Thursday, 3 September 2015

Private-sector gas imports from Cyprus, Israel unaffected by Eni’s discovery –Oil Minister

TL;DR

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The Emirates NBD / Markit Purchasing Managers’ Indices for Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia will drop at about 7:30am CLT today . That’s about an hour and a half after we dispatch, so you’ll want to head here to read the release yourself in pdf if you don’t want to wait for Sunday morning’s Enterprise.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is due to conclude his visit to Beijing with China’s commemoration of the end of the Second World War. Coverage of El Sisi’s Wednesday meetings is below in Diplomacy, below. The final stop on his Asian tour: Indonesia

Meanwhile: Labor union demonstrations in protest of the Civil Service Act are scheduled to take place at Fustat Park, Old Cairo, on Saturday, 12 September

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING NEXT WEEK

Summer is over, ladies and gentlemen: The fall conference season kicks off in earnest this week. Highlights from September and October include:

The T20 Innovation in Government conference is due to take place 11-12 October at the Four Seasons Nile Plaza. The two-day gathering will focus on:

  • Innovation in strategies: bringing success stories of how other countries fixed their economies (China, South Korea, Germany and Malaysia)
  • Innovation in recruiting and retaining the best caliber in the executive positions of government (Europe, the U.S., India, South Korea, Singapore and the UAE)
  • Innovation in systems, with a specific focus on e-government solutions (health, education, payment and justice)

The T20 is a group of c. 700 Egyptian alumni of global business schools including Harvard, Stanford and London Business School.

The inaugural N Gage Debate will take place on Tuesday, 13 October, also at the Four Seasons Nile Plaza, with a hands-on focus on how Egyptian companies can move their products and services into Africa through the African Tripartite Free-Trade Agreement. The gathering includes a general conference with headline appearances from public officials and private sector executives with deep knowledge of African trade. A subsequent focus group will cater to those looking for deeper insights into everything from rules of origin to trade in services. The gathering will take place under the Chatham House rules.

MARK YOUR CALENDARS

Egypt looks set to shut down for an extra-long holiday weekend on Tuesday, 22 September, in observance of Eid Al Adha. The wa’fat el-Arafat will take place on Tuesday, with the observance of Eid taking place Wednesday-Friday, inclusive.
LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Wednesday night’s talk shows were slow, but surprisingly enjoyable. The always-entertaining Gaber El Qormoty, host of ONtv’s Manshet, took the opportunity to discuss what is certainly the hottest issue in Egypt today: the Case of the Zero Girl, Maryam Malak.

Malak is a young, academically-gifted student from Minya. In July 2015, she learned that she received score of zero on her thanawiya 3ma exam. Understandably, the news came as a shock to both Maryam and her family, as the academically gifted student had in previous years scored in the ninetieth percentile. Maryam’s brother paid a visit to the Assiut Control, the body responsible for issuing and monitoring exams in Upper Egypt, requesting that he view his sister’s exam. After seeing the exam, the family members claim to have discovered that the documents did not belong to Maryam and in fact were the work of another student, leading the family to file a formal complaint. As part of the investigation, Maryam underwent a series of handwriting exams whose purpose was to ascertain whether the exam belonged to her. On 29 August, a panel of forensic experts announced that the documents were in fact Maryam’s, once again shocking the girl and her family members, who maintain their position. Over the past week, coverage of Maryam’s story has intensified, with media outlets portraying the case as being emblematic of the country’s broken and unjust educational system.

As is his wont, El Qormoty spoke passionately, criticizing the state and the Education Ministry for their reactive handling of the case. “I find it disturbing that the Education minister decided to hold a press conference on the issue of Maryam after her predicament became a national story. This is a huge mistake,” said El Qormoty as beads of sweat raced down his shiny forehead. The host proceed to chide the minister on his lack of sympathy for the student “Are you not capable of showing compassion?” the host asked, addressing the minister. “If you are under the impression that this investigation into Maryam’s case will result in her victory over the state, then you are naive,” said the clearly irked Qormoty. The flamboyant host then made a series of amusing high-pitched noises which served to demonstrate just how ‘naive’ the minister is. A video of El Qormoty’s rant and conclusory high-pitched shrieks is available on Youtube. (Watch in Arabic, running time 1:29)

Meanwhile, CBC’s most soft-spoken talk show host, Khairy Ramadan, criticized Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahlab and the media for their wall-to-wall coverage of the Maryam debacle.

