EnterprisePM — The IMF and UNCTAD keep the reports rolling in.

Good afternoon, ladies and gents, and welcome to the second-to-last day of the workweek before we slide into our final long weekend of 2021. The nation will be off this Thursday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday, which was yesterday.

THE BIG STORY TODAY: There are a handful of stories vying for your attention here at home, including the Sovereign Fund of Egypt signaling it plans to ink agreements with a private sector player to overhaul the Mogamaa by the end of this month, as well as Orascom Construction eyeing a few Sawiris family-owned companies for acquisition. Meanwhile, the barrage of reports and outlooks continues as the IMF releases its Regional Economic Outlook report and we have fresh FDI figures, courtesy of UNCTAD’s latest Investment Trends Monitor.

^^ We’ll have chapter and verse on these stories and more in tomorrow’s edition of EnterpriseAM.

HAPPENING NOW-

El Sisi talks energy, tourism, transport cooperation with Cypriot + Greek leaders: Trilateral cooperation on energy, electricity, tourism and transport sectors were at the top of the agenda at a summit in Athens this morning between President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Ittihadiya said in a statement. Prior to the summit El Sisi met with each of the officials individually: With Mitsotakis, he discussed enhancing bilateral relations between the two countries, while regional developments and other issues of mutual interest were the main talking points with Anastasiades. This meeting comes shortly after Egypt signed MoUs with Greece and Cyprus to link electricity grids via an undersea cable.

Yes, everyone felt that earthquake. At around 7:30am, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre tweeted that an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.4 hit Greece’s Rhodos island and was felt by a number of cities in the eastern Mediterranean. The earthquake was felt in Nicosia, Beirut, and Cairo along with other Egyptian cities and the region around southern Turkey’s Antalya, according to Reuters. Aftershocks are not out of the question: Despite a Greek seismologist telling Reuters that we shouldn’t expect any, Gad El Qady, head of Egypt’s National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics told local media that earthquakes with that strength are usually followed by more minor aftershocks (watch, runtime: 5:50).

Wall Street looks set to open in the green and European benchmarks are (just barely) clinging to their gains for the day.

WATCH THIS SPACE- Foreign investment in the country’s oil industry was down about 26% in the state’s 2020-2021 fiscal year, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla said earlier this week at the same time as the central bank released its balance of payments report. The question as yet unasked: The oil and natural gas industries rely on constant exploration to do everything from replenish reserves to bring new fields and well into production. The dip in investment coincided with the peak of covid-19 uncertainty — both in terms of negative oil prices (a catalyst for slashed exploration budgets) and delays to projects that would have gone ahead anyway. It could be months yet before the knock-on effects really become apparent.

A TWITTER THREAD TO THINK ON- A region-wide drought that has some scientists and activists suggesting we’re in the middle of the worst water shortage in 900 years. The thread’s author is Ali El Saffar, who runs programs for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Energy Agency.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- It’s one of those days where the big story abroad barely merits a footnote (for now) here in Egypt, with both the Financial Times and CNBC covering Brussels’ vow to punish Poland for “challenging the supremacy of EU law.” We say “for now” in reference to it being a footnote because this is exactly the type of story that could, for example, accelerate the fraying of ties in the EU, one of our most important trade, tourism and investment partners.

The supply chain shortage continues to fuel price increases, with Procter & Gamble saying this morning that “the marker of Tide detergent and Gillette razors … would start charging more for certain beauty, oral care and grooming products such as razors,” the Wall Street Journal says in its lead story.

North Korea launches missile in latest weapons test: North Korea fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from its east coast this morning, rattling its neighbors, Reuters reported citing a statement from the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff. The news comes as tensions remain high in parts of Asia after China rattled its saber over the “reunification” of Taiwan.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• ECA poking into M&As again: ​​​​The Egyptian Competition Authority is not happy that a number of mergers and acquisitions have taken place without it being notified.
• British outfit Willis Towers Watson is looking to acquire two unnamed ins. brokerages operating in Egypt as part of a regional expansion plan.
• EgyptAir Holding Company will now be able to take out a long term, EGP 5 bn loan from state owned banks backed by the Finance Ministry.

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FOR TOMORROW-

Trading of e-Finance shares on the EGX officially begins tomorrow under the ticker EFIH, the state-owned fintech platform and payments infrastructure provider’s Chairman and CEO Ibrahim Sarhan and the EGX confirmed. The retail component of the IPO officially closed on Sunday 61.4x oversubscribed. Shares will open at EGP 13.98 each, meaning the IPO is worth about EGP 5.8 bn (USD 367 mn).

Tomorrow is also the last day EBRD Vice President of Banking Alain Pilloux will be in town as part of a visit that kicked off earlier this week. Pilloux is here for a series of high-level meetings (pdf).

