Parliament endorses Ismail govt’s policy agenda; EGP plunges to new low

Arriving in town today: Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, who will meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to discuss “bilateral ties and regional conflicts,” Al Masry Al Youm reports.

Sheikh Mohammed arrives just a day after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was in town for talks with El Sisi (see Diplomacy + Foreign Trade, after Speed Round, below).

CIT Minister Yasser Al Qady will brief his cabinet colleagues today on his plan to tender 4G licenses. If the cabinet approves the plan, we should see 4G licenses tendered within one month, Al Qady said yesterday, according to Al Shorouk. The National Telecommunications Regulatory Authority will hold a meeting following the approval with Al Qady to lay out the terms and conditions for tendering of the 4G licenses and their prices. Sources at Telecom Egypt have stated that the company would push for a 4G license, which will pave the way for it to become the fourth mobile phone carrier, as has been discussed for more than a few years now.

Oh, and Al Qady would like you to know that never, ever would anyone in Egypt eavesdrop on your calls.

U.S. currency will get new designs, adding women to the USD 5, 10 and 20 bills, the New York Times reports. The new designs aren’t out yet, but the U.S. Treasury website has interesting biographical background on (and photos of) the women who are joining two U.S. presidents and one “founding father” on the world’s most popular form of folding money.

Monday, 25 April is a national holiday for Sinai Liberation day (that’s this coming Monday). The weekend after is a four-day break for Coptic Easter, Sham El Nessim and Labour Day, all rolled into one. (Oh, and for those of you keeping track at home: Ramadan Is Coming. We’re about 47 days away from the start of the holy month.)

As for protests scheduled for 25 April: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will in no way accept a repetition of the clashes that ensued during last Friday’s protests over the return of two Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia, according to sources speaking to Al Shorouk. Former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabahi has positioned himself as a leader in the “Egypt is not for sale” movement, calling for protests on Sinai Liberation Day.

The House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly in favor on Wednesday of backing Prime Minister Sherif Ismail’s policy agenda, Ahram Online reports, clearing the way for the receipt of some USD 1 bn in World Bank budget support. Some 433 MPs voted in favour while 38 voted against and five abstained, MP Haitham El-Hariri said on his official twitter account. But Egypt is still in “state of danger,” Ismail said in a 10-minute speech ahead of the vote, and “citizens should join forces to stand up to the challenges.” He also said that his government intends to reform the country’s subsidy policy to make sure “subsidies go to those who deserve them only.” As for the 27 March report prepared by a special committee on his government’s policy statement Ismail said the cabinet would take the recommendations listed as “obligations.” And while the government aims to achieve an annual economic growth rate of 5.2%, it will not let the poor suffer. “We will present our strategy for sustainable development in Egypt until the year 2030 to be discussed and ratified by parliament.” He also said laws stipulated by the constitution regulating media and the press and the formation of the national election commission will be submitted to parliament soon, he added.Allcabinet ministers are set to present their plans of action to parliament, he said, adding that "a periodical report will be submitted to parliament every six months to show the progress of implementation of all national projects." You can read our detailed coverage of the government plan here.

Egypt is almost “back to square one” after euphoria following the biggest EGP devaluation in 13 years faded away, longtime business and finance writer Ahmed Namatalla writes for Bloomberg. A survey showed that FX bureaus are selling USD at a 22% premium to the official rate. Holders of USD will only “give them up if they feel like there’s enough of a reward or if they expect their value to decline. Neither is the case right now,” a strategist at Global Evolution Fonds told Namatalla. Egyptian officials appear hesitant to relinquish the control over the exchange rate as devaluations can be inflationary. However, HSBC’s Simon Williams hints that a free-float regime is the way to stabilise the market; “the market is looking for the value of the pound to be set by the aggregate of supply and demand, not by the central bank … If that isn’t taking place, then it’s no surprise markets are disappointed.”

…In an increasingly less-rare policy statement, Central Bank Governor Tarek Amer says he has no intention of devaluing the EGP further, according to remarks carried by state news agency MENA and picked up by Al Masry Al Youm. Amer also denied there are any agreements with “foreign entities” over what the exchange rate should be, saying the large premium in the parallel market is caused by speculation.

