Everything you wanted to know about Madbouly’s policy priorities

It’s all about the new Madbouly government’s policy platform today, ladies and gentlemen.

We have crossed over to the next (and frankly more challenging) stage of the economic reform program: Policy continuity is the order of the day, Madbouly made clear in presenting his program to the House of Representatives yesterday. The PM emphasized that the toughest part of the reform program is now behind us, and in a sense, he’s right: Subsidy reform was (and remains, for the next year or two) politically fraught. But it was a single, big decision: Hard to decide to make, easy to implement once you bite the bullet. Ditto the float of the EGP, the shoring up of the social safety net, the passage of key legislation such as the bankruptcy act. Big stuff, hard to swallow, but easy to do.

We’re now getting down to brass tacks, as our grandma would have said. Can export industries be created by government policy? If so, which industries (if any) are worthy of export subsidies? Do we really want short selling? Should public-sector and private companies be competing? Shouldn’t we have a clear policy that makes land available to manufacturers and other businesses at much, much lower prices? How do we revive the tourism industry? How can businesses be given a seat at the table in reconfiguring a broken education system that leaves us with both systemically high unemployment and untold numbers skilled jobs left unfilled? Et cetera, et cetera, ad nauseum.

The House has formed a committee to study Madbouly’s platform, which we feature in a Spotlight below. The committee is due to report back to parliament in 10 days’ time.

Meanwhile, the House of Representatives’ general assembly is in recess until Sunday 15 July, Youm7 reports. It’s still not clear when legislators will go on summer break before returning for the fall legislative season due to kick off in October.

Did we really receive the USD 2 bn IMF disbursement? Apparently, Egypt already received the fourth USD 2 bn portion of the USD 12 bn IMF Extended Fund Facility, government sources tell AMAY. The transfer arrived last Friday, the day the IMF’s executive board approved the disbursement, the source added. Take reports on timing with a grain of salt.

Warning of the day: There will be 128 mn of us by 2030 on the back of a trend toward earlier marriage and the declining use of contraceptives, Next Big Future says.

Careem is reportedly in early talks to ‘combine’ its business with Uber. Talks between the Dubai-based ride hailing service and the global industry heavyweight come as Uber is “looking to resolve a costly rivalry” in advance of a potential IPO next year, according to Bloomberg. The two sides have discussed a “number of potential [transaction] structures,” but have yet agree whether Careem’s current team would run a merged business or Uber will outright acquire its Mideast rival. In parallel, Careem is said to be “in the process of a new funding round that would bolster its position as Uber’s largest competitor in a fast-growing market,” the Financial Times adds. Side note: Abraaj was an early backer of Careem, having flipped its stake to Alwaleed bin Talal’s Kingdom Holding a little more than a year ago.

Speaking of Abraaj: KPMG is under scrutiny for its role in the still-unfolding Abraaj debacle after KPMG International called in law firm Linklaters to run an independent investigation of KPMG Dubai’s work on the high-profile private equity firm that has foundered amid allegations funds were misused. The Wall Street Journal details close ties between the two firms, including that a KPMG exec twice served as CFO of Abraaj (not terribly unusual in our part of the world, as most of you reading this will know). Look for there to be pressure on KPMG franchises near you to up their game on governance and toughness in audits, ladies and gents.

How China uses financing and political savvy to lock down key pieces of infrastructure: Beijing’s canny read on local politics and alleged willingness to throw around bags of cash (literally and metaphorically) allowed it to secure use of a key port in Sri Lanka, giving it “control of territory just a few hundred miles off the shore of a rival, India, and a strategic foothold along a critical commercial and military waterway.” The New York Times has a deeply reported piece looking at how it all came together, positioning it as a cautionary tale on Beijing’s Road and Belt financing initiative. The piece has proven controversial in Sri Lanka, where MPs have tried to intimidate two Sri Lankan journalists who had worked on it. Former Cairo bureau chief Michael Slackman, now the Times’ foreign editor, issued a press release yesterday rebuking the lawmakers for their attack on the press. Read the exhaustive investigation here or catch Slackman’s press release here on the tweeter.