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Two days left until the Cairo International Furniture Show, Le Marche. The four-day event runs from this Thursday, 21 October until next Sunday, 24 October. It is the first and largest furniture, material and home accessories exhibition in the region.

Fall conference season is still going strong. Among the exhibitions and business events here and throughout the region:

• The GITEX Global at the Dubai World Trade Center is on its third day today and runs through this Thursday. The event brings together players in Big Tech to discuss what’s next in areas such as AI, cloud, 5G, cybersecurity, blockchain, and more.
• Cairo Water Week begins next Sunday, 24 October. The annual event will wrap next Thursday, 28 October.
• The two-day Intelligent Cities Exhibition & Conference takes place next Wednesday and Thursday, 27 and 28 October.
• Later this month: The Middle East Angel Investment Network is hosting its Angel Oasis in El Gouna on 27-29 October, with separate pricing for in-person and virtual attendance.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Continued highs of 28°C and lows of 18°C are forecast for tomorrow and Thursday, with some clouds expected on the last day of the short work week before the sun comes out to play for the long weekend, according to our favorite weather app.

Who’s picking up the bill for the green transition? Developing nations say it should be rich countries. Wealthy nations are already falling short of their promise under the 2015 Paris Agreement to spend USD 100 bn annually to address climate change in poorer countries. But now the bill could be going up: The African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change (AGN), of which Egypt is a member, has agreed that its member states’ environment ministers will go to Glasgow with a demand for USD 1.3 tn from richer countries every year from 2030 to fund the continent’s green transition, the WSJ reports ahead of the UN’s landmark COP26 climate conference in November.

Why should rich governments be on the hook? The first argument is a moral one: Developed nations built their wealth on the back of unfettered access to cheap fossil fuels, and so should lend a helping hand to developing countries if they are to be denied that same chance. The second is purely pragmatic: While emissions are falling in Europe and the US, they continue to rise in poorer countries that simply cannot afford to invest in clean energy — and the looming climate meltdown will not respect borders.

Can’t the private sector step in? Not all green infrastructure projects generate revenue (think seawalls or training farmers on new crops), making them of no interest to investors. Where earnings can be made — for example in green energy — private investment has lagged behind government funding as investors shy away from the high risks. The UN’s flagship Green Climate Fund attempts to address the problem by absorbing the riskiest part of a project’s financing in order to leverage massive private buy-in. This is the model that helped build Egypt’s Benban solar park and Suez wind farms, the WSJ notes (and plenty of other Egyptian green projects, including from the EBRD under its GCF-GEFF framework). But attempts to scale up the GCF have been bogged down by infighting and drama for years: “The work environment in the fund is very adversarial,” Egyptian diplomat and GCF board member Wael Aboulmagd told the WSJ.

Mass polluters caught on (satellite) camera: Satellite images are increasingly being used to detect unreported methane leaks and emissions, the WSJ reports. Governments, environmental NGOs and private companies have been stepping up their use of satellites to track pollution in recent years — a move that has led some countries, including China, to complain of a “name and shame” culture that could turn legitimate concerns into a diplomatic stick with which states can beat their rivals.

Move aside, stocks. Football club-fund programs are all the rage now: From Goldman Sachs and Macquarie to Apollo Private Equity, a number of financial institutions are eager to take part in the EUR 7 bn pandemic relief fund created by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA), the FT writes, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter. The fund will target the top teams that participate in UEFA's competitions, with the aim of making it available to the largest number of clubs possible. European clubs have been struggling financially due to the pandemic, forcing stadium closures and fan-less matches, which has led to EUR 9 bn in foregone revenues. The association is looking to raise an initial EUR 2 bn before expanding and reaching its EUR 7 bn target.

2 mn mabrouk: Jennifer Gates, daughter of Microsoft founder Bill Gates and Egyptian-American equestrian Nayel Nassar tied the knot at a USD 2 mn celebration, reportedly following a small Muslim ceremony in New York over the weekend.

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-

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From the director behind the drama Carol and Bob Dylan fictionalized biopic I’m Not There comes new documentary The Velvet Underground, about the unconventional band that rose to rock-n-roll fame out of New York’s avant-garde scene in the 1960s. Once defined by their iconoclastic sensibility, the band and its dark star frontman Lou Reed crafted a distinctive sound that continues to exert influence over mainstream rock and pop. Meanwhile, the banana painted by Andy Warhol (an early Velvet Underground manager) for the band’s debut album is an icon in its own right. Lacking any available concert footage, director Todd Haynes draws heavily from experimental film shot by Warhol to tell the story of the anti-establishment band whose name became synonymous with 20th-century cool. Catch the doc on Apple TV+.

