On a slow news day, go learn from Nestlé’s Maggie noodle meltdown in India

Only because it’s expected of us, we’ll be keeping an eye out for details of the 11 agreements signed yesterday between Egypt and Bahrain on day one of Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa’s two-day visit. (More in Diplomacy + Trade, below.) (Frankly, we want to like Bahrain, we really do. But we’re still having a difficult time erasing the memories of that close-up shot of a smirking sheikh’s mouth in the 2010-11 vintage Business Friendly Bahrain television ad. You know the one —it seemed to air every five minutes on CNN, the mouth slowly moving from sneer to a rictus smirk as the “Business Friendly” slogan appeared. It still gives us the creeps. We’d link to the ad, but the Bahrainis have done a better job scrubbing it from the internet than we have scrubbing its afterimage from our retinas.)

Donald Trump has declared himself the “presumptive nominee” after winning all five of last night’s primaries in the race for the Republican party’s nomination. Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, took four northeastern states to Bernie Sanders’ one, suggesting we could be looking at a fall contest between the Democrats’ least-inspiring candidate and the Republicans’ most awful. The New York Times’ overview is here.

Apple snapped a 13-year streak of quarter-on-quarter revenue growth yesterday as it reported a 13% dip in second-quarter revenues to USD 50.6 bn, according to the company’s earnings release. The New York Times attributed the dip to “Apple’s already immense size, weakness in key global markets like China and the lack of another hot product to pry open the wallets of customers. Business Insider has more, including charts and a live blog of Apple’s earnings call, or check the Financial Times (paywall). Want to see how your quarterly earnings call stacks up against Apple’s? Tap here to listen for yourselves (run time: 60:17).

The Central Bank of Egypt is poised to increase rates by up to 100 basis points on Thursday, some analysts say; Reuters’ standard poll of analysts on the subject has yet to appear, so far as we can tell. The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee last raised rates on 17 March 2016, when it upped the overnight deposit rate 150 basis points to 10.75% and the overnight lending rate to 11.75%.

Next weekend is a four-day break for Coptic Easter (Sunday), Sham El Nessim (Monday), and Labour Day (also Sunday), all rolled into one.

As for conferences:

• Monday-Tuesday: The two-day Middle East Investment Summit 2016 is kicking off at the Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.
• Wednesday-Saturday: The Cairo Food Africa Exhibition is taking place 4-7 May at the Cairo International Convention and Exhibition Center.
• Saturday-Sunday: The Techne Summitis happening at Bibliotheca Alexandrina. You can register here.

The CBE sold USD 118.7 mn in yesterday’s FX auction at the regular rate of EGP 8.78 per USD 1, Reuters reported. The newswire added that the EGP strengthened on the black market to EGP 10.40-10.50 per USD 1, down from the rates of around EGP 11.50 recorded last week, with Al Mal pinning the rate at EGP 10.40. Al Shorouk found the EGP trending lower, saying the rate had fallen to EGP 10.65 per USD 1, the same rate quoted by Al Borsa. Enterprise sold USD at rate of EGP 10.35 yesterday afternoon, but found (1) that few exchange offices are interested in transactions unless they know you personally and you will transact offsite (literally on the side of the road, in our case) and (2) that, in general, exchange offices are reluctant buyers and not sellers, based on our own poll yesterday.

An ‘official’ parallel rate? We jest, but still: The importers division of the Cairo Chamber of Commerce is considering unifying the rate at which its members buy USD from the parallel market. The move aims to take the wind out of the sails of speculators. Al Mal says this is the second collective action by the importers, which also attempted to organise a collective boycott of the parallel market for a week.

Picking up where we left off last week, a bill that would govern the deregulation of the gas market is currently being discussed at the State Council ahead of presenting it to the House of Representatives, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla told Amwal Al Ghad. The law is meant to ensure availability of natural gas to the public and private sectors, he adds, highlighting its importance in making Egypt a regional energy hub.

Has Germany’s fourth-largest tour operator banned flights to Egypt? FTI chief executive Ali Okda claims the company has scrubbed tours to Egypt because of “the arrogance of Minister Yehia Rashed, who refused to listen to the requests of the trip organizers.’ Egypt Independent picked the story up from the mothership, Al Masry Al Youm, and says nothing about the underlying causes of the alleged dispute, nor does it offer the tourism ministry’s side of the story in what reads to us as a piece planted by the tour operator.

Medsofts, Archer Daniels Midland news is being recycled: The U.S. commodity giant’s venture into Egypt and the wider region with Tarek Tawfik’s Medsofts is back in the headlines as the local press recycles news we reported back in December. See coverage by Al Borsa or the new single-page placeholder website for ADM Medsofts.

