Thursday, 5 November 2015

El Sisi’s UK trip gets complicated as British foreign office suspends Sharm flights

TL;DR

El Sisi’s UK trip gets complicated as British foreign office suspends Sharm flights. UK Ambassador to Cairo says to “expect good news soon.” (Speed Round)

Hassan Abdou’s ed-tech startup Macat in USD 30 mn funding round (Speed Round)

Flooding in Alex, Beheira claims 12 lives so far (What We’re Tracking Today)

Banque Misr, NBE flood market with USD 800 mn to help clear import backlog, Customs Authority prepares to impose tariffs to curb imports (Speed Round)

Draft VAT law is out as a PDF download from Al-Borsa (Speed Round)

Finance Ministry says it isn’t yet seeking IMF loan (Speed Round)

Gov’t pays for home-generated solar power — for the very first time (Speed Round)

New EGPC bid round coming in December (Energy)

Abraaj acquires oncology, diagnostic imaging centers in Morocco (Health + Education)

By the Numbers + Egypt Macro and Equity Strategy: Too Much EGP Chasing Too Little USD

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Last weekend’s Russian airline crash in Sinai is playing heavily into President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s two-day visit to the UK, which began yesterday. The story leads today’s Speed Round.

Return of flash flooding in Alexandria and Beheira has claimed 12 lives thus far, according to Ahram Online, with that number possibly going up following only a few hours of rain which left Alexandria in gridlock as the city’s infrastructure failed to drain the rainwater. With former Governor Hani El Messeiry already gone, the knee-jerk reaction to fire the governor is no longer an option for the government. Al Masry Al Youm has pictures of the flooded streets. Cabinet says it has been observing the situation closely, and Prime Minister Sherif Ismail authorized the local governments in Alexandria, Beheira, and North Sinai to declare Thursday as a day off. Alexandria University cancelled classes yesterday as its campuses were flooded, Al Ahram noted, and the ports of Alexandria and Dekheila were shut down temporarily.

And to cap an unusual week, you may want to consider checking Bey2ollak or just leaving for work a bit early this morning, as there was light rain in some neighborhoods of the capital city at dispatch time. And where there’s drizzle, there’s a slow commute…

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LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Khairy Ramadan on CBC Egypt dedicated a good part of his show talking about President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s visit to the UK, going over the president’s interviews with the BBC and the Telegraph almost word-for-word. “He never denounced the 25 January uprising,” Ramadan said. “He essentially said that the uprising has not been yet completed.”

Ramadan also commented on citizens killed during flooding yesterday in Alexandria, Beheira and several other governorates, displaying images of people using inflatable rafts to navigate through flooded streets. Ramadan is upset with the lack of sewers and storm drains: “[Officials] should not leave us until we’re drowning. Are we supposed to buy an umbrella or an inflatable float?”

Ramadan is also apparently still seething over El Sisi’s speech on 1 November, making an aside at one point to the effect of: “El Sisi’s speech has made me even more confused. Not because I’m afraid of the country’s top official, but because I’m afraid of him venting about us [the media] to the Egyptian people.”

Flooding in Alexandria also dominated Ibrahim Eissa on Al Kahera Wal Nas last night, prompting The Suspendered One to declare: “To the municipalities and the government: You are failures. We’re not even meeting the basic necessities of life.”

Eissa emphasized that there are at least eight generals from the Armed Forces and Interior Ministry currently holding positions as heads of municipal districts in Alexandria. “We’re determined to remain in the past,” Essa claimed. “This flooding situation, in conjunction with no citizen oversight and dilapidated municipalities, moves us from one failure to another.”

Eissa then got to the crux of it, saying: “Is the issue with administration or resources?” Reading from the official 2015 state budget report, Eissa said that a total of EGP 127 bn in funding goes to the 27 governorates, EGP 106 bn of which is spent on employee salaries and EGP 10 bn toward purchases of services. “You have a problem with monetary resources, administrative officials, and a problem with the people who are not aware of what’s going on and can’t do anything about it,” Eissa concluded.