… Amer’s comments had no effect on the market as the exchange rate continued to spiral in the parallel market. Al Mal says the parallel market market rate yesterday was EGP 11.10 per USD 1, Al Borsa puts it at EGP 11.15, and Al Watan quotes a rate of EGP 11.75. Reuters’ survey of the market has the rate even weaker at EGP 11.35 per USD 1 and blames the drop on USD hoarding. “Traders at exchange bureaus are holding on to their USD as the price could go sharply higher the next day,” one forex trader told the newswire, with Naeem’s Allen Sandeep blaming this behaviour on an expectation that there will be another devaluation, “it’s a chicken and egg situation.”!

In response to what it sees as hoarding by FX traders, the CBE intensified its crackdown on money changers, revoking the licenses of nine dealers on Wednesday, Al Mal reports. It has been proven that these bureaus are responsible for repeated violations of CBE regulations on the exchange rate, said Deputy CBE governor Gamal Negm. By law, the CBE has the right to revoke licenses of bureaus who do not comply with regulations and is working on amendments to the CBE Act that would allow it to have prosecutors bring criminal charges against individuals found manipulating the market

The Court of Appeals has ruled in favor of CIB in its dispute with minority shareholders of CI Capital, a case whose resolution was a condition set by the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority for its approval of the sale of CI Capital to Beltone. The Economic Court had ordered CIB (which owns 99.98% of CI Capital) to issue a mandatory tender offer to minority shareholders for outstanding shares, a decision overturned by the Court of Appeals, El Watan reports. The decision has cleared a hurdle for Beltone’s acquisition of CI Capital, with the other remaining obstacle being OTMT addressing alleged regulatory violations dating to its 2012 demerger.

Beltone Financial Holding is considering legal action against the EGX as the bourse cancelled trades on its stock for the 16th time, sources told Al Mal. Beltone shareholders have reportedly asked the company to take action against the stock market, sources say. The capital markets law allows the bourse to cancel trades if it believes they are aimed at manipulating the market, an issue a source said might have caused the bourse’s move.

Global warming killing off the Suez Canal? China will encourage ships flying its flag to ditch the Suez Canal and take take the Northwest Passage via the Arctic Ocean, a route opened up by global warming, to cut travel times between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, a state-run newspaper said according to Reuters and the BBC’s Arabic service. Using the Arctic route would cut the distance of the journey to Hamburg from Shanghai by 2,800 nautical miles, compared to passing through the Suez Canal. “Once this route is commonly used, it will directly change global maritime transport and have a profound influence on international trade, the world economy, capital flow and resource exploitation,” a Chinese official says.

The government is reportedly exploring the possibility of granting Saudi Arabian citizens ownership rights in Sinai, which would amount to a violation of the Sinai Development Act, government sources tell Al Mal. The move is apparently coinciding with numerous plans in the works to attract Saudi investments in Sinai, including tendering 8 mn sqm in around Sharm El Sheikh, according to a source who is part of a committee to draw up potential investments in the peninsula. Under the Sinai Development Act, foreigners are restricted to usufruct possession of land and not ownership. As we noted this week, the move was part of a series of recommendations by the Tourism Committee of the Egyptian Businessmen’s Association to resurrect the tourism industry.

The Prosecutor General’s Office ordered yesterday the detention of a policeman for four days pending an investigation into the murder of a street vendor on Tuesday over a cup of tea, Ahram Online reports. The decision follows a meeting between President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Interior Minister Magdy Abdel Ghaffar and senior police commanders at which the president “stressed the importance of holding accountable those responsible for acts of wrongdoing … taking into consideration that the powers vested in [the police] are meant to enable them to save the lives, properties and interests of citizens in order to enforce security in the country. El Sisi spoke with the security officials once again about the need to draft amendments to the Police Act “to ensure the respect of human rights, transparency and integrity, while enforcing the law, as well as enhancing security and civil services,” according to an Ittihadiya statement.

Meanwhile… A shootout took place between a policeman and judge in Al Matariyya over a hearing involving the policeman’s brother, Al Youm 7 reports. The officer and his relatives attacked the judge, opening fire at his car, spurring the judge to fire back in self-defense. Two people were injured.

From an alternate dimension: Two Italian members of parliament reportedly ruled out the Egyptian government’s involvement in the murder of the Italian student Giulio Regeni during an interview with the honorary president of the Euro-Mediterranean Parliament Mohammed Aboul Enein (yes, that Mohammed Aboul Enein) that aired on Sada El Balad (run time: 36:53) satellite channel on Monday, according to SIS. Al Mal names one of the politicians as Lucio Barani. Regeni’s murderers are “enemies of the Egyptian and Italian peoples” as well as Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, they said. “They accused dissident organizations funded by international economic powers for supporting the perpetrators in order to take Italy’s place in economic relations with Egypt,” and added that they understood Egypt’s refusal to hand over phone records to the Italian government.

