Tuesday, 20 October 2015

Egypt not looking to borrow from IMF, value-added tax in place by year’s end, says Dimian

TL;DR

Egypt election results Thursday; Canadians turf Tories (What We’re Tracking)

Egypt not looking to borrow from IMF, Dimian says (Speed Round)

We’ll have a VAT by year’s end. Really, honestly, truly. (Speed Round)

Russia is closing in on agreement to build the Daba’a nuclear station. (Speed Round)

Cabinet to unveil 20 PPPs worth USD 12-15 bn (Spotlight on PPP conference)

Shaker gags state-owned power companies (Spotlight)

Shell eyeing ‘unconventional’ extraction techniques (Energy)

By the Numbers + A short note on the ongoing currency devaluation

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Devaluation watch: The CBE is scheduled to hold its second weekly FX auction today, with the third and final sale coming on Thursday.

Election watch: Polls closed last night in round one of elections for the House of Representatives, with the High Election Commission announcing that official results for this stage will be out by Thursday. In the other election winning global attention yesterday, Canadian voters turfed Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper in favour of a fresh start with Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. Both CBC and the Globe & Mail are predicting a comfortable Liberal majority.

The Wind Power North Africa, focusing on Egypt, Morocco, Libya and Tunisia, continues today at the Sonesta Hotel Tower & Casino, and will run until Wednesday.

The Third Annual Public Private Partnership (PPP) conference, held under the auspices of Prime Minister Sherif Ismail, closes today at the Four Seasons Hotel Nile Plaza. See our Spotlight on the first day of the conference in the speed round below.

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LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

“What does the low-voter turnout mean?” asked a clearly disconcerted Ibrahim Eissa last night as he again dissected the first round of the ‘election with no voters.’ “It means that we, the Egyptian people, are currently suffering from political apathy. What happened when we last suffered from political apathy, when Mubarak and his henchmen were in power? It resulted in an increase in the popularity of Islamists. It seems like history is repeating itself. This is very worrying.”

The host then shifted his attention to the government’s decision to sell land parcels to Egyptian expatriates as a means of shoring up its supply of USD. “This plan lacks any semblance of creativity or outside-of-the-box thinking,” said Eissa. “The government continues to rely on land sales and real estate properties as its engine of economic growth, while continuing to neglect the development of the country’s industrial sector. We have a 1[.5] mn acre reclamation project and another 1 mn unit housing project, but hear no mention of similar projects in manufacturing.”

The episode’s daily list was Top ten ways to succeed. Among them:.

10. Listen often, speak rarely
9. Discover what you’re good at
6. Have an imagination
5. Learn from others’ mistakes
2. Take risks

Meanwhile, Amr Adeeb and co., held a special episode of Al Qahera Al Youm covering the first round of parliamentary elections. Adeeb was in particularly fine sarcastic form.

Adeeb: “It seems that Hizb El Kanaba (The Couch Party) has returned to Egypt’s political landscape. … Ahly SC was able to grab the attention of Egypt’s youth more than the parliamentary elections. 107 political parties have failed to attract voters to polling station in the past two days.”

Lamis El Hadidy, host of CBC’s Hona El Assema, was similarly grumpy: “We must ask why Egypt’s youth did not participate in these election. This is a dangerous development… Foreign media’s comments that the low-voter turnout is due to a decrease in the popularity of President El-Sisi is pure nonsense.”

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SPEED ROUND

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We are not looking to borrow from the IMF, Finance Minister Hany Dimian reiterated yesterday, adding that there’s no set date by which Egypt will issue the expected international bond. “After we announced our intention there was some turbulence… in the Chinese financial market that had a negative effect on liquidity in the global markets in general, especially on investors who intended to invest in growing markets,” Dimian said. Talks with international investment banks are still underway, Dimian noted, and the ministry is monitoring international markets. The finance minister also noted that legislative reforms to allow the issuance of sukuk are still being finalized. Al Ahram quotes Dimian as saying he hopes the bonds issuance is completed before year’s end.

Moving forward with VAT: Dimian — who was exceptionally talkative yesterday (see below) — also said that the implementation of a value-added tax is only “one consultative Cabinet meeting away” from being taken to the president for final approval, Al Mal reports. Dimian declined to give a date, but said he expects the measure to be in place before year’s end.

