Sunday, 12 February 2023

PM — Who’s more influential, Beyoncé or The Renaissance?

TL;DR

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TONIGHT

Good afternoon, wonderful people. It’s thus far a calmer-than-expected start to the news week, but we know better than to think this lull will last long.

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Five banks get ratings downgrade, outlook upgrade from Moody’s: Moody’s downgraded the long-term local currency deposit ratings for the National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, and CIB to B2 from B3, while AlexBank was downgraded to B2 from B1, the ratings agency said. The agency changed its local currency deposit outlook for all five banks to positive from stable.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD

Survivors continue to be found in Turkey and Syria, reports the foreign press, as the death toll rises above 28k, making it the deadliest natural disaster in more than 90 years in both countries. The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters has noted the high fatality rate of earthquakes due to the difficulty in predicting when and where they will hit, and that most occur in low-income countries with already vulnerable populations.

Coverage is turning to report on the after effects of the earthquake, including the presence of looters, spread of disease among survivors and the detention or arrest of as many as 95 people in Turkey regarding the soundness of buildings that collapsed. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pledged to rebuild more than 100k homes within a year, as more than 1.1 mn people are living in temporary accommodation centers in Turkey, with 80k in hospital. Reuters, the Financial Times and the Washington Post all have updates on the story.

HAPPENING NOW- President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi is heading to Dubai to attend the World Government Summit, where Egypt is the guest of honor, according to an Ittihadiya statement. The president is leading a high-level government delegation that will participate in the Davos-like gathering, which will see policymakers from around the world discuss global trends, according to Emirati state news agency WAM. El Sisi is set to meet with senior officials at regional and global financial and economic organizations during the summit, according to the statement.


** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

  • More stake sales in military-owned firms coming? The government is “ready” to offer up stakes in all military-owned firms as part of the state privatization program and partner with private-sector players, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said.
  • Abou Ghaly will introduce Geely EVs to the local market. The catch: If you want one you’ll need to pay in USD through Abou Ghaly’s freezone company in Alexandria.
  • Food prices hit record high on January devaluation. Inflation jumped to 25.8% y-o-y in January, hitting a fresh five-year high on the back of a record increase in food prices due to the devaluation of the EGP.

enterprise

*** It’s Inside Industry day — your weekly briefing of all things industrial in Egypt. Inside Industry focuses each Sunday on what it takes to turn Egypt into a manufacturing and export powerhouse, ranging from initial investment and planning to product distribution, through to land allocation to industrial processes, supply chain management, labor, automation and technology, inputs and exports, regulation and policy.

In today’s issue: As the Madbouly Cabinet mulls rolling out pricing frameworks for strategic commodities in a bid to tamp down inflation, manufacturers weigh in on what mandatory pricing would mean for industry.

???? WE HAVE TWO CALENDARS NOW- Our Weekend Edition and EnterprisePM calendar (at the bottom of this email) include a full rundown interesting events coming up in Cairo, from art exhibitions to concerts and marathons.

Find our regular business calendar, which includes a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers, in EnterpriseAM and on the web.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- It’s going to be chilly this week, with daytime highs of 17°C through Friday, according to our favorite weather app, before the mercury breaks back past 20°C a week from today. Look for overnight lows in the 7-10°C range in the capital city all week.

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FOR YOUR COMMUTE

Chinese tech giants riding the ChatGPT trend: Tech giants Alibaba and Baidu have both banked on the buzz around Microsoft’s OpenAI ChatGPT and made announcements last week about their own AI models, Reuters reports. OpenAI is not available to users in China, Hong Kong, Iran, Russia, and parts of Africa including Egypt — though some people are able to get around these restrictions with the help of virtual private networks and international phone numbers.

The tech behind ChatGPT is gaining traction in China: Several Chinese companies are using ChatGPT’s underlying technology to improve their users’ experiences in myriad ways. The Shenzhen-based Proximai — which provides AI capabilities to the Aerospace community — took advantage of ChatGPT’s tech to debut a virtual character into its social app, the newswire reports.


The English Premier League buys its way to the top: English football clubs spent a record-breaking EUR 830 mn during the January transfer window — nearly double the previous record — indicating the Premier League’s growing financial sway over the most watched sport in the world, the Financial Times reports. In fact, nine of the top 10 European-club spenders this season are from England. Chelsea, for example, spent more money than the top clubs in Italy, Spain, Germany, and France combined.