Ramadan: “How is it possible that at a time when one of the largest natural gas discoveries has been made within our territorial waters, the media and government is preoccupied with a discussion on Maryam? Why is the Prime Minister taking the time to speak with a Maryam, who is merely one student among a group of 70 others who are appealing the grades they received on their thanawiya 3mma exam? Is this really a priority of the government? Is it appropriate that the Prime Minister of this country should meet this girl?”

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Private-sector imports of gas from Israel and Cyprus are unlikely to be affected by Eni’s new gas discovery, Oil Minister Sherif Ismail told Reuters. Egypt will look to satisfy local demand first before looking into exporting gas, Ismail added, saying it is unlikely that this target will be reached before 2020. Energy demand domestically is set to grow until a number of the large fields currently being developed, including BG’s 9B wells, begin production. “Eni is expected to deliver a development plan by the end of October detailing the number of wells it will dig, and production [from Zohr] will likely begin at the start of 2018, the minister said. Analysts say this timeline is ambitious and that at least in the short run Egypt may still look to Israel’s Leviathan to fill its natural gas needs,” according to Reuters.

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman is visiting the United States on Friday, with observers “focused with great anticipation on what he says about the nuclear … [agreement] with Iran,” according to Politico. Besides topics of discussion concerning energy, Iran, Syria, and Yemen, Salman is expected to have a discussion about Egypt with POTUS. “What Obama can do, though, is to use the meeting to remind Salman that notwithstanding real qualms about Egypt’s direction, Washington actually has supported al-Sisi … This context should leave Obama well placed to underscore that while Egypt clearly faces real terrorist threats, and the U.S. will help it confront them, the large-scale repression and some of the tactics used in that anti-terrorism campaign will exacerbate the problem in the long run. If Saudi Arabia really wants to show its value to the United States it could help reinforce this message when King Salman travels to Cairo following his visit to Washington,” Politico notes.

Arabtec says there is “no progress regarding the housing project in Egypt,” denying reports that it was only contracted to build the first phase of the project, according to a statement sent to the DFM. Reuters notes that “Arabtec’s size and restructuring at the company over the past year has led some analysts to question whether Arabtec has the resources to deliver all one mn homes by a 2020 deadline.”

GB Auto launches new microfinance subsidiary: GB Auto announced on Wednesday the incorporation of Tasaheel Microfinance, capitalized at EGP 40 mn, according to a company statement. Tasaheel is 90% owned by GB Auto’s financing subsidiary GB Capital and 10% by EQI, a veteran in microfinance. “This exciting new venture will allow us to capitalize on our success of working with reliable partners, with whom we’ve taken Mashroey from the flicker of an idea into a thriving business,” said GB Auto CEO Raouf Ghabbour. Amal Ragheb, Chairman of Tasaheel, is quoted as saying: “We are particularly excited about group lending to microentrepreneurs, especially females. The deployment of capital to this market segment will help increase household income and improve both families’ and communities’ standard of living.” (Read)

Cargill will invest USD 100 mn to double capacity at its soybean crush facility in Borg El Arab, outside Alexandria, the company said in a statement. It is also building an additional 42,000 metric tonnes in storage capacity at its existing Dekheila Port facility. “The expansion at the soybean crush plant will add a 3,000 metric tonne production line to Cargill’s existing facility. It will allow the company to leverage its existing crush capabilities to maximise economies of scale and efficiencies in its production process for both soybean meal and oil,” it said. Construction will begin in November, with the new crush facility due to come online by the end of next year.

Sewedy Electric posted record net earnings in 2Q2015, reporting a bottom line after minority interest of EGP 439 mn on total group revenues of EGP 7.1 bn. In parallel, the company has built its largest-ever turnkey backlog, topping EGP 13.3 bn, Sewedy said in its earnings release (pdf). The company’s turnkey division contributed EGP 3.6 bn to Sewedy’s top line (against EGP 485.6 mn in 2Q2014), more than offsetting weaker pricing at the wire and cable division. Turnkey revenues benefitted from the company’s wins in Egypt’s fast-track program to add power generation capacity to the national grid.

MOVES- The United Bank of Egypt has appointed Farag Abdel Hameed as acting chairmanthrough year’s end, according to media reports. Abdel Hameed, the bank’s deputy chairman and MD, succeedsMohamed Ashmawy, who has stepped down to assume new duties at the Tahya Misr Fund after a nine-year run.