⚽ Are you ready for a night of champions? Football reaches peak excitement tonight with the return of UEFA Champions League matches. Club Brugge and Manchester City face off at 6:45pm, at the same time as Besiktas and Sporting Lisbon will hit the field. At 9pm, the league has a stacked lineup: Atletico Madrid v. Liverpool, Shakhtar Donetsk v. Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain v. Leipzig, Porto v. Milan, Ajax v. Borussia Dortmund, Inter v. Sheriff.

???? EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Don Paolo opened on Maadi’s Road 218 over the summer with an impressive array of authentic pizzas, pastas and desserts, all made in-house with fresh Italian ingredients. The open kitchen means you can watch the chefs at work as they load up the pizza oven, or choose to dine al fresco in the seating area out front. We recommend the gnocchi, as well as anything with seafood. It’s open from 12pm to 1am — and if you can’t drag yourself away from The Velvet Underground, you can order in.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-

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Medrar’s 10th Cairo Video Festival ends tomorrow, but you can still catch the closing party at Cairo Jazz Club from 9pm tonight. Keyboardist Abo Sahar will join producer Kubbara to play out the festival with a mix of electric, hip hop, and mahraganat.

The Downtown Contemporary Arts Festival (D-CAF) continues until Friday, with tomorrow seeing the first performance of French-Syrian play The One Who Lived in the House Before Me at Rawabet Art Space at 8pm. The 60-minute play brings to life the work of Cairo-based Syrian poet Rasha Omran in the original Arabic and in French, with the writer also performing on stage.

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

It’s publication day for John Grisham, the master of the “legal thriller” (not even he is sure where the term came from) and easily the most underrated modern American writer. The Judge’s List zeroes in on a judge who may be a serial killer — in a land in which judges are elected, not appointed. Grisham rarely misfires and his prose has only improved as his career has continued. Fans and newcomers alike will enjoy this interview with the New York Times, published ahead of today’s book release: John Grisham on judges, innocence and the judgments he ignores.

OUR ANALYST OF THE WEEK- Hadeel El Masry, associate director at Arqaam Capital (Linkedin).

My name is Hadeel El Masry and I’m an associate director at Arqaam Capital. I graduated from economics at AUC in 2013 and during my time at university I undertook several internships at CI Capital. I fell in love with the stock market and how dynamic and interesting it is. You know all the financial, political, and macro news locally and abroad and link it together. After graduation I joined Pharos as an asset management analyst and was taught a lot by my manager Mahitab Orabi and my colleague Mohamed El Menyawi while my position allowed me to cover several stocks in different sectors. In 2017, I moved to Arab African Investment Holding for three years mainly working with Shimaa El Nemr. She taught me the importance of having a good market sense and how to apply everything we’ve done in the models into decision making.

My entry into research was a brief stint at Renaissance Capital, where I was working with Ahmed Hafez. I then got my position at Arqaam Capital in 2019 and now I cover consumers and healthcare in Egypt, as well as a few F&B names in the GCC. Working in research was very different from asset management. Talking with clients was new to me, especially since I was used to being the client [laughs]. But my previous experience gave me a sense of what I should say — and how. My current boss, Jaap Meijer, taught me a lot about how to value companies and what questions to ask to make sense of everything.

The best part of my job is that I’ve built a brand for myself. I have a good rapport with a lot of clients who come to me whenever anything happens in the sectors I cover. You feel like they trust you and your judgement. I also really enjoy building models and doing the analysis.

The worst part of my job is putting the ideas on paper. I’m good at communicating verbally, but on paper it’s a bit more difficult. However, it’s a big part of my job so I try to add a different perspective and write something that makes clients want to call you.

The lack of travel during covid taught us all that things can be done virtually just as well. I’ve been on several roadshows. I went to London with Renaissance as well as South Africa and the UAE multiple times with Arqaam. When the pandemic rolled in and things moved online, I realized that I don’t have to be there face-to-face to get the job done. Conference calls are often much smoother and they’re less time consuming and costly. You get to spend more time where you are and where your family is and you don’t have to sacrifice time on travel and commutes. I prefer virtual roadshows and I think that face-to-face meetings will decrease even if the whole world reopens and we go back to normal life.

My theory of investment is you shouldn’t just focus on fundamentals. It’s something I learned while working in asset management. A stock should look good fundamentally of course, but technical analysis and market sense are the deciding factors for me. Knowing when to jump in is extremely important. I can’t recommend a stock, no matter how good it is, if it’s up 40% YTD for example. No stock in the world trades on a fair value basis. There has to be a good story, good management, is affordable, and preferably, has a potential catalyst that could drive the price up. You have to be picky in what you choose. Otherwise, diversification is extremely important. You should diversify within each industry and each sector as well.

