version on Al Borsa)

ON YOUR WAY OUT

“16,000” street children in Egypt: AMAY reports that the Ministry of Social Solidarity conducted a census to evaluate the number of street children in Egypt and found them to be just over 16,000. 83% of homeless children are male, with Cairo holding the largest concentration of street children despite the majority being in rural areas. (Read in Arabic)

The Ministry’s definition of street children, however, needs to be specified —  it has been argued in the past that there “are various explanations for the lack of consent on the number of street children … The most fundamental reason, however … is the lack of a definition for street child.” (Read)

Non-oil exports increased to EGP 156 bn in 2014 from EGP 151.7 bn a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Trade. (Read in Arabic)

Divorce is final when announced on Facebook, according to a top imam from the Ministry of Awqaf. (Watch in Arabic on AMAY)

BY THE NUMBERS

USD (CBE auction): 7.1401 (unchanged)
USD (parallel market): 7.75 (down 20 pts)

EGX30 (Monday): 9,109.23 (+2.24%)
Turnover: EGP 612.1 mn (10% below the 90-day average)

WTI: USD 45.43 (-1.39%)
Brent: USD 46.71 (-1.52%)

TASI: 8,436.7 (-0.1%)
ADX: 4,449.4 (-0.7%)
DFM: 3,749.4 (+2.7%)
KSE: 442 (+0.7%)
QE: 11,911.7 (-0.9%)
MSM: 6,438.9 (+0.6%)