House passes string of key legislation

It’s the accidental legislation issue again here, as the House of Representatives passed a series of key laws yesterday — some important, others controversial. They gave their approval on a law setting up Egypt’s first sovereign wealth fund and the Press and Media Acts. Expect future legislation issues this week as the House rushes to complete the laws on its plate in the current legislative term, which could be extended to August. The laws have guided the conversation on Egypt, both in the local and foreign press yesterday. We have more on those laws in the Speed Round below.

The House of Representatives has delayed discussions on the Madbouly Cabinet’s policy program till next week, Rep. Mahmoud Sherif, who chairs the committee tasked with reviewing the program, told Ahram Gate. Deliberations on the program were due to begin today. The committee has concluded its report, which gave a resounding approval for the program, and is recommending that a vote of confidence be given to the Madbouly Cabinet.

Long-term bond yields start dropping along with the short-term treasuries: Egypt’s long-term bond yields have begun to decline from their peak last week, following the drop witnessed in short-term bond yields this week. Yields on the 10-year bonds fell to 17.748% after peaking at 17.859% last week. Five-year yields were flat, rising marginally to 17.759% from 17.756% at the last sale, also on July 2, central bank data showed, according to Reuters. Analysts figure that last week’s record high yields indicated that carry traders and portfolio investors have lost interest in Egypt’s debt, in large part as a result of the wider emerging market sell-offs.

EM zombie apocalypse not as bad as widely thought? The rising USD is not really impacting emerging economies’ growth potential, Union Bancaire Privée’s Mathieu Nègre writes for Forbes Middle East. EM are still “benefiting from synchronised growth in the global economy, he argues, noting that the MSCI EM Index is down only 5% y-t-d, while World Index is up 3.5%. “That momentum provides a good opportunity to move back into this asset class,” he argues.

Oh, great. Another doom and gloom piece on the global economy from the FT: The potential for a revolution in Iran against the Islamic regime means the international oil market could be in for “a bumpy ride,” Nick Butler writes for the Financial Times. While it seems unlikely that recent protests will snowball into a full-fledged revolution that would undo the Islamic Revolution, Butler points out that most thought it was unlikely that the Islamic Revolution would succeed for decades ago. But if regime change does happen, Iranian oil production would drop, creating a supply gap that other oil producing countries — including Saudi Arabia — would scramble to fill. “The prospect of instability in Iran is probably discounted in the current oil price. If the situation does deteriorate, no doubt speculation will drive the price higher, but investors should take a longer view as well … As ever volatility and speculation do not move in one direction for long.”

It’s (legislative) Groundhog Day: Legislation was once again the talk of the town on last night’s talk shows after the House of Representatives passed several bills yesterday (all of which we look into in detail in Speed Round), including a few that had stirred controversy the previous day. The only notable exception was Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk’s sit-down with Hona Al Asema’s Reham Ibrahim to explain the economic reform program and its benefits.

An uptick in investment helped GDP growth rise to 5.4% in FY2017-18, which Kouchouk noted is a huge leap from the 2% GDP growth rate Egypt was averaging between 2011 and 2014. Kouchouk also pointed to other indicators such as the reduction of unemployment to 10.6% as of March 2018. He also dispelled rumors that the government is planning to raise subsidized bread prices, particularly since it would affect around 75 mn citizens.

Energy subsidy cuts were an absolute must, without which state coffers would have had to dole out another EGP 215 bn, Kouchouk said. He reminded viewers that these expenditures are being redirected towards creating new jobs and shoring up the social safety net, including expanding the Takaful and Karama programs to benefit 2.5 mn people (watch, runtime: 12:59).

Kouchouk’s main talking point throughout the interview was that the government is not leaving people high and dry with its reforms, and is committed to introducing measures that will help increase citizens’ ability to cope with the repercussions of reform. Chief among these measures is the government’s move to increase wages for some 5.5 mn civil servants and raise the minimum threshold for income tax breaks, which he said should benefit more than 20 mn citizens (watch, runtime: 24:40).

