Is Pico on an acquisition spree?
Plus: Egypt buys US wheat for the first time in 4 months.

Prime Minister Sherif Ismail will fly to the UK today to participate in the two-day London Somalia Conference 2017, Ahram Online reports.

The House of Representatives is expected to vote today on the 10% hardship raise forbureaucrats not covered by the Civil Service Act after postponing the vote once again due to lack of quorum. The whole proposal could be taken off the table if the assembly fails to show up for the vote a third time. (More in this morning’s Speed Round, below.)

Coke has a new boss, and he wants his staff to take risks. James Quincey, a Brit no less, is looking to shake things up as he takes over as CEO, telling the Wall Street Journal: “‘I’m not sure fear of failure is entirely wrong, except when it leads to inaction. If you’re trying to do something different on Coke, failure is big and emblematic.’ Mr. Quincey said that because the company for much of its 131-year history has been focused on ‘curating the world’s most valuable brand, a lot of due attention and care was paid to any changes that were made.’ But on smaller, emerging brands, the company needs to be experimenting more, he said. ‘If we’re not making mistakes, we’re not trying hard enough.’”

Running is really, really good for you — even when “controlling for smoking, booze consumption, body mass index” and the over-consumption of sugary drinks such as Coke, it’s better than any other form of exercise at keeping you alive. We’ve said it before, and now GQ is the latest to pick up the research.

We need to all be on our best behaviour for just 48 more hours. The IMF delegation reviewing Egypt’s progress on reforms on which the USD 12 bn bailout package is conditional is in town through tomorrow, from what we understand.

Furniture expo Le Marché is set to begin on Thursday 11 May and run until 14 May.

Is Rambo coming to Egypt? Local website Cairo Gossip quotes an advisor to the Tourism Ministry as saying actor Sylvester Stallone is coming to Egypt this month with his family for a vacation.

Trade Minister Tarek Kabil will angle for more Chinese investment when he heads next week to the 14-15 May Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reports. “The Chinese investments in Egypt are less than USD 600 mn, which is very small given China’s weight as the world’s second largest economy and its focus on investment in Africa,” Xinhua quotes Kabil as saying in an exclusive interview.

Egyptian business, political delegation heading to Bahrain: A delegation of Egyptian business leaders will be accompanying the ministers of tourism, trade, industry, and housing on an official visit to Bahrain next week that will be mostly centered around strengthening economic ties, Ahram Gate reports. The delegation will meet with a number of Bahraini officials and attend an SME expo slated for 15-18 May.

The first expo highlighting Egyptian exports to Africa will be held in Nairobi, Kenya, also from 15-18 May.

The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee will hold a rare Sunday meeting on 21 May to discuss interest rates.

We’re watching out for the executive regulations to the Industrial Permits Act, which the Trade and Industry Minister is legally obliged to deliver within three months’ of the law’s issuance. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi signed off the law on Monday.

The Investment Act was once again the topic of choice on the airwaves last night. On Hona Al Asema, Lamees El Hadidi had a chat with Finance Minister Amr El Garhy about issues ranging from the Investment Act and the IMF delegation visiting Cairo. El Garhy also told Lamees that he is pleased with the Investment Act in its final form, even with regards to private free zones, which will be strictly regulated, he said. The minister also noted that the IMF delegation’s visit is going well.

The 10% social welfare raise the government intends to give bureaucrats not covered bythe Civil Service Act, which is currently waiting to pass the House of Representatives, will be issued in May, El Garhy added. The raises are expected to cost the state around EGP 3.3 bn and will be paid retroactive basis to 1 July last year.

El Garhy also confirmed to Lamees that state coffers can sustain the EGP 1 bn needed toraise ration card allowances to EGP 35 from EGP 21 during Ramadan, a decision that cabinet approved yesterday (watch, runtime 9:04).