No return to free-zones -Dimian: Finance Minister Hany Dimian reiterated his refusal to return to using free zones to promote investment, even if they are well regulated. The establishment of Special Economic Zones under the Unified Investment Law makes free zones unnecessary, Al Borsa reports the minister as saying. Dimian’s remarks came after Investment Minister Ashraf Salman has reportedly lobbied cabinet’s economic group to amend the Unified Investment Law to allow free-zones to come back under specific circumstances. In the eyes of the Finance Ministry, free zones equal lost customs revenues.

The government could resort to increasing the prices of some petroleum derivatives to address fiscal concerns, according to an official statement as reported by Al Mal. The move would come if the economic situation worsens considerably and the government is unable to rein in the budget deficit. This would likely happen during 1Q2016, the source added. The comments came after Oil Minister Tarek El Molla remarked that a final solution fuel subsidies needs to be found.

President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and other high ranking government officials met with Rosatom’s CEO Sergey Kirienko on Monday to resume talks over building the Daba’a power station. According to the President’s spokesperson Alaa Yussef, yesterday’s meeting explored both the technical and financial details of Rosatom’s offer, Al Mal reports. The Daba’a site is expected to be home to as many as four nuclear power plants and to be completed by 2025.


SPOTLIGHT on public-private partnerships

Finance Minister Hany Dimian announced 20 projects totaling USD 12-15 bn — including four 25k seat stadiums and two major solid waste recycling zones — as the third PPP conference got underway in Cairo yesterday, Al Ahram reports. Ater Hanoura, head of the Ministry’s Public-Private sector Partnership Unit, said that seven of these projects would be announced in 2015, while rest would be announced next year with tenders launched on a weekly basis.

Growth targets: The government plans to bring in EGP 360 bn in new investments this year to achieve its GDP growth target of 5-5.5%, said Investment Minister Ashraf Salman. He added that the Ismail government’s goal is to boost private sector involvement in the economy to 75%, up from its current 70%, Al Masry Al Youm reports. He pointed to a World Bank report that ranks Egypt fourth among countries with active public and private sector partnerships.

Partners in infrastructure: The Ismail government will form a new land authority responsible for the allocation of land for development, announced Housing Minister Mustafa Madbouly. This may be the Housing Ministry’s long-awaited bid to bypass the Investment Ministry in issuing land tenders, although we don’t know how this will be managed in light of the Unified Investment Law. He stated that the private sector would be an active partner in key national projects including the 1.5 mn feddan project; building new cities (New Alamein) and social housing; the development of intra-city transport in new cities; and the building of roads connecting the new cities to the proposed administrative capital. Al-Ahram has more.

The Suez Canal Development axis was the star of the conference: The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) is preparing a global investment summit to be held this year to showcase opportunities in the axis, said SCA head Mohab Mamish. The SCA had received the full lineup of projects from the army’s Engineering Authority and is awaiting approvals from President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to begin marketing them. Projects likely to be first in line are auto assembly, electronics, textiles, furniture and container manufacturing, in addition to construction and food industries. According to Al Masry Al Youm, Mamish stated that 31 companies have submitted offers to invest in the area, adding that the Cabinet is currently allocating land for projects and working on legislation to regulate investment in the area, Al Borsa reports.

Banks chime in: A number of bankers have praised government policy and legislation in facilitating PPP projects. Fathy El-Sebai, chairman of the Housing & Development Bank, said the banking sector continues to provide financing for PPPs, denying reports the industry is pulling back. The African Development Bank (AfDB) is committed to leveraging its 10-year experience in PPP projects to helping private sector companies wishing to enter into PPP projects with the government, said bank representative Leila El Mokaddem at the Third Annual PPP Conference in Cairo. However, she stressed that PPP projects can only work if the ministers follow through on their pledges to investors, according to Al Mal.


Moves to partially privatize state-owned companies in the works: PricewaterhouseCoopers and Beltone will complete within in six months a feasibility study on a possible IPO for the state-owned Food Industries Holding Company (FIHC). The results of the study will determine whether the company would ne partially privatized to obtain capital for expansions. Supply Minister Khalid El-Hanafy stated that an IPO of this kind would be a new model for state-owned businesses to obtain funding. EGX head Mohamed Omran had held meetings with the Supply Minister in February to discuss the possibility of amending or scrapping laws that mandate 100% state ownership of public-sector holding companies, Al Borsa reports.