And the European leagues are not pleased. The large size of spending on seasonal transfers adds fuel to the fire that some European leagues have already started by saying that the top English clubs have gotten an unfair advantage from looser financial rules — especially after the Premier League accused the incumbent champion, Manchester City, of more than a hundred financial violations. The English Premier League’s overspending in the transfer markets is “dangerous” and “can jeopardize the sustainability of European football,” chief of Spain’s La Liga Javier Tebas told the FT. Smaller European leagues are also protesting the game’s “broader inequalities,” which are mostly caused by the Premier League's financial power making its clubs grow while other European clubs shrink.

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ENTERPRISE RECOMMENDS

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-
(all times CLT)

A satirical look at the history of human civilization: In the five-part mockumentary Cunk on Earth, Diane Morgan reprises her role as the perfectly clueless presenter Philomena Cunk, who asks hard hitting questions like: Which had a greater impact on society — the Renaissance or Beyoncé’s Single Ladies? Cunk obviously isn’t the brightest bulb in the box, but she does meet with top academics in her quest to learn about the history of civilization from the Stone Age to the present. Her journey takes her from the Pyramids of Giza to the Great Wall of China, where she wanders aimlessly, asking ridiculous, yet hilarious questions and drawing analogies based on debunked myths and cliches. The experts, on the other hand, provide insightful nuggets of information on the various historical periods covered. This show is perfect for history buffs looking for a good laugh.

Gameweek 23 of the English Premier League continues today with Leeds v Manchester United at 4pm and Manchester City v Aston Villa at 6:30pm.

Barcelona continues the Spanish league title race: The Catalans, who haven’t taken home the La Liga title in three years, will face a new challenge when they face Villarreal at 10pm to try to snag it back. Barcelona is currently at the top of the league, with a comfortable eight-point lead over second-place Real Madrid, last season’s title holder.

Also in La Liga today:

Getafe v Rayo Vallecano (3pm)

Celta Vigo v Atletico Madrid (5:15pm)

Valladolid v Osasuna (7:30pm)

The most notable Italian and German league matches:

Hertha Berlin v Monchengladbach (4:30pm)

Cologne v Eintracht Frankfurt (6:30pm)

Juventus v Fiorentina (7pm)

Naples v Cremonese (9:45pm)

And it’s Gameweek 18 in the Egyptian Premier League: Ceramica Cleopatra will face Al-Masry at 6pm.

???? EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Express your artistic side while indulging in some comfort food: Il Pennello Ceramic Cafe offers its patrons a range of ceramic pieces and dozens of paint colors — and lets them get to work creating a masterpiece to work up an appetite. The menu gives a range of options, starting with a breakfast menu with many of the usual suspects (we enjoyed the Croque Monsieur and Vegetable Omelet), as well as lunch and dinner options that include pizza, pasta, and seafood. The restaurant also serves alcoholic beverages, should you be inclined to sip on a drink to let your artistic skills flow. Il Pennello has branches in Maadi, Heliopolis, and Sheikh Zayed.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-
(all times CLT)

“An Archive of Love”: Digitent’s Cairo Photo Week exhibition Middle East Archive continues to run until this Saturday, 18 February at The Hanger in Downtown Cairo. The curated collection of photographs is “a sincere visual exploration and celebration of love in the Middle East and North Africa.” Get tickets to Cairo Photo Week here.

Art Cairo is still going on at the Grand Egyptian Museum until this Tuesday, 14 February. The art fair will feature more than 30 international galleries from around the Middle East.

Dust off your dancing shoes for an Afro Jazz Beginners Course with Mako Ruan at the ‎Cairo Contemporary Dance Center from 7-8 pm this Thursday.

Get in shape to participate in TriFactory’s Saqqara Pyramid Race this Friday, 17 February. The race is part of their Race Through History series, and you can choose between two distances: 5 km and 10 km (both are one-lap race courses timed using the MyLaps timing system).

Fun Nation is taking over standup comedy night at Room Art Space New Cairo this Saturday, 18 February at 9pm, with this lineup of local comedians, Waleed Al Tourky, Shehab Al Ashry, Ahmed Hossam, Waleed Mostafa and Waleed Abo Almagd.

