Pharaohs lose Africa Cup of Nations to Cameroon

The Finance Ministry was expected to sign off yesterday on accounting regulations governing how businesses treat expenses incurred in sourcing FX outside the banking system for the period between 1 January 2016 to 3 November 2016, according to statements by Deputy Finance Minister Amr El Monayer picked up by Al Mal. As we noted last month, these accounting procedures had been developed by the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority in cooperation with the Egyptian Society for Accountants and Auditors. The ministry had previously laid out procedures for writing off losses equivalent to the difference between the parallel market rate and the CBE rate prior to the float for 2013 through to 2015. We hope to get some clarity on this today.

Keep your ear to the ground: The EU will be talking about us today. Fresh from a summit in Malta on Friday at which European Union leaders discussed Brexit and US President Donald Trump, the European Union’s Foreign Affairs Council turns its attention to Egypt when it meets today in Brussels. On Egypt, council members will “discuss the situation in Egypt and the way forward in EU-Egypt relations. Ministers may also more specifically address migration, counter-terrorism and Egypt’s role in the region,” according to the Committee’s website. The situation in Ukraine, Libya and the so-called Middle East peace process are also on the agenda.

Cry “Havoc” and let slip the chickens of war: The Ismail government is looking to increase poultry imports in the hope of curbing the rising price of local output, Al Shorouk reports. The Supplies Authority is legally exempt from taxes and allowed to use imports to regulate the market, Prime Minister Sherif Ismail said. The government had backtracked on a decision to ease customs on poultry imports last November in the face of backlash from domestic producers, who said the move threatened the industry.

The UAE gets it right — again. Unless we’re mistaken, the Emirates are about to open the door to permanent residency in a bid to lure and retain top talent. The UAE’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohamed bin Rashed Al Maktoum, is said to have ordered yesterday the setup of a committee that will create a special visa system for “to attract the most notable, exceptional regional and international talents.”

A USD 100 bn windfall? The Donald’s drive to rollback post-Great Recession financial regulations created under the Dodd-Frank Act could allow the six biggest US banks to “return more than USD 100 bn in capital to investors over time through dividends and share buybacks,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Prime Minister Sherif Ismail deflected rumors that candidates for cabinet posts are turning down the opportunity to serve because of the low salary paid to ministers, Al Shorouk reported. There’s still no word on when the new lineup will be announced; a spokesman for Ismail said late last week that it is still a work in progress.

Interest rate watch: The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet on Thursday, 16 February to review rates. The MPC’s full-year 2017 schedule is here.

Flights from Russia to resume? Keep an eye on 23 February, the date state-owned Russian news service Sputnik said had been penciled in for the likely resumption of flights to Egypt from Russia. The Egyptian Civil Aviation Ministry has since said no date has been set.

State visit to Washington? US President Donald Trump has reportedly invited President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to visit the White House. We’re watching closely for signs the day may be announced.

As we expected, the African Cup of Nations final was on everyone’s mind last night, and the talking heads were no different.

Hona Al Assema’s Lamees Al Hadidi sums up our thoughts perfectly on the national team’s performance: “We never expected to reach this stage in the championship … we are winners anyway.” Sports writer Essam Shaltout called her to say that there is no shame in winning the silver medal (watch; runtime: 10:49). Lamees interviewed football analyst after football analyst to discuss the team’s performance (watch, runtime: 57: 02). Kol Youm’s Amr Adib echoed Lamees’ sentiment (watch, runtime: 5: 48), leading us to wonder: Can an echo be louder than the original sound? Doesn’t this somehow contradict the laws of physics?

Before the match, Al Hayah Al Youm went for the tear-jerker, interviewing relatives of the players, including Ahmed Fathy’s family (watch; runtime: 6:11), Essam El Hadary’s mother (watch; runtime: 4: 25), and Mohamed Elneny’s uncle (watch; runtime: 4: 02) and others.

Al Hayah Al Youm, didn’t just end it with football, hosting Pharmacists Syndicate official Ayman Osman to discuss the victory of its lobbying (nagging) campaign to get the Health Ministry to approve set profit margins for pharmacists following the meds price hikes (details in Health + Education). Osman announced that the Syndicate cancelled its strike planned for 12 February (watch; runtime: 3:03).