Electricity Minister gags staff of state-owned power companies: Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker banned the entire power sector from communicating with the media in a directive issued to the heads of state-owned companies. Any statements or comments to the media must be coordinated through the official spokesperson for the ministry, Mohamed Al Yemani. According to Al Borsa, his interest lies in keeping a tight lid on a number of projects, especially in nuclear energy. Over the summer, he had fired the ministry’s leading advisor on nuclear energy for talking to the media. (Read in Arabic)

CIA director’s email apparently hacked by American high school students: The New York Post broke a story on Sunday that an American high school student has hacked the personal AOL email account of the director of the CIA John Brennan, who has used the account to store work-related documents. The hacker described himself as an “American high school student who is not Muslim and was motivated by opposition to US foreign policy and support for Palestine.” According to an unnamed source speaking to the Post: “I can’t believe he did this to the head of the CIA,’’ the source added. “[The] problem with these older-generation guys is that they don’t know anything about cybersecurity, and as you can see, it can be problematic.” The Guardian reported that on Monday, the hacker or hackers “released a spreadsheet allegedly from Brennan’s account that included the alleged CIA employees’ clearance levels, email addresses, phone numbers and social security numbers.”

Facebook Security announced in a post on Saturday that it will begin to notify its users if they suspect that an account was “targeted or compromised by an attacker suspected of working on behalf of a nation-state… We do this because these types of attacks tend to be more advanced and dangerous than others, and we strongly encourage affected people to take the actions necessary to secure all of their online accounts.”

Saudi Arabia is delaying payments to government contractors due to the drop in oil prices, sources told Bloomberg. “Companies working on infrastructure projects have been waiting six months or more for payments as the government seeks to preserve cash … Delays have increased this year and the government has also been seeking to cut prices on contracts,” the sources added. “It’s hard to hold back from boosting spending when oil is on the rise, but very hard to cut when oil prices fall,” HSBC’s Simon Williams commented. Payment delays could now delay projects including the USD 22 bn Riyadh Metro as Saudi Arabia is not set to face a budget deficit of over SAR 400 bn.

Ex-PM of Qatar to invoke diplomatic immunity in UK torture case: Former prime minister of Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber al-Thani is attempting to use his UK diplomatic immunity to prevent a court case from being heard in London where he is accused of imprisoning and torturing a UK citizen in Qatar for 15 months, the Guardian reports. The case is being pursued by Fawaz al-Attiya, a British citizen who formerly served as Qatar’s official spokesperson. Attiya alleges that al-Thani offered to buy some of Attiya’s land far below its value, which Attiya, leading to a decade-long feud that culminated in Attiya’s dismissal from his post and his alleged detention and extradition from Saudi Arabia to Qatar in 2009. Following this, Attiya alleges he was held in detention incommunicado by HBJ for 15 months in solitary confinement, only taken out for interrogation. Attiya alleges he was only freed at the behest of then crown prince and current emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. (Read)

Former BBC journalist and Institute for War and Peace Reporting staffer Jacky Sutton found hanged in Istanbul airport, friends and family suspect foul play, demand international investigation: Turkish media are reporting that Sutton’s alleged suicide was due to her missing a connecting flight, the Guardian reports. It’s a claim that those who knew her strongly reject. Sutton worked as the the Iraq director for the Institute of War and Peace Reporting. “Friends and colleagues expressed their disbelief about reports in Turkish media that claimed Sutton had taken her own life after becoming distressed when she missed a flight to Iraq and did not have enough money for a new ticket … Sudipto Mukerjee, a country director with the United Nations Development Programme, wrote: ‘Very difficult to believe that my colleague @undpiniraq staffer and seasoned traveler @JackySutton committed suicide.’”


SPOTLIGHT on Turkey

Erdoğan uses the mns of migrants and refugees in Turkey as bargaining chips in bid for EU ascension: Just two weeks away from general elections in Turkey, German Chancellor Angela Merkel paid an official visit to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Istanbul on Sunday, promising Turkey accelerated ascension to the EU in exchange for keeping refugees out of Europe, Reuters reports. “Merkel, who only 10 days ago reiterated her opposition to Turkey joining the EU, said the talks were ‘very promising,’” according to Reuters.

