Wednesday, 25 November 2015

Turkey shoots down Russian fighter jet; NATO meets and Russia deploys missile cruiser in the Mediterranean

TL;DR

Turkey shoots down Russian fighter jet; NATO meets and Russia deploys missile cruiser in the Mediterranean (Speed Round)

Seven dead in Al-Arish hotel attack targeting judges overseeing election, Daesh claims responsibility (Speed Round)

Fi Hob Masr lists sweep second round of elections; most individual seats heading to runoff in early December (Speed Round)

Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait plans EGP 1 bn in new investment following Piraeus Egypt acquisition (Speed Round)

Oriental Weavers faces Prosecutor General’s probe in monopoly allegations (Business News Of Note)

Bank syndicate to lend Egyptian Electricity Holding Company EGP 10 bn to fund three power plants (Energy)

CIB to issue bonus shares in EGP 2.29 bn capital increase (Banking + Finance)

Everything you think you know about what makes a terrorist is probably wrong (Worth Reading)

By the Numbers + Maridive and Oil Services could be a good play right about now

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

There was a dearth of business and economy news yesterday as what some media outlets are dubbing the “Global Terror Crisis” took a turn for the worse after Turkey shot-down a Russian aircraft. Russia claims the two-man Su-24 was flying a combat sortie over Syria when it was downed; Turkey claims it warned the pilots multiple time they were in Turkish airspace.

If you’re a member of the chattering class (read: CNN talking head, geostrategic genius or Cairo taxi driver) the natural thing to do is pontificate about the coming of World War III. Perhaps the most intelligent (and mercifully brief) World War III story came yesterday from Esquire’s Charles P. Pierce, who urged U.S. politicians: “Please Do Not No-Fly-Zone Us Into World War III”.

Two of the most-read stories on the topic globally this morning: Slate has a reasonable piece asking “What Do We Really Mean by “World War III?“ And if the world can be divided into “lumpers” and “splitters”, the Fleet Street Fox is the ultimate lumper. From a couple of months back: “Wake up. The migrant crisis is here now but in just a year or two it might be WAR.” (The story is actually a better argued than the Daily Mirror’s screaming headline would suggest and is making the rounds of social media with a vengeance.)

Oh, and if you’re down with the theory that a “piecemeal World War III is now beginning, you can thank Pope Francis for that one. He was the first major international figure to advance the concept in speech he gave in September during a visit to Slovenia: “Even today, after the second failure of another world war, perhaps one can speak of a third war, one fought piecemeal, with crimes, massacres, destruction.”

Speaking of Francis: The Guardian reminds us that the pope will make a stop in an active war zone (Central African Republic) during his six-day, three-nation African tour, which gets underway today. It’s the first visit to Africa of his papacy. Security is being stepped up for the visit in Kenya and Uganda in the wake of the Paris and Mali attacks, and a French security official says, “We’ve informed the Vatican authorities that Pope Francis’s visit carries risks for himself and for hundreds of thousands of believers who could be there to see him.”

And whether you mark the occasion as a religious holiday, a cultural event or not at all, people with young children beware: There is one month left until western Christmas.

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

Tarek Amer takes over as governor of the Central Bank of Egypt on Friday, 27 November.

A number of conferences are taking place this week:

ON THE HORIZON

In the run-up to next week’s OPEC meeting: “Hedge funds’ bets against the oil price have risen to the highest level this year ahead of next week’s Opec meeting, in the expectation the cartel’s most powerful members will stick with their policy of keeping output high,” writes the FT. OPEC meet in Vienna on 4 December (a week from Friday.)

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Adeeb was entertaining, if slightly incoherent: The night’s main event was an on-air shouting match between Amr Adeeb and Youm7 editor Khaled Salah that turned personal toward its end. Adeeb railed against an article published in Youm7 on Tuesday (Read in Arabic) detailing Salah’s criticism of the security forces during a segment on Salah’s television program Akher El Nahar on El Nahar TV. Salah had taken the security forces to task for not better securing the site near a hotel housing judges in Arish, North Sinai, where a nearby explosion Tuesday evening claimed the lives of seven people.