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SPEED ROUND

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President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s visit to the United Kingdom became particularly complicated last night. The trip already came against the backdrop of a sustained media campaign against the president, which began when the two-day stopover was first announced in June and which escalated in the days leading up to El Sisi’s departure. Then, last night, came news that a directive issued by the UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) had suspended flights to and from Sharm El Sheikh airport and the UK, with the statement saying “we have become concerned that the plane may well have been brought down by an explosive device.” The Irish Aviation Authority quickly followed suit, issuing a statement directing “Irish airline operators not to operate to/from Sharm el‐Sheikh Airport, Egypt or in the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula airspace until further notice.” Further complicating matters:

  • Wilayat Sina issued yesterday a statement claiming  responsibility for the crash a second time, daring authorities to prove that they had no hand in the downing of the aircraft.
  • According to an emailed release from the Egyptian Civil Aviation Authority on Wednesday, the cockpit voice recorder is damaged. Investigators will need additional time to extract data from it.
  • The head of Sharm El Sheikh airport was sacked, replaced by his assistant, the AP reports. The chair of the civil aviation authority Adel Mahgoub says the move “had nothing to do with media skepticism surrounding the airport’s security,” according to the AP.
  • Meanwhile, a report from CNN cited an unnamed source in US intelligence as saying their “feeling” was that a bomb brought down Flight KGL 9268, while admitting there was no conclusive evidence affirming this view.
  • All of this was further compounded by a Reuters report citing an unnamed Egyptian official who is reportedly close to the investigation as saying “It is believed to be an explosion but what kind is not clear. There is an examination of the sand at the crash site to try and determine if it was a bomb.”
  • This story is still developing — the most comprehensive live updates page at the moment is being run by The Guardian.

Meanwhile: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi called upon the UK and NATO to complete the mission started in Libya “to prevent the country becoming another Islamist-dominated state like Syria,” in an interview with The Telegraph. Libya has become a danger that threatens “all of us,” El Sisi added, noting that the absence of a government there creates a vacuum where extremists can prosper. He also called on for more help to the Libyan people and the Libyan economy and to stop the flow of funds and weapons to extremists.

Expect some good news soon,” said British Ambassador to Egypt John Casson said in a tweet in Arabic, adding that “we [the UK and Egypt] will step on the cooperation gas pedal a bit” in a sign that an agreement is likely to be announced today during El Sisi’s meeting with British Prime Minister David Cameron. (Our eyes are on you, BP and BG.)

Education tech startup Macat announced yesterday a USD 30 mn funding round, according to a statement from the company. The latest round, which has three closings, will add USD 10 mn in equity to the USD 20 mn previously raised from angel investors. Macat and its CEO — Egypt’s Hassan Abdou — also got some love from Business Insider: “The company takes some of history’s most famous books and thinkers, and has a stable of 600 young professors and PhD candidates ‘translate’ them into engaging lessons.” Macat is producing its own original content with a focus on developing critical thinking, backed up by a study already completed by the University of Cambridge which has found Macat’s program to register an “improvement in both discipline-specific and general critical thinking skills in just 8 hours,” BI notes. The BI write-up also says Macat is commissioning in partnership with the University of Cambridge the world’s largest-ever study of critical thinking. You can can register now to take part, with the study itself launching in January 2016. Abdou’s comment here, addressed to employers in the United States, should resonate even more strongly with entrepreneurs and hiring managers in Egypt: “There is a growing gap between what industry needs in terms of critical thinking and what graduates arriving in the workplace have to offer.”

Banque Misr and NBE have injected USD 800 mn over the past three days to clear the import backlog, according to Mohamed El Etreby, Banque Misr’s Chairman, elaborating on statements we noted on Monday. “We have released all the goods that were awaiting release and that is from the banks’ own resources, and we will continue doing so until there is no more demand,” El Etreby added, according to Reuters. Two bankers are wondering where foreign currency liquidity is coming from and are saying that the banks could have gone short “by selling the dollars in the expectation that their position will be covered in the short term” or that they were promised to receive a hard currency injection through an auction by the CBE.

…Goods are being cleared at ports after USD was made available, confirmed Mohamed El Sewedy, the head of the Federation of Egyptian Industries said. El Sewedy said banks, particularly NBE and Banque Misr, have begun opening up letters of credit for importers and provided hard currency liquidity. A boost in domestic production is expected after the wave of clearances and the government’s directive to rely more on local products, El Sewedy added, according to remarks cited by Al-Borsa.

