Our mini-rant of yesterday on the futility of interest rate hikes set off a conversation with one of our favourite readers. The reader, a finance-industry insider well-known to many Enterprise subscribers, thinks we didn’t take our point all the way home.
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CBE Corridor Rate hikes make a bad situation worse
There’s a big difference between “corridor rate” and the general term “interest rates”.
The corridor rate is the rate that banks use as a reference for pricing all private-sector lending and, by extension (though not automatically), what they bid on treasury bills and bonds. Just saying “interest rates” refers to every type of rate. But which ones are more relevant to the case at hand?
Let’s look at the objective: Clearly, the issue is to defend the EGP at a time when there’s pressure to devalue. The logic is this: Raise rates people get on EGP assets and they will be less inclined to hold USD at zero interest. But which ‘people’?
The Central Bank of Egypt has raised the reference corridor rate (and the discount rate) by 300 bps in the past 10 months. In the same period, treasury bill rates rose about 4%. The average rates banks offer depositors across the sector barely rose — in some cases 1% or 2% for short-term deposits; longer term CDs haven’t moved much.
Who finds the EGP more attractive in this scenario? No one. If you don’t transmit (or limit) interest rate increases to the retail base (around 65% of private money in the banking system), then you’re only targeting treasury bill investors (mostly banks), hoping that foreign money goes there. Investors in short-term hot money to support the EGP? They still didn’t come. On the other hand, the government and the entire private sector are suffering from an aggressive rise in borrowing costs.
Or are we trying to stifle the economy to somehow force a reduced demand for USD? I hope not.
Any further increase in the corridor rate by the CBE (and any resulting increase in t-bill rates) will only do harm. The notion that you have to raise rates to fight inflation misses the point: Not all inflation is created equal. Inflation due to devaluation, and a resulting growth in money supply, has a ‘reset’ effect. That’s not the same as an overheating economy, which can cause rolling inflation. Should a devaluation see the EGP fall to a rate at which it can settle, there’s no further inflation from that cause. If, on the other hand, a devaluation is less than satisfactory to the market, and we try to increase rates to help make it satisfactory, we will end up worse off.
The best way forward after a devaluation is to (a) make the investment environment more attractive, which is helped by lowering borrowing costs and (b) making savings in EGP attractive by passing enough of the previous rate increases to the depositors.
Who might not like this? Banks, who have been the happy beneficiaries of large increase in margin between the cost of deposits and their return on government lending. But the good news is, banks were doing fine when their margin was thinner. Lending to the corporate and investment sector would increase, and so would the return on savings. In parallel, the government could slash 10s of bns off the budget deficit.
Part of the CBE’s role is to supervise and ensure a healthy banking system. It’s in good shape. The economy is not.