At its weekly cabinet meeting yesterday, the Mahlab government reviewed development proposals for the Shaq Al Thoban area (one of Egypt’s largest marble production zones), including recommendations toredraw the Wadi Delga Natural Reserve borders to build a new road connecting Shaq Al Thoban to Al Ain Sokhna for freight transportation. Ministers also discussed a 1.5 mn acre land reclamation project in Shaq Al Thoban, subject to the Investment Law and Regulations for 2015, to attract investment to the area. The land reclamation project will be established under a new investment company called Management and Development of New Rural Egypt. The company’s shareholders include the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) and the ministries of agriculture, electricity and irrigation. Other notable decisions include:

Economics:

  • Imposing new sanctions on anyone who attempts to operate a commercial outlet previously ordered shut by administrative order. Violators could face up to six months in prison and a fine of EGP 5k-10k. (Al-Ahram and El-Fajr have move).
  • Raising fines 100-fold for individuals found guilty of obstructing traffic. (Read in Arabic)
  • Raising service fees at ports as much as five-fold. (Read in Arabic)
  • Approving recommendations coming out of the first meeting of the Cabinet investment dispute resolution group, held 8 August.
  • Allowing the export of 1 mn tons of rice. (Read in Arabic)

Health Policies:

  • Allowing Vacsera to provide vaccines and sera to the Ministry of Health for the 2015-16 fiscal year. (Read in Arabic)
  • Approving talks between Kafr El Sheikh governorate and EgyCycle on recycling and the production of refuse-derived fuel (RDF).(Read in Arabic)

 

Investment Minister Ashraf Salman signed an MoU with China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) to assess its participation in the Capital Cairo project in cooperation with domestic partners, with Chinese banks providing the funding. CSCEC is expected to act as a developer in the project, Al Masry Al Youm reported.

Shell, Vitol, and Trafigura will be supplying four LNG cargoes to Jordan’s Aqaba import terminal for delivery in September and October, Reuters reported. Egypt had reached an agreement with Jordan to import its excess gas.

Royal Dutch Shell’s “combination” with (read: “takeover of”) BG Group has received unconditional clearance from the European Commission’s antitrust regulator, Shell said in a statement. The Wall Street Journal has more.

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Xi meets Egypt President Sisi -Xinhua: Chinese state-owned news agency Xinhua has cordial coverage of President El Sisi’s first day of his official state visit to China. El Sisi, along with Russian president Vladimir Putin and other world leaders, is in Beijing to attend events commemorating the anniversary of the end of Second World War. The report is otherwise light on the details of what was discussed, other than mentioning cooperation in infrastructure and security. (Read)

Zvi Bar’el’s op-ed in Haaretz on Wednesday criticizes the Israeli leadership for failing to congratulate Egypt on its recent gas find, arguing that despite the Zohr discovery being perceived as largely negative in Israel, the potential natural gas agreement was being rushed and further implies that an export agreement was an awkward fit for both governments and peoples to process. “Al-Sissi stole nothing from Israel, and he can provide it with a neighbor that is in slightly better economic shape than it was before the discovery of gas. That is no small thing.” (Read ‘How Dare Egypt Discover Gas?,’ paywall)

Egypt’s natural gas is destabilizing Netanyahu’s government’ -i24: Israeli news site i24 published an op-ed by Emmanuel Navon, university professor and commentator on foreign affairs, on the impact of Eni’s Zohr gas discovery on Israeli politics in general and on the cohesiveness of Netanyahu’s coalition government in particular. Navon argues “As Netanyahu’s frantic effort to convince 13 Senate Democrats to vote against their president is doomed to fail, the looming debacle over the … [agreement] couldn’t come at a worse time. A double humiliation on Iran’s nuclear program and on Israel’s natural gas is likely to be politically unsustainable.” (Read)

Egypt’s muffling of news media is an outrage,’ Los Angeles Times editorial on the imprisoned Al Jazeera journalists. Expect the usual. (Read)

The Telegraph writes that the UK should support strong leaders such as President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, but not too overtly, it would seem: “The dilemma is evident: we need tough men in the region to stand up to the Islamist threat, but cannot be seen to support the repression that invariably accompanies them. At the very least, there should be no official welcome for President Sisi until the Al Jazeera journalists are released.” (Read)