Net foreign reserves increased marginally in October by USD 80 mn, according the Central Bank of Egypt on Wednesday.

Egypt is working on a list of import substitutes as it prepares to hike customs on select goods by 30-40% to curb imports, Customs Authority chief Magdy Abdel Aziz said at an AmCham gathering on Tuesday, Al Borsa reports. A notable exception to the list is automobile spare parts, said Abdel Aziz. He adds that the Customs Authority has set a list of government-guided prices for 460 goods including motorcycles, toys, and ready-made clothes, according to Al Mal. Abdel Aziz pointed out that these prices are for goods sold in Egypt. It is also looking to prioritize which chemicals will require testing in order to help clear a backlog of imports used in chemical manufacturing. It will draw up a “white list” of companies which will have their imports expedited through the lengthy testing process, Al Mal adds. The authority and a number of other government bodies have also drawn up a list of 88 chemicals that will require more thorough inspection.

The VAT draft: Al Borsa published what it claims are the amendments (pdf) to the Sales Tax Act that replace it with a value-added tax (VAT). These amendments were ratified by the Cabinet economic group, said Tax Authority chief Abdel Moneim Mattar. He added that under the VAT, export tariffs would eliminated. He repeated statements from earlier in the week that some rates will remain unchanged (cigarettes, alcohol), while exempting groceries and food products, Al Mal reports. While these amendments provide the legislative basis to implement the VAT, they do not reveal details on the specific tax rates. These would be released after the law is officially published, an unnamed official in the Finance Ministry told AMAY. The unnamed official added that government and security officials recommended to the Finance Ministry that the VAT in its current form should be postponed as the economic and political climate won’t take more unrest.

Finance Ministry spokesman Ayman Al Qaffas turned to the pages of Al-Mal to issue a denial that the government is seeking a loan from the IMF, refuting reports published in rival outlet Al Borsa to the contrary. Al Borsa had reported that government plans to request a USD 3-5 bn loan next week from the IMF, citing an unnamed “government source.” While Egypt is in continuous dialogue with the IMF on Egypt’s economic and fiscal policies, there are no negotiations at this time with the IMF for loans, said Al Qaffas. “Unsubstantiated reports will have a negative impact on the economy,” he added.

The EBRD is looking for consultants to engage for a project to rejuvenate of Downtown Cairo, according to a statement issued yesterday. The bank is considering financing the refurbishment of a number of real estate assets located in Downtown Cairo intended primarily for commercial use. The EBRD will task consultants to develop a clear implementation plan for an integrated and sustainable regeneration of Downtown Cairo, conduct energy and resource efficiency audits, suggesting appropriate cost-effective technical measures/recommendations, and also hold a national policy dialogue engaging the public and private stakeholders.

The new cement licensing regulations drawn up by the Trade Ministry dictate that the Industrial Development Authority must issue cement licenses in all governorates and not restrict them to Upper Egypt, said Trade Minister Tarek Kabil at the AMCHAM meeting. The regulations have been sent to the cabinet for approval, Al Borsa reports.

It’s a drum we never tire of beating: “Egypt’s clogged-up courts need reform to attract investors,” writes Patrick Werr for the National in his weekly column on the Egyptian economy. Based in part on a talk with an advisory to the Ministry of Administrative Development, Werr looks at a pilot program that could help propel cases through the system faster by eliminating one avenue for corruption. Notable fact: 55% of all economic cases are heard in Cairo. Worse still: A source in the know tells Enterprise the backlog is at something around 40 million cases. That’s enough to say that — in statistical terms — half of Egypt is taking legal action against the other half.

The government just paid for home-generated solar power — for the very first time: The government has begun paying for power generated by solar panel arrays installed in homes and connected to power grid, said Hisham Tawfik, chairman of Cairo Solar, which installs the systems and connects them to the national grid. North Cairo Electricity Distribution Company paid EGP 1,874 for two months of power generated, the first payment of under the feed-in tariff regime since it began in October 2014. The 6 KW home systems cost EGP 65k and can generate fees of up to EGP 11k per year, Veto Gate says.