Kol Youm’s Amr Adib hosted Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy in studio to talk more aboutthe Ramadan ration card bonus and other preparations for the holy month, when consumption increases by around 50%, the minister said. The government will be partnering with the private sector to offer food items at discounted prices in more than 120 outlets across the country, he added (watch, runtime 7:54). The Mansour-family-owned supermarket chains Metro and Kheir Zaman will be among those joining the ministry’s initiative, company spokesperson Tamer Gouda told Adib (watch, runtime 1:20).

On Yahduth fi Misr, Sherif Amer hosted former Egyptian Businessmen’s Association headHussein Sabbour, who was generally positive about the act, passed earlier this week. He was primarily excited about how it could help slash red tape (because acts of parliament are universally recognized as having the ability to magically re-wire the brains of recalcitrant bureaucrats) and warned that the full impact of the act on investment and the business climate will take at least three years to be felt. Sabbour also called on the Ismail government to pass the nation’s first bankruptcy law and to make amendments to the Capital Markets Act.

Egypt has bought US wheat for the first time in four months, Bloomberg reported. US authorities “inspected 51,603 tons of wheat for export to Egypt in the week ended May 4, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed on Monday. The last shipment to the country was in mid-January.” Egypt “probably bought that last week when we had the freeze and the weather concerns … There may be some issues bubbling up with other suppliers — Europe’s a little dry, Russia’s a little bit dry.” said Don Roose, president of US Commodities Inc. Egypt has not been a major buyer of US wheat recently, as supplies from countries including Russia, Ukraine and Romania proved more attractive.

M&A WATCH- Our friends at PICO are on a tear this week: PICO Group subsidiary Cheiron Egypt acquired a 50% stake in Sahara North Bahariya Ltd for USD 83 mn from EFG Capital Partners Fund III, sources close to the matter told Al Borsa on Tuesday. Cheiron reached financial close on the transaction earlier this week after winning approval from the state’s Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation. Sahara North Bahariya owns the North Bahariya oil concession in the Western Desert. The news comes on the heels of news that Cheiron also acquired 100% of Engie’s West El Burullus gas concession earlier this week.

INVESTMENT WATCH- Lekela Power, the pan-African renewable operator that is reportedly 60% owned by funds controlled by emerging markets private equity player Actis, will sign contracts for a USD 350 mn, 250 MW wind farm in the Gulf of Suez within two months, Actis Partner Sherif El Kholy says, according to Al Mal. Lekela’s website says it has nearly 1.3 GW of capacity “at the development and construction stages” in Egypt, South Africa, Ghana and Senegal.

INVESTMENT WATCH- The Egyptian Propylene & Polypropylene Company (EPPC) is planning to invest USD 1 bn in expansion during the first quarter of next year, Al Borsa reports. The expansion will be funded through a capital increase and debt instruments, Amwal Al Khaleej’s Cairo boss Karim Saada tells the newspaper. Amwal owns 16.4% of EPPC.

It is beyond time to clean up our act as another country bans imports of our produce: The Kuwaiti government has decided to suspend its imports of Egyptian lettuce, onions, and guava, citing high levels of pesticides, Kuwait’s Al Rai reported on Tuesday. Imports of other crops from Jordan and Oman were also halted for the same reason.

House’s third swing at the 10% hardship raise could be its last: The House of Representatives risks scrapping the 10% hardship raise for bureaucrats not covered under the Civil Service Act if it fails to reach quorum for a third time during today’s general assembly session to vote, as House laws stipulate, Ahram Gate reports. House Speaker Ali Abdelaal postponed the vote yesterday and once before last week due to lack of quorum. Behind the scenes, there’s a running conflict between some MPs and the government over the size of the raises. Luckily though, anddespite the objections within their ranks, MPs appears to have resolved their issues with the Ismail cabinet, according to Youm7,agreeing that it take the form of a specific EGP sum rather than a percentage of employees’ base salary, as they had earlier demanded.