WORTH READING

‘Hey, Saudi Arabia: Here’s what you can do to help the Syrian refugees’. Editorial by Quartz Managing Editor Bobby Ghosh. “Hands are wringing all across Europe as the flood of refugees from war-ravaged Syria shows no sign of abating. In country after country, immigration policies — as well as infrastructure — have come under scrutiny, and been found wanting. In just the latest outrage, some European leaders have suggested they’d be willing to take Christian refugees, but not Muslims.” However, Ghosh goes on to argue: “Scrutiny should be brought to bear on the policies of governments in the Arabian Peninsula, which have done much less than the nations of Europe to provide shelter to the Syrians.” (Read)

WORTH WATCHING

Waves crashing over the dead body of three-year old Aylan Kurdi, as identified by Turkish media and reported by The Guardian. Kurdi was one of 12 dead Syrians who washed up on the shores of Turkish resort town Bodrum on Wednesday. The refugees were attempting to reach Greece. Kurdi’s five-year-old brother met the same fate. The two boys originate from the Kurdish town of Kobani, the site of intense battles with Daesh. The video is disturbing but is worth watching, even if the outcry over his death changes nothing. (Watch, running time: 1:08) An image of Kurdi (pictured on the left) with his brother when they were still alive may be viewed here.

IMAGE OF THE DAY

Selfie of Mohamed Elshorbagy and Raneem Elweleily, the top male and female squash players in the world, respectively. “How many selfies have you seen of two world number 1 playing the same sport and not just from the same country but also from the same city … We are both in Shanghai for our 1st tournament of the season, wish us luck.” Elshorbagy and Elweleily hail from Alexandria. (View image)

DIPLOMACY

Day two of the president’s visit to China: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi began the second day of his visit to Beijing with a meeting with President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People, according to a statement from Ittihadiya. The leaders inked two agreements, one of which is valued at USD 100 mn between China Development Bank and the National Bank of Egypt to help finance SMEs. A second agreement aims to increase Egypt’s production capacity and level of manufacturing, although the specifics of the agreement were not clear.

El Sisi said Egypt welcomed Chinese investment “and outlined a number of projects where Chinese investors can contribute, particularly the Suez Canal economic zone. The new zone will provide a variety of promising projects for Chinese investors to access markets close to Egypt in the Middle East and Africa. President El Sisi noted that the New Suez Canal project, in addition to the Suez Canal Area Development project and the establishment of six ports, will complement President Xi Jinping’s initiative to revive the ‘Silk Road’ and accommodate the expected increase in maritime traffic,” according to a readout on the meeting provided by Ittihadiya.

El Sisi also met on Wednesday with Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang and Huawei Telecommunication Company’s boss Sun Yafang.

China’s political leadership expressed solidarity with Egypt’s war on terror: Li “praised Egypt for its leading role in the Middle East, as a cornerstone for security and stability in the region. He emphasized China’s strong support for Egypt’s counter-terrorism efforts and noted the importance of the economic aspect in combating terrorism.” Xi, meanwhile, “expressed China’s full support to Egypt’s counter-terrorism efforts and strongly backs Egypt in combating violence and extremism,” Ittihadiya said in a readout.

… Also on Wednesday: President El Sisi, along with the members of his delegation, attended a panel discussion on the development of Egyptian-Chinese business. The president noted that two industrial zones near the ports of Ain El Sokhna and East Port Said are being developed, with an expected date of completion within a year and a half.

Not yet signed: Major economic agreements previously expected to emerge from Beijing. While the USD 100 mn SME financing agreement has come through, some USD 1 bn in funding for sewage projects and Chinese investments in infrastructure projects (rail in particular) are widely anticipated.

UN rapporteur raps Egypt over Al Jazeera English case: The United Nations special rapporteur for freedom of expression David Kaye said in a UN statement on Tuesday that the Al Jazeera retrial verdict “sends a signal that … freedom of expression is not respected in Egypt,” the AP reports. Kaye is a professor of law at the University of California Irvine School of Law.

