Hisham Ramez isn’t going back to CIB + EFSA gives you an extra two weeks to disclose your 1Q2016 financials

Analysts expect the CBE to hold rates steady today at its MPC meeting. Eight out of 10 contributors to a Reuters poll say they did not expect a hike despite suggestions to the contrary making the rounds of the market earlier in the week. “The central bank increased interest rates by an aggressive 150 basis points at the last meeting as a preemptive move against likely inflationary pressures following the March 14 devaluation of the pound,” EFG Hermes’ Mohamed Abu Basha told the wire. “We don’t see another hike as likely at this meeting. The central bank needs to assess the impact of the previous hike before embarking on its next move, in our view,” he added.

And across the pond, Donald Trump has given a foreign policy speech (shockingly, it centers on “America first” exceptionalism with a heavy dose of “my way or the highway” for allies and enemies alike) and Bernie Sanders may be signalling he’s accepting that he is unlikely to become the Democratic nominee.

Next weekend is a four-day break for Coptic Easter (Sunday), Sham El Nessim (Monday), and Labour Day (also Sunday), all rolled into one.

** ENTERPRISE IS ON VACATION because of the holiday break. Our Egypt Editions (English and Arabic) will be off, as will the GCC Edition. We will also take a break this Friday from the Weekend Edition. We’ll be back on the morning of Tuesday, 3 May for a delightfully short work week.

As for conferences set to take place next week:

• Monday-Tuesday: The two-day Middle East Investment Summit 2016 is kicking off at the Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.
• Wednesday-Saturday: The Cairo Food Africa Exhibition is taking place 4-7 May at the Cairo International Convention and Exhibition Center.
• Saturday-Sunday: The Techne Summitis happening at Bibliotheca Alexandrina. You can register here.

Former Central Bank of Egypt Governor Hisham Ramez will not be returning to CIB, the bank confirmed in a brief statement (Arabic at EGX, English on its website). Ramez was appointed by Prime Minister Sherif Ismail to chair the Arab International Bank, effectively barring him from joining CIB as vice-chairman and managing director.

The MENA region saw only two IPOs raising USD 615 mn in 1Q2016, “representing another quarter with limited IPO activity,” according to EY. “Q1 2016 witnessed limited IPO activity, in line with H2 2015, as volatility in the Mena capital markets continued, primarily driven by fluctuating oil prices and certain global factors. Egypt and Saudi continue to lead the limited IPO activity in the Mena region driven by investor demand and strong fundamentals. There is a strong pipeline of companies in Mena that are IPO ready and waiting for the right time to go to market,” EY’s MENA Transaction Leader said. EY’s MENA Strategic Growth Markets and IPO Leader added that “Egypt and Saudi Arabia continue to be the most active Mena exchanges in Q1 2016, continuing on from 2015, where IPOs in Saudi Arabia and Egypt represented eight out 14 IPOs executed in the year.” We would expect the firm’s “IPO Eye” to appear here on its website alongside the 3Q and 4Q2015 editions, but it had yet to be posted as of dispatch time.

OTMT’s legal representatives have begun meetings with the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority to resolve the issues raised over OTMT’s ownership structure and move forward with the acquisition of CI Capital, Al Borsa said. Meanwhile, OTMT and CIB have agreed to push the deadline for the acquisition forward another two weeks, the third such delay as the deadline for the acquisition’s completion expires today, Al Mal reports.

Egypt’s cycle of doom: The stopgap measures to fix Egypt’s financial problems in the short term are “compounding the problem in the longer term,” Patrick Werr writes for The National. The large budget deficit is the root of Egypt’s problems, the veteran finance writer suggests, and Egypt is compounding the problem by “printing money” to finance it. This creates a vicious cycle as it fuels inflation and “if the government doesn’t increase the price of subsidised goods to match this inflation (which it rarely does), the cost of the subsidies rises as well.” This further fuels inflation and paves the way for bigger budget deficits down the road.

The Central Bank of Egypt has shut down five FX bureaus for “manipulating” the USD exchange rate, Al Shorouk reported. A source told the paper the companies were engaged in large-scale speculation in the market and manipulated the parallel market exchange rate. The parallel market shrugged off the clampdown, with the USD gaining strength in the past few days, reaching a rate of EGP 10.80 to the USD 1 on Wednesday, Al Shorouk. This reversal comes after a week that saw the USD go from EGP 11.80 to EGP 10.50 after the CBE shut down nine FX exchange bureaus and the UAE announced a USD 4 bn aid package.

The Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority appears to have given companies two extra weeks in which to file their 1Q2016 results. Companies whose fiscal year begins on 1 January will have until 31 May to report. Similarly, corporations whose fiscal year begins 1 July will have until 31 November to make their first-quarter disclosure. The extensions are a one-off for this year only — we’ll be back to the normal disclosure cycle in 2017. News of the extension was included in a notice on amendments to listing regulations, where changes include the new restriction on the sale of 50% of a company’s non-liquid assets without approval from general assemblies and counting stock held by parent companies in subsidiaries as treasury shares. You can read the notice here in pdf (Arabic).

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has earmarked EUR 300 mn in financing to support Egyptian SMEs this year, said Philip ter Woort, director of the EBRD in Egypt. These funds will be channeled to around 320 businesses through the National Bank of Egypt, the National Bank of Kuwait, and the Qatar National Bank. Speaking at a forum organized by the Fayoum governorate, ter Woort said 39% of private sector businesses have no access to bank financing.

Cabinet, CBE mull bond issues targeting GCC investors: The government is planning bond issues targeting Gulf Cooperation Council investors, Al Borsa reports, saying the tenor and price of the bonds is yet to be determined. The story suggests the drive may also see new life breathed into the nation’s secondary bond market.

King Salman Bridge under study: An Egyptian technical committee has been formed to study the announced King Salman Bridge project, said Transport Minister Galal Saeed, Al Shorouk reported. The project had been discussed years ago but needed higher approval before it could be implemented, he added. Saeed dismissed suggestions that Egypt dig a tunnel rather than build a bridge, saying a tunnel wouldn’t be financially feasible. Previous discussion of the project came to an end in 1988.

The British Embassy in Cairo confirmed yesterday that an Egyptian man is presumed dead in London, saying in its first statement following the death of Adel Habib that it is following the case closely and expressing “sincere condolences to the family of the victim.” A body believed to be Habib’s was found in connection with a fire early in the morning of Monday, 25 April, and the embassy statement noted that a man has been arrested on suspicion of arson with intent to endanger life and has been bailed to a date in mid-June. The Metropolitan Police’s investigation continues. Egypt’s Foreign Affairs Ministry has also released a statement saying is working with the British to facilitate a visa for Habib’s family to go to the UK, according to Al Masry Al Youm.

England not seafty: In related news, a number of Egyptians have coalesced online to exploit Adel Habib’s tragic death by starting a social media campaign titled #England_not_seafty on Facebook and Twitter to communicate to the world the systemic seafty problems facing England. To our knowledge, seafty officials have yet to comment on the campaign. England is well-known for suffering from a number of structural seafty problems, including Jack the Ripper. We will closely monitor any changes in the flow of tourists to the UK following this major development. Until then, please stay seafe everybody.

Qatar National Bank (QNB) is investigating an alleged security breach of 1.5GB of customer data posted online this week, Reuters reported on Wednesday. The leaked data includes account information for Al Jazeera journalists, members of the ruling Al Thani family, and government officials, among others. Some files had pictures of account holders from Facebook and LinkedIn, according to the report. Currently there’s no word on the exact scope of the beach and whether it impacts clients at the bank’s Egyptian unity QNB Al Ahli.

… Hackers have reportedly already attempted to exploit the financial data leaked from QNB, according to the International Business Times. “There has already been three failed attempts to login to my [bank] account since yesterday,” an anonymous source was quoted as saying. “I know this because I get a text message every time it happens.” The source was instructed by the bank to change their username and password, and no money was lost, according to the report. A number of public figures in government and media confirmed to Reuters their leaked account details were accurate. “Referring to social media speculation in regard to an alleged data breach, it is QNB Group policy not to comment on reports circulated via social media,” according to a statement from the bank on Tuesday, saying “there is no financial impact on our clients or the Bank.

A police sergeant was arrested on Wednesday for shooting a microbus driver over a dispute of the fare in Al Nozha, Aswat Masriya reports. The fight erupted between the policeman and the microbus’ fare collector, prompting the police NCO to draw his weapon, which discharged and hit the driver instead, security sources said. El Tahrir is reporting that the driver has died.

The Mall of Egypt will be inaugurated in September, Majid Al Futtaim (MAF) Group announced. MAF has invited potential tenants to review progress on construction, according to Al Shorouk. Mall of Egypt involves an EGP 5 bn investment and includes a Vox cinema complex and a ski slope. Meanwhile, Yellow Cab Pizza is coming to Egypt and Jordan as part of Max’s Group Inc (MGI) international expansion strategy, the Manilla Times reported. The Philippines-based company has entered into a development agreement with Jalal Holding to establish at least five Yellow Cab Pizza stores in Jordan and 10 outlets in Egypt within five years.