Cabinet tops up ration cards for Ramadan: The Ismail cabinet agreed at its Tuesday meeting to allocate EGP 1 bn to top-up ration cards for welfare recipients for the month of Ramadan to EGP 35 from the standard monthly EGP 21 in a bid to ease some of the pressure caused by inflation on low-income earners and the poor. Among other decisions taken yesterday, ministers::

• Signed off on amendments to the Criminal Procedure Act meant to expedite legal proceedings.
• Approved Amendments to the Agricultural Act that enforce stricter punishments of 1-2 years in prison and fines ranging from EGP 10k-50k for cotton ginners operating without the necessary permits.
• Okayed a KWD 100k (USD 328.6k) grant from the Kuwaiti Arab Economic Development Fund for agricultural development in North Sinai.

The government expects to complete its actuarial studies for the new UniversalHealthcare Act in two weeks’ time, Health Insurance Organization chief Ali Hegazy told the press on Tuesday, Al Mal says. The results of the studies were originally due in late April, according to previous statements by Health Minister Ahmed Rady, and are expected to kick-off preparations for the new bill, which has been approved by the Ismail cabinet and will be implemented first in the governorates of Suez, Port Said, and Beni Suef.

Egypt complains to world aviation body about in-flight laptop ban — at the same time the US is looking to take the ban global. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) met yesterday behind closed doors in Montreal after Egypt and the United Arab Emirates “complained their airlines had been unduly penalized by the decision to relegate laptops to the cargo hold on some flights due to security concerns.” Egypt won’t be getting a very sympathetic ear. An ICAO working paper seen by Reuters “threw its weight behind concerns that laptops are a greater security risk in the passenger cabin than in the hold, because of the threat that hidden explosives could be detonated manually.” In parallel, the body “has also asked its experts to weigh this against the safety risk of storing a larger number of flammable batteries unattended in a commercial aircraft’s baggage compartment.” Bloomberg, meanwhile, reports that “anti-terrorist officials in the U.S. are considering expanding the restrictions on carrying electronic devices in airline cabins beyond the handful of Middle East airports currently covered.”

EARNINGS WATCH-Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) Egypt reported a consolidated net profit to EGP 73.7 mn in 1Q2017, a 38.5% y-o-y decrease from the EGP 119.8 mn recorded in 1Q2016, according to an EGX filing. Revenues were up 36% y-o-y to EGP 604 mn in 1Q2017.

Delek looking to list in London, maintains Egypt is a possible export market: Israel’s Delek Group, which operates the Leviathan gas field, is considering listing in London “to help further overseas expansion,” according to Bloomberg. Leviathan is set to begin providing gas to Israel and Jordan at the end of 2019 with export plans also including shipping the output to liquefaction plants in Egypt. The company may also ship via new pipelines to markets such as Italy and Turkey, Delek’s President Asaf Bartfeld said, adding that the options are still under discussion.

US President Donald Trump has fired the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, “abruptly terminating the leader of a wide-ranging criminal investigation into whether Mr. Trump’s advisers colluded with the Russian government to steer the outcome of the 2016 presidential election.” The move immediately prompted comparisons to the “Saturday Night Massacre” of 1973, in which then-president Richard Nixon “Nixon purged the Justice Department in the middle of the Watergate investigation.” The reverberations from this one could be significant, folks, and if you — like us — are a junkie for US politics, you’ll want to nudge up the volume on your office television today. Reuters and the AP have the facts. Reuters has a long roundup of reax quotes. But the best two pieces through which to get up to speed (as of dispatch) are in the New York Times: Primary coverage here and a dive into parallels to Watergate here.