Bloomberg notes that according to recent polls, Merkel’s popularity in Germany has sank to its lowest level in four years, specifically with regard to her open-door policy on migrants and refugees, while “Horst Seehofer, the Bavarian state premier who has called Merkel’s refugee policy a ‘mistake,’ gained 11 points to 39 percent.”

Welcome to do as I say, not as I do: It was only last February when US President Barack Obama, speaking in a joint press conference with Merkel, explained his opposition to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to the US Congress: “As much as I love Angela, if she was two weeks away from an election, she probably would not have received an invitation to the White House, and I suspect she wouldn’t have asked for one.” (Watch, running time: 2:28).

Ahead of the meeting on Sunday, Amnesty International issued a statement that read, in part: “European leaders’ desperate attempts to enlist Turkey as Europe’s gatekeeper are ignoring the manifest failures of the Turkish authorities to respect the rights of refugees and migrants… The EU’s plans push Turkey to strengthen its border controls are also fraught with risks. Amnesty International has documented a number of recent cases of refugees being forcibly returned to Syria and Iraq after being intercepted by Turkish border guards while trying to reach the EU. Others have been arbitrarily detained without access to lawyers.”

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

The press continued their coverage of day two of “Egypt’s Elections without Voters,” as the first round of parliamentary elections have been named in both domestic Arabic and English as well as the international media. Most of the stories are hitting the same notes without much new:

  • Egypt in second day of ‘election without voters’ (Reuters)
  • Narrow Choice for Egyptians in Vote That’s Supposed to Stabilize (Bloomberg)
  • Government scrambles to boost turnout in Egypt poll (FT, paywall)
  • Egypt Vote Is a Sign of Arab Winter (Bloomberg View)

The MFA responded in a statement on the negative tone taken by the foreign press, saying “ anyone with a basic knowledge of Egypt’s political landscape should know that this year’s parliamentary elections are subject to many complex factors. These are linked to the development of political parties, the programs presented by candidates, voters’ awareness, the state of electoral fatigue experienced by Egyptians after participating in eight polls in four years, and finally the absence of the polarization that marred the atmosphere of previous elections. The spokesperson concluded that attempts to portray the parliamentary elections this year as a poll on the extent of popular support for Egypt’s leadership is misguided and misinformed. He also noted that these media outlets have consistently disregarded all positive developments in Egypt.” (Read)

WORTH READING

Harvard Business Review- What You Miss When You Take Notes on Your Laptop: Are you one of those old-fashioned crazies who takes notes or composes their thoughts with pen and paper while your colleagues tap away on their laptops while occasionally shooting you dirty, withering glances as if you have just plopped out of the sky after having travelled from a bygone era? Maggy McGloin of Harvard Business Review cites a study that found “when you only use a laptop to take notes, you don’t absorb new materials as well, largely because typing notes encourages verbatim, mindless transcription.” (Read)

WORTH WATCHING

TED Talk– Taiye Selasi: Don’t ask where I’m from, ask where I’m a local: Is where you’re from simply a matter of where you were born or what passport you carry? Author Taiye Selasi delves into the question of identity, and, in her own words, says: “Don’t ask where I’m from, ask where I’m a local.” When she was younger, identity was always an issue for her, because, “History was real, cultures were real, but countries were invented.” She herself is a study into the modern meaning of identity, coming from Nigerian and Ghanaian descent, born in London, raised in Boston, and living between Rome and Berlin, Selasi proposes a test determine where you’re a local by examining your three R’s. Rituals, Relationships, and Restrictions. (Watch, running time: 16 minutes)

COMING SOON

Steve Jobs, directed by Danny Boyle, (Trainspotting, 28 Days Later) and written by Aaron Sorkin (The West Wing, Sports Night, The Newsroom) and starring Michael Fassbender as Steve Jobs, looks to be an interesting examination of ego in the corporate world and is receiving overall positive reviews. The film was released on 9 October in the United States and, according to El Cinema, is set for release in Egypt on 28 October. (Watch the trailer here, running time: 2:40)

ENERGY

Shell Egypt says more hydrocarbons can be extracted domestically using unconventional techniques
Shell Egypt’s Aidan Murphy says the company will continue to invest to produce oil and gas in Egypt, outlining his company’s five-year plan. Shell, along with its JV Bapetco, believe that “more oil and gas can be extracted through application of advanced horizontal wells, waterflood technology, new completion technologies and also ongoing investment in the maintenance and development of the processing facilities such as Obaiyed and BED-3 as well as new plants such as Assil Karam as processing facility.” Murphy said “Shell has been investigating ‘unconventional resources’ in Egypt since the early 2000s,” but noted that Egypt is still in the very early stages of exploring its oil and gas potential. Shell estimated a number of stranded gas assets in existing concessions and has signed agreements with Apache to test the potential of the fields that, if successful, “will help assess whether the very large gas resources in the Apollonia project can be developed economically.” (Read)