Don’t miss Omar Khairat's concerts at 8pm next Monday and Tuesday, 20 and 21 February in the Main Hall of the Cairo Opera House.

We’re two weeks away from Kevin Hart’s standup comedy show in Cairo next Tuesday, 21 February. Some ticket categories are still available here.

Catch Cirque du Soleil’s OVO next month: The event features 100 performers taking the stage with their acrobatic acts. OVO will host 16 shows between 8-18 March at Cairo international Stadium Hall, courtesy of real estate developer Madinet Nasr for Housing and Development (pdf).

Head to the She Crafts bazaar on 24 and 25 February at the Grand Nile Tower Hotel in Garden City anytime between 12-8 pm. The bazaar aims to help women market their products and become more financially independent.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

Dive into the historical fantasy world of Victory City, Salman Rushdie’s first novel to be published since an assassination attempt on his life in August of last year, is one of the most anticipated books of the year. Framed as the translation of a fictional Sanskrit epic set in 14th century India, the story follows the 250-year life of nine-year-old Pampa Kampana, who witnesses the death of her mother and consecutively becomes a vessel for a Goddess, who grants her special powers. Kampana, a sorceress and poet, plays an important role in the rise of Bisnaga, a great city born of magical seeds. The story, which was inspired by the history of Vijayanagar, a medieval Hindu Kingdom in the south of India, depicts how powerlust destroys civilizations. The 75-year-old Booker Prizewinning author has said that he will not be promoting his new novel, which he wrote before the attack that left him incapacitated in one hand and blind in one eye.

GO WITH THE FLOW

The EGX30 fell 1.9% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 1.8 bn (3.6% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is up 18.4% YTD.

In the green: e-finance (+3.2%), Ezz Steel (+3.1%) and Elsewedy Electric (+2.2%).

In the red: CIB (-4.7%), Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (-4.3%) and Mopco (-3.7%).

industry

What the gov’t’s indicative pricing for strategic commodities means for industrial players: At the end of last year, the Supply Ministry announced it will roll out a “fair price” list for several strategic commodities amid soaring inflation, in a bid to control price gouging. The indicative pricing — which Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy stressed would not be a form of price controls — is set to be imposed on 15 commodities as a starting point. Meanwhile, the Senate is currently debating a separate proposed bill that would impose price controls on basic commodities for a controlled period until market volatility subsides and prices begin to cool down. Industry players Enterprise spoke with are divided on the effectiveness of indicative or mandatory pricing frameworks on keeping market prices in check, but all agree that ensuring the availability of raw materials is the most important variable.

REFRESHER- Annual urban inflation hit 25.8% y-o-y in January, marking a fresh five-year high. Food and beverage prices were once again the biggest driver of consumer price inflation, rising 48.0% y-o-y in January, according to Capmas figures. The government has been working to tamp down food inflation for the past several months, extending until at least mid-March a cap on the price of rice, in addition to previously setting partial caps on the price of unsubsidized bread.

Manufacturers are coping with shortages and other cost pressures: Although there was no consensus among manufacturers and retailers we spoke with on the efficacy of indicative or mandatory pricing, all of our sources agreed that manufacturers are still struggling with shortages of materials. Between supply chain snarls, soaring international prices of commodities, rising shipping costs, and recent FX difficulties here in Egypt, manufacturers are coping with several pressure points at the same time, our sources said. These issues are all raising input costs, which forces manufacturers to raise market prices, they said.

Not all industries are equally affected, our sources noted, with head of the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce’s oil division Ayman Korra pointing to vegetable oils. Vegetable oils are already subject to “strong” government oversight since oils are among the subsidized goods offered to some 70 mn citizens through their ration cards, which ensures that prices remain in check, Korra said. The Madbouly government has also been working to localize the vegetable oil industry as part of its broader localization drive, with several industrial complexes in the pipeline, we reported in a previous edition of Inside Industry.