Rep. Medhat Al Sherif discussed the Sovereign Wealth Fund Act with Hona Al Asema’s Reham Ibrahim. Al Sherif explained the purpose of the EGP 200 bn fund, whose capital he said is expected to exceed EGP 1 tn once it brings all of Egypt’s underutilized assets under its umbrella. A committee mandated with compiling a database of these untapped assets has thus far listed around 4,130 assets, Al Sherif said, without disclosing further details (watch, runtime: 6:09). The fund’s success hinges on it being managed efficiently, Al Sherif said, adding that the fund must also be subject to strict auditing and regulation (watch, runtime: 6:16).

The establishment of the fund is part of the government’s administrative reform drive, investment export Osama Mourad said. The fund would allow for a “regulated” type of privatization that does not necessarily entail the sale of state assets and would instead rely on involving the private sector in managing these assets, Mourad noted (watch, runtime: 6:15).

Rep. Osama Heikal was also back on the airwaves to defend the Press and Media Act, including articles that have repeatedly come under fire for undermining freedom of expression. Heikal told Yahduth fi Masr’s Sherif Amer that social media users naturally have the right to express their opinions through their personal accounts, but quickly rolled back on the idea by saying that social media must be subject to stringent regulation to avoid the dissemination of “false news” and rumors. Social media accounts would only be blocked if they are seen as posing a threat to national security, he said. Heikal also explained to Amer that, once President Abdel Fattah El Sisi ratifies the law, the current boards and heads of the three media regulatory bodies — the National Media Authority, the National Press Authority, and the Supreme Media Council — will see a shakeup (watch, runtime: 3:00 and runtime: 3:03).

House reps. also blanketed the airwaves to defend the bill granting Egyptian citizenship to residents in exchange for EGP 7 mn. Parliament spokesman Salah Hassaballah said the legislation is mostly geared towards investors and businessmen (watch, runtime: 7:07) while Rep. Shoukry Al Gendy reiterated that citizenship will only be granted to those who pass a thorough security screening and meet other requirements (watch, runtime: 4:56).

National security concerns with the law: The only detractor of the law was the Wafd Party’s assistant head, Yasser Koura, who suggested that opening the floor for people from any country to obtain the Egyptian citizenship might be an issue for national security. Koura also said the bill should have required that the payment be made in foreign currency (watch, runtime: 4:05).

LEGISLATION WATCH- House signs off on several laws, including Sovereign Wealth Fund Act and the Press and Media Act: The House of Representatives’ general assembly signed off yesterday on the law establishing Egypt’s EGP 200 bn sovereign wealth fund, Al Mal reports. The law gives the fund complete financial independence and relieves it from paying taxes on transactions with subsidiary funds and affiliates, in addition to clarifying what the state would consider an under-utilized asset. The executive regulations for the law should be issued within 60 days of it being published in the Official Gazette.

The general assembly also approved the three laws that make up the second part of the Press and Media Act, according to Al Shorouk. Representatives had approved the bills on Sunday but postponed their vote due to lack of quorum. Their vote came after the draft laws, which were rejected by the Press Syndicate, were amended to reflect comments by the Council of State (Maglis Al Dawla), which suggested that several of their articles were unconstitutional and infringed on press freedom.

A law that shields senior military officials from prosecution without permission from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces also received a nod from the House today. The law “could make senior military officers immune from future prosecution tied to violence which followed the 2013 ouster of Islamist president Mohammed Morsi,” Reuters says.

The House general assembly approved the final draft of the Public Contracts Act (previously known as the Tenders and Auctions Act), Ahram Gate reports. Parliamentary Speaker Ali Abdel Aal decided to refer the legislation to the Council of State (Maglis El Dawla) for a second review after the House Budget Committee had amended the bill to reflect the name change. The legislation aims to decentralize and streamline tender procedures.