Irish singer / songwriter / author Bob Geldof’s private equity fund 8 Miles(no relation to the Eminem biopic) plans to acquire more stakes in African firms before the end of the year, Reuters reports, including one more in Egypt. The rock star’s portfolio includes Egypt’s Eagles Chemicals Group. “We are going to do another one in Egypt. In Ethiopia too, we are looking at a third. In Uganda as well, and Ghana because it is something we really want,” Geldof told Reuters in an interview.

Journos lodge complaint against Interior Ministry in the aftermath of the 25 April protests: The Journalists’ Syndicate filed a report with the Prosecutor General accusing the Interior Ministry and the minister himself of violating the rights of reporters, according to Al Mal, after security forces’ broke into its headquarters on 25 April. Security forces were reportedly still at the syndicate’s headquarters yesterday, according to Al Mal, while around 100 journalists staged a protest in central Cairo against the arrest of other reporters covering Monday’s demonstrations, Reuters reports. “Security forces arrested at least 33 reporters trying to cover small anti-government protests in Cairo on Monday that were dispersed with tear gas, according to the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists.” Meanwhile, an Egyptian coalition of rights groups said Tuesday that police arrested almost 250 people in total during the protests, the AP reports, with Amnesty International condemning the arrests and calling them a “ruthlessly efficient” bid to block peaceful protest.

A Saudi businessman by the name of Hassan Ali Ahmed Al Send has reportedly been kidnapped by unidentified assailants off the Cairo-Ismailia Desert Road, Al Masry Al Youm reports. The newspaper says Al Send’s car was found destroyed 76 km down the road in the direction of Suez from his home in New Cairo. The police investigation has reportedly found that Al Send is a partner in Al Shams Agro Group and that Al Send’s Egyptian partner is a retired general whose son had allegedly been kidnapped three years ago. The family has not been contacted for a ransom. We believe this is Al Shams Agro Group’s website, but have no further background on Al Send and this exceptionally unusual case, which is sufficiently unusual in Egypt that it is getting wide play in the press, including regional outlets.

Continuing with the crime beat this morning: The Body of an Egyptian national has reportedly been found in burning car in London: The Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that the consular affairs section of the Egyptian embassy in London is following “around the clock" the reported killing of an Egyptian citizen in the UK, Ahram Online reports. The body of 21-year-old Egyptian Sherif Adel Habib was found inside a car that was set ablaze in a garage in South Hall. The UK metropolitan police told state-run MENA agency they were investigating the "deadly fire" and the circumstances behind it. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has called on the British authorities to “give due diligence to and intensify investigation into this mysterious incident in order to establish its causes, identify the perpetrators and bring them to justice,” according to an Ittihadiya statement. The presidency’s statement gave the name of the reported victim as “Adel Habib Michael, whose body was found burnt in a London suburb.”

And speaking of crime on a mass scale: FIFA threatens to suspend football activities in Egypt: Football’s international governing body, FIFA, has sent the Egyptian Football Association (EFA) a letter threatening to suspend football activities in Egypt if a court ruling disbanding the EFA is implemented, Al-Ahram’s breaking news website reports. FIFA’s actions, if implemented, would mean that the Egyptian national team and domestic clubs would be barred from participating in international tournaments. FIFA considers the court ruling an interference in football affairs, it says (because as Qatar has proven, football is above the law, and FIFA a paragon of moral probity).

A little bit of good news this morning: Six months after the IMF and a host of other ratings agencies warned that emerging markets were on the brink of mass defaults on corporate debt, the “reverse is taking place,” Bloomberg writes. “Rates of non-payment on emerging-market high-yield bonds have fallen every month this year to a four-month low of 3 percent in March,” according to data compiled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “The currency mismatch warning has turned out to be the dog that didn’t bite,” said Jan Dehn, London-based head of research at Ashmore.

Websites are becoming the “major” source of revenue for Egyptian newspapers, journalists tell Al-Monitor’s Ahmed Fouad, prompting him question if print journalism is on the wane in Egypt. “The costs associated with printing the newspaper was one of the reasons for the [domestic media’s] financial crisis. As a result of poor circulation numbers… the paper version adds to losses incurred by the company,” an Al Shorouk journalist says. The idea is debatable and current regulations complicate it further; the Journalists Syndicate disallows membership to journalists who work for publications that do not have printed editions.