Adeeb took issue with Salah “not even waiting until the blood of the dead had gone cold,” before launching his criticism of security forces. Adeeb also criticized the poor judgment on display at Youm7 for running the article along with a photograph of Salah’s face locked in its perpetually mindless toothy grin. Adeeb also pointed out that terrorism in general is almost unavoidable, as recent terror attacks worldwide have demonstrated.

Salah called in to defend himself as well as to defend the concept of media criticism of security forces. Before going any further: Without taking sides, both media figures make some valid points. As Adeeb pointed out, it requires no significant talent or courage to play armchair general: “Sitting around playing with your toes with the A/C on,” as Adeeb put it, while security forces risk their lives on a daily basis.

At the same time, Salah is right to defend the media’s role as watchdog, early warning mechanism and as a source of accountability. It is the media that informs leadership of brewing social discontent, giving the government time and information to act before situations escalate or erupt into something bigger and more difficult to control. As for accountability, Egypt has been without a parliament for more than two years, and expectations are already nonexistent for the incoming House of Representatives. The domestic media has been press-ganged into filling roles and responsibilities well above its capacity while at the same time not benefitting from any sort of systematic legal protection, much less parliamentary immunity.

However, Khaled Salah is the last person on Earth to play the “journalist under attack” card, when Youm7 has been more than enthusiastic in not only leaving other Egyptian journalists to hang out to try, but actively participating in attempts to take them down, including well-known figures. Without further ado: (Screaming match in Arabic, running time: 4:26)

Lamis El Hadidy on CBC Egypt focused on Tuesday’s terror attack in Tunisia, where a suicide bomber claimed the lives of at least 12 members of the Tunisian presidential guard while they were boarding a bus to head to the presidential palace in Tunis. El Hadidy telephoned a number of Tunisia’s artists to express her condolences and to ask about the current situation, including calls to singer and public figure Lotfi Bouchnak and former football player turned actor Dhaffer L’Abidine.

Ibrahim Eissa on Al Kahera Wal Nas focused, as he often does, on the ideological roots of terrorism. He condemned the war in Yemen, saying Saudi Arabia was actively abetting the creation of failed states in the region, beyond Syria and now Yemen. He pointed out that the war is turning Yemen into a terrorist stronghold, and as he described it, will be a potential staging ground for Yemeni-based terrorists to launch attacks against Saudi Arabia.

Eissa then turned his focus on Egypt’s initiative to reform religious discourse, saying that this simply cannot happen with the current administration of Al Azhar, which he described as a failure. “Who will influence Islamic thought worldwide? The Wahhabis, with their money? Or Egypt’s moderate vision of Islam, backed by Egypt’s history, culture and standing? As long as Wahhabi thought is widely held in Egypt, from its highest imam to the lowest, don’t talk to me about Sinai. You are only fighting terrorists, not terrorism. This has nothing to do with fraternal relations between Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The question is one of ideology. Don’t say this is a global problem — this is a problem stemming from our weakness in dealing with Wahhabis.”

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Putin’s response to Turkey’s downing of Russian aircraft: A ‘stab in the back’ by Turkey, an ‘accomplice of terrorists’: Turkey shot down a Russian bomber near the Syrian border on Tuesday, BBC reported. The Russian Defense Ministry announced “an Su-24 had crashed on Syrian territory after being hit by fire from the ground, and that its pilots had managed to eject.” Turkish military officials said the plane was shot down by Turkish F-16 jets “after repeatedly warning its pilots they were violating Turkish airspace.” Both pilots ejected, with both the Russian defense ministry and Syrian rebels saying that at least one pilot was shot dead by ground fire, according to Sputnik and as the embedded video in the article purports to show. Further, an Mi-8 rescue helicopter sent to retrieve the pilots came under missile fire, leading to the death of one Russian marine, the BBC reported.