Stuff you should know heading into the last two business days of the week:

Attention, olds: Your kids are juuling. It’s time you figured out what that means. Juul is a really tiny e-cigarette that’s become popular with the teen set because of its very small size, big nicotine punch, ability to recharge via USB, and cool factor. Juul bills itself on its website as a product to “help satisfy smokers when transitioning from cigarettes,” but it’s become a thing in its own right. It’s ridiculously powerful: One single Juul pod (good for about 200 puffs) has the nicotine equivalent of a full pack of smokes, and they come in flavours including ‘fruit medley’ and ‘creme brulee.’ Its maker, Juul Labs, is a USD 16 bn company that’s basically come out of nowhere, having raised another USD 1.2 bn late last week, Bloomberg reports. The company had a 2017 top line of USD 245 mn and expects to rake in USD 940 mn this year with a 70% gross margin a forecasted EBITDA margin for 2018 of about 27%, according to Axios. Big Tobacco should be worried, Morgan Stanley suggests, saying Juul has driven a “revival in the US e-cig market.” The Verge has a really deep dive.

We’re going out on a limb here and saying this ain’t coming to Egypt anytime soon: Second Cup, the publicly traded Canadian coffee chain that opened earlier this year in Cairo, got a share price bump from its spring announcement that it will convert some of its cafés into cannabis dispensaries — but its shares have been on a wild ride since it. Enter Canada’s Globe & Mail, with a look at Second Cup and the perils of investing in mary jane as the country prepares for the end of prohibition this fall.

Wait, there’s still a World Cup without Egypt? Indeed there is, and England was the last team to have snagged a quarter-final berth after beating Colombia 4-3 in a penalty shootout last night. This weekend will see four quarter-final matches before semi finals on Tuesday and Wednesday. The third-place playoff is slated for a week from Saturday, and the final is on Sunday, 15 July at 5:00pm CLT. This weekend’s fixtures (all times CLT):

• France vs. Uruguay (4pm Friday)
• Brazil vs. Belgium (8pm Friday)
• Sweden vs England (4pm Saturday)
• Croatia vs Russia (8pm Saturday)

We’re still looking for news of a shuffle of the nation’s 27 governors that was expected last week and for news that a visiting World Bank delegation might send signals on the WBG’s interest in chipping in additional financing for rail and river transport.

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly presented his cabinet’s new four-year policy program to the House of Representatives yesterday, according to an official statement. The new cabinet’s agenda will focus on five main areas: Economic development, improving living standards, human development, as well as national security and foreign policy. You can view the full program here, courtesy of Ahram Gate, or read the cabinet’s summary here.

On the economic front, ministers have set targets for FY2021-2022 that include:

• GDP growth rate of 8%, up from 5.4% in FY2017-18;
• Overall budget deficit of 6% of GDP;
• Primary budget surplus of 2% of GDP;
• Sovereign debt level of around 80-85% of GDP;
• Industrial growth rate of 10.7%, up from 6.3% in FY2018-19;
• Unemployment rate of 8%, down from a current 10.6%;
• Increase in overall government earnings to reduce reliance on local and external borrowing;
• Higher tax income as a result of improved collection;
• Securing USD 2 bn in funding from international institutions for infrastructure development;
• Securing EGP 200 bn in funding from regional and international sovereign wealth funds and putting under-utilized states assets to use.

The private sector is key to hitting these targets, according to Madbouly, who said that private businesses in Egypt create some 900k jobs a year on average. That’s why his government will be working to support the private sector — particularly youth-led and small businesses — over the coming four years with initiatives including:

• Establishing 13 industrial complexes across the country;
• Bailing out idle factories;
• Allocating 10% of available land to youth and SMEs;
• Increasing the amount allocated to the central bank’s SME financing initiative;
• Making EGP 10 bn available for banks to give out as loans to SMEs;
• Creating 20k job opportunities at small and micro enterprises through a local development fund for women and youth.
• Allocating EGP 250 mn to a family planning program that seeks to curb population growth, emphasizing that “two is enough.”