Yahduth fi Masr’s Sherif Amer continued to delve into the case of the alleged Louvre-stabber Abdullah El-Hamahmy. Security sources tell him that the suspect has a criminal record and that initial investigations showed that he twice visited Turkey. Still, Amer’s sources claim the man had no official political ties. Two of his relatives were arrested last week, they added.

Cameroon walked away with the African Cup of Nations championship after defeating Egypt 2-1 in what was a disappointing final for Egypt’s national team. Unlike previous games that saw the Pharaohs scoring in the last minutes, Mohamed Elneny — who sat out the last two games due to injury — scored in the 22nd minute (watch) on the back of strong play from Amr Warda and Mohamed Salah. The goal put Egypt at ease and the second half of the match saw the Pharaohs’ performance lose its luster. Cameroon managed to get two shots past goalkeeper Essam El Hadary at the 59th and 88th minutes. 44-year-old El Hadary, whose return to the national team for the championship brought back warm, fuzzy memories of Egypt’s last Afcon win in 2010, was named Best Goalkeeper for the fourth time in his career.

“They asked me to qualify for the Africa Cup of Nations and play it; they didn’t ask me to win it,” said head coach Héctor Cúper. In a piece by the Guardian which juxtaposes the downward spirals in the fortunes of both Cúper and the national team over the past few years, the head coach discusses what was at stake in the tournament, and how, even in second place, the team beat all the odds and resurrected his career.

Waiting for Godot: There is little evidence an economic recovery is underway, according to the Emirates NBD Egypt’s PMI reading, which registered 43.3 in January. “Egypt’s non-oil private sector began 2017 in the same way that it ended 2016, with economic conditions worsening again. Underpinning the downturn were ongoing reductions in output and new orders,” which fell for the sixteenth straight month. Average prices charged increased at survey-record pace and employment fell for the twentieth straight month as well. Jean-Paul Pigat, Senior Economist at Emirates NBD points to the silver lining in the report, saying it is “encouraging that the new ‘Future Output Index’ of the PMI suggests that firms have become increasingly optimistic on the economic outlook following November’s devaluation of the EGP.”

IPO WATCH- The government is reportedly considering increasing the percentage of Banque du Caire shares set to be listed to 30% from an initial plan of 20%, sources told Al Shorouk. The extra shares would be listed as GDRs in London to “attract foreign investors.” Banque du Caire had informed the EGX of its desire to list 562.5 mn shares at a par value of EGP 4 per share, giving it a market capitalization of EGP 2.25 bn. EFG Hermes and HSBC are managing the issuance and Baker & McKenzie are legal advisors.

In other news from capital markets: Local franchise The Bakery Shop (TBS) is looking to raise USD 30-40 mn to finance expansion plans, Al Mal reported. TBS hired EFG Hermes to manage the capital increase and is looking to add new shareholders. The chain currently operates 45 branches across Egypt with plans to add 10 new ones this year, Al Mal says. TBS, which began operations in 2008, also owns the Four Fat Ladies brand. The transaction has also been described as a possible IPO, so keep an eye on this one, folks.

Elsewhere this morning, the Union National Bank of Egypt has submitted documents to the EGX for an EGP 63.7 mn capital increase through issuing 11,375,000 shares at par value of EGP 5.6 per share. The capital increase brings the bank’s issued and paid-in capital to EGP 1.34 bn and will be financed from retained earnings. UNB Egypt is the local arm of Abu Dhabi-based Union National Bank.

Egypt’s foreign reserves rose to USD 26.363 bn in January, the CBE said in a statement, a gain of just under USD 2.1 bn as the proceeds from the USD 4 bn eurobond issuance were partially offset by a USD 700 mn payment to the Paris Club, Al Borsa reports. CBE Governor Tarek Amer had also said in early January that Egypt would be repaying a USD 1 bn loan from Turkey.

Sorry shipping lines, our reserves are good and we don’t need an advance on FX. The Suez Canal Authority has suspended negotiations with international shipping lines to collect shipping fees three years in advance in USD in exchange for reduced fees, SCA Chairman Mohab Mamish told Al Mal. The initiative, which was intended to shore up foreign reserves, is no longer necessary as the country’s economic conditions are improving, said Mamish.

1.2 mn Kramers purged as cabinet looks to make further moves on subsidies: Some 1.2 mn welfare cheats have lost access to state food subsidies rolls in phase one of a purge of the nation’s welfare rolls. The names removed were dead, duplicates and individuals living abroad, said Supply Minister Mohamed Ali El Sheikh. Phase two of the purge will begin once a joint cabinet committee finishes laying out eligibility guidelines for food subsidies, the minister said.Statements attributed to El Sheikh last month had put the target for the initial phase of the Kramer purge at 14 mn, which would make this a sharp decline. Sources from the supply ministry had expected phase two to cut 40 mn, the highest target announced to date.