The Ismail cabinet held its weekly meeting yesterday, issuing a flurry of legislative and administrative decisions, Al Ahram reports. These include:

Economic decisions:

  • Approved a wheat and sugarcane subsidy of EGP 1,300 per feddan to farmers owning up to 25 feddans, to be issued prior to harvest season (January and February) (Read in Arabic);
  • Approved a loan from the Saudi Fund for Development to the EGPC to finance the import of petroleum products;
  • Appointing the National Transport & Overseas Services Company (NOSCO) to develop Burullus port;
  • Approved the formation of a company charged with running the 1.5 mn Feddan Project, which has the authority to designate investment zones and issue tenders. The company’s issued capital would be EGP 15 bn, which it must pay back in three years (Read in Arabic);
  • Allocating 240 feddans in Assiut for agricultural projects.

Legislative & Administrative decisions:

  • Forming a regulatory body for waste management that will supervise waste management activities, set standards and practices, and develop economic opportunities in waste management. The body will also take over handling hazardous waste from the Environment Ministry (Read in Arabic)
  • Approved an amendment by the president to the Public Sector Companies and Authorities Law which will allow public companies to establish joint-stock companies, partnerships limited by shares, and limited liability companies (Read in Arabic)
  • Approved amendments by the president to the law governing private security companies, giving them a year to meet the requirements for operating in the country
  • Amending the Public Roads Law imposing a toll on the use of highways selected by the prime minister of EGP 10 per passenger car, EGP 20 for busses and vans, and EGP 50 for trucks (Read in Arabic)

Canada has a new prime minister and a new cabinet — with gender parity, at that. And may we say that the new defence minister — a combat veteran and the first Sikh Canadian to command a Canadian regiment — is simply badass (photo here)?

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

As noted in What We’re Tracking above, named UK officials and one unnamed US official are releasing a continuous trickle of statements suggesting a bomb may have brought down Flight KGL 9268. These updates for the moment are best tracked live at the Guardian.

The latest statements overshadow coverage over the past few days of reports that tourists had thus far not been put off from visiting Egypt despite the tragedy. On Monday the AP noted: “For the moment, the impact of Saturday’s crash, which killed all 224 people on board, is far from being felt in Sharm el-Sheikh … Hesitation by tourists so far has focused on the airline, Metrojet, not Egypt in general, with Russian state media reporting that some tourists were seeking to cancel package tours that used the carrier.”

On the reaction of Russian tourists who are still in Egypt after the crash of Flight KGL 9268: “…Here in the resort area where the plane took off minutes before the crash, thousands of sun-seekers from Russia and other European countries arriving daily say they are undeterred. Most have already written off the possibility that the crash was terrorism. They shrug off the risks, exhale cigarette smoke and talk about destiny. ‘Russia is dangerous and not safe either,’ said Svetlana Golobitz, a pediatrician from St. Petersburg sucking on a cigarette just outside the terminal gate. ‘You can have an accident driving in a car or walking in the night; this is your fate,’ she said. ‘I like this place, so I want to spend my winter here.’” (NYT)

The BBC’s Lyse Doucet interviewed President Abdel Fattah El Sisi. While the link does not carry the full video interview, the write-up gives a summary with a heavily critical slant. The highest-rated reader comments (for what anonymous comments left on the internet are worth) are unanimously supportive of El Sisi and dismissive of attempts to portray the Brotherhood’s time in office as anything other but disastrous for Egypt. The comments are worth a look and are to a degree a gauge of what ordinary UK citizens think as opposed to its leftist elite.

International Business Times UK quotes UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn from a statement as saying “David Cameron’s invitation to Britain today of the Egyptian president and coup leader Abdel Fattah el-Sisi shows contempt for human and democratic rights and threatens, rather than protects, Britain’s national security … “Support for dictatorial regimes in the Middle East has been a key factor fuelling the spread of terrorism.” (Read)

WORTH READING

Blame ISIS for Russian Jet Crash? Put Up Evidence or Shut Up, Clive Irving, the Daily Beast: “Suspicion is not good enough when we are talking about what would be the worst attack on civil aviation since 9/11. The crash might have been sinister, but reporting so far doesn’t support that scenario.” While Irving incorrectly states that Wilayat Sina claimed to have down the plane with a missile (the original claim was deliberately vague and did not state how the terror group allegedly caused the crash) the urging of caution in this reporting is spot on, as is the very real negative impact on Egypt that can be generated for what may in the end turn out to be a red herring. (Read)