Energy policy: Diversification is the name of the game. Priorities here include connecting more households to the national gas grid, focusing on the diversification of energy sources (with a focus on renewables), continuing exploration activities in the Red Sea and East Mediterranean, and capitalizing on surplus production through investments in new petrochemicals and refining projects.

Improved living standards are a focal point of the new policy program. The government will be focusing on closing the “development gap” between governorates, and promises that citizens should begin to feel real lifestyle improvements in the coming months thanks to a combination of past and ongoing reforms, including:

• Pressing ahead with social housing and infrastructure projects, with an emphasis on roads, high-speed trains for cargo and passenger transport, as well as sanitation and water projects;
• Expanding the Takaful and Karama cash-payment welfare programs;
• Create 100k jobs for youth and women in rural areas through programs including expanded support for microfinancing;
• Moving along with projects such as the Sinai and Upper Egypt development plans;
• Expanding the social safety net and consolidating subsidy rolls to ensure that subsidies are not being misallocated;
• Establishing logistics centers nationwide to support the state’s food commodity program.

Health and education are at the heart of the Madbouly Cabinet’s human capital development goals. Priorities here include the launch of the Universal Healthcare Act in Suez Canal cities in the fall and an ambitious education reform program that will not only introduce new K-12 curricula and testing systems, but also see a more concerted effort to improve conditions for teachers. The government will also focus on improving the global ranking of Egyptian universities, largely through collaborations with other international universities, some of which (such as Liverpool University, most recently) have been looking to set up campuses in Egypt.

Egypt will adopt a GCC-style model of water security: The Madbouly Cabinet is planning to plant 1.1 mn feddans somewhere in Africa as part of the food and water security strategy under its national security agenda. Madbouly also framed the move as part of Egypt’s strategy to re-engage with Nile Basin countries.

As with the rest of the local press, the airwaves were chock-full of discussion of the Madbouly Cabinet platform. Unfortunately, the talk was monopolized by members of the House of Representatives, who took the opportunity to praise out of one side of their collective mouth and grandstand out of the other.

MPs really want you to know that the worst of the austerity measures is behind us: The prevailing theme of the night was reassurance that the worst of the economic “sacrifices” of the Egyptian people has passed. In a phone telethon of MPs hosted by Hona Al Asema, Rep. Mohamed Abu Hamed said (in typical dumbed down speak that lacks any actuarial merit) that the government has completed 85% of the reform agenda, with the remaining 15% to be completed in the coming few years. All panelists seemed reassured, however, that the Madbouly plan is a continuation of the reform agenda set out by his predecessor (watch, runtime: 35:00). Rep. Osama Heikal told Al Hayah fi Masr joined the choir, stating that the benefits of the reforms should start trickling down to the masses in the coming few years.

Never miss an opportunity to grandstand: Despite the glowing praise Heikal showered on the plan, Heikal complained that the people were straining under the weight of the reform measures. He said lawmakers were unanimous in the view that the government needs to stop raising prices on certain goods. We won’t bother debating his Bizarro logic (watch, runtime: 6:45).

National Cement Company drama continues: Masaa DMC ran an interview with National Cement Company chairman Mohamed Radwan last Thursday, who accused workers at the plant of being one of the primary reasons why the company is failing (watch, runtime: 9:09). Host Osama Kamal brought the company’s former chairman, Saeed Abdel Moty, among others to discuss the company’s situation (watch, runtime: 8:14).

National Cement’s plight highlights a little aspect of ongoing reform process: Bringing private sector management principles to state companies. The strike became the battleground between the workers (opposed to the restructuring of the failing state company) and the Public Enterprises ministry.

Also last night: Hona Al Asema discussed progress and enrollment in Japanese schools, which kick off this fall, with Education Minister Tarek Shawky (watch, runtime: 8:25). Yahduth Fi Masr’s Sherif Amer was busy interviewing Egyptian athletes did us proud at the Mediterranean games (watch, runtime: 1:17), while Masaa DMC’s Osama Kamal spent the rest of his show interviewing UAE Cabinet Affairs Minister Mohamed Al Gergawi, who praised the state of bilateral ties (watch, runtime: 6:00).