Oil broke above USD 45 a barrel for the first time since November as markets reacted to the Fed keeping rates unchanged at 0.25%-0.5% and “left open the door to raising interest rates in June by nodding to improvement in global financial markets.” The increase pushes the price of oil close to USD 50, which BP, rig-owner Nabors Industries, and explorer Pioneer Natural Resources all said yesterday is the “magic number” when it comes to bringing US production back on its feet.

Those weak oil prices are sending the Gulf into an era of “spending cuts, taxation, a scarcity of jobs and even strikes,” according to Bloomberg. “There’s a period of austerity necessary for long-term economic stability,” said Ghanem Nuseibeh, founder of London-based consulting firm Cornerstone Global Associates. “The challenge is to balance the rate of change while convincing the population that any pain will be part of a better future.”

Is Saudi Arabia’s threat to unload its holdings of US Treasuries just a lot of hot air? “If we’re talking about [USD 7 bn] it’s one thing, but it’s [USD 700 bn] — what are they going to put their assets into?” Bloomberg quotes Richard Cooper, former undersecretary of state for economic affairs, as saying. There doesn’t appear to be another alternative to the greenback, seeing it is the most used in international trade by a wide margin. The kingdom is threatening to divest if Congress enacts a bill allowing Saudi Arabia to be held responsible in American courts for any role any government official may have had in the 9/11 attacks.

Brexit could be the “equivalent to missing out on one month’s income within four years” the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said in a damning report on the move, the FT (paywall) reports. The UK leaving the EU was likened to a permanent annual tax on people’s incomes, according to Ángel Gurría, the OECD’s secretary general. The report indicates that uncertainty caused by Brexit would quickly lower confidence and hold back spending. It would also shave 3% off GDP by 2020 and hit the rest of the EU economy by 1% compared to its output if the UK remained part of the union.

Egypt is now “more repressive than during the rule of Mubarak,” Roula Khalaf writes for the Financial Times, rehashing yet another piece about “the Jon Stewart of the Middle East,” Bassem Youssef. “We came back to the exact same spot where we started, with the same lies that people laughed at five years before [in the revolution],” says Youssef, adding that despite the repressive powers of the regime, “the textbook of [an adult male Bos taurus] is very slim.”

Egypt has apparently arrested an Egyptian legal consultant working with the family of Giulio Regeni in Egypt, according to Daily Sabah. "Ahmed Abdullah was detained for four days pending investigation into charges against him," Doaa Mustafa, a lawyer with the Cairo-based Egyptian Commission for Rights and Freedoms, told Turkey’s Anadolu Agency on Tuesday. Abdullah is facing charges of plotting to overthrow the regime and spreading false news, Mustafa said. Regeni’s family said they were "distressed" by the recent “wave of arrests of activists, lawyers and journalists in Egypt, some of whom were ‘directly engaging in the search for the truth on the abduction, torture and murder of Giulio’” according to a statement.

“Egypt’s long, bloody road from Arab Spring hope to chaos”is the headline of a CNN timeline of events for Egypt that takes you from the Arab Spring to Tiran and Sanafir. “Five years after Egypt’s Arab Spring, the country is on shaky ground financially, unemployment is rampant and the people are angry. And an ISIS-linked insurgency is growing, the terror attacks becoming more brazen and frequent. Nothing seems sure in Egypt today, except that there’s bound to be more fitful change ahead.”

William McCants and Christopher Meserole’s exhaustive two-part series on terrorism hones in on “an unsettling truth: Jihadists pose a greater threat to France and Belgium than to the rest of Europe. The body counts are larger and the disrupted plots are more numerous… our research reveals that another factor may be at play: French political culture… It turns out that the best predictor of foreign fighter radicalization was … whether a country was Francophone,” the two authors argued last month in Part I. Their most recent installment, published on Monday, looks more closely on the relationship between radicalization, enforced secularism, and national dialogues surrounding bans on Islamic veils. Both parts are relevant to not just France and Belgium but for the region as well. (Read Part I and Part II)

This chart from McCants and Meserole’s second part in their ‘French Connection’ series drives home just how significant a variable among many that being Francophone turned out to be in their regression analysis compared to other variables. (View chart via religional.org)

Known and unknown voids: The non-profit Heritage Innovation Preservation Institute released a video report detailing and explaining the work of the Scan Pyramids project over the past few months. While there’s no voiceover, the video does show some graphical representations of how the team is using muons to scan for interior chambers at the Bent Pyramid. (Watch, running time: 5:38)