EETC to issue tender for 500 MVA transformer station
The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company is on the verge of issuing a tender for a 500 MVA transformer station in the Gharb El Nil area, at a total cost of EGP 165 mn. The station is meant to distribute the electricity produced from solar power plants to be built in the area, with every four solar plants connected to one of these transformer stations, sources at the Ministry of Electricity to Al Borsa. We had previously reported XD-EGEMAC had signed an agreement with EETC to build four 2,000 MVA transformer stations to similarly accommodate 2,000 MW produced from solar power plants in Aswan at a total cost of EGP 640 mn. (Read in Arabic)

Armed Forces sets aside 1200 feddans in Minya for EUR 150 mn renewable energy projects
The armed forces has agreed to allocate a 1,200 feddan plot of land in Minya’s eastern dessert to build EUR 150 mn renewable energy projects producing 150 MW, the first phase of a proposal by the Egyptian Institute for Wind Power Projects, a local NGO. If completed, the Institute’s proposal would see the establishment of wind and solar power plants producing up to 2.4 GW in the area. 32 companies including Green Tech, Energy Transform, Sun Infinity and Solar Sun are vying for the project. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS + COMMODITIES

Using wastewater in fish farms costs Egypt access to the EU market
Egypt’s use of wastewater in fish farms is costing it access to the European Union, says Ali El Haddad, the head of the General Authority for Fish Resources Development (GAFRD). Egypt is unable to export some 1.1 mn tons of annual surplus production to the EU due to the latter’s import ban, which is pegged to the wastewater issue. He also stressed the need to address logistics issues that see fish spoil on the way to market. (Read in Arabic)

MANUFACTURING

Fire breaks out at Nestle Waters factory in Banha, no injuries reported
Firefighters managed to contain a fire that broke out at a Nestle Waters factory in Banha, Al Shorouk reported. The fire started at a carbon dioxide tank reserved for water treatment, but no casualties were reported and the company ruled out the possibility of foul play. In 2013, a fire broke out at the same plant damaging the production line and causing a bottled water shortage domestically. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

Global Pharma to invest EGP 200 mn to build three production lines
Global Pharmaceuticals announced it plans to invest EGP 200 mn into building three new production lines in its factory in Beni Suef. The company also plans to manufacture antibiotics and eye drops over the coming years, said managing director Gamal Ezz El Deen. He added that the company plans to sell 200K units of Sovaldi-type meds to combat Hepatitis C before the end of the year. (Read in Arabic)

Pharma market grows 12% in 8M2015
Egypt’s pharmaceuticals market grew 12% year-on-year to EGP 20.3 bn in the first eight months of 2015. Novartis led the way, with total sales of EGP 1.66 bn, followed by GSK (EGP 1.62 bn) and Sanofi (EGP 1.125 bn), respectively. The Egyptian International Pharmaceutical Industries Company (EIPCO) and Amoun Pharmaceuticals were the only two Egyptian companies to make it on the top ten, ranking fifth and sixth respectively. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE + HOUSING

NUCA to launch sale of 10K land plots for middle-income families
The New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) is preparing to launch a sale of 10,000 small-sized land plots to retail investors. NUCA hopes the sale will bring in EGP 5 bn, Al Borsa says. The land plots are being offered to retail investors only at present, as disagreements with the Investment Ministry regarding offering land plots to real estate developers in a manner that is compliant with the investment law are yet to be resolved. A dispute between the Housing and Investment ministries had arose after the latter had delayed the offering of 1,500 feddans to real estate development companies, despite the Housing Ministry having completed submitting the required documentation to GAFI last September. (Read in Arabic)