IPO WATCH- Qalaa to list shares of TAQA Arabia and the parent company of ERC before end of 2019 as part of five-year IPO program: Qalaa Holdings is planning to list a number of its subsidiaries on the EGX over the next five years, beginning with the initial public offering of TAQA Arabia in 3Q2019 followed by the offering of around 30% of the Arab Refining Company before the end of the year, Qalaa Chairman Ahmed Heikal told Al Mal in an interview. The Arab Refining Company is the largest shareholder in Qalaa’s nearly USD 4 bn Egyptian Refining Company in Mostorod.

Qalaa plans to list all of its eight existing subsidiaries on the bourse before the end of 2023, including river transport-focused Nile Logistics. Dina Farms and ASCOM are up for listing in 2020, while Tawazon, the National Development and Trading Company, the National Printing Company, and the United Foundries Company will IPO in 2021 and 2022.

Qalaa will retain controlling stakes in all eight companies, according to Heikal, who says the offerings will help raise enough capital for Qalaa to pay off its debts, which currently stand at around USD 270 mn. Heikal also said that Qalaa will not be taking on any more debt over the coming five years, unless it enters into another large-scale project like the Egyptian Refining Company (ERC).

Further divestments in the pipeline: Having sold a number of non-core investments in recent years, Qalaa is now working to sell its stakes in Algerian cement maker Zahana, civil works contractor ESACO, and medical services provider Allmed.

M&A WATCH- Compass completes acquisition of 100% of Qalaa’s Designopolis: Sky Realty Holding Ltd, a subsidiary of Compass Investment, acquired 100% of Qalaa’s Bonyan for Development and Trade, Compass and Qalaa said in a statement issued yesterday (pdf). Bonyan is the owner of the Designopolis mall in Sheikh Zayed. “Proceeds from the transaction will be allocated to deleveraging at the holding and subsidiary levels,” said Qalaa Holdings Managing Director Hisham El Khazindar.

What was the ticket size? Net equity proceeds payable to Qalaa Holdings for the sale were EGP 162 mn, the statement said, but Compass has also settled “bank liabilities and assumed liabilities to third parties amounting to c. EGP 340 million and acquired the principle of the MENA Home Furnishings shareholder loan to Bonyan, amounting to c. EGP 272 million, for an undisclosed amount.”

What’s next for Designopolis? “The asset we are acquiring is an award-winning development offering significant growth and revenue-generating opportunities given its location in the heart of Sheikh Zayed. The city’s increasingly affluent and growing community, coupled with the rising demand for outdoor activities and quality entertainment facilities, make it a unique investment opportunity,” said Compass Investment Chairman Shamel Aboul Fadl.

Advisors: Compass Capital acted as buy-side advisor while TMS Law Firm served as legal counsel for the buyer.

Business conditions in the non-oil private sector appear to have improved only slightly last month, “signalling a deterioration in [its] health,” according to the Emirates NBD PMI reading (pdf) compiled by Markit. The gauge rose slightly 49.4 in June from 49.2 in May, driven by a slight drop in output and exports, as “ both total new orders and export orders decreased to lesser extents than observed in May.” The PMI remains below the 50.0 mark separating contraction from growth.

Still, businesses are confident about growth prospects for what remains of the year. Activity likely declined in June as a result of inflationary pressures and higher costs, which led many firms in the sector to hike prices. Despite that, the “degree of optimism strengthened from May, underpinned by expectations of further investments and new contracts.” Emirates NBD MENA Economist Daniel Richards also said that “external rebalancing and government investment” have now become crucial for growth, as the private sector “continues to lag.” Bloomberg is taking note of the story in light of the IMF’s recommendation that the CBE maintain monetary tightening in its third review.

EXCLUSIVE- State privatization program timeline could roll out before the end of next week: The government committee tasked with oversight of the state privatization program is aiming to announce its detailed timeline as early as this week and no later than next, a source familiar with the program told Enterprise. The announcement, which will be made by Finance Minister Mohamed Maait, who heads the committee, will include: the dates of the share sales, the size of the share sales, and the current stage of readiness of the participating companies. Our expectation is that the announcement will be next week, based Maait having told Al Shorouk that the committee meet next week to sort out the final lineup of companies that will go out in the first wave of the program.