ENERGY

Supplies Ministry to begin producing biodiesel from cooking oil in Alexandria
Al Mal | 02 Sep 2015
The Supplies Ministry is set to begin implementing a programme to produce biodiesel from cooking oil in Alexandria. The programme has been piloted successfully in Port Said and had produced 500k litres of diesel. The programme allows benefactors of the ration system to return excess cooking to Supplies Ministry outlets and receive financial compensation once it is turned in biodiesel. (Read in Arabic)

INFRASTRUCTURE

Tender issued to develop Al Garah-Siwa road
Al Borsa | 02 Sep 2015
The Western North Coast Development Authority issued a tender to develop the 96 km road connecting Al Garah and Siwa. The estimated cost of the project is EGP 150 mn, EGP 15 mn of which will be paid to the winning bid within this fiscal year, said authority head Ibrahim El Tantawi. The authority has also allocated EGP 50 mn to completing the Siwa-Wahat El Bahareya road which has a total cost of EGP 400 mn. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE + HOUSING

Heliopolis Company given green light to begin development in Merryland Park
Ahram Gate | 02 Sep 2015
The Environmental Affairs Ministry gave the public sector Heliopolis Company for Construction the green light to begin development of a planned underground parking garage, in addition to a new lake and entertainment facilities on a parcel of five acres of rented land within Merryland Park. The Ministry had forced the company to assess the environmental impact of building on the Park’s site. The Ministry had also required the company to preserve the trees onsite as well as install filters for the park’s lakes. Heliopolis Company received criticism for it’s cutting down of trees in the park, which it claimed were carefully replanted elsewhere. Photographs taken by several news outlets, however, showed a number of trees pruned or cut down altogether. (Read in Arabic)

TOURISM

Real estate tax killing touristic establishments -Industry leaders
Al Mal | 02 Sep 2015
Tourism investors have expressed their concerns over imposing real estate tax on touristic establishments, with some calling for it to be postponed until normal growth rates are achieved, and others for it to be cancelled entirely in light of sector also paying a sales and income tax. Elhamy El Zayat, head of the Egyptian Tourism Federation, has called out the Tax Authority and Ministry of Finance to reconsider imposing a real estate tax on touristic real estate, citing occupation rates as low as 2% in hotels in cities like Luxor and Aswan. Hossam El Shaer, president of Blue Sky Travel Group, believes the calculation of the real estate tax is unfair. “A sea-side hotel is given an EGP 10 mn evaluation despite having an annual profit of less than EGP 2 mn,” he said, “while a factory with annual profits of EGP 6-7 mn receives an EGP 2 mn evaluation.” (Read in Arabic)

TELECOMS + ICT

MCIT allocates EGP 1.7 bn to IT industry development
Al Borsa | 02 Sep 2015
The Ministry of Communication (MCIT) has allocated EGP 1.7 bn to developing the IT manufacturing industry until December 2019 as part of its four year plan. The Information Technology Industry Development Authority (ITIDA) recently launched Export IT Program to encourage and promote the exports of CIT. The Ministry aims to increase domestic IT production from EGP 58.3 bn to EGP 150 bn by 2020. (Read in Arabic)

Etisalat slashes internet prices without infrastructure rent cut
Al Masry Al Youm | 02 Sep 2015
Etisalat Egypt announced reduced internet prices on Tuesday that include both capped and unlimited internet. The move comes only one month after TE Data announced it would reduce capped internet prices. The news was welcomed by the youth movement calling for a revolution in internet services, with Etisalat having one-upped TE Data by cutting unlimited internet prices as well as capped internet, a communications expert told Al Masry Al Youm. Mobinil and Vodafone will soon follow, he added. More importantly, the move from Etisalat proves the earlier statement by previous Telecom Egypt CEO Mohamed El Nawawy about there being a high enough profit margin for cutting internet prices without unnecessarily reducing infrastructure rent, the source added. (Read in Arabic)

BANKING + FINANCE

iScore kills planned Nile Credit Rating Company for SMEs
Al Borsa | 02 Sep 2015
iScore has binned plans to establish the Nile Credit Rating Company for SMEs, said Mohamed Kafafy, I-Score’s chairman. iScore had initially intended to launch the subsidiary company this year, after obtaining all necessary permits and paperwork. iScore now says it will instead form a division with the same objective. (Read in Arabic)

OTHER BUSINESS NEWS OF NOTE

Egypt’s climate change action plan to be ready in October, Minister says
Al Shorouk | 02 Sep 2015
Egypt will finalise its plan for the national preparations for climate change in October, Environmental Affairs Minister Khaled Fahmy said. “There is no need to hurry,” Fahmy said noting that Egypt is trying to adopt international best practices. Egypt is working on adapting its development projects to any threats that could arise from climate change, the Minister added. Egypt will be participating UNFCC’s Paris 2015 conference in December. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