Arab Contractors, Atlas Company extend infrastructure to 1100 feddans in New Tiba
The Arab Contractors and Atlas Company won two separate tenders issued by the New Tiba City Authority to extend infrastructure into 1,100 feddans in New Tiba City. The Arab Contractors won the first tender for 620 feddans, while Atlas won a tender for 480 feddans. The duration of the projects is 12 months from the date of operations, and will be funded by the New Tiba City Authority’s EGP 750 mn budget for the current fiscal year. The land will be used for logistical and housing projects to serve the surrounding four governorates of Qena, Luxor, Aswan, and the Red Sea. (Read in Arabic)

TOURISM

Zaazou meets with Polish ambassador, in talks over lifting travel advisory
Tourism Minister Hisham Zaazou talked about lifting the travel warning to Egypt in a meeting with the Polish Ambassador, Michał Murkociński. Zaazou said Egypt is willing to host an official security delegation from Poland to assess the security situation in Egypt, which he describes as stable and safe. He also hoped that a direct flight route between Egypt and Poland could be re-established. Poland had raised its travel warning to Egyptian Red Sea resorts to the “orange – do not travel” level last July. (Read in Arabic)

Zaazou extends Egypt in our Hearts campaign until 30 April 2016
Tourism Minister Hisham Zaazou extended the Egypt in Our Hearts promotional campaign targeting domestic tourists to 30 April 2016. The Tourism Ministry subsidized 30% of the travel package price for trips under the campaign. (Read in Arabic)

Al Rehab City Authority announces new development strategy
The Al Rehab City Authority announced its future development strategy, which will focus on developing entertainment and community-oriented events in the city. The strategy will set up guidelines for holding festivals and events in the city limits, in an attempt to bring order to the haphazardly organized events such as Open Day. (Read in Arabic)

AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION

GB Auto launches 3S showroom in Suez Governorate
GB Auto launched its 3S showroom in Suez, showcasing all of GB Auto’s Hyundai, Geely and Mazda models, in addition to a spare parts and after-sales service center. According to Al Borsa, the move is part of the company’s plan to expand along the Suez Canal Development Axis. (Read in Arabic)

BANKING + FINANCE

Loan to fund monorail project increased by EGP 1.3 bn following devaluation
The loan offered by a consortium of 10 banks to fund the construction of the monorail project was increased by EGP 1.3 bn, a source told Amwal Al Ghad. The source added that the loan on offer to NUCA could be increased further still if the Egyptian pound continues to lose value. The loan is expected to be finalised and disbursed in 1Q2016. A consortium of Bombardier, Arab Contractors and Orascom Construction was awarded the project, with operations expected to begin in 1Q2016. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

Budget up one point following pound devaluation
The budget deficit is expected to record 1% higher to GDP compared to initial projections following the pound’s most recent devaluation, a source told Al Mal. The loss to the EGP’s value will affect the foreign fiscal dealings of the country in terms of imports and debt repayment. The initial projection was that the government will record a deficit to GDP of 8.9% in FY 2015-16. (Read in Arabic) However, according to Finance Minister, Hani Dimian the fiscal budget will be unaffected by the EGP’s devaluation. (Read in Arabic)

** Further reading in Egypt Politics + Economics: State disenfranchised expats, drove them away from polls, Mahmoud Emara says
Why is the turnout of Egyptians living abroad to vote in the parliamentary elections low? Businessman Mahmoud Emara says the state is to blame. Expatriates do not have any real representation in the parliament, despite calls for such representation. Domestic media outlets have demonised dual nationals and questioned their allegiance to Egypt. This, Emara explains in his Al Masry Al Youm op-ed, disenfranchised Egyptian expatriates and made them dissociate with the electoral process. Emara also calls for the forming of a bureau that provides expedited service for Egyptian expatriates looking to invest at home. (Read in Arabic or the English translation in Egypt Independent)

NATIONAL SECURITY

Egypt to buy Russian choppers for Mistrals: “The Kremlin’s Chief of Staff Sergei Ivanov announced on Monday that Russia will sell Egypt helicopters and other hardware worth over $1 billion to equip the Mistral aircraft carriers Egypt bought from France recently,” Ahram Online reports, citing Russian news agency Sputnik.

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Juhayna posted Q32015 results on Sunday, registering a net profit of EGP 88.2 mn, Reuters reported.

What happens as Iran returns to the global market? IMF Economist Bruno Versailles says, besides a higher volume of oil exports from Tehran, the world should expect lower bilateral trade costs, better access to international financial services, and better FX reserves – boosting Iran’s economy. For the rest of the world, Iran’s return to the oil market is expected to put downward pressure on the oil market, supporting global growth, and opening new trade and investment opportunities in Iran. Iran’s trading partners like some European countries, India, China, and the UAE stand to gain. The losers? Other international oil exporters (Watch, running time 01:14).