Eastern Tobacco to pilot program before end of September? In line with previous government statements, it now seems almost a certainty that a 4% stake sale by Eastern Tobacco will pilot the program. That’s to take place in the first quarter of the 2018-19 government fiscal year ending in September, the source told us. We still haven’t heard updates on the global tender to select advisers for the transaction, which was supposed to have taken place last month. Last we heard, three investment banks were pitching for the mandate.

This will likely be followed by Enppi in either September or October: The IPO of state energy firm Enppi will most likely follow the Eastern sale, possibly as early as September or October, the source added. Planning Minister Hala El Saeed is sending the same message, saying at a press conference yesterday that “The government will launch the ‘state IPO program’ in 4Q2018,” according to Youm7. El Saeed’s remarks also suggest the government is acknowledging we’re in the summer slow season during which no ECM transactions will go to market.

LEGISLATION WATCH- Planning Ministry has finished drafting legislation to encourage non-cash payments: The Planning Ministry has completed the first draft of a law governing non-cash payments that means to encourage Egypt’s transition to a cashless economy, said Minister Hala El Said. The Planning Ministry consulted the finance and justice ministries on the legislation, before referring it to the CBE for review and sign-off, according to El Said, who did not provide additional details on the contents. It is unclear if the bill is the same or complementary to the one that the Finance Ministry and CBE had been working on earlier this year, which sets limits on the amount of cash that government agencies can receive or pay in a single transaction.

Background: Drafting a law to govern non-cash payments and transactions was one of several resolutions adopted during a National Payments Council meeting last year. The government has been taking steps to gradually decrease the rate of cash transactions as part of the state’s wider financial inclusion strategy. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait had issued a decision last month that would make all transactions between government and private sector worth more than EGP 100k exclusively electronic. All transactions with the government will be electronic as of January 2019, Maait said.

LEGISLATION WATCH- House approves law shielding senior military officials from prosecution: The House of Representatives passed a law that establishes the privileges and benefits of senior military officials, Ahram Gate reports. The law grants senior military generals immunity from prosecution without permission from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Senior generals will also hold the same rank in state as cabinet ministers, the newspaper notes.

Egypt among 10 countries facing a collective USD 1 tn funding gap for infrastructure: Egypt was among 10 African countries facing a collective USD 1 tn shortfall of infrastructure financing required to meet their 2040 development goals, according to a study by the Global Infrastructure Hub (GIH) on the G20 wealthy and developing nations. The 10 countries, which also include Morocco, Ethiopia, Senegal, Tunisia, and Rwanda, will need a total of USD 2.4 tn in investments in water, electricity, roads, railways, airports, seaports, and telecoms to meet the UN’s development goals, the study showed. At their current average investment level of 4.9% of GDP, the countries will have a 42% funding gap of around USD 1 tn to fill.

With great funding gaps come great opportunities: The report sees this shortfall as a major opportunity that only the private sector can tackle. “African nations do not have the resources to ramp up infrastructure spending on their own, even with backing from aid agencies and multilateral donor institutions, and so attracting private sector investment is essential,” GIH Chief Executive Chris Heathcote told Reuters. “There is a wall of money being held by the pension funds. They are looking more and more at emerging market infrastructure,” he said. He noted that a number of international infrastructure development powerhouses, including Bouygues , Bollore, China Railway Construction Corp and General Electric are already active in Africa.

Not much to report today, folks. Enjoy the respite.

Gender differences in the professional landscape could be a result of differences in the power granted to men and women, according to the Columbia Business School of Executive Education. Psychologists conducted a series of studies in which they randomly assigned power conditions to participants of both genders, then tested their ability to negotiate and interpreting others’ emotions. The studies found that those who were assigned higher power conditions were confident and maneuvered more easily in negotiations, but were also less perceptive of their counterparts’ emotions. The researchers suggest that this assignment of power could be one of the reasons why women are held back — they are given less power, which discourages them from speaking up for themselves and negotiating a raise or a promotion, for example. “There are numerous strategies which can help us negotiate power differences, but if we really want to take this seriously, and address long-standing gender disparities then there’s only one solution: We need to give women more power.”