Gov’t to form joint-stock company to reclaim 1.5 mn feddans
Al Borsa | 02 Sep 2015
The government intends to create a joint-stock company that will be responsible for reclaiming 1.5 mn feddans. Besides government entities, the company is expected to have other private-sector shareholders and is expected to be inaugurated by 2015’s end. Forming the company should help expedite the project and avoid the entanglement between the multiple entities that would have been involved, Al Borsa says. (Read in Arabic)

Four NCHR members withdraw from meeting over Al Aqrab prison visit
Al Ahram | 02 Sep 2015
National Council for Human Rights (NCHR) members George Ishak, Ragia Omran, Kamal Abbas and Ehsan Abdel Qudoos withdrew from a council meeting in objection over procedures used in the latest visit to Al Aqrab [Scorpion] prison. All three members claimed that they were not informed of the time of the prison visit, allowing the Interior Ministry to film the press conference, and disseminate videos to the media without prior approval within the Council. Omran told Ahram that prisoners’ families confirmed deteriorating prison conditions and violations. (Read in Arabic) Someone had the idea of adding the video of the NCHR’s inspection as a split screen with a similar scene from the 1985 Egyptian film El Baree’ [The Innocent]. No understanding of Arabic is necessary to enjoy the video. (Watch in Arabic , running time: c.3 minutes)

Exemptions to university geographic distribution and transfer rules “unconstitutional”, EOHR says
Al Ahram | 02 Sep 2015
In a statement on Wednesday, the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights (EOHR) criticized the Minister of Higher Education’s statements to exempt a number of admitted university students from geographic distribution and transfer rules under the label “National Considerations” as unconstitutional. EOHR said that the issued exemption list includes children of judges and senior officers, which means that exempted students can attend and transfer to universities outside of their district of residence. Both the final thannawiya amma score and district of residence determine the student’s university and major. EHOR labeled the decision as “discrimination” under Article 53 of the Constitution. (Read the Ahram story or the EHOR statement, both in Arabic.)

** Further reading Egypt Politics & Economics: The Muslim Brotherhood’s social outreach after the Egyptian coup,’ a Brooking working paper by Steven Brooke. Brooke examines the state’s attempts to wrest control of social services provided by the Ikhwan, and argues that any resulting vacuum is vulnerable to be exploited by Salafi jihadists, who may attempt to replicate similar patronage networks in attempts to subvert the state’s authority. Brooke quotes a message sent from the leader of AQAP to his counterpart in Mali: “Try to win them [the population] over through the conveniences of life and by taking care of their daily needs like food, electricity and water. Providing these necessities will have a great effect on people, and will make them sympathize with us and feel that their fate is tied to us. This is what we’ve observed during our short experience [in Yemen].” (Read, pdf)

** Additional reading: Former deputy prime minister Ziad Bahaa El Din argues in an op-ed that protests by police officers and civil servants in contravention of the protest law has in effect voided the law. He argues further that there are no legitimate institutions through which such grievances can be aired and debated. “Just to be clear: this doesn’t mean that the demands of Sharqiya’s policemen are all legitimate or that civil servants’ objections to the new law are all on point … My point is simply that the lack of mechanisms for political debate and discussion is what turns every collective issue into an occasion for resentment, tension, and violence.” (Read Egypt: What causes civil servants and policemen to protest? in Ahram Online, originally appearing in Arabic here in Shorouk)

NATIONAL SECURITY

North Sinai Daesh affiliate Wilayat Sina released a 37-minute video detailing their past attacks on Egyptian security targets as well as displaying the armaments they claim they’ve amassed. DNE reports that the video reveals the group’s possession of Kornet missiles, which they quote security analyst Michael Horowitz describing as being among the most advanced anti-tank missiles in the world. Kornet missiles are believed to have been used against the Egyptian naval vessel hit in July. “If these videos are indeed from Sinai, which it seems they are, then ‘Wilayat Sinai’ may have received some military training, possibly from militants in Iraq or Syria, or maybe even from militants in Gaza,” Horowitz said.

Russia has denied it is selling Ka-52s to Egypt. State arms export agency Rosoboronexport said Egypt has not ordered Kamov Ka-52 “Alligator” attack helicopters, days after the sale was first mentioned, in a report to Russian news agency TASS and as reported by defenceWeb. The news follows word that the United States imposed sanctions against Rosoboronexport on Wednesday for “alleged violations of a nonproliferation and missile technology control regime,” according to Defense News. “These entities were sanctioned based on credible information that they have been involved in the transfer or purchase to or from Iran, North Korea or Syria of goods,” read a statement (pdf) from the US State Department.