Thirteen days of Halloween Day One – Le Manoir du diable [The Devil’s Manor], 1896. While technically the first horror film due to its subject matter, the tone is lighthearted and was meant more to amuse than evoke fear. The short film focuses on two explorers who stumble upon the castle of Mephistopheles. The original film was silent, with music added to the following version. (Watch, running time: 3:22)

BY THE NUMBERS
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QUICK FACT: Egypt’s oil exports fell 40.7% year-on-year in June 2015 to USD 378.1 mn.


USD CBE auction (Sunday, 18 October): 7.9301 (+ 0.10 from Thursday, 15 October)
USD parallel market (Sunday, 18 October): 8.42 (+0.17 from Thursday, 15 October)
EUR : EGP at CBE market rate: Buy: 9.0678 | Sell: 9.0989

EGX30 (Monday): 7,621.67 (+1.11%)
Turnover: EGP 514.5 mn (18% above the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: -14.6%

Foreigners: Net Short | EGP -28.5 mn
Regional: Net Long | EGP +7.2 mn
Local: Net Long | EGP +21.3 mn

Retail: 64.9% of total trades | 60.8% of buyers | 69.0% of sellers
Institutions: 35.1% of total trades | 39.2% of buyers | 31.0% of sellers

Foreign: 10.5% of total | 7.7% of buyers | 13.2% of sellers
Regional: 16.7% of total | 17.4% of buyers | 16.0% of sellers
Domestic: 72.8% of total | 74.9% of buyers | 70.8% of sellers


***
PHAROS VIEW:

A Short Note on the Ongoing Currency Devaluation

The EGP has finally crossed the 8.0 per USD in the official market, which is perfectly in line with our projections published earlier this year. The reaction of the equity market has so far been negative and the selloff has been broad-based, with the exception of selected beneficiaries of a weaker EGP, such as EFG-Hermes (BUY), Oriental Weavers (BUY) and Alex Containers (STRONG BUY recommendation). At this juncture, it is important to note that the CBE has chosen the difficult but categorically appropriate path that should ensure the restoration of medium-term equilibrium in the balance of payments. Given current resources, the alternative option would have been to administer a “mini-recession” to limit the demand for foreign currency. This would have been catastrophic to investor sentiment and corporate operating metrics. Accordingly, while we could attribute the current market reaction to panic and uncertainty, what we are sure of is that the CBE has chosen the path that is consistent with a medium-term recovery. Accordingly, we expect the market to gradually reward these steps particularly when the government announces a concrete and credible plan to fund the balance of payments gap of 2016.
***


WTI: USD 46.15 (+0.57%)
Brent: USD 48.89 (+0.58%)
Gold: USD 1,169.9 / troy ounce (-0.25%)

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MSM: 5,924.0 (flat)

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

Enterprise is available without charge thanks to the generous support of HSBC Egypt (tax ID: 204-901-715), the leading corporate and retail lender in Egypt; EFG Hermes (tax ID: 200-178-385), the leading financial services corporation in frontier emerging markets; SODIC (tax ID: 212-168-002), a leading Egyptian real estate developer; SomaBay (tax ID: 204-903-300), our Red Sea holiday partner; Infinity (tax ID: 474-939-359), the ultimate way to power cities, industries, and homes directly from nature right here in Egypt; CIRA (tax ID: 200-069-608), the leading providers of K-12 and higher level education in Egypt; Orascom Construction (tax ID: 229-988-806), the leading construction and engineering company building infrastructure in Egypt and abroad; Moharram & Partners (tax ID: 616-112-459), the leading public policy and government affairs partner; Palm Hills Developments (tax ID: 432-737-014), a leading developer of commercial and residential properties; Mashreq (tax ID: 204-898-862), the MENA region’s leading homegrown personal and digital bank; Industrial Development Group (IDG) (tax ID:266-965-253), the leading builder of industrial parks in Egypt; Hassan Allam Properties (tax ID:  553-096-567), one of Egypt’s most prominent and leading builders; and Saleh, Barsoum & Abdel Aziz (tax ID: 220-002-827), the leading audit, tax and accounting firm in Egypt.