Later in the day, Russian president Vladimir Putin held a joint press conference with King Abdullah II of Jordan, who was in Moscow for a state visit. During the press conference, the Jordanian king expressed his condolences over the loss of the bomber pilot, as well as condolences for the downing of Metrojet Flight 9268, which the king attributed to terrorism. Putin thanked the king and said that shooting was a “stab in the back” from Turkey, who he called “accomplices of terrorists.” (Watch, dubbed in English, running time: 14:35)

In response, Putin ordered the cruiser Moskva, similar to the S-300, to the Syrian coast near Latakia, and has stated that all future bombing runs will be escorted by fighter jets, Sputnik reported.

Like an idiot cat dropping a dead bird at the feet of its owner, Erdogan resorted to NATO: After an emergency session called at Turkey’s behest, the alliance expressed their full public support for Turkey’s decision to down the bomber for violating its airspace. As Putin noted in his press conference, Turkey reportedly made no attempt to communicate to Moscow and instead immediately contacted NATO as if they had been the ones attacked. “As we have repeatedly made clear, we stand in solidarity with Turkey and support the territorial integrity of our NATO ally, Turkey. … I look forward to further contacts between Ankara and Moscow and I call for calm and de-escalation,” said NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen at a press conference following Tuesday’s session.

Off the record: Reuters reports that some NATO ambassadors privately expressed misgivings with Turkey’s actions. “Diplomats present at the meeting told Reuters that while none of the 28 Nato envoys defended Russia’s actions, many expressed concern that Turkey did not escort the Russian warplane out of its airspace. ‘There are other ways of dealing with these kinds of incidents,’ said one diplomat who declined to be named.”


Seven were killed and ten injured after a car bomb exploded outside a Swiss Inn hotel  in the North Sinai town of Al Arish housing judges supervising the second phase of elections for the House of Representatives, Reuters reported. “A suicide bomber tried to drive a car bomb into the hotel before security forces opened fire on him, causing the car to explode, security sources said.” Daesh’s Wilayat Sina claimed responsibility for the attack.

Suicide bomb on Tunisian presidential guard bus kills 12: A bomb went off as Tunisian presidential guards were boarding a bus bound for the presidential palace in Tunis, Tunisia on Tuesday, Reuters reported, as noted in the talk show review above. At least 12 guards were killed and an additional 17 were wounded. Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi imposed a curfew on Tunis (it expires this morning) and extended the state of emergency by one month.

Brussels was in lockdown for fourth day yesterday as the manhunt continued: All public institutions were closed and the army remains deployed in the streets, the New York Times reports, with the rest of Belgium also on alert. On Tuesday, Belgium issued an international arrest warrant for Mohamed Abrini, a new suspect in the Paris attacks whose image was captured on CCTV driving the vehicle that was used in the attacks days before they took place. He is still at large, along with suspected mastermind Salah Abdeslam. Schools and the metro were due to re-open this morning.

French hostage situation ends, all hostages alive and secured, one hostage-taker dead, no link to terrorism: The hostage situation that began last night in the French town of Roubaix is over, BBC reports, resulting in police killing one of three hostage takers with another reportedly taken into custody. All hostages have been freed and were in a secure location, according to French police. The hostage takers were apparently planning a robbery, and the incident has no relation to terrorism or the attacks earlier this month in Paris.


Preliminary parliamentary election results: For the Love Egypt sweeps party seats, runoffs for most individual constituencies. The pro-government electoral coalition For the Love of Egypt won all 60 party-based seats in the second and final round of voting which ended on Tuesday, Ahram Online reported. Among those seats are 15 won in East Delta, facing no competition, and 45 seats from Cairo and Delta constituencies. Most districts are entering into run-offs for individual seats, set to take place next week from 1-2 December. All results reported thus far are preliminary, and official results will later be announced by the High Elections Committee (HEC).

Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait (ABK) plans to invest EGP 1 bn in its Egyptian subsidiary in 2016, said ABK executive director Michel Al Akkad. His comments come just weeks after ABK finalized the acquisition of 98.5% of Piraeus Egypt. All 39 Piraeus branches will be re-branded as Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait-Egypt in 1H2016, Al Akkad said, adding that ABK will look to buy out minority shareholders clinging to the remaining 1.5% the Egyptian unit not owned by ABK. Despite rising risk in Egypt, the country’s rate of return has grown 15%, according to Al Akkad, Al Shorouk reports. Piraeus’ divestiture of its Egyptian holdings came as a result of a five-year loss of EGP 800 mn, Al Mal notes.

Edison will complete its seismic survey of the area surrounding the Zohr gas field next month, EGPC’s head, Mohamed El Masry, said. The survey is being accelerated and was previously expected to be completed in 18 months. El Masry also added that EGPC met with Eni to discuss gas pricing for Zohr’s output. Prices will be linked to a formula capped between USD 4-5.88 per mmBtu.

Oracle denies downsizing in Egypt: Multinational tech giant Oracle held a press conference yesterday to deny allegations it was downsizing its activities in Egypt. Oracle will showcase its latest services and computing solutions announced in the previous Oracle Openworld conference, said Basil Mubarak, Director General of Oracle Egypt. (Read in Arabic)

Egypt, Israel rebuff bid to trim Sinai peacekeeping force -Source: Egyptian and Israeli officials rejected proposals to reduce the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) peacekeeping force in the Sinai by 20%, according to an unnamed Egyptian official speaking to Reuters on Tuesday. “The MFO said they want to reduce the force now, but we and Israel refused … We said this is not the proper time, during a war on terrorism. It would give jihadists the wrong message,” the official told Reuters.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to discuss advancing existing cooperation between the two countries, reports Ahram Online. Shoigu stressed that Russia is keen on continuously coordinating and consulting with Egypt on a number of regional issues of mutual interest, primarily combating terrorism and extremism, countering terrorist organizations in the Middle East and efforts to settle existing conflicts in the region.

Sharm El Sheikh and Red Sea tourism investors are requesting that their property taxes be deferred to a year or forgiven altogether at a meeting with the head of the Tax Authority Abdel Moneim Mattar on Tuesday, said Samia Hussein head of the Real Estate Tax Authority. Tourism industry associations also called for further measures, such as including hotel restaurants in any aid package. The Tourism and Finance Ministry plan to sign cooperation agreements amending taxation accounting standards for hotels and tourism sector companies, Hussein told AMAY. This follows a series of policies and financial aid packages that attempt to shield it from the downturn in the market resulting from the Metrojet crash adopted by the Ismail cabinet, the CBE and banks. Meanwhile, the Federation of Chambers of Commerce will hold a meeting with Tourism Minister Hisham Zaazou on Thursday to continue monitoring the effects of the Metrojet disaster on the tourism sector, Al Mal reports.

Investment bankers beware, the “MENA gravy train” has left the station: The Wall Street Journal calls GCC-based investment bankers the new victims of the oil price drop. “Several leading dealmakers are leaving their jobs, as merger activity and debt issuance have slumped to their lowest levels in a decade… The bankers offer various reasons for their decisions … But the unvarying backdrop is that core investment-banking business in the Gulf has dried up and with it the optimism that prompted a rush into the region a decade ago,” says the WSJ. M&A transactions regionally are at their lowest level since 2005. There is a silver lining as some boutique firms say there is still some smaller scale activity in the Middle East.

The UAE’s groundwater could dry up within 15 years, experts told the AP. Now, the country is relying on desalination to supply 98% of its drinking water. Ahmad Belhoul, the CEO of Masdar, says “in our region, water is more important than oil … We’re trying to find solutions to address that.” Belhoul thinks the low cost of water is spurring overuse and beyond fixing the price mechanism, “officials hope new desalination techniques being tested on the outskirts of Abu Dhabi will allow solar energy to replace natural gas as an energy source, as well as make the plants smaller and cheaper to operate.”