Want to become an Egyptian quick? Got EGP 7 mn? Also approved a yesterday was a law that would grant foreign residents Egyptian citizenship in exchange for an EGP 7 mn deposit (or its foreign currency equivalent of c. USD 391,000) which is meant to help spur foreign investment. Bloomberg is noting criticisms of the law that it panders to business.

The general assembly also approved amendments to the income tax code that would set a 2.5% tax on on real estate sales.

Parliament also gave its final approval to the Foreign Campuses Act, which sets the rules for foreign universities opening campuses in Egypt, according to Ahram Gate.

Other items on the House agenda include:

• House reps. have drafted legislation on connecting homes to the national natural gas grid, Al Shorouk reports. If approved, the bill would see the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) add the cost of gas utility installation to the price of any piece of land being sold.
• The House is likely to defer to the next legislative term discussions over Egypt’s version of the Freedom of Information Act, and another that would amend the guidelines for electing the board of the Federation of Industries.

Egypt has the capacity to drum up enough interest to sell stakes from four major public companies on the EGX this year, but time is running short, Renaissance Capital MENA CEO Ahmed Badr tells Bloomberg in an interview (watch, runtime: 5:16). “I’m a bit skeptical on the public side whether they’re actually going to have enough time to do it now or not.” Finance Minister Mohamed Maait had told us earlier this week that the first wave of the government’s privatization program will include stake sales by five companies and that a detailed timeline would be published this week or the next.

Liquidity is “quite low” in the Egyptian equities market, according to Badr, who said that the solution is for new players to enter the playing field “because you need more depth. Egypt is still lacking a bit of depth and that’s why you still reflect in liquidity.” He noted that Egypt has been attracting EM investors, as well as frontier and Africa investors, but not global EM investors.

As for Renaissance Capital, the firm is currently working on “one of the largest infrastructure and construction plays in Egypt,” which Badr expects to see resolution towards the end of the year.

IMF warns of global economic instability in its World Economic Outlook Update: “Amid rising tensions over international trade, the broad global expansion that began roughly two years ago has plateaued and become less balanced,” The IMF said in its July update of the World Economic Outlook. While the IMF continues to maintain that global GDP growth will come in at 3.9% in 2018, and 2019, the global lender sees that the “risk of worse outcomes has increased, even for the near term.” The IMF notes that while growth remains strong in advanced economies, it has slowed in many of them, in the Eurozone, Japan, and the UK. Even US growth is projected to decelerate over the next few years. “The risk that current trade tensions escalate further—with adverse effects on confidence, asset prices, and investment—is the greatest near-term threat to global growth,” according to the report.

Fed policy is also a leading contributors to constrained global growth: The US Federal Reserve looks to be on track to raising over the next two years, given strong US employment and firming inflation figures, the report said. “The USD has already appreciated broadly since April, and financial conditions facing emerging and frontier economies have become somewhat more restrictive.” In other words, emerging markets can look forward to a continued rough time ahead.

For emerging markets, the IMF is still projecting GDP growth rates of 4.9% for 2018 and 5.1% for 2019, despite changing economic headwinds in oil prices, US interest rates and USD appreciation, and a sell-off. The report that its broader assessment of EMs belie specific conditions in a number of individual countries, particularly those EMs that are hardest hit by the EM zombie apocalypse. “Central banks in key emerging market economies —including Argentina, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey—have raised policy rates, responding to inflation and exchange rate pressures (coupled with capital flow reversals in some cases). Long-term yields have also increased in recent months, and spreads have generally widened. Most emerging market equity indices have declined modestly, reflecting, in some cases, concerns about imbalances (e.g., Argentina and Turkey), and, more generally, rising downside risks to the outlook.”

You can catch the press release for the report, the landing page or the full report (pdf) here.