Bangladesh central bank heist involved Egyptian IP address, SWIFT system potentially compromised: The attackers who stole USD 81 mn from the Bangladesh central bank probably hacked into software from the SWIFT financial platform, Reuters reports, citing security researchers at British defense contractor BAE Systems. As we reported before, the attackers are believed to have used the IP address of a server in Egypt to monitor the use of the SWIFT system by Bangladesh Bank staff. SWIFT confirmed the attack was conducted using a form of malware designed to hide the hacker’s tracks by changing information on a SWIFT database at Bangladesh Bank that tracks information about transfer requests. The story is also front page news in the digital edition of the Financial Times today. Let’s hope the Central Bank of Egypt has better cyber protection.

The protests on 25 April made rounds in international press, but The Intercept’s Robert Mackey has focused on comparing the use of social media now to back in 2011. “Facebook is now so closely monitored by the security forces [it] prompted one leading activist to offer an online tutorial in how to use a new tool, the encrypted messaging app Signal, to help protesters find each other on the city’s streets, and stay one step ahead of the authorities,” wrote Mackey. “The heavy police presence wherever protests were planned seemed to indicate that the authorities can no longer be caught off guard by events organized on public social networks.” Mackey is one of the best known “open source” journalists in the U.S., piecing together news coverage from social media sources. He plied his trade at the New York Times throughout Egypt’s recent turmoil before moving to the Intercept.

Egypt’s Security Agents Smother Streets of Cairo to Prevent Protestsis the headline of a NYT article that is about exactly that and not much else. The underwhelming protests yesterday over President Abdel Fattah El Sisi handing sovereignty of the Sanafir and Tiran islands to Saudi Arabia were nipped in the bud almost before they even happened, writes Kareem Fahim. “But the stifling security also felt like the fretful reaction of a leader unexpectedly confronting skepticism and negative scrutiny.”

Foreign Affairs is the latest to give us their opinion on Tiran and Sanafir. Michael Wahid Hanna writes that the ownership of the islands have been disputed for decades, giving us the historic background on Saudi’s “not unreasonable or unfounded” claims to the islands and what the demarcation means for Israel. “Although Egypt’s transfer of Tiran and Sanafir, in substantive legal terms, is not a major concession, the unexpected move has had major ramifications for domestic and regional politics and has exposed underlying realities in both spheres.”

“It’s like watching a slow-moving train wreck,” said Richard Tutwiler, a water expert at the American University in Cairo about Egypt’s water crisis. “Everyone knows that population growth is accelerating, and then you have that dam, which could be a problem if it’s filled up too fast," he told AP. Many have touted a “relatively cheap” plough used by some farmers that allows them to double yields and to use less water as one of the solutions to the problem. Mazen Mostafa, an irrigation engineer, thinks the focus needs to be on converting Egypt’s aging canals into sprinkling networks to expand green areas along the Nile.

Nestle’s Maggi noodle crisis in India: “Nestle spent three decades building a beloved noodle brand in India. Then the world’s biggest food and beverage company stumbled into a public relations debacle that cost it a half a bn USD. A cautionary tale of mangled crisis management on an epic scale. (Read, via Fortune )

Warning: Egyptians dancing, viewer discretion is advised: This video of Egyptians dancing in the wild, scored to Bruno Mars’ Uptown Funk, is as exploitative as it is entertaining. (Watch, running time: 46 seconds, via The Glocal)

The UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) has urged the Egyptian government to consider every possible scenario regarding Giulio Regeni’s murder, including the possibility that security officials are involved, in response to a submitted petition. “The FCO responded to a petition calling for the UK government to ensure that a full investigation into the death of Regeni is carried out. The petition passed the minimum number of signatures required for the government to respond,” Daily News Egypt said. “We are aware of allegations that the Egyptian security forces were responsible for the murder of Mr Regeni. These are unproven but we urge the Egyptian authorities to consider every possible scenario as they investigate,” the statement noted.

British companies are key to unlocking Egypt’s energy potential said Jason Ivory, Director of UK Trade and Investment. “BG and BP are two of Egypt’s most important long-term, committed investors. They have together invested almost [USD 40 bn,” Ivory added at the Mediterranean Offshore Conference and Exhibition.

An Egyptian delegation headed by International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr is set to visit the UAE to discuss the details of the USD 4 bn support package, sources told Al Borsa The discussion will include the tenor and interest rate of the USD 2 bn deposit at the CBE, as well as potential development projects, the source added.

Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa arrived yesterday to begin a two-day visit to Cairo for meetings with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to bolster ties, Ahram Online reports. Egypt and Bahrain signed 11 MoUs in defense, vocational training, scientific research, fertilisers, healthcare, and electricity yesterday during the the ninth round of the Egypt-Bahrain Business Council, according to Ahram Online. Bahraini investments in Egypt have hit USD 1.7 bn, head of the Bahrain Chamber of Commerce and Industry Khaled El Moayed told Al Borsa. During the council, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said the countries are boosting intelligence cooperation to combat terrorism, while urging international collaboration to confront the phenomenon, according to Ahram Online.

The king’s visit to Egypt at this time is part of a wider move by the GCC to strengthen and grow ties with Egypt, following in the steps of the Saudi Arabian king who was here earlier this month, said Bahrain’s foreign minister Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa in an interview with Al Ahram. This strengthening of ties comes at a time where Egypt’s stabilizing role in the region is needed the most and underscores the faith GCC leaders have placed in Egypt’s leadership.

Bahrain’s Midal Cables signed a USD 30 mn agreement with the Electricity Ministry to build an electric cables factory in Egypt, the company said yesterday, according to Al Borsa. The 30,000 sqm factory will be built in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, with Midal planning to sign an agreement with SCZone today when the Bahraini business delegations visits the zone, said Midal’s chairman Khalid Rashid Al Zayani.

The Suez Canal’s importance to global trade has not been diminished by the decline in international trade, said a number of logistics and trade experts speaking to Al Masry Al Youm, who praised Egypt’s decision to lower transit fees 30% from March to June. Other causeways that might compete with the Suez Canal are only a seasonal fad doomed to end once oil prices pick back up again, said an analyst with PricewaterhouseCoopers. The Suez Canal remains the most convenient geographic causeway, said Julian Smith, PwC’s Global Transport and Logistics industry leader.

General Electric (GE) is planning on injecting USD 340 mn in investments in Egypt this year, USD 200 mn of which “will be directed to establish a multi-modal manufacturing and training facility in Suez.” GE’s North East Africa CEO Ayman Khattab said the company is looking to expand business in the fields of oil exploration and electricity production, distribution, and delivery as well as health and transport. Khattab added that GE is not currently restricted by the USD shortage in Egypt as it makes its own products abroad and has “the ability to obtain grace periods for repayment,” but may face delays in repatriating profits. (Read)

The ministries of electricity and oil have apparently agreed to cooperate on developing Egypt’s geothermal energy potential, said Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker at a meeting with Oil Minister Tarek El Molla and President Abdel Fattah El Sisi. Under the agreement, both ministries will collaborate on developing a framework for the geothermal power sector and conduct feasibility studies on the best sites. He added that a site has been selected to be a pilot project, but did not specify where it is, Al Ahram reports. Last year, state-owned Ganope announced it was looking to develop geothermal energy in Egypt.

Oil and gas producer Energean announced it “completed a new 2D seismic survey over the West Baliana interior rift basin in the Northern region of the West Komombo-Block 3 concession area, onshore Egypt.” The survey lasted three months and was conducted by Africa Geophysical Services ahead of drilling two exploration wells planned in 2016. Preliminary processing results and interpretation showed “well pronounced prospective structure developments within the well identified interior rift system at the northern part of the concession.” (Read)

The Supply Ministry signed six agreements yesterday with four international retailers worth a combined investment value of EGP 5 bn, Amwal Al Ghad reported. The companies include Saudi’s Panda, which purchased three land plots in Al Obour, Nasr City, and Qaliubiya. The ministry has also signed agreements to build 16 retail outlet chains and logistics zones in several governorates, said Supply Minister Khaled Hanafy. (Read in Arabic)

The Supply Ministry has purchased 100k tons of domestically harvested wheat since the beginning of this harvest season, said Mamdouh Abdel Fattah, deputy head of the General Authority for Supply Commodities, Al Mal reports. Abdel Fattah believes a much greater quantity of this year’s harvest will be preserved thanks to the Blumberg ME shounas and silos that have recently come online. (Read in Arabic)

The Health Ministry has completed its first public tender for baby formula, replacing the tasking-by-direct-order system in place before, Al Masry Al Youm reported. The ministry is set to buy one pack at EGP 26, including transportation, storage, and distribution costs, Health Minister Ahmed Rady said, but a unit will be sold at EGP 3.50 to the consumer. The specifications on the baby formula have also been amended to match European standards, he said, with one extra condition was added, which includes the baby formula being sold in its country of origin. (Read in Arabic)

The Al Asreya Conte Abou El Kheir Company is planning an USD 100 mn expansion at its factory in Borg El Arab, as well as adding manufacturing medical equipment to its portfolio, company Chairman Ibrahim Abou El Kheir told Al Mal. The company owns a dialysis solution factory over an area of 4,000 sqm and is negotiating to sell a stake to Saudi investors. (Read in Arabic)