The timing of the announcement comes as the government is expected to announce further subsidy cuts during the visit this week of an IMF committee. The move is designed to show progress on the Ismail government’s reform program as Egypt asks the fund to hand over the second payment under an IMF facility. Ittihadiya stressed yesterday that electricity subsidies will cost state coffers some EGP 65 bn, up from a budgeted EGP 30 bn this fiscal year, in a statement following a meeting between President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker. This could be seen as a precursor to an announcement on that front. Last week’s price hikes of subsidized goods was met with backlash, particularly from the House of Representatives, adding pressure to the government already stuck between a rock (popular unrest) and a hard place (IMF conditions).

We have a list of industries that will qualify for investment incentives granted under the proposed Investment Act, and it is as varied as one would expect. The list comes courtesy of Youm7, with highlights including:

• Industry, which we assume to mean manufacturing of any form;
• Mining;
• Desert reclamation and arid agriculture;
• Animal products;
• Transportation, logistics and storage;
• Oil and gas;
• Infrastructure development including telecoms, water and power utilities;
• Renewable energy projects;
• Recycling and waste-to-energy projects;
• Pharma and healthcare;
• Education;
• Information technology;
• Insurance and factoring;
• Honorable mentions: R&D for space and aeronautical industry (doesn’t hurt to aim high, we suppose).

EFG Hermes tops January brokerage league tables. EFG Hermes closed January 2017 with a 18.8% market share, followed by CI Capital (8.8%), Pioneers Securities (5.4%), Beltone (5.3%), and Sigma Securities (3.4%).

Is the government is looking to regulate tuition fees at int’l schools, again? Prime Minister Sherif Ismail announced the formation of a committee which will look into how international and private schools set tuition fees, according to a cabinet statement. The move comes in response to complaints of a sharp rise in private school tuition fees. The guidelines governing private and international schools will need to be restructured to ensure that schools comply with Education Ministry regulations, Ismail said. We don’t expect these statements to be welcomed by administrators of international schools, who have been trying to get out of the yolk of the Education Ministry and want to be regulated by the Investment Ministry after the Education Ministry had place International School of Choueifat and the American International School of Cairo under administrative and financial control last year.

Tourism Development Authority (TDA) head Hisham El Demery confirmed allegations that the authority is behind on payments to ad agency JWT, but said that the authority is not to blame (shocker, we know), according to Al Mal. El Demery also said the TDA is working on a payment schedule for German companies in preparation to launch a promotional campaign in Germany, Youm7 reported. As we noted last week, JWT chief Hany Shoukry said the agency has only received EGP 8.5 mn from what it’s owed for the This is Egypt campaign, and has had to pay some USD 24 mn out of pocket.

MOVES- Yasser Sobhi has reportedly left the Finance Ministry to join the International Monetary Fund as an expert advisor starting from mid-Feb, an unnamed source told Reuters. The newswire identifies Sobhi as the deputy finance minister for macro-fiscal policies, a role we know has been held by former World Bank economist Ahmed Kouchouk since March 2016, when Amr El Garhy became minister. The source said Sobhi, who has been with the ministry since 2005, will join the IMF fiscal policy unit working with Saudi Arabia’s Finance Ministry.

MOVES- Hussein Abd Rabo was appointed chairman and editor-in-chief of Al Borsa newspaper. The paper says Abd Rabo partnered in setting up Al Borsa in 2008 and was, most recently, the paper’s deputy editor-in-chief.

**Earnings watch: Credit Agricole Egypt reported a 24.2% y-o-y rise in net interest income to EGP 3.35 bn in FY2016 from EGP 2.70 bn the year before, the bank said in a statement. Net profit after tax rose to EGP 1.35 bn from EGP 1.04 bn in FY2015.

Al Azhar (carefully) rejects El Sisi’s move to modernize divorce law. More significantly this morning: The Associated Press’s excellent Hamza Hendawi picked up Al Azhar’s “carefully-worded statement” that openly rejects President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s proposal that the House of Representatives take up legislation that would strip a man of the ‘right’ to verbally divorce his wife. Scholars say the practice has been uncontested since the seventh century and note that banning it will not help curb Egypt’s high divorce rates, as most cases are officiated and documented. El Sisi proposed the legislation during a televised address in January.