Carbon Holdings expects to reach financial close on its USD 10.9 bn Tahrir Petrochemicals Complex (TPC) by the end of the year, Managing Director for Environment and Sustainability, Mohamed Hassan, tells Bloomberg in an interview. The project is being financed by a USD 5.4 bn debt package through institutions such as UK Export Finance, Germany’s Euler Hermes, and the US Overseas Private Investment Corporation, but Carbon Holdings is currently in “serious talks with other equity investors,” according to Hassan, who refused to name names, but said that a few other export credit agencies showed “interest in supporting the project and this might be considered.” Officials had said earlier this month that a group of Chinese lenders had made as much as USD 3.1 bn available as backup funding for the project, adding that the group should reach financial close in 3Q2018.

INVESTMENT WATCH- France’s Voltalia plans to invest as much as USD 800 mn in Egypt’s renewable energy sector over the next five years, Regional Director Emad Ghaly said yesterday. The company plans to build around 500 MW-worth of wind farms and 300 MW-worth of solar power plants, he said, adding that “Voltalia agreed with a number of French banks to finance the projects planned, and seeks to expand the implementation of solar and wind stations in West Nile and Gulf of Suez.” Voltalia is already building a 25 MW solar plant in the Benban solar power complex in Aswan, according to Ghaly.

INVESTMENT WATCH- EFG Hermes arranges USD 18 mn-worth of loans for Marakez to finance new residential project in New Cairo: EFG Hermes has reportedly arranged USD 18 mn-worth of loans for Al Hokair Group’s Marakez for Real Estate Investment, sources with knowledge of the matter tell Al Mal. The amount was secured through a number of international banks, whose names the sources refused to reveal, and will be used to finance Marakez’s new residential development in New Cairo. Saudi’s Alhokair Group had previously said it was planning to invest around EGP 15 bn in Egypt over the next three years to expand its Mall of Arabia brand with new commercial projects in Tanta, New Cairo, and the new administrative capital, in addition to completing the second phase of Mall of Arabia in Six October City, which includes a residential development that was the subject of a dispute with the New and Urban Communities Authority. Marakez recently signed an MoU with Al Futtaim Misr for Retail to open an IKEA store at Mall of Arabia by 2020.

Orascom Construction (OC) has completed and delivered its renovation of the Al Alamein Hotel to Emaar Hospitality Group after eight months of work, OC announced yesterday in an emailed statement (pdf). The company “implemented an intensive schedule to refurbish, upgrade, and convert” the famous North Coast hotel to a luxury, state-of-the-art establishment. OC was the general contractor for the project. “We are pleased to work with a big player and repeat client like Emaar and are proud to deliver this high quality project in record timing. Such projects are expected to boost Egypt’s tourism and our ability to consistently execute projects on a fast-track basis will be of great resource to other developments,” OC CEO Osama Bishai said.

EXCLUSIVE- Egypt’s banks and Finance Ministry closing in on agreement to settle stamp tax disputes: The Finance Ministry and the Federation of Egyptian Banks (FEB) have agreed to settle outstanding issues concerning the stamp tax, Assistant to the Finance Minister Fathy Shaaban told Enterprise. A new agreement to set the new compromise framework will be signed on Thursday, which will serve as the basis to settle stamp tax disputes with banks on a case by case basis, he added. He noted that the ministry is engaged with around 1,000 tax disputes with various banks over multiple taxation issues. While he did not dive into the specifics of the disputes, previous reports dating back to 2015 had noted that banks are not happy with forced to pay the stamp tax on assets seized from defaulters.

Another EEDC zombie project sees the light of day? The Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC) will reportedly sign contracts next month with China’s Sinohydro for the development of a USD 2.6 bn 2.4 GW pumped-storage hydroelectricity power station in Ataqa, Hydro Power Plants Executive Authority boss Mohamed Osama said. The government had signed an MoU with Sinohydro for the project at the Egypt Economic Development Conference (EEDC) in 2015. The EEHC is also studying the establishment of two pumped-storage hydroelectricity power plants in Luxor worth a combined USD 5 bn, sources said yesterday. The EEHC is reviewing offers from international consultants including Artelia Group, Black and Veatch, and Fichtner.