The Pharmacists Syndicate has been tasked with compiling a list of medications overdue for a price increase that currently range between EGP 1-3, said the syndicate’s head Mohy Obeid. Since last week, the syndicate had been providing the cabinet with lists of treatments that will need to see a price increase, recommending that those under EGP 30 see a 20% price increase. This latest tally could affect the prices of 2,170 items, Al Borsa reports. (Read in Arabic)

Real estate developers Sama Group are investing EGP 5.5 bn in three new real estate projects, Chairman Hassan Rateb told Al Mal. The group is looking to increase its presence on a governorate level by launching the EGP 500 mn Sama Ismailia project, he added, noting the project is pending approval by authorities. The other two projects are both compounds set for New Cairo and the Cairo-Alexandria Desert Road with an investment value exceeding EGP 5 bn, he added. The group expects to complete negotiations for the land to build the projects on within two months, he added. (Read in Arabic)

The Misr Iran Development Bank (MIDB) has recently exited its 6% stake in the Arab Dairy Products Company, Managing Director Amr Tantawy told Amwal Al Ghad. (Read in Arabic)

The Czech Republic Export-Import Bank is considering a credit facility to the National Bank of Egypt, the Export Development Bank of Egypt, and the Suez Canal Bank, said an official from the Export-Import Bank, who didn’t mention the size of the facility. The bank will likely require guarantees by the government to grant the facility. Czech exporters are looking for guarantees to guard against FX problems before committing to Egypt, the official added. The Czech Republic Export-Import Bank had signed an agreement with the General Authority for Investment and Free zones (GAFI) to promote Egyptian investments in the Czech Republic, GAFI’s head of policy tells Al Borsa. (Read in Arabic)

The joint legislative agenda for the cabinet and the House of Representatives will prioritize the value-added tax legislation, the amended Civil Service Act, the Police Act, and expanding the scope of the anti-corruption act to include elected officials and heads of independent government bodies, said Legal Affairs Minister Magdi Al Agaty. The next set of priorities will include the Children’s Healthcare Act, the Weapons and Ammunitions Act, and the Radio and Television Act, said Agaty. And while we’re on the police, the Council of State is blaming the stalled passing of the amendments of the Police Act on the parliament, AMAY reports. These amendments, which were called for by the president during the Mattariya hospital scandal, were designed to curb the police’s unchecked abuses.

Parliament will push the government to increase budget allocation for the export subsidy fund to EGP 10 bn, up from its current budget allocation of EGP 2.7 bn, said Mohamed El Sewedy who heads the House Industry Committee and the Federation of Egyptian Industries. Also on the committee’s agenda was a push to amend certain objectionable articles of the Mines and Quarries Act, though El Sewedy did not specify which articles the committee will seek to amend. Speaking at the Egyptian-Bahraini Business Forum, El Sewedy added that the FEI was continuing to lobby the government to reduce gas prices to factories to USD 4.5 per mbtu, from its current USD 7 per mbtu. (Read in Arabic)

Egypt’s budget deficit has reached 9% of GDP in 9M2015-16, surpassing a projected budget deficit of 8.9% of GDP for the full year, Finance Ministry sources tell Al Borsa. The sources attribute the growth in the deficit to increased expenditures on salaries that have grown, debt service, and subsidies, in addition to the absence of a settlement between the EGPC and the Finance Ministry. Finance Minister Amr El Garhy had anticipated that the deficit would grow to 11.5% of GDP by FY2015-16. (Read in Arabic)

The cabinet’s economic group has decided to increase food subsidies to the supply smart card program by EGP 2.4 bn and top up individual smart cards 20% by June. Prime Minister Sherif Ismail instructed the group to use these added funds to increase the number of dependents on the supply-card program, according to a cabinet statement. The move is part of a concerted effort by the government to keep costs of food supplies down before Ramadan, including expanding subsidy programs and developing 16 new retail outlets at a cost of EGP 5.3 bn. (Read in Arabic)

The Swiss Embassy in Cairo congratulated Egyptian inventors who participated in the 44th International Exhibition of Inventions in Geneva. The embassy said Egyptian inventors were awarded 10 medals for projects including “a system for generating electricity from trains, a natural soap 95% made from rice straw, and a solar electric generator that is up to 90% more efficient than solar panels.” The Grand Prix went to an exhibitor from The Hong Kong Baptist University for his process to reinforce glass surfaces by applying a thin layer of sapphire to the screen which needs to be protected. There were no Egyptians in the official list of prizes.