Of course, since it’s Sada El Balad, they were perhaps too busy playing Apache: Air Assault to do their homework on Mr. Barani, who was perhaps not the best choice to host for an interview. Barani was suspended from the Italian Senate last October for making an obscene gesture on the Senate floor to a female MP as she was speaking, and has been described as a “pig” by his colleagues. The Italian press has already picked up the Sada El Balad interview.

To whoever decided to host Barani: It was the wrong decision. You do not know what you are doing. Stop.

Global sovereign wealth fund assets inch up to USD 6.51 tn… Assets at SWFs stood at USD 6.5 tn as at 31 March 2016, more than double the comparable figure for 2009, but only USD 200 bn more than a year ago, representing a yearly growth rate of only 3%, said a report by London-based research provider Preqin on Tuesday. The slow growth rate, which significantly lower than rates of 16-17 % reported in previous years, was attributed to falling commodity prices, particularly oil, with non-commodity funds adding USD 290 bn, while SWFs reliant on windfall revenues from oil and gas lost USD 10 bn. “Given that many sovereign wealth funds are established by oil-producing nations, it is perhaps unsurprising that the rate of increase in assets has slowed,” the researcher said. Many oil producing countries have indeed turned to their SWFs to cope with the current oil price slump, with Norway announcing to withdraw USD 570 mn from its USD 810 bn GPFG, the world’s largest SWF. Russia burned up 44% of its reserve fund last year, and Kazakhstan’s central bank plans to drain USD 28.8 bn from its USD 64.2 bn national fund. As for the GCC states, Saudi Arabia is selling its assets to create another USD 2 tn wealth fund that’s not reliant on oil; along with Qatar, KSA has been selling stakes to European companies. Fitch is also expecting that Abu Dhabi Investment Authority would divert more than USD 20 bn this year to shore-up the emirate’s budget

Things aren’t looking good for hedge funds: After over USD 15 bn was pulled out by investors balking at high fees charged in the industry, hedge funds are looking at the worst quarter in seven years, the Financial Times (paywall) writes. Sovereign wealth funds have been withdrawing bns from asset managers the world over to support their faltering oil-dependent economies and New York and California pension schemes have increasingly pulled away. On the flipside, some pension schemes (like Finland and the Illinois State Universities Retirement System) are boosting their exposure, causing some to caution against moving away from hedged strategies. “More up-and-down markets with a lot of dispersion should be a really good environment for hedge funds,” said Judy Posnikoff, a founding partner of Pacific Alternative Asset Management Company.

Argentina’s whopping USD 16.5 bn bond sale on Tuesday opened up the “floodgates” for junk-rated issuers in developing countries in what Goldman Sachs is calling the best financing conditions for emerging markets since 2012, Bloomberg writes. With the "new, liquid, high-yield emerging-market benchmark, there are a lot of issuers who will look to get their fundraising done quickly," said Graham Stock, head of emerging-market research at Bluebay Asset Management. As investors seek refuge from negative yields from Europe to Japan, JPMorgan Chase in March raised its forecast for 2016 sovereign sales by 64% to USD 100 bn.

An Egyptian court postponed the high-profile NGO funding case on whether to uphold an asset freeze on several prominent human rights defenders. The move ostensibly came to allow prosecutors more time to study the case,Reuters reports, but the latest trial session also happened to be scheduled for yesterday, the same day U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was in town to meet President Abdel Fattah El Sisi. Before the session, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon voiced his concern on the issue, saying “Defendants in the case must be able to benefit from all due process and fair trial standards,” according to a statement. The Foreign Ministry was having none of it, however, with spokesman Ahmed Abu Zeid saying Egypt rejected any statements that aim to interfere with the Egyptian judiciary, “especially with the statements being made hours before the court session,” according to Ahram Online. Earlier on Wednesday, the prosecution added more NGOs and individuals as defendants in the case, judicial sources told Ahram Online. Meanwhile, an Egyptian administrative court ruled on Tuesday that NGOs can receive foreign funding as long as the Social Solidarity Ministry doesn’t deem the NGO a harm to “general peace and security" or to have "negatively affected public morality,” Ahram Online reports. The verdict on the case, which was filed by Amal Abdel-Hady, chairwoman of the New Woman Foundation against the ministry, may or may not have an impact on the outcome of the ongoing NGO case.