MEETING NOTES- Enterprise spoke to World Bank’s Chief Economic Advisor for MENA Shanta Devarajan for an interview at his office in Washington, DC, last week. Key takeaways:

• On job creation: “The government doesn’t necessarily need to invest in job-creating sectors. The government needs to invest in policies and regulations that get the private sector to invest in job-creating sectors,” Devarajan said. It is about implementing the policies, not just introducing them, he added, stressing on competition policies to support the job-creating SMEs.
• On how effective raising interest rates would be to combat inflation, given Egypt’s largely unbanked population, Devarajan said, “It doesn’t matter whether most Egyptians don’t have bank accounts or not, because what’s going on with the fiscal deficit is that the banks are using whatever deposits they have to buy the bonds.” Interest rates go up as an incentive to buy bonds, and every government needs a monetary policy tool to help contain inflation, which Devarajan describes as a “one shot episode” in Egypt. Bottom line: It all boils down to the fiscal deficit, he says. “The inflation and high interest rates are symptoms.”
• On the US providing “loan guarantee authority for Egypt” in a spending bill approved last week, Devarajan said it is not likely to make Egypt borrow more, because Cairo is only borrowing at the moment to finance its fiscal deficit. And despite the interest rate differential, Devarajan was cautious on foreign borrowing: “Now they’re borrowing domestically at 8%, and now you might be able to borrow in world markets at 2%,” he said, but the foreign currency risk that comes with the 2% rate gives pause.
• On growth and oil prices: All oil-importing countries in MENA (such as Egypt) are growing faster in 2017 due to low oil prices and relative political stability. “Even if oil prices stay at USD 40-50 a barrel range, I think even the oil exporters will see a slight uptick in growth,” Devarajan said.
• Shale has set a USD 60 / bbl ceiling on oil prices: “[Oil prices have not gone down] because of the US shale. It’s the non-OPEC countries that are now determining the price of oil, effectively,” said Devarajan. “If you look at it, the thing is, US shale becomes profitable at about USD 60 a barrel. And the interesting thing about shale … is that you can turn on and off production in six months.” So if the price goes up to USD 60, there will be a flood of US shale production that could go up to 1 mn barrels a day, making USD 60 effectively the new ceiling for the market.

Today’s Egypt Holiday Photo of the Day is of the Saint Catherine Monastery. Saint Catherine’s Monastery is believed to enshrine the burning bush through which God was first revealed to Moses. The image was shot for CIB’s 2016 Annual Report (microsite and print edition) by Zeina Abaza at Inktank Communications, which has produced the bank’s annual report for the past eight years.

Emerging market (EM) currencies are coming back from four years of turbulence, bringing some of the best opportunities in today’s markets, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) global fixed income outlook. GSAM sees “a rare combination of value and improving fundamentals in parts of the developing world, and currencies generally remain undervalued relative to debt … we believe [EMs] may be less exposed than most developed markets to the epicenters of today’s political risks … exogenous factors have since receded, leaving a substantial premium in emerging markets, especially in a developed market environment of negative inflation-adjusted yields.” GSAM believes central and eastern European markets have the advantages of strong BoP and trade linkages to Europe, but not “enmeshed in the euro’s problems.” The main risks within the developing world, they say, stem from China, and are positioning for weakness in Asian currencies most exposed to market- or economic turmoil in China, such as the Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong.

Goldman Sachs also believes positive economic momentum will continue to support EM earnings growth and equities. “EM equities have already rallied on the commodity price recovery and increasing sentiment that the protectionist rhetoric from Trump on trade will not be converted into actual policy. Equity valuations have been rising but are still attractive versus developed markets; the MSCI EM index is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 12.3x, a 25% discount to the MSCI World index. Despite the fundamental earnings recovery, EM remains subject to several external risks including rising interest rates and increasing geopolitical tensions.”

We Homo sapiens have a new cousin, and the back-story is awesome. A recently discovered species — Homo naledi — may have walked the earth earlier than before thought: at the same time as our direct ancestors did. Their features “seemed modern, almost human … but their brains were as small as a gorilla’s.” Oh, and they may also have been burying their dead. The National Geographic has a deep dive into the news for you anthropology geeks out there, and its fall 2015 cover story dives deeper into how Homo naledi could change our view of our own evolution. The Washington Post also does a good job of digging into the debate over whether the Naledi was burying its dead, noting that, “Ritual disposal of the dead is an advanced behavior, suggesting that a species was capable of symbolic thought and saw itself as separate from the natural world. Only humans and Neanderthals have been conclusively found to bury their dead.”