MOVES- Tarek Aboul Atta was appointed as the deputy head of the Supreme Constitutional Court by a presidential decree issued yesterday, Al Masry Al Youm reports.

MOVES- Essam El Saghir is staying on as Egypt Post head for an additional year after his three-year term ended in May, Al Mal reports. El Saghir has held the position since May 2015.

Former Armed Forces chief of staff Sami Anan is in critical condition and is on life support at a military hospital, two sources tell Reuters. 70-year-old Anan was reportedly admitted to the hospital’s intensive care unit on Saturday due to a “chest infection and back problems that have impaired his ability to move,” according to the sources. He reportedly also suffered a stroke two months ago. Anan has been held in military detention since January after the army arrested and summoned him for questioning over his short-lived plans to run in the presidential elections that took place in March, which the Armed Forces sees as a serious breach of the laws of military service.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will reportedly be visiting Sudan on Thursday to meet with Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir, according to reports in the Sudanese press picked up by Youm7. The two-day long meetings between the presidents will encompass primarily the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the South Sudan peace process, according to the newspaper.

El Sisi is expected to also attend the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing this September, China’s acting ambassador to Egypt Liu Yongfeng told reporters yesterday. El Sisi will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the forum to discuss Cairo and Beijing’s plans for cooperation during the upcoming few years.

We’re still waiting on news around the new education program President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is reportedly set to unveil this month. It is unclear whether the program is K-12 or post-secondary.

GEM bidding deadline extended: Investors have until 21 August to bid to open stores at the Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) after the deadline has been extended, according to GEM supervisor Tarek Tawfik.

Plan your long weekend and bridge: The CBE officially announced banks and the EGX will be off on Monday, 23 July in observance of Revolution Day, according to Al Shorouk. Expect half the nation’s workforce to try to cadge a four-day weekend. We’ll be back in your inboxes Tuesday morning.

Topping coverage of Egypt in the foreign press this morning was the series of laws passed by the House of Representatives yesterday, with particular attention being given to politically sensitive laws. The most talked about and the most controversial is a law that shields senior military officials from prosecution without permission from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. All foreign coverage on the law has reached the same conclusion: That the law was designed to shield them from prosecution for violence during the ousting of Ikhwani president Mohamed Morsi, with many, including from the BBC, running their own counts of those dead and arrested during the period.

The foreign press was also critical of the passing of the Press and Media Act, with outlets calling the law, legalized censorship. The Wall Street Journal says the move is another attempt by the El Sisi administration to consolidate power.

Other headlines worth noting in brief:

• Abu Dhabi’s Enviromena Power Systems is working on solar power projects in Egypt with up to 256 MW generation capacity, which will come online in 2019, according to ME Construction News.
• Egypt has managed to broker another “fragile” truce between Israel and Palestinian factions Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Al Bawaba says.
• National Geographic’s latest show traces archaeologist Matt Adams’ 30 years of digging in Ancient Abydos, according to News and Sentinel.

Opinion writers not happy with gov’t decision making process: Government decisions geared to resolve specific problems end up creating a host of other issues because the decisions are not thoroughly thought out to begin with, Safwat Kabel writes for Al Shorouk. Kabel takes issue with the recently implemented rice policy that saw the government reducing the country’s rice cultivation and President Abdel Fattah El Sisi approving the import of rice as a way to reduce retail prices. While these policies are understandable when looking through the water conservation lens, Kabel argues that the government did not assess the situation holistically and failed to anticipate the decisions’ side effects — or, at the very least, communicate how it plans to address these side effects. Among the issues he points to are the fact that farmers were not given guidelines on which crops to cultivate instead of rice, that reducing rice cultivation will reduce the fertility of the soil, and that relying on imported rice means that the retail price will likely increase for domestic consumers.