Former governor Mitt Romney is the current Republican frontrunner polling at double the numbers that Trump is getting at the moment, according to a poll (pdf) conducted by Suffolk University and the Boston Globe. Despite recent media appearances, and an op-ed published last week in the Washington Post criticizing US president Barack Obama’s strategy against Daesh, Romney insists he is under no circumstances entertaining the possibility of running in the 2016 presidential election. Although at this point, considering the current lineup of Republican hopefuls, Romney’s entrance into the race would make him look like a hero. For a better sense of the man behind the image, check out the 2014 Netflix documentary Mitt, which is based on footage collected by one filmmaker following Romney around for six years, up to and shortly after his defeat to Obama. (Watch the trailer, running time: 2:18)

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Following reports on Daesh claiming responsibility for Tuesday’s bombing in Arish, the next most widely-reported story in the foreign media press on Egypt this morning is follow-up on a story by US news outlet CBS saying Egyptian officials were investigating a parcel they suspected of containing an explosive device that was due to be shipped to the United States by DHL. Reuters later reported that Egyptian officials found no explosives.

Youth “ignore” elections: Despite a higher turnout than last month, VICE reports that “many young Egyptians stayed home to express their disgust” with the current administration. alongside mentions of the perhaps somewhat less plausible theory that “the United States is distracting them with Facebook.” The story is told entirely through a single source — a former Morsi supporter who likens the situation to a “rubber-stamp” parliament and hopes the low turnout is a sign that “the president’s popularity is flagging”. Unsurprisingly, he then admits to knowing “two people who … joined IS”. (Read)

“Rising tensions” as Nour Party “cries foul” over poor electoral performance: Reuters covers the party’s claims that the government has been “arresting members, orchestrating a media campaign against it and curbing its ability to campaign” after winning just nine out 286 seats in the first round of voting. Former Nour official Hani Sarhan, however, attributes the party’s failure at the polls to the simple fact that “the changing face of the party destroyed its popularity”. (Read)

WORTH READING

Research on causes of radicalization in Europe shows everything most people think on terrorism is wrong: Olivier Roy, former research director of France’s National Center for Scientific Research, and expert on Islam, makes some interesting observations about the profile of a typical jihadist. His findings were recently presented during a recent conference in Mainz, Germany, on international terrorism, with Roy’s work asking: ‘What is the driving force behind jihadist terrorism?’

From his research on jihadis in France, Roy comes to a number of conclusions that undermine the mainstream discourse on terrorism. The summation of his conclusions, as noted in his recent piece in Le Monde (Read in French, paywall) is simply this: Radicalization is becoming Islamized, not the other way around. Roy states: “The problem is that radicalisation seems more linked to individual trajectories than to the radicalisation of a community (although this is also good news).”

Among his findings for the causes of radicalization in Europe: There is no distinct psychological profile, except for resentment against society. The majority of radicals are second-generation Muslims born in Europe (casting the debate on Syrian refugees in a complicated new light). Many have a past of delinquency and dealing in illegal substances. Radicals include an unusual proportion of converts to Islam. And very few had previous membership with militants or political Islamists such as the Brotherhood.

In his 14-page study, Roy turns arguments advanced by the world’s politicians on their head. (Read: What is the driving force behind jihadist terrorism? – A scientific perspective on the causes/circumstances of joining the scene, pdf)

IMAGE OF THE DAY

Princess Fawzia Fuad of Egypt (1921-2013), who became Empress of Iran as the first wife of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The portrait is the most-viewed Egypt-related image on hosting site imgur. (View image)