Egyptian companies are planning to fill the void left by Turkish exports to Russia, the result of sanctions imposed on Turkey last year, as part of a Trade Ministry plan sanctioned by the president to boost exports to Russia, Al Borsa reports. Egypt’s commercial attaché in Russia is in talks with Russian importers of the products that could be sourced in Egypt as 16 Egyptian companies maneuver to capitalize on Russian sanctions on Turkey. The long-term strategy to boost exports to Turkey will also include targeting commercial centers outside of Moscow, establishing steady logistical routes to ship cargo, and government export subsidies. (Read in Arabic)

House committee approves China agreements, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank membership: The House Economic Committee has approved economic cooperation agreements signed with China over the past year, in addition to approving Egypt’s membership in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The committees sent both treaties to the Legislative Committee to review their legal standing. Al Borsa did not specify which out of the many agreements were approved.

And while we’re on China, the Egyptian Businessmen’s Association met with a Chinese delegation representing an association of textiles manufacturers. The EBA discussed growing Chinese textile investments in Egypt and using them as a gateway to the African trade blocs to expand their African exports. The EBA’s statement on the meeting did not include discussions of the Textile City project in Minya.

The Upper Egypt Electricity Production Company (UEEPC) has contracted Siemens to upgrade the existing gas turbines at the Kuraymat 2 power station, adding 50 MW to their capacity, said UEEPC Chairman Ibrahim El Shahat. The unit upgrade will cost EGP 60 mn and will be completed within a month, he added. The company has allocated EGP 614 mn to upgrades and maintenance in FY 2016-17. Meanwhile, Siemens is looking to bring in 12 turbines for the new capital, Burullus, and Beni Suef power plants in December in line with plans to add 14.4 GW of power to the grid by 2018, said Willi Meixner, CEO of the Power and Gas Division at Siemens. Siemens plans to add 4.4 GW this December, 5.6 GW in May 2017, and 8.8 GW in December 2017, Meixner tells Al Borsa.

Power plant fuel consumption rates have gone up to 115 mn cubic meters daily (mn m3), compared to 107 mn m3 last month due as temperatures have soared, Al Borsa reported. EGAS imports 1.1 bcf/d of natural gas through the two FSRUs at the Ain Al Sokhna port, sources said. (Read in Arabic)

Petrotrade has contacted domestic banks for an EGP 4 bn loan to pay EGPC dues for petroleum products, Al Mal reported. The banks include NBE, Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, Qatar National Bank, CIB, and the Arab African International Bank, sources revealed. Petrotrade has requested the loan be paid over five years. (Read in Arabic)

Some 300 shouna wheat storage systems will be developed as part of phase two of a grain storage project signed with the Supply Ministry in 2014, Blumberg Grain Middle East and Africa CEO David Blumberg tells Al Mal. The second phase of the project will cost USD 120 mn, three times the costs of phase one, with the project hoped to be completed in time for the 2018 harvest season, Blumberg added. Chairman Phillip Blumberg stated that phase one, which will include the development of 93 grain treatment and assembly centers across 20 governorates, is already underway; he hopes phase two will begin shortly. (Read in Arabic)

The turbulence in the FX exchange rate has driven a 25% year-on-year increase price of cooking oil from those last January. Major producers, including Arma Food Industries and Savola, have informed retailers they were raising the price of cooking oil, which in turn have been tacked on to the consumer. According to the Agriculture Ministry, Egypt imports 95% of its supply of cooking oil to meet an annual demand of 1.8 mn tons. The move comes at a time where the government is ramping up efforts to contain food inflation ahead of Ramadan, including opening new retail outlets and topping up food subsidies. (Read in Arabic)

The new LG cooling systems factory will be completed in 2017, said LG Electronics President for the Middle East and North Africa Kevin Cha. The company is investing in research and development for new products that consume less energy and have lower carbon emissions, he added. (Read in Arabic)

The Tourism Ministry said it commissioned Air Leisure to fly three trips a day from Saudi destinations to Sharm El Sheikh and Hurghada. Al Shorouk said the three-month agreement is for 260 seats per flight as part of a package to spend nine nights in Egypt. Tourism Minister Yehia Rashed said a website for booking the flights will begin accepting reservations starting Ramadan. (Read in Arabic)

Operations at General Motors’ Egyptian assembly factories have not been interrupted, a company spokesperson said. Four US-based plants have announced halting production as their supply chains were disrupted by the earthquake that hit Japan, affecting the delivery some parts. GM’s Egypt spokesperson told Al Mal the plant uses a 45% local component for passenger cars and close to 65% for trucks.