As many as 500 migrants may have drowned in the Mediterranean last week when a vessel carrying illegal migrants to Europe capsized off the coast of Egypt, Reuters reports. “Human traffickers crammed people onto an already overcrowded ship, causing it to sink,” the UNHCR agency said on Wednesday, with the NYT saying that if confirmed, it would be the worst humanitarian calamity in Europe’s migrant crisis since more than 800 people died last April near Libyan shores. Those rescued include 23 Somalis, 11 Ethiopians, six Egyptians and a Sudanese national.

A bit late to the party, the BBC pens a piece on how writers and authors are finding themselves under more fire under the administration of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi. “There is a contradiction between President Sisi’s enlightened vision and what is happening on the ground,” said writer and administration backer Fatma Naoot, who was convicted in January for contempt of religion after she opposed the Eid Al-Adha tradition of slaughtering sheep. “If Egypt’s cultural elite had hoped that the overthrow of Islamist President Mohammed Morsi in 2013 would usher in an era of creativity and freedom of expression, they must be deeply disappointed,” according to the BBC, which goes on to list the case against author Ahmed Naji and the raid on the Townhouse gallery as examples.

Secretary of State John Kerry had a "very serious and very constructive" discussion with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during his visit yesterday, he told reporters, AP reports. "I will come back [to Cairo] with additional thoughts about ways in which we can work together to invigorate the economy, to attract investment, to create jobs, and also ways that we can work together in order to deal with Daesh particularly and to help Egypt in terms of the security concerns that it has today," Kerry stated. Washington sees Egypt as "critical" to regional peace and security, to which President Abdel Fattah El Sisi delivered a stern warning: "You have no idea what will happen to the region and to Europe if this nation collapses. We do not ignore human rights, but you must know that there are evil powers that work toward giving a negative impression about what is going on in Egypt."

Kerry, CNN notes, “showed strong support for the government of Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo Wednesday, in an apparent effort to repair a public rift over human rights.”

The two sides downplayed human rights issues in their respective communiqués, but the U.S. media thrust the issue into the spotlight at State Department spokesman John Kirby’s briefing yesterday. The full readout on the presser is here, for those so inclined.

Egypt gets brief mention as the possible home of a Russian naval base in the Mediterranean Sea as Russia bolsters its submarine fleet amid rising tensions with the Americans. Notes the New York Times: “[U.S.] Navy officials express concern that more Russian submarine patrols will push out beyond the Atlantic into the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Russia has one Mediterranean port now, in Tartus, Syria, but Navy officials here say Moscow wants to establish others, perhaps in Cyprus, Egypt or even Libya.”

(After discussing the establishment of a joint businessmen association on Tuesday, Trade Minister Tarek Kabil is now looking into signing a preferential trade agreement with the federation to help boost trade from USD 38.2 mn in 2014, of which USD 10.15 mn are Egyptian exports and USD 28.1 mn are imports.

The Oil Ministry is working on attracting USD 25-30 bn in investments in the next two and a half years, according to a statement by Oil Minister Tarek El Molla, Al Mal reports. El Molla added that the most recent agreement with Saudi Arabia seeks to expand the usage of the SUMED pipeline. The ministry is also working on preparing a new pier at the Sokhna Port to receive another floating storage and regasification unit. El Molla also expects Egypt to benefit from the failure of international oil producers to reach an agreement to freeze production as it will reduce Egypt’s energy import bill. (Read in Arabic)

Canadian consultants Transgrid Solutions are studying increasing the capacity of the Egypt-Saudi Electricity Interconnection project to 3,600 MW from 3,000 MW, an official from the Electricity Ministry told Al Borsa. Increasing the capacity of the project requires amendments to specifications in the electrical towers, cables, and transformer stations, he added. A delegation from Saudi Arabia will arrive in Egypt next week to review the technical and legal aspects of the project. The tenders are set to be issued next month over three stages, said the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company Chairman Gamal Abdel Rehim. The total cost of the project is estimated at USD 1.6 bn, of which Egypt contributes USD 600 mn, he added. (Read in Arabic)

Industry owes EGAS more than EGP 14 bn as of March, according to a statement by EGAS head Mohamed El Masry at the Eighth Mediterranean Offshore Conference and Exhibition. The substantial figure may not necessarily impact gas deliveries as EGAS has worked out a payment schedule by which private sector companies can pay EGAS in three years with a 25% down payment, while public sector companies can pay it in six years with no down payment. (Read in Arabic)