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Nothing’s happening here, guys: The CIT Ministry denied that there are any plans for a management shakeup at Telecom Egypt, calling rumours to the contrary as “baseless.” Our TE Data Customer Service Baboon continues to observe and report…

108 would-be parliamentary candidates have completed their pre-campaign physicals, Dr. Hossam Abdelghaffar, spokesman for the Health Ministry, told Al Mal.

BY THE NUMBERS
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FAST FACT: Aswan High Dam provides Egypt with 15 percent of its energy supply every year.


USD CBE auction (Tuesday, 1 September): 7.7301 (unchanged since Sunday, 05 July)
USD parallel market (Monday, 31 August): 8.02 (+0.02 from Thursday, 27 August)

EGX30 (Wednesday): 7,150 (-0.7%)
Turnover: EGP 433.8 mn (7% below the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: -19.9%

Foreigners: Net short | – 35.8 mn EGP
Regional: Net long | + 15.6 mn EGP
Local: Net long | + 20.2 mn EGP

Retail: 70.4% of total trades | 75.1% of buyers | 65.7% of sellers
Institutions: 29.6% of total trades | 24.9% of buyers | 34.3% of sellers

Foreign: 10.4% of total | 6.4% of buyers | 14.4% of sellers
Regional: 8.7% of total | 10.5% of buyers | 7.0% of sellers
Domestic: 80.9% of total | 83.1% of buyers | 78.6% of sellers


** PHAROS VIEW:

A Screaming Buy bolstered by Eni’s natural gas discovery: South Valley Cement

South Valley Cement plans to add c. 1.6-1.7 MTPA in additional capacity to its existing 1.5 MTPA facility in Beni Suef by 2017. The company has signed an agreement with Sinoma CDI to execute the project. In addition to its fully-owned integrated facility in Beni Suef, South Valley Cement also owns a 47.6% non-controlling stake in Building Materials Industries Company (BMIC), a 1.8 MTPA integrated cement mill located in Assiut governorate in Upper Egypt.

Back in June 2015, we highlighted SVC as a deep value opportunity given the sharp deviation between the market-based EV/ton (in USD terms) and between the current cost of establishing similar mills in Africa. Back then, the firm’s market cap stood at EGP 2,258.2m. Today, it stands more than 16% lower. What’s more: In addition to its cement assets, the firm owned EGP 1,147.5m worth of listed and unlisted investments as of end Q1-15. If we value these investments at 0.75x of its book value, the FV estimate of these investments alone would stand at EGP 860.6m. By any yardstick, its current share price of EGP 3.90 is a bargain.

The bottom line: The weakening in cement prices over the last few months due to the ramp-up in capacity across the market shouldn’t blind investors shouldn’t lose track of South Valley’s deep value. Egyptian cement firms will likely continue to benefit from 1) the plunge in coal prices globally and 2) the expected recovery in infrastructure projects post Eni’s natural gas discovery — exactly the moment at which South Valley’s new capacity should come online. Click here to delve deeper into the math of this “screaming buy.”

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Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

Enterprise is available without charge thanks to the generous support of HSBC Egypt (tax ID: 204-901-715), the leading corporate and retail lender in Egypt; EFG Hermes (tax ID: 200-178-385), the leading financial services corporation in frontier emerging markets; SODIC (tax ID: 212-168-002), a leading Egyptian real estate developer; SomaBay (tax ID: 204-903-300), our Red Sea holiday partner; Infinity (tax ID: 474-939-359), the ultimate way to power cities, industries, and homes directly from nature right here in Egypt; CIRA (tax ID: 200-069-608), the leading providers of K-12 and higher level education in Egypt; Orascom Construction (tax ID: 229-988-806), the leading construction and engineering company building infrastructure in Egypt and abroad; Moharram & Partners (tax ID: 616-112-459), the leading public policy and government affairs partner; Palm Hills Developments (tax ID: 432-737-014), a leading developer of commercial and residential properties; Mashreq (tax ID: 204-898-862), the MENA region’s leading homegrown personal and digital bank; Industrial Development Group (IDG) (tax ID:266-965-253), the leading builder of industrial parks in Egypt; Hassan Allam Properties (tax ID:  553-096-567), one of Egypt’s most prominent and leading builders; and Saleh, Barsoum & Abdel Aziz (tax ID: 220-002-827), the leading audit, tax and accounting firm in Egypt.