Cross-border M&A activity in the Middle East was “robust” in 2016, despite global activity taking a hit from political and economic events, according to Baker & McKenzie’s Cross-Border M&A Index. The Middle East’s position on the index hit 181.6 in 4Q2016, with the UAE topping the list as the most active in the region in both outbound and inbound investment. The value of inbound agreements in the region more than doubled to reach USD 10 bn, although the volume of agreements for the year remained unchanged at 29. The technology, energy, and utilities sectors accounted for half of the year’s largest deals, with the technology sector reaching USD 66.9 bn in deals. “The remarkable increase in cross-regional deal value and the steady flow of deals for 2016 bodes well for M&A in the coming year,” Corporate/M&A Partner Will Seivewright said. The law firm said last month it expects USD 2.5 bn in M&A activity in Egypt this year.

Egyptian national Abdullah Reda El Hamahmy, who allegedly attacked two soldiers with a machete near Paris’ Louvre Museum before being shot in the abdomen on Friday, is currently in custody in a hospital but is refusing to speak to investigators, Reuters reported. French investigators are working to determine whether El Hamahmy acted alone.

Sudan’s President Omar Al Bashir has threatened to resort to the UN Security Council if Egypt refuses to start negotiations over the Halayeb triangle. In an interview with Al Arabiya, Al Bashir insisted he believes the area is Sudan’s and should be ceded by Egypt. He also denied that Sudan is harboring any members of the Ikhwan but accused Egyptian intelligence of “supporting” opposition members in Sudan. Okay, skippy. You have a great day, now.

A US federal appeals court rejected the Justice Department’s request to immediately reinstate President Donald Trump’s travel ban on nationals from seven Muslim-majority countries, The New York Times reports. The Trump administration’s response is expected today.

New England Patriots come from behind to win (American) football Super Bowl once again: It looked like the Falcons would be the ones clipping the Pats’ wings as the Atlanta team opened a 28-3 lead — until the Patriots came back to win the game 34-28 in the first overtime period played in Super Bowl history. The New York Times has the blow-by-blow and ESPN has stats, game highlights and post-game analysis for hardcore fans. The good folks at SB Nation also have wall-to-wall coverage with more flair and snark than ESPN will ever muster.

Egypt’s defeat at the Afcon final is getting coverage far and wide in the international press, with the story being picked up by ESPN, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNN, Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, The Guardian, BBC, the Associated Press, and the Daily Mail. We’re going to go sit in the corner and cry a for a few minutes now before moving on.

A group of rights activists are attempting to annul Egypt’s 1914 Assembly Law arguing that it was repealed as early as 1928, Ahmed Aboulenein writes for Reuters. The law, which has been used to jail opposition activist over the past three years, was handed down under the British occupation in the lead up to World War One. In 1928, the then-parliament passed a bill to repeal it, but King Fuad I neither signed nor vetoed it within 30 days and prevented it being published in the official gazette. The activists argue that the fact that the 1928 repeal bill went unpublished did not detract from its legal status and that therefore the continued use of the Assembly Law is illegal. The Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies published a 95-page report on the law last week.

• Activist Sharif Abdel Kouddous’ piece for the outstanding outfit The Intercept on the alleged hacking of activists by the Egyptian state is getting wide attention on social media despite treading little new ground.
• A Hamas official said the organization “would be happy” if Egypt were to broker a deal for a captive swap between Hamas and Israel, but Cairo has thus far showed no signs it is interested in doing so, according to a report from Reshet Bet relayed by Arutz Sheva.

Sheikh MJ? A bearded salafi man shows he still has some sweet dance moves that left us impressed — but very confused at the same time (runtime 00:27).

British psychotherapist Jo Jackson recently published “Too Loud a Silence,” a novel that tells the story of a London-raised Egyptian orphan who returns to Egypt in the midst of the 2011 revolution to discover her roots. Jackson’s story was inspired by her time living in Cairo in the 1980s, during which she regularly visited an orphanage. Check out the book on Amazon or Jackson’s website.

International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr met with Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi yesterday ahead of a planned Egyptian-Indonesian business council meeting, Al Ahram reported.

The Cairo Chamber of Commerce signed a memorandum of understanding with the Korean-Egyptian Development Council to increase bilateral trade and exchange information about the two countries’ markets, Al Shorouk reported.