The North Sinai Governorate plans to launch 54 development and services projects worth EGP 1.3 bn, announced North Sinai Governor Abdel Fattah Harhoor. Some 43 projects have been completed at a cost of EGP 591 mn, which will be inaugurated on 25 April — Sinai Liberation Day. The governorate plans to launch seven projects in June, and four projects are slated to be completed next year, Al Masry Al Youm reports. These projects include 11 medical centers, a hospital, six new schools and a number of housing projects. The Housing Ministry had announced on Saturday plans to launch projects in North and South Sinai this month worth EGP 312.5 mn, said head of the Central Agency for Reconstruction Mohammed Nasser. The projects are also set to be announced on 25 April.

The Transportation Ministry has revealed details of its EGP 16.8 bn plan to develop Egypt’s Red Sea ports as part of the Vision 2030 plan. These include a USD 400 mn yacht marina and cruise harbor for the port of Suez. Also slated for the port is a USD 250 mn supply depot, according to Al Mal. Ras Al Adabaya port is expected to receive USD 700 mn for a logistical services and ship repair station, while the golden triangle area will receive a new USD 250 container terminal. The ministry plans to build a USD100 mn coal trading depot at Al Hamrawein port. For Damietta port, the ministry slated EGP 13 bn in projects financed through a loan from the World Bank, Al Mal reports. These include the construction of a platform for oil freights at a cost of EGP 200 mn, a EGP 25 mn platform dedicated to exporting ammonia-based fertilizers and widen and deepen the port’s shipping lane at cost of EGP 250 mn.

The Chemicals Industries and Fertilizers Export Council is looking to boost the value of chemical exports to Jordan to USD 700 mn in 2016 from USD 550 mn in 2015, according to chamber head Khaled Aboul Makarem. 2016 should see chemical exports to Africa up 20%, he added, supported by a transport agreement signed with Rift Valley Railways of Kenya and Uganda, which should reduce transport costs by 30%. (Read in Arabic)

Eva Pharma is looking to treat Spanish hepatitis C patients in Egypt, Al Mal reports. The company’s CEO will contact Spain’s embassy to inform it that treating hepatitis C is now cheaper in Egypt than it is in Spain. Eva Pharma also notes that it is certified to export medications to the European Union. (Read in Arabic)

The Saudi Egyptian Construction Company (SECON) has tapped four contractors to complete the first phase of the SECON Riyadh housing project in New Cairo, CEO Darweish Hassanen told Al Borsa. The first phase has an estimated cost of EGP 2.8-3.0 bn and includes 44 apartment buildings that will be built over an area of 68 feddans over 14 months, he added. All four contracting companies are registered under the Egyptian Federation for Construction and Building Contractors. (Read in Arabic)

The IMF finished its evaluation of Egypt’s customs policies and praised the progress achieved by the Customs Authority, according to Finance Minister Amr El Garhy. The IMF’s report recommends that the authority begin setting up a three-year development strategy and promote decentralization. The Customs Authority’s head told Al Ahram the recommendations are already being implemented and amendments to the existing customs law have been passed on to the House of Representatives. (Read in Arabic)

The level of security cooperation between Egypt and Israel is “unprecedented,” a senior Israeli military officer said on Wednesday, Reuters reports. Major-General Yair Golan, deputy commander of the Israeli armed forces, said in a briefing that the countries were stable despite the Daesh threat. "Egypt fights the Islamic State in the Sinai peninsula. Jordan is terrified by the presence of the Islamic State in Jordan’s cities and towns. And we try to work with them in order to contribute something to their security," he said. "I am quite optimistic about the future of Egypt, but I think that we are going to experience, or they are going to experience, you know, a crisis along the way," Golan said. (Read)

International school crackdown: Springboarding off the closure of Futures British School, of which we took note yesterday, Egypt Independent has a list of 28 schools it says the Education Ministry has threatened with sanctions, alleging they have engaged in “illegal increases in fees, receiving fees in USD, increasing the number of students in classes against regulations, and not obtaining work permits for foreign employees.”

The top three places in Total’s Startupper of the Year 2016 competition went to three Egyptian startups, winning against 120 other competitors from 34 African countries. The winning project was a plan to develop portable, solar-powered water pumps that serve 5 mn farmers a piece. Second place went to an app that linked patients to nearby medical centers and third place went to a social portal aimed at finding jobs for disabled job seekers. (Read in Arabic)