The most important factors I look at before recommending a stock are a good story and an attractive entry point. In Egypt, we also put a lot of weight on management and stock liquidity. Two stocks can be very similar and the firms do the same thing, but one is liquid and the other isn’t. In that case, I’ll recommend the liquid one.

I don’t think the EGX will close in the green this year. The anticipation of the capital gains tax coming into effect next year might bring it down. People are restless about it in general.

I also don’t think 2022 will be the year of Egypt. The market is very attractive in terms of valuations, price-to-earnings ratios, and multiples, but the problem is the lack of catalysts on the macro front. We’ve got inflation under control and no significant rate cuts are expected in the coming period.

The last great things I watched are Modern Family and Money Heist. However, I’m not a fan of another season for Money Heist. It's a good show but it should just end there.

I’ve mostly been reading parenting books these days since I’m pregnant and due any day now.

In my downtime, I like to play sports. Before my pregnancy I used to like going to the gym or playing kickboxing and padel tennis, but now I mostly walk or swim.

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The EGX30 fell 0.72% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 1.24 bn (16.8% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is up 3.2% YTD.

In the green: Egypt Kuwait Holding — EGP (+3.5%), Egypt Kuwait Holding — USD (+2.7%) and AMOC (+1.25%).

In the red: Aspire Capital (-9.4%), Raya Holding (-7.7%) and Speed Medical (-6.0%).

14-22 October (Thursday- Friday): El Gouna Film Festival.

Mid-October: The Egyptian Banking Institute, the Financial Services Institute, and I-Score will begin airing in mid-October the Digital Credit Scoring Webinar Series, a line-up of webinars on the banking sector and banking regulations.

20 October (ًWednesday): E-Finance begins trading on EGX.

21 October (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the Prophet’s Birthday.

24-28 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Cairo, Egypt.

27-28 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Intelligent Cities Exhibition & Conference, Royal Maxim Palace Kempinski, Cairo, Egypt.

28 October (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

28 October (Thursday): Second tranche of overdue subsidy payouts will be handed to eligible exporters.

30 October – 4 November (Saturday-Thursday): The first edition of Race The Legends, Egypt.

30-31 October (Saturday-Sunday): G20 Leaders’ Summit, Rome, Italy.

31 October (Saturday): World Cities Day, Luxor, Egypt.

November: The French-Egyptian Business Forum is set to take place in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.

November: Egypt will host another round of talks to reach a potential Egyptian-Eurasian trade agreement, which can significantly contribute to increasing the volume of Egyptian exports to the Russia-led bloc that includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

1-3 November (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Energy exhibition on power and renewable energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

1-12 November (Monday-Friday): 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), Glasgow, United Kingdom.

2-3 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Federal Reserve meets to review interest rates.

7-10 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT 2021, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo.

15-21 November (Monday-Sunday): Intra-African Trade Fair 2021, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

16-17 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Africa fintech summit, Cairo.

25-27 November (Thursday-Saturday): RiseUp Summit, Cairo, Egypt.

26 November-5 December (Friday-Sunday): The 43rd Cairo International Film Festival.

29 November-2 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defense Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Centre.

7-8 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): North Africa Trade Finance Summit.

8-10 December (Wednesday-Thursday): Global Forum for Higher Education and Scientific Research (GFHS), Cairo, Egypt.

12-14 December (Sunday-Tuesday): Food Africa Cairo trade exhibition, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

13-17 December: United Nations Convention against Corruption, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.

14-19 December (Tuesday-Sunday): The Cairo International Festival for Experimental Theater.

14-15 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Federal Reserve meets to review interest rates.

15 December (Wednesday): Deadline for joint stock companies and investment companies in Cairo to join e-invoicing platform.

16 December (Thursday): The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates.

1Q2022: Launch of the Egyptian Commodities Exchange.

14-16 February 2022 (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Petroleum Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center, New Cairo, Egypt.

19 February 2022 (Saturday): Public universities begin the second term of the 2021-2022 academic year.

1H2022: The World Economic Forum annual meeting, location TBD.

22-24 April 2022: World Bank-IMF spring meeting, Washington D.C.

May 2022: Investment in Logistics Conference, Cairo, Egypt

16 June 2022 (Thursday): End of 2021-2022 academic year for public schools

27 June-3 July 2022 (Monday-Sunday): World University Squash Championships, New Giza.

2H2022: IEF-IGU Ministerial Gas Forum, Egypt. Date + location TBA.

18-20 October 2022 (Tuesday-Thursday): Mediterranean Offshore Conference, Alexandria, Egypt.

**Note to readers: Some national holidays may appear twice above. Since 2020, Egypt has observed most mid-week holidays on Thursdays regardless of the day on which they fall and may also move those days to Sundays. We distinguish below between the actual holiday and its observance.