WORTH WATCHING

PBS Frontline: Children of ISIS: Evan Williams of PBS interviews former child soldiers in Turkey who fled Daesh’s army in Syria, and who recount how the terror group recruits children through intimidation and sometimes, torture. The short film is a disturbing but instructive look at how the terror group indoctrinates children through desensitization and participation in violence, as well sheds light on punishments meted out for those who refuse to join its ranks. The film includes an interview with a 14-year old who was punished for refusing to pledge allegiance by having his hand and foot amputated. (Watch, running time: 10:40)

DIPLOMACY + FOREIGN TRADE

Egypt, Sudan take steps to de-escalate tensions: Foreign Affairs Minister Sameh Shoukry “emphasized the strength of relations between Egypt and Sudan” in a phone call with his Sudanese counterpart, Al Masry Al Youm reported. Shoukry denied that there is a rift between the two countries following news during the past week that Egyptian authorities were systematically targeting Sudanese residents in Egypt.

The Foreign Affairs Ministry published a statement in Arabic rejecting remarks made by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon’s spokesperson on his behalf on the killing of five Sudanese refugees near the Egyptian Israeli border. The Ministry’s spokesperson said the statement does not rely on factual information and urged the Secretary General to view the Egyptian Military’s statement on the incident, which claims that the refugees fired at an Egyptian border patrol.

ENERGY

Banking consortium to lend EEHC EGP 10 bn next week
A consortium of ten banks will loan the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC) EGP 10 bn next week to fund the power plants in Beni Suef, Burullus, and the new administrative capital, more commonly referred to as the Siemens plants. The major consortium partners—NBE, CIB, QNB, and the Arab African International Bank—will each contribute EGP 1.6 bn, while Al Ahli United and Abu Dhabi National Bank will each put in EGP 500 mn. The Bank of Alexandria, Audi, and the Egyptian Gulf Bank would front EGP 350 mn each. The three power plants will add 14.4 GW of power to the national grid. (Read in Arabic)

Oil Ministry asks Electricity Ministry for extra EGP 500 mn per month for fuel
The Oil Ministry is asking the Electricity Ministry to pay an extra EGP 500 mn a month for fuel used to run power stations, Daily News Egypt reports. The extra cash is needed in order to reduce EGPC’s burden of importing fuel. Out of EGP 3.1 bn worth of fuel shipped to the
electricity sector each month, EGPC only receives EGP 500 mn, with the rest adding up to the receivables from the Electricity Ministry, a source noted. The source told DNE “EGPC took out loans to import fuel to run the power plants, but now there are no more assets to borrow on,” and the authority is now looking for the Electricity Ministry to share the burden. (Read)

Electricity Ministry to switch the 1.8 GW Damanhour power plant project from multi-phase to turnkey
The Egyptian Electricity Holding Company is switching the 1.8 GW Damanhour power plant project from a multi-phase to a turnkey system, according to sources from the Electricity Ministry speaking to Al Mal. This decision prompted the EEHC to cancel a tender for consultancy work on the project. However, before it can proceed with the change, the ministry must seek the approval of the primary funders of the project—the EBRD and the Islamic Development Bank—who have varying conditions for their loans. The EEHC also informed those who have bid on the consultancy are to reapply under the new system, if approved. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS + COMMODITIES

EBRD signs EGP 200 mn loan agreement with Faragalla
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)’s board of directors signed an agreement providing EGP 200 mn to Faragalla “to boost its financial capabilities and production capacities.” As we reported, the agreement has been approved by the EBRD’s board since August. The EBRD says the funds will be used to support the working capital needs of the company as well as assist in expanding production.