IMAGE OF THE DAY

An infant girl is the sole survivor of a Russian-built plane which crashed in South Sudan on Wednesday. (View image, photo credit: Amir Bol, Anadolu Agency)

WORTH WATCHING

Need an antidote to the doom and gloom above? Everything sounds better when narrated by Sir David Attenborough. This apparently also applies to Adele’s new song, Hello, which Attenborough narrated on BBC Radio 1. As he does, Attenborough sets the scene: Adele’s startled look in the middle of a field “she, like all popstars, needs to hunt to survive, but there is a problem — the signal is poor and she hasn’t upgraded her handset since 1999 #FlipPhone.” (Watch, running time 1:58)

ENERGY

Lots of good will toward Egypt from energy investors, Circle Oil’s CEO says
There are no security threats to ongoing operations in Egypt, Circle Oil CEO Mitchell Flegg said in an interview, noting that “there is also lots of good will towards Egypt from the investment community” while acknowledging that “there is political risk across the majority of oil mines.” Circle Oil has a “world class set of assets” and a “balance between exploration, appraisal and production,” according to Flegg, who added that “having both oil and gas production was also important, with gas in Morocco, oil in Egypt and also exciting exploration going on in Tunisia.” Flegg said Circle Oil is not a main operator in Egypt, but that they control a 40% interest in concessions that allow the company a certain amount influence. The field is naturally declining and is past its peak production levels, so Circle Oil is now focusing on maintaining and protecting existing resources, Flegg added. (Read)

EGPC issuing new bid round in December
A new E&P bid round will be announced at the end of December, sources at EGPC told Egypt Oil and Gas. The round will offer new concession areas in the Western Desert and follows Oil Minister Tarek El Molla’s comments that “several new bid rounds will be issued.” Egypt Oil and Gas expect the bid round to be announced on 31 December and considers the move to me a good one “given the poor interest in the last bid round issued by EGAS for the Mediterranean area.” (Read)

Total rushing to meet drilling deadline in Cypriot block adjacent to Zohr
French energy company Total is reportedly rushing to meet a drilling deadline in its Cypriot block 11. The block is adjacent to the Shorouk concession, which holds the Zohr field, and Total had written it off before U-turning following Eni’s discovery. “If the French company manages to drill before February, then this would allow Total to apply for license extensions, thus getting its foot in the door for further exploration for natural gas as well as oil,” In Cyprus reports. (Read)

Petrobel begins production from North Baltim well 3 at 45 mcf daily
The Belayim Petroleum Company (Petrobel), IEOC’s JV, announced it completed drilling the North Baltim Well 3, in the Nile Delta offshore concession. The company says the well has begun production at a rate of 45 mcf of gas per day. The company is also drilling a second well, North Baltim 6, that will begin production within two months with a capacity of 15 mcf daily. The drilling for the Nidoco North West 2 well was also completed, and has gone into production last August and pumps out 88 mcf of gas per day. (Read in Arabic)

Shell completes building 3 vertical limestone wells in Apollonia says EGPC
Shell completed drilling three vertical wells on limestone layers in the Apollonia field in the Western Desert collect data on the possibility of horizontal drilling and shale fracking. The company had planned to drill 40 wells, but reduced that number due to plummeting oil prices, said an official from the EGPC to Al Borsa. He estimates that reserves from the Apollonia field trapped in limestone layers amount to 700 bn cubic feet. (Read in Arabic or in Daily News Egypt)

INFRASTRUCTURE

Three tenders from authorities at new cities
The development authorities for Obour City, New Beni Suef, and New Qena will issue three tenders. Obour City will launch a tender to bring in and install two water pumps for the sewer system, while New Beni Suef is looking to build a new bus station. New Qena will seek to develop a youth center on a 15 feddan plot of land. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS + COMMODITIES

Suez Cement to convert two plants to alternative energy
Suez Cement announced it plans on converting two more of its plants to use alternative energy sources, at a total cost of EGP 300-400 mn each. The company is aiming to convert the Tora and Helwan plants to use coal and mazut, following in the footsteps of the Kattameya and Suez plants in the last few months. The cost per tonne is expected to fall to EGP 70 after the conversion. The company denied that it had applied for a cement licence in the last round as its current capacity is a surplus over the c45 million estimated demand. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

