Tuesday, 15 September 2015

El-Erian: Volatility is the new norm, but it’s going to create “attractive opportunities”

TL;DR

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The IMF delegation began its round of meetings in Cairo three days ago, meetings which are still ongoing, according to a Finance Ministry statement (Read in Arabic) released on Monday. The talks are routine and are to assess and discuss Egypt’s economic performance. The IMF delegation is also discussing policy reforms and fiscal programmes to stimulate economic growth.

Conflicting accounts continue to emerge a mistaken attack on a tourist convoy by security forces in the Western Desert. As we reported yesterday, Mexican and Egyptian nationals died in the attack. Our roundup of what we know so far appears in a Spotlight, after Speed Round (below).

Neither Abraaj nor Nile Badrawi Hospital have confirmed Monday’s report in Al Borsa (Read in Arabic) citing unnamed sources as saying the PE firm had acquired 100% of the prominent Cairo-area hospital.

The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) will hold its 70th session today.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

A German trade mission began its visit on Sunday, and will cover Cairo, Alexandria and Ismailiya before wrapping up on Wednesday, according to the German-Arab Chamber of Industry and Commerce.

Both the Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will speak to interest rates this Thursday.

A number of conferences are ongoing this week, including Cityscape, the SPE North Africa Technical Conference and Exhibition, and the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) high-level meeting, all in Cairo. Details in Calendar, below.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

Pharos Holding - http://www.pharosholding.com/

CIB - http://www.cibeg.com/

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Monday night’s episode of Hona El Assema focused entirely on the accidental killing of 12 people, the majority of them Mexican tourists, by Egyptian security forces. Lamis El Hadidy kicked-off the discussion with a short telephone call with Foreign Ministry spokesman Ahmed Abouzeid.

Abouzeid: “The Egyptian and Mexican foreign ministers have held multiple phone conversations over the past day. During the calls, Minister Shoukry explained the timeline of events which led to the unfortunate tragedy and stressed his country’s commitment to conducting an exhaustive investigation into the matter.”

Shortly after, El Hadidy introduced Hassan El Nahla, head of the tour guides syndicate, and security specialist Khalid Okasha to viewers.

El Nahla: “We were never notified [by the authorities] that this area would witness a security sweep… We did not know that this area was off-limits. We frequented it often in the past… The area in which the tourist bus stopped is a place we visit often.”

Meanwhile, Okasha attributed the tragedy to what he called “a lack of coordination between the security apparatus and tourism companies.”

On the other side of television world, Youssef El Housseiny, host of El Sada El Mohtaramoon, opened his program with a discussion on the qualities that Egypt’s upcoming Speaker of the House must possess. “He must be calm, concise, and accurate. He must also have the respect of the people. He must possess knowledge of Egypt’s laws and constitution,” said El Husseiny.

Shortly after ending his poetic preamble, El Housseiny revealed to viewers the name of the man he believes would be a perfect fit for the post: former president and current head of the Constitutional Court, Adly Mansour. “His resume, his career, they are purer than the