Steel manufacturers are calling for further anti-dumping duties on steel imports. The recent calls come amid fears that the registration of Saudi, Omani and Greek steel exporters with the Export and Import Control Authority, which local manufacturers feel may flood the market, Al Watan reports.

CanWell Educational Consultants is planning to invest EGP 400 mn to complete the second phase of the University of Canada in Egypt in the new administrative capital, Chairman Magdy El Kady tells Al Mal. CanWell expects to invest a total of EGP 2 bn in the university over the course of seven years, according to El Kady. Higher Education Minister Khaled Abdel Ghaffar had inaugurated the first phase of the university on Monday.

The House of Representatives’ general assembly approved yesterday a USD 168 mn loan from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to finance the construction of 45 new Japanese-style schools, Al Shorouk reports. Egypt is chipping in with USD 200 mn for the project.

Speed Medical is planning to invest EGP 25 mn to set up 14 new labs in Canal governorates and Damietta, company Chairman Mahmoud Lasheen said, without clarifying the planned timeline for the investment. The company is focusing on these governorates since the rollout of the Universal Healthcare Act will begin there, Lasheen said. The project is likely part of a wider company plan to invest EGP 67 mn to open 43 new labs by the end of 2Q2019.

Vodafone Egypt’s EGM approved last month paying EGP 1.1 bn in dividends to shareholders, with nearly EGP 500 mn going to state-owned landline monopoly Telecom Egypt, which holds 45% stake in the company, Telecom Paper reports.

Amsterdam-based Veon Holdings made an offer to acquire some of Global Telecom Holding’s (GTH) assets in Pakistan and Bangladesh for USD 2.6 bn, Veon said in a press release on Tuesday. Veon will buy GTH’s Pakistan subsidiary Jazz and its associated operations, in addition to Bangladesh telecom Banglalink. The transaction “is expected to be satisfied in part by Veon discharging and taking on debt, including bonds, of the GTH group in an amount of approximately [USD 1.6 bn],” the firm added. The move will allow Veon, which owns 57.7% of GTH, to consolidate its debts. Veon plans to pay for the acquisition through the proceeds of a 50% stake sale in Wind Tre to CK Hutchison for USD 2.9 bn. The firm had made mandatory offer to purchase the remaining 42.3% of GTH for nearly EGP 15.5 bn back in November, but withdrew the offer in April, causing GTH’s shares to tank.

Al Hokair Group’s Marakez for Real Estate Investment signed an MoU with Al Futtaim Misr for Retail, to open an IKEA store at Mall of Arabia by 2020, according to a company statement (pdf). This will be the Swedish retailer’s second store in Egypt following its Cairo Festival City store.

The Cairo Criminal Court acquitted businessman Ehab Talaat of corruption charges yesterday, Al Shorouk reports. Talaat had been accused of misappropriating EGP 30 mn of public funds that were meant to be directed towards state-owned Al Ahram. The court also unfroze Talaat’s assets and scrubbed his name from the no-fly list.

Global tennis’ anti-corruptions body, the Tennis Integrity Unit (TIU), slapped Egyptian tennis player Karim Hossam with a lifetime ban from the game and a USD 15,000 fine for match-fixing offences, the TIU said in a statement. Hossam was found guilty of sixteen corruption charges in the period between 2013-2017, including match-fixing, betting, providing "inside information" and failing to report bribery solicitations.

Egyptian startups Masry Market, Tripdizer take part in Jack Ma’s eFounders Fellowship: Egyptian entrepreneurs Hany Girgis, founder of online market Masry Market, and Hatem Ayoub, founder of travel market aggregator Tripdizer, were among 27 other African entrepreneurs attending the third eFounders Fellowship cohort at the Alibaba campus in Hangzhou, China. The fellowship is part of a pledge by Alibaba Group’s Executive Chairman, Jack Ma, and UNCTAD to empower 1,000 entrepreneurs from developing countries in five years, according to Venture Burn.