Abraaj acquires oncology and diagnostic imaging centres in Morocco
Abraaj Group announced it has created the largest private oncology and diagnostic imaging network in Morocco following the acquisition of two centres via its second generation North Africa Fund. Abraaj acquired a majority stake in Centre de Traitement Al Kindy, Casablanca’s largest private oncology clinic, and Clinique Spécialisée Menara, a leading oncology and imaging diagnostics center in Marrakech. Abraaj says “the network will expand over time to include partnerships with domestic and international oncology and imaging diagnostics centers in order to extend its services and reach.” (Read)

** Further reading in HEALTH+EDUCATION: The African Development Bank published a working paper on fundamentally changing the way students in the MENA region are educated (pdf). The paper presents 13 recommendations including focusing on education for self-employment, incorporating new pedagogical approaches, and initiating actions to involve the diaspora and get benefit from their international exposure.

PBDAC to issue tender for EGP 300 mn in IT infrastructure upgrades
The Principal Bank for Development & Agricultural Credit (PBDAC) will issue a tender within days to choose a consultancy firm to handle the process of developing the IT infrastructure of the bank over the coming three years, said PBDAC Chairman Attia Salem. The company that wins the tender will also be in charge of issuing another tender to choose the company that will execute the project he added. PBDAC has allocated a preliminary sum of EGP 300 mn for the development process, which includes upgrading software, hardware, and the communication network between the bank’s 1,200 branches. (Read in Arabic)

BANKING + FINANCE

Delays in turning MoUs to contracts were mainly due to the government’s dithering, say investment banks
Delays in turning MoUs to contracts were mainly due to the government’s dithering, according to sources from Pharos, Prime Holding, and HC Securities & Investments speaking to AMAY. The investment bankers say government inaction and foot-dragging saw memos expire for both the EGP 2.5 bn Jamsha project and the EGP 150 bn October Oasis project. They renewed calls for the Investment Ministry to renew contracts with investment banks to market major investment projects. (Read in Arabic)

WorldRemit begins money transfer service in Egypt
WorldRemit, a global money transfer app, launched its services in Egypt yesterday. The service is described as one that can send money like an instant message. “Customers in 52 countries can now send money transfers from the WorldRemit app direct to any bank account in Egypt,” the company’s press release said. “Remittances play an important role for prosperity and development in Egypt. Yet more than that, they provide a vital link with Egyptians in the diaspora,” WorldRemit’s CEO and founder Ismail Ahmed said. (Read)

LEGISLATION + POLICY

State Council reviewing 30 laws and executive regulations
The State Council’s legislation division is reviewing 30 laws, executive regulations, and petroleum agreements, said Ahmed Qotb, a department head in the division The most prominent of these include the executive regulations of the anti-monopoly act, amendments to the Capital Markets Law, amendments to the National Investment Bank Law, and a draft Drinking Water and Wastewater Law. The legislations division also reviewed agreements with Apache. After reviewing some of these, such as the the executive regulations of the Civil Service Law, the Council sent their recommendations to the cabinet for approval. (Read in Arabic)

Ismail forms price controls committee
Prime Minister Sherif Ismail has formed a committee to set price controls headed by Supply Minister, Khaled Hanafy, and which include the Ministries of Interior, Industry & Trade, Agriculture, Local Development, Health, Social Solidarity, Supply and the Civil Service Projects Administration of the Armed Forces. The primary stated strategy to ensure prices of essential goods are regulated would be to increase availability of supplies. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

Salman discusses investments in petroleum and renewables with German business delegation
Investment Minister Ashraf Salman met with a German business delegation representing several German companies to entice them into investing in the petroleum, renewable energy, and consulting sectors. Salman outlined the government’s economic policies and the upcoming legislative reforms. The delegation agreed to meet with a number of Egyptian businessmen to discuss the possibility of partnerships. (Read in Arabic)

NATIONAL SECURITY

Three police officers, suicide bomber dead in attack in North Sinai
Three police officers and a suicide bomber were killed outside the police club in the North Sinai town of Arish, according to Aswat Masriya quoting the Ministry of Interior. The attacker reportedly attempted to break into the club but hit a concrete barrier where his bomb detonated. Ahram Online notes that Wilayat Sina claimed responsibility for the attack on Twitter.