We know we’re tempting the fates by even suggesting this, but there’s just about no coverage of Egypt in the international press this morning. And what little there is falls into one of two categories: Old news or not worth reading. Enjoy the respite — it will doubtless be short-lived.

Former Deputy Prime Minister Ziad Bahaa El Din is worried about disjointed economic policy making and what he claims is a lack of transparency about the new Investment Act. He says in his weekly Al Shorouk column that he has four reservations on the new investment act. The new law brings back tax incentives that open doors for corruption and distorts the market, he says. It also complicates the land and permit allocations processes. Bahaa El Din also says it changes the nature of GAFI from an independent investment promotion body to an investment ministry-affiliated supervisory body. He adds that the law also comes at a time when the strategic vision for the country’s economic policy remains unclear. Most importantly, Bahaa El Din writes, is that the process lacked transparency and the reservations a few ministries had on it shows that not all members of the government are in agreement over the policymaking process. He is worried that this would impact the harmony of economic decision making.

Cairo recovered an Ancient Egyptian limestone relief dating back to the 30th Dynasty from an auction house in Paris, the Antiquities Ministry announced yesterday. An official there said the 80 kg tablet — which depicts goddess Sekhmet carrying the sun disk over her head next to a line of hieroglyphics — was stolen from a temple at the Saqqara necropolis sometime during the 1900s. The ministry also repatriated 44 other artefacts, including jewelry, from the Ancient Egyptian and Coptic eras.

KSA’s King Salman has invited President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to attend the Arab Islamic-American Summit scheduled to be held in Riyadh on 21 May, according to Saudi newspaper Okaz. US President Donald Trump is expected to attend the summit, which will mark his first foreign trip since taking office.

Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry is traveling to Ghana today for talks, Ahram Online reports. Shoukry will meet with his counterpart Shirley Ayorkor Botchway and parliament speaker Aaron Mike Oquaye. A joint trade committee is also set to meet.

Investment and International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr met with a delegation from the Kuwaiti Fund for Arab Economic Development on Tuesday to discuss funding for a EGP 632 mn drinking water project in North Sinai’s Al Arish, AMAY reported on Tuesday. The funding is part of a USD 900 mn aid package that the Fund pledged to deliver to Egypt over a three-year timespan. The delegation is in town for meetings through 16 May.

Coptic Orthodox Pope Tawadros II met Queen Elizabeth yesterday at the Windsor Castle, British Ambassador to Egypt John Casson announced on Twitter.

From the “Crime Pages”: The trial of Irish national Ibrahim Halawa was postponed for the twenty-third time yesterday, the Irish Times reports. Separately, the Polish Foreign Ministry is reported to be closely following a case involving the suspicious death of a 27-year-old Polish woman in Hurghada.

Norway’s Höegh began periodical servicing and maintenance operations last week on its Egypt-anchored Höegh Gallant floating storage and regasification, Al Borsa reports. The FSRU, a key part of Egypt’s natural gas import infrastructure, will be back at operating at full capacity throughout the summer months, re-gasifying 500 mcf/d.

The Oil Ministry is looking to attract USD 10 bn in investment from international oil companies during FY2017-18 to increase Egypt’s production levels, Minister Tarek El Molla tells Al Shorouk.

The Alexandria Mineral Oils Company (AMOC) is planning on investing USD 50 mn over the next three years to upgrade its gasoline production quality and reduce its carbon footprint, Al Borsa reports. The upgrades are also expected to raise the company’s revenues by USD 6-7 mn per annum, sources tell the newspaper. The company plans on using debt to fund the upgrades.