But some industries do need a heavier regulatory hand, sources suggest: The poultry industry — which has seen market prices spiral over the past several months — must be subject to price controls, suggests Egyptian Poultry Association member Abdel Aziz El Sayed. The government should create a technical committee with producers to set a pricing scheme every 10 days or so based on the price of feed, as well as the cost of production and labor, while setting an income margin, he suggested. Feed prices have jumped to EGP 23k, from EGP 6.2k previously, which El Sayed suggests can be addressed through the same pricing committee allowing feed prices to change only to reflect fluctuations in FX rates.

And there are some industries that want to shake off price controls: Pharma players are trying to ease price controls imposed on the sector, particularly on “strategic” pharma products, in light of rising costs, head of the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce’s meds division Ali Auf told Enterprise. “Egypt is the only country in the world with a pricing committee for pharma products,” Auf said, explaining that companies need to submit formal paperwork to the Health Ministry committee to request product repricing.

Industry players suggest that a better solution to rising market prices would be to kickstart production at idle factories, which would help address the persistent supply and demand imbalance. “Resolving the idle factory crisis would help increase the availability of commodities and provide enough supply of all commodities,” head of the Tenth of Ramadan Investors Association Samir Aref told Enterprise. There are currently some 400 idle factories in the Tenth of Ramadan industrial zone alone due to different issues, Aref said.

There has already been some gov’t measures on that front: The government is pushing through new industrial licenses, after some 6k factories were waiting on approvals and licenses to begin operating, our sources told us. The Madbouly Cabinet recently awarded the single approval “golden license” to several large industrial projects and the General Authority for Freezones and Investment (GAFI) is currently evaluating proposals to expand the licenses offered to investors to include diamond and silver-tiered licenses that would be issued depending on each sector’s priorities, GAFI head Hossam Heiba previously told Enterprise.

Other steps industry players want to see: Encouraging consumers to purchase locally produced goods, rather than imported products, while quickly releasing new shipments of input materials from customs would go a long way towards increased local production to meet demand, Federation of Egyptian Industries Mohamed El Bahey tells us. With higher rates of local production and increased market competition, price controls would likely prove unnecessary and the government could simply play a regulatory role in monitoring distribution chains, El Bahey suggests. If the government does impose mandatory pricing, it must be done following careful studies of local industries and production costs, or else it would be seriously detrimental to investment and production levels, Korra says.

THE ENTERPRISE ENTERTAINMENT CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

7 February-1 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): Zāt exhibition, Safarkhan Art Gallery, Zamalek.

8-18 February (Wednesday-Saturday): Cairo Photo Week, Downtown Cairo.

11-14 February (Saturday-Tuesday): Art Cairo, the Grand Egyptian Museum, Giza.

15 February-2 March (Wednesday-Thursday): Naguib Mahfouz Festival, Zawya Cinema, Downtown Cairo.

16 February (Thursday): Afro Jazz Beginners Course with Mako Ruan from 7-8 pm, ‎Cairo Contemporary Dance Center.

17 February (Friday): TriFactory’s Saqqara Pyramid Race, Giza.

18 February (Saturday): Fun Nation’s standup comedy night at 9pm, Room Art Space New Cairo on Saturday 18 February at 9pm.

20-21 February (Monday-Tuesday): Omar Khairat performs live at 8pm on 20 and 21 February in the Main Hall of the Cairo Opera House.

24 February (Friday): Hamza Namira performs at The Marquee in Cairo Festival City, New Cairo.

24-25 February (Friday-Saturday): She Crafts bazaar from 12-8 pm, the Grand Nile Tower Hotel, Garden City.

MARCH

8-18 March: Cirque du Soleil’s OVO, Cairo international Stadium Hall.

23 March (Wednesday): First day of Ramadan (TBC). Maghreb will be at 6:08pm CLT.

APRIL

16 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter

17 April (Monday): Sham El Nessim.

22 April (Saturday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

25 April (Tuesday): Sinai Liberation Day.

27 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC).

MAY

1 May (Monday): Labor Day.

4 May (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC).

JUNE

10 June (Saturday): Thanaweya Amma examinations begin.

28 June-2 July (Wednesday-Sunday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

30 June (Friday): June 30 Revolution Day.

JULY

18 July (Tuesday): Islamic New Year.

20 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

23 July (Sunday): Revolution Day.

27 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day.

SEPTEMBER

26 September (Tuesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

28 September (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

OCTOBER

6 October (Friday): Armed Forces Day.

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

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