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Out of its USD 7 bn in total investments in countries like China, India, and South Africa, private equity firm Actissays it has achieved its highest investments profits in Egypt, chairman Torbjorn Caesar announced in a meeting with President Abdelfattah El Sisi on Wednesday, according to AMAY.

Americans just can’t get over the fact that Egyptians built the Pyramids: The AFP, among other newswires, are reporting this morning on an old video of perpetually sleepy Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson giving a commencement speech in 1998 at Andrews University, where he presented his theory that the Pyramids of Giza were built by Joseph to store grain. Carson has recently moved ahead of Donald Trump in several national polls in the United States. (Watch Carson’s theory about the Pyramids until about the 4:30 mark, running time: 1:27)

BY THE NUMBERS

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USD CBE auction (Tuesday, 03 November): 7.9301 (unchanged since Sunday, 18 October)
USD parallel market (Tuesday, 03 November): 8.50 (+0.10 since Sunday, 01 November)

EGX30 (Wednesday): 7450.36 (+0.23%)
Turnover: EGP 367.0 mn (16% below the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: -16.53%

Foreigners: Net Long | EGP +15.6 mn
Regional: Net Short | EGP -16.4 mn
Local: Net Long | EGP +0.8 mn

Retail: 66.0% of total trades | 60.3% of buyers | 71.6% of sellers
Institutions: 34.0% of total trades | 39.7% of buyers | 28.4% of sellers

Foreign: 16.6% of total | 18.7% of buyers | 14.5% of sellers
Regional: 8.5% of total | 6.3% of buyers | 10.8% of sellers
Domestic: 74.9% of total | 75.0% of buyers | 74.7% of sellers


***

PHAROS VIEW

Excess Liquidity Parked at the CBE Approaches Historic Highs, Driven by Deficit Monetization

The size of excess liquidity parked by banks at the CBE soared to EGP 159.6bn by the end of September 2015, which is its highest since September 2008 and close to its historic peak of EGP 193.5bn recorded in July 2008. While the September 2015 figure may seem to support the fact that commercial banks enjoy a strong liquidity base, it actually mirrors our deep concerns over the CBE’s full reliance on deficit monetization to bridge the government’s funding gap, in the absence of an adequate foreign reserve cover.

In an environment of weak balance of payments inflows, we view the surge in EGP liquidity (including excess liquidity at the CBE) as a liability rather than an asset. We fully understand that the CBE has been forced to adopt this policy to fund the budget gap. Moreover, supersonic growth in deposits both at the banking system level and at large commercial banks have been largely underpinned by the CBE’s deficit monetization operations. We continue to claim that the deficit monetization operations undertaken by the CBE cannot be long-lived. What does this mean to your strategy? We continue to urge clients to increase the cash component in their portfolios and, within equities, prioritize defensives and devaluation-positive stocks. Tap here for the full background.

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Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

Enterprise is available without charge thanks to the generous support of HSBC Egypt (tax ID: 204-901-715), the leading corporate and retail lender in Egypt; EFG Hermes (tax ID: 200-178-385), the leading financial services corporation in frontier emerging markets; SODIC (tax ID: 212-168-002), a leading Egyptian real estate developer; SomaBay (tax ID: 204-903-300), our Red Sea holiday partner; Infinity (tax ID: 474-939-359), the ultimate way to power cities, industries, and homes directly from nature right here in Egypt; CIRA (tax ID: 200-069-608), the leading providers of K-12 and higher level education in Egypt; Orascom Construction (tax ID: 229-988-806), the leading construction and engineering company building infrastructure in Egypt and abroad; Moharram & Partners (tax ID: 616-112-459), the leading public policy and government affairs partner; Palm Hills Developments (tax ID: 432-737-014), a leading developer of commercial and residential properties; Mashreq (tax ID: 204-898-862), the MENA region’s leading homegrown personal and digital bank; Industrial Development Group (IDG) (tax ID:266-965-253), the leading builder of industrial parks in Egypt; Hassan Allam Properties (tax ID:  553-096-567), one of Egypt’s most prominent and leading builders; and Saleh, Barsoum & Abdel Aziz (tax ID: 220-002-827), the leading audit, tax and accounting firm in Egypt.