The gains traditionally resulting from innovation are not diffusing through companies and industries as they once did, leading to a long-term slowdown in productivity, Jason Douglas, Jon Sindreu and Georgi Kantchev write for the Wall Street Journal. Economists have found that the biggest companies, fueled by technology and innovative production methods, are growing at a much higher clip than their smaller counterparts. The discrepancy in productivity rates between large and small companies is also growing, meaning small companies are increasingly lagging behind.

So why isn’t productivity increasing at all companies, big or small? Part of the issue could be that bigger firms have more resources to invest in new technologies and other measures to increase productivity, whereas the smaller players struggle to scrape together the necessary costs and may also be dissuaded from taking risky decisions that could end in disaster. But AI is not solely responsible for the productivity gap. “Some economists say it could be that good managers have flocked to top firms — enticed by the larger pay offered by multinationals — and the laggards need to catch up. According to the World Management Survey, smaller firms are consistently worse run and are responsible for most differences in management across countries.”

The Small and Medium Enterprise Authority is in talks with the World Bank for a USD 300 mn loan to finance new projects, boss Nevine Gamea said yesterday, Youm7 reports. The authority is looking to expand its funding of ventures such as financial leasing companies, according to Gamea, who did not provide any details on the timeline for the loan.

The National Bank of Egypt (NBE) has signed on to join a China-Arab states bank initiative announced by Chinese Xi Jinping earlier this month, NBE Vice Chairman Yahia Aboul Fotouh tells Ahram Gate. The initiative is part of the wider Chinese One Belt One Road global trade program, said Aboul Fotouh. Xi Jinping had pledged USD 20 bn in regional aid to Arab States at the China-Arab Cooperation Forum. Egypt’s share from the funding will be USD 1.2 bn, a senior government source told us earlier this week.

The Military Production Ministry will begin reviewing offers from local companies looking to work on the Dabaa nuclear power plant in two months’ time, Minister Mohamed El Assar said yesterday. Petrojet, Hassan Allam, Arab Contractors, Elsewedy, ABB Egypt, and Orascom are among the 86 companies that have submitted offers, according to unnamed sources. Russia’s Rosatom will be consulted during the selection process. Sabbour Consulting was reportedly bidding for two design contracts related to work on project earlier this year. Rosatom had invited Egyptian engineering and consulting firms to begin presenting their offers to work last November.

SDX Energy announced yesterday (pdf) concluding a successful production test on the SD-4X appraisal well at its South Disouq concession. “We intend to connect this well to infrastructure located adjacent to our SD1X discovery over the coming months,” CEO Paul Welch said. The company expects to begin production in 4Q2018.

EgyptAir is planning to operate two weekly flights to Hong Kong starting 17 September, company Chairman Ahmed Adel tells Youm7. The new line will operate on Mondays and Fridays with a stopover in Bangkok.

The National Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (NTRA) is currently investigating why the nation’s three private mobile network operators are facing delays in offering fixed line services since they received their operating licenses two years ago, sources close to the matter tell Youm7. Orange Egypt had said in December last year that it would begin offering fixed line services as of 2018. Meanwhile, Prepaid mobile phone scratch card prices will not be raised to reflect the recent hike in fuel costs, an unnamed telecom company source tells Al Mal.

Raya Holding Company is planning to open up a EGP 25 mn data center in Six October City in 3Q2018 as part of its domestic expansion plans, Data Center Operations boss Mohamed Saad tells Amwal Al Ghad.

The UAE’s Ajman Media City Freezone (AMCFZ) signed agreements with Egypt’s Media Public Free Zone and Media Production City, which will see the AMCFZ “identify value propositions, projects and events that can be localised for the UAE market and be brought to Ajman,” according to Arabian Business. The AMCFZ, which is set to become a regional hub for the creative and entertainment industries, also signed agreements with the Times of India and Hindustan Times.