The Electricity Ministry is taking precautions to ensure there are no power cuts this Ramadan, when demand spikes in tandem with the start of summer high season, ministry spokesman Ayman Hamza tells Al Mal.

Thirty-two local and international solar power companies received initial approvals from 10 international entities for a combined total of USD 1.9 bn in funding for their projects in the second phase of the feed-in tariff program, Al Mal reports.

The Planning Ministry says the government is working on increasing Egypt’s wheat silo storage capacity to 3.13 mn tonnes by FY2017-18, according to Reuters’ Arabic service. The silo capacity was 1.528 mn tonnes in FY2015-16, the ministry said, and the increase is aimed at creating strategic grain reserves domestically. The government had said earlier this year it was going to limit the role of the private sector in wheat storage and had failed to get phase one of Blumberg Grain’s shouna program up and running in time for the harvest. The Supply Ministry has collected 1.03 mn tonnes of wheat since the beginning of the harvest season as of Tuesday, a ministry official tells Ahram Online.

Indian tourist arrivals to Egypt increased by 30% y-o-y in 1Q2017, Travel Biz Monitor reports. Egyptian tour operators have increased their promotions in India, the publication says. “This year has started with great indications about the growth from the Indian Market and Egypt tourism board is ambitious of achieving double digit growth taking the numbers to over 1,200,000 Indian arrivals by the end of FY2017,” Ismail Amer, Egyptian Tourism Counsellor in Mumbai, said.

Viking River Cruises is launching a new, all-suites riverboat to sail its Pharaohs and Pyramids cruise tour, Travel Pulse reports. You can also check out the cruise line’s press release on the topic.

Raya Contact Center is deciding between acquiring an existing company or establishing a new call center in Morocco with EGP 100 mn investments in 1Q2018, Deputy CEO Reem Saad tells Al Mal. Assessments for the expansion will be completed in 2H2017, she adds. This is part of Raya’s plans to enter the French-speaking North African region including Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria.

Egyptian banks can only do business with up seven foreign exchange bureaus at a time, according to the latest Central Bank directives issued late on Monday, Al Mal says. Banks have a three-month window to comply with new regulations and present copies of their updated contracts to the CBE.

HSBC scrapped international spending limits for Egyptian credit card users and raised the ceiling on debit card spending overseas, Youm7 reports.

The Union of Egyptian Investors Association (UEIA) plans on establishing a new holding company for investments in Africa with EGP 1 bn in capital, head Farid Khamis said on Tuesday, according to Al Borsa. A number of companies, including Qalaa Holdings and Elsewedy Electric, have expressed their interest in the venture, Khamis added.

Egyptian native Tarek Abdel Salam won a gold medal for Bulgaria at a wrestling championship on Saturday, setting off a flurry of criticism on social media against Egyptian authorities for not nurturing his talent, Ahram Online reports. Abdel Salam alleged that he faced neglect while in Egypt, and that authorities refused to pay for medical treatment for a neck injury. The wrestler then moved to Bulgaria, where he was granted the citizenship. The Egyptian Wrestling Federation has denied Abdel Salam’s accusations, saying it covered his medical expenses.

Producers spent EGP 2 bn on making and promoting “mosalsalat” for Ramadan, Al Masry Al Youm says. Adel Emam’s show during the holy month is said to have cost EGP 80 mn to produce.

Security forces arrested yesterday an Egyptian man who allegedly threatened to blow up a FlyNas flight heading to Cairo from Jeddah, Al Masry Al Youm reports. The man was not carrying any weapons or explosives. The story is being noticed by the foreign press, with outlets such as the New York Times picking up Reuters’ coverage, which suggests the retired textile worker may have been mentally unstable.

Kuwait granted Egypt KWD 300k (c. USD 985k) to assist in clearing the North Coast of Second World War landmines, Ahram Online reports. The package will feed into the second phase of the North Coast development project, through the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development.