The EGX signed an agreement with the Bahrain Bourse (BHB) to facilitate dual listings and to support BHB’s technological infrastructure. The agreement aims to increase fund flow between Egypt and Bahrain and create new investment opportunities. (Read in Arabic)

Please read the following news aloud in your very best bored monotone: The CBE is planning a package of measures including legislative amendments to push forward with the Council of Arab Central Banks’ commitment to improve financial inclusion, according to a CBE statement. The council wants to improve peer-to-peer learning among regional and international financial regulators and policymakers to design “relevant financial inclusion policies.” Among the measures in the pipeline: an Arab Day of Financial Inclusion to create awareness. (Read)

Foreign investors in Nile Cotton Ginning Company are expected to begin arbitration proceedings against the Egyptian government over the dispute with the Holding Company for Construction and Development (HCCD), Al Borsa reports. The shareholders have hired a UAE-based financial advisor to assess the value of their shares ahead of the arbitration. At the heart of the dispute lies the foreign shareholders’ desire to enforce a mandatory tender offer on their 30% stake by the HCCD, which has threatened to walk out over confusion of ownership since the spinoff of the Public Sector Ministry from the Investment Ministry. (Read in Arabic)

Russian defense manufacturer Concern Radio-Electronic Technologies is delivering 28 President-S onboard defense systems to the Egyptian Air Force by June. Egypt has also expressed interest in placing an order for 30 more defense systems in May, said the company’s director general, Nikolai Kolesov. The electronic systems include radar and laser-lock detectors and chaff ejectors. Egypt plans to deploy on the Alligator attack helicopters ordered from Russia, to equip the navy’s two Mistral-class helicopter carriers. (Read)

Prime Minister Sherif Ismail assured the Egyptian Trade Unions Federation (ETUF) that the Civil Service Act will not negatively impact state workers but will advance the prospects of talented bureaucrats, he said at a meeting with the federation’s board. This may be the first charm offensive directed at state bureaucrats since introducing the amended Civil Service Act in the House. Ismail also assured the ETUF that the restructuring of public sector businesses does not mean privatization is coming. Ismail was joined by the manpower minister, who stated that the cabinet will review the Labor Unions Act ahead of its introduction to the House but did not specify the features of the legislation. (Read in Arabic)

The “Egypt is not for sale” coalition, which is made up of a number of political factions opposed to the return of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia, vowed to file a complaint against Interior Minister Magdy Abdel Ghaffar with the Prosecutor General for violations against protesters on Sinai Liberation Day, Al Mal reports. The coalition also declared its support for the complaint filed by the Journalist Syndicate for alleged abuses by the Interior Ministry on Monday. The complaint may not go far, as the Prosecutor General’s Office launched criminal proceedings against 86 protesters, seven of them juveniles, arrested in Dokki on Monday on charges of illegal protests, AMAY reports.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi inaugurated yesterday the new Interior Ministry headquarters in New Cairo four months after MOI began moving functions to the new complex from Lazoghly in Downtown, Ahram Online reports. The newspaper also suggest the president may have given Interior Minister Magdy Abdel-Ghaffar a bit of unsolicited advice, saying, “The current number of conscripts – 1,000 – being used to secure the building costs the state a huge amount of money. It would cost the state EGP 12 mn per year. We’re calculating everything. Please revise the plan to reduce the number of conscripts." In remarks at the event, El Sisi also warned against attempts to destabilize the nation, Al-Ahram reports.

Saudi businessman Hassan Ali Ahmed Al Send who was kidnapped on Tuesday was taken hostage for ransom by criminals, and he had no gripe or quarrel with any of Egypt’s authorities, according to a statement by El Send’s sons. Egypt’s Interior Ministry and the Saudi embassy are coordinating efforts to find El Send and the kidnappers, RT Arabic reports.

12-16 Egyptians were killed in the Libyan town of Beni Waleed having been caught in an apparent shootout with human traffickers there, read a statement from the Egyptian Foreign Ministry. The ministry is coordinating with local authorities to identify the exact number and identities of the deceased Egyptians, according to the statement, which ran on Al Masry Al Youm. Libyan sources speaking with Al Mal say the victims were illegal migrants. Libya’s ambassador to Egypt Mohamed Saleh announced that the number of victims may have been closer to 30 in a call in to Al Hayat Al Youm, but could not confirm the details. He stated that the shootout was over the transportation fare, AMAY reports.