Korean investment in waste-to-energy contingent on tariff changes: GTC Korea could invest USD 450 mn in waste-to-energy products across Egypt if the Electricity Ministry agrees to amend the feed-in tariff to EGP 3 per kWh from a current offer of EGP 1.45 per kWh, Al Borsa reports.

The Suez Canal Authority started work on an EGP 3 bn upgrade of West Port Said Port, Chairman Mohab Mamish told Al Mal. The project will be self-financed by the authority and will see both the construction of new container terminals and a general upgrade of infrastructure.

Aswan Cement is looking to acquire a cement production license from the Industrial Development Authority (IDA) in a bid to boost its production capacity to 3.5 mn tonnes per annum from 1.5 mn today, Al Borsa reports. At the end of 2016, the IDA had tendered 14 licenses, but awarded only three to Egyptian Cement, South Valley Cement, and El Sewedy Cement. The IDA opened tenders for the remaining 11 last month and has now announced a deadline for applications. Industry players say there is oversupply in the market, a development that will only worsen when the world’s largest cement plant comes online in Sinai by 2018 or so.

Members of the Export Council for Engineering Industries hope to boost the industry group’s aggregate exports by 25% this year to reach USD 3 bn, as last year’s foreign currency shortage that had restricted production has now eased and will allow manufacturers to import the raw materials they need, council member Mohamed El Aidy told Amwal Al Ghad. According to El Aidy, the council also plans on pulling 100 small and medium-sized factories into the council.

The Pharmacists’ Syndicate has cancelled its planned strike on 12 February after the Health Ministry has acquiesced to its demands that pharma companies ensure they receive discounts to guarantee a profit margin of 23% for domestic meds and 15% for imported products (directive 499). This will be applied to meds which saw a price increase last month, a Syndicate source tells Al Mal. Health Minister Ahmed Rady also caved on reverting to directive 200, which gives the Syndicate a say in the opening of a new pharmacy, including the approval of the pharmacy’s trade name, within the syndicate. This follows a meeting between Rady and Syndicate members, the culmination of mounting pressure from the Syndicate which had planned to strike on 12 February. Let us hope they stop whining now.

Heliopolis for Housing and Development are investing a total of EGP 560 mn in FY2016-17, deputy Chairman Wael Youssef told Al Mal. The investment will include EGP 330 mn for infrastructure and facilities, and the rest towards housing projects, he added.

The New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) did not officially notify TMG Holding that it would stop granting the company building licenses for Madinaty, TMG claimed in a statement. Earlier Al Shorouk had reported that the NUCA stopped granting licenses to TMG following a previously filed lawsuit against NUCA requesting the company be allowed to pay lower-than-agreed-upon interest in the EGP 2.9 bn settlement deal announced in February 2015.

Telecom Egypt (TE) is still in talks with the three mobile network operators over the technical and financial aspects of the domestic-roaming agreement, unnamed sources tell Al Mal. The negotiations include the methods for technical interconnectivity between the companies and pricing for network use, the source added. The NTRA had given the companies until 15 February to reach an agreement before it gets involved. Meanwhile, the CIT Ministry tells Al Borsa that the MNOs will receive their 4G spectra on time.

Global Telecom Holding will be signing an unsecured short-term loan agreement for USD 200 mn with Citi and ING Bank to finance its share buy-back program, Al Borsa reported. GTH subsidiaries Telecom Ventures LLC and International Wireless Communications Pakistan LLC are guarantors.

The Transportation Ministry will issue a public tender in March for the construction of a 100-feddan dry port in partnership with the private sector, Transportation Minister Galal Saeed told Al Borsa. The dry port will be followed by a tender to build a 300-feddan logistics center as part of the ministry’s comprehensive logistic strategy that will serve domestic and international trade, he added. We had previously reported that the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the Egyptian National Port Authority are backing plans to establish a dry port and a logistics center in Sixth of October.

25% of the agreements inked at furniture expo Furnex were export contracts, Al Borsa reports. Some 220 buyers from 35 countries are said to have inked contracts.

The Supreme Constitutional Court has ruled that Article 52 of the Civil Service Act, which grants Muslims the right to take a holiday for hajj, is unconstitutional, as it does not provide the equivalent right for Copts to visit Jerusalem, Egypt Independent reported (the story incorrectly names the article in question as Article 71).