REAL ESTATE + HOUSING

Heliopolis Housing receives lower than expected offers to develop 655 feddans
The Heliopolis Company for Housing and Development received two offers in a tender issued to develop, through a JV, 655 feddans in New Heliopolis. The offer from SODIC asked for 73% of revenues while the offer from Mountain View asked for 80%. Companies issuing a tender usually receive 35-40% of revenues, said Ahmed Anis, Head of the Egyptian Association of Real Estate Appraisers, noting that it could go as high as 50-60% if infrastructure has already been connected. The Heliopolis Company is now between a rock and hard place, having to choose between 27% revenues on the SODIC offer, or cancel the tender altogether. (Read in Arabic)

TOURISM

Easyjet cancels all Sharm El Sheikh flights until 6 January
Easyjet announced it has cancelled more Sharm El Sheikh-bound flights, BBC reported. All flights to Sharm El Sheikh until 6 January are cancelled, Easyjet said in order “to provide some certainty to passengers travelling over the Christmas period.” BBC notes that “Easyjet said customers on affected flights could go to another destination, receive a full refund or get a flight voucher for future travel.” (Read)

Misr Hotels to use money from Ritz-Carlton to repay banks
Misr Hotels’ CEO Moustafa Saad said the company has received a USD 12 mn grant from Ritz-Carlton following the inauguration of the Nile Ritz-Carlton hotel. Saad said the funds, which were received after the activation of the management contract, will be used to repay bank loans, without giving further details. Misr Hotels, which still owns the Nile Ritz-Carlton, said it will now focus on renovating the Safir Dahab Resort Hotel. (Read in Arabic)

TELECOMS + ICT

50 companies bid on developing IT systems for the Commercial and Real Estate Registries, a EGP 2 bn
50 companies have offered to bid on an, as of yet unissued, tender to develop and network IT systems for the Commercial and Real Estate Registries—a EGP 2 bn project, said Sherif Taher head of the private sector partnership unit at the ICT Ministry. The ICT Ministry is currently preparing to issue the tender, but has not yet given a date on when that might be, according to Taher.  He added that over 90% of the prospective applicants were Egyptian companies. This public-private partnership project was announced as part of the Third Annual PPP Conference, which took place in October. (Read in Arabic)

AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION

NAT seeks EBRD financing, expertise in changing tariff structure
The National Authority for Tunnels (NAT) has tapped the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to assists with the financing of the acquisition of 13 trains for the Cairo Metro. The EBRD is also looking for consultants who could recommend suitable tariff structure and policy measures for improved financial sustainability of the Cairo metro system moving to a zonal tariff structure. (Read)

BANKING + FINANCE

CIB to issue stockholders one bonus share for each four held
Commercial International Bank (CIB) announced it will issue its investors one bonus share for each four held. This follows the EGX’s approval of an EGP 2.29 bn capital increase to EGP 11.47 bn. The capital increase will be financed through the bank’s reserves and 229.4 mn shares will be issued at a nominal value of EGP 10 per share. (Read)

Emerging Markets Payments launches electronic funds transfer service
Emerging Markets Payments (EMP), a MENA region payment processing company, announced the launch of its EMPay MoneyXpress service, an electronic funds transfer service that works at both a person-to-person, and business-to-consumer level for holders of any main international schemes cards. The banks participating in the payment scheme’s relevant program will be able to offer near real-time transfer capabilities between cards, and funds can then be withdrawn at an ATM. (Read in Arabic)

OTHER BUSINESS NEWS OF NOTE

Prosecutor General opens Oriental Weavers investigation
The Prosecutor General’s office has opened an investigation into allegations that Oriental Weavers engaged in anticompetitive practices, said Salah Abdel Aziz, Chairman of Oriental Weavers. The case was referred to prosecution after the Egyptian Competition Authority alleged that Oriental Weavers had contractually mandated their carpet distributors only distribute Oriental Weavers merchandise. The company has submitted the contracts signed with distributors to the prosecution, Abdel Aziz added. (Read in Arabic)

LEGISLATION + POLICY

President El Sisi amends the Social Security Law
President El Sisi issued a decree on Sunday amending the Social Security Law. These amendments set the pension rates and social security payments for workers under the Civil Service Act. Social security payments will be pegged on the salary as of 30 June 2015 for employees hired before that date. The Finance Ministry and the Insurance & Social Affairs Ministry have yet to determine payments for employees hired after 30 June. At the end of each year, workers will receive 9% on top of their salaries for social security payments. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

**Further reading in Egypt politics + economics: Egypt’s police is launching a “war on prices,” Emir Nader writes for Al Monitor. “The Ministry of Interior’s General Directorate for Supply and Internal Trade, also known as the supply police, has been focusing on criminal business behaviour … but now it has turned its focus to the ‘greedy merchants’ behind price increases.”

