Oxfam’s headlining stats on global inequality are clickbait, with little more to offer. The anti-poverty charity published a blogpost during the week with the uber-sensationalist headline “
Just 8 men own same wealth as half the world.” The well-meaning report goes on to show “how our broken economies are funneling wealth to a rich elite at the expense of the poorest in society, the majority of whom are women. The richest are accumulating wealth at such an astonishing rate that the world could see its first tn’aire in just 25 years. To put this figure in perspective – you would need to spend [USD 1 mn] every day for 2738 years to spend [USD 1 tn].” Aside from how they are ignoring interest income which would be earned by that hypothetical tn’aire,
Oxfam’s logic is fundamentally awry.
The claim is “pretty obscene, on its face,” Felix Salmon writes, “except, when you look closer, it doesn’t really tell you very much.” Salmon explains: “If you look at the numbers that the statistic is based on, from Forbes and Credit Suisse, you’ll see that the equality here is that the eight richest people in the world have a combined net worth of roughly [USD 426 bn], or 0.16% of all the world’s wealth. Is it really true that the bottom 50% of the world’s population accounts for only 0.16% of the wealth on the planet? Well, not really. The bottom 50% comprises five different deciles. Of those deciles, the fourth has 0.17% of the world’s wealth, and the fifth has 0.32%. Those are both very small numbers—but they’re both bigger than 0.16%. So something funny is going on here—and that something funny is debt. When Oxfam looks at net worth, it adds up your assets, and then subtracts your liabilities. And when your liabilities are bigger than your assets, that means you have negative net worth. According to Oxfam’s methodology,
the bottom 10% of the world’s population has a net worth of one [tn] negative USD—an almost inconceivably large sum.” Even with Oxfam trying to adjust for that, they ignored the debts of the populations occupying the second and third and fourth and fifth deciles of the global population, which are naturally larger than those owed by people in the bottom decile because “as your wealth goes up, after all, your assets rise (by definition), but so do your liabilities.”
This is not the first time Oxfam tries to argue using that faulty logic. Economist Tim Harford followed Oxfam’s 2014 headline argument that the richest 85 people in the world controlled as much wealth as the combined fortunes of the poorest half of the global population, and dismantled it fully. Harford noted that, using the same token, his then-newborn baby “controls more wealth than the poorest one and a half bn people on the planet” and, following that same unsound logic, “he’s also richer than an indebted graduate of Harvard Business School.” Salmon hammers down the same point: “consider this: Would you rather have USD 75,000 in the bank and no debt and no degree, or USD 75,000 in the bank and USD 75,000 in student loans and a four-year college degree? As far as the Oxfam methodology is concerned, the difference is enormous: The person with USD 75,000 and no debt is in the top 10% of the world’s wealth distribution, while the person with the college degree is in the bottom 10%.
And yet there’s a right answer to the question: You’re much better off with USD 75,000 in debt and a college degree than you are with no debt at all.” Salmon recommends a change in the methodology to just comparing a wealth ranking based on assets, not net worth.
Does this mean we’re dismissing Oxfam’s concerns? Absolutely not. Global inequality is a serious challenge, but treating it facetiously with sensationalist headlines does more harm than good. One take we recommend on the issue, going beyond clickbait, is Branko Milanovic’s book Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization, in which he uses vast datasets to explain “the benign and malign forces that make inequality rise and fall within and among nations. He also reveals who has been helped the most by globalization, who has been held back, and what policies might tilt the balance toward economic justice.” The book is available to buy
on Amazon.