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Arabtec’s acting CEO Mohamed Al Fahim resigned yesterday. Reuters said the company appointed board member Saeed Al Mehairbi as a replacement.

North Korean leader and Dennis Rodman BFF Kim Jong Un has reportedly sent his presumed number two from Pyongyang to a “farm” to be “re-educated.” CNN says “the reason for his exile is not known but the NIS said it may be because of differences of opinion with Kim, or because of the poor quality of construction of the Baekdusan Power Plant.”

BY THE NUMBERS
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USD CBE auction (Tuesday, 24 November): 7.7301 (unchanged since Wednesday, 11 November)
USD parallel market (Tuesday, 24 November): 8.55 (-0.02 from Wednesday, 18 November, Reuters)

EGX30 (Monday): 6321.39 (-2.01%)
Turnover: EGP 339.23 mn, 22% below the 90-day average
EGX 30 year-to-date: -29.18%

THE MARKET ON TUESDAY: Index heavyweights led an early selling wave that intensified throughout the session, leading the EGX30 to down 2.0% for the day. Oriental Weavers, Orascom Telecom and Edita bore the brunt of yesterday’s selling. Juhayna, the EGX30’s sole gainer on Monday, closed Tuesday flat. The real estate sector escaped the broad-based selling, with SODIC, Heliopolis Housing, and Palm Hills all advancing. At a turnover of EGP 339.2 mn, regional investors were the sole net buyers during the day. Globally, France’s CAC, Germany’s DAX and Britain’s FTSE closed in the red, while U.S. markets closed slightly higher on a jump in oil prices after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane. Regionally, Saudi’s TASI bucked the global trend and ended the session up 0.6% amid recovering Brent prices. All other regional exchanges slid yesterday.

Foreigners: Net short | EGP – 2.9 mn
Regional: Net long | EGP + 21.8 mn
Local: Net short | EGP -18.9 mn

Retail: 62.5% of total trades | 64.9% of buyers | 60.0% of sellers
Institutions: 37.5% of total trades | 35.1% of buyers | 40.0% of sellers

Foreign: 22.6% of total | 22.2% of buyers | 23.0% of sellers
Regional: 5.4% of total | 8.6% of buyers | 2.2% of sellers
Domestic: 72.0% of total | 69.2% of buyers | 74.8% of sellers


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Pharos has launched a new occasional report with its view on individual stocks that have strong upward potential. This report will be intermediate-to-long-term in nature and expected to serve long-term investors more than speculators. The market is still in its intermediate-term downtrend, and we still expect this trend to continue to the 5,800-6,000 area. We believe, however, that during the next expected downward leg, important chances will emerge and the bottoming formation will probably be clearer.

Since there is always a lead and lag time among different sectors and stocks, bottoms do not always come in sync; some stocks will bottom before others, some sectors will show outperformance and more resilience to market declines. This product will help investors find such stocks from a longer-term perspective.

One of the stocks that has probably begun to find its bottom is MOIL. The stock is showing major positive divergences on the weekly chart that hint of a potential major rise. Tap here to read the chart.

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WTI: USD 42.79 (-0.19%)
Brent: USD 46.12 (0.00%)
Gold: USD 1,079.30 / troy ounce (+0.56%)

TASI: 7,202 (+0.7%)
ADX: 4,218.5 (-0.8%)
DFM: 3,209.2 (-1.4%)
KSE Weighted Index: 393.1 (-0.8%)
QE: 10,611.8  (-0.6%)
MSM: 5,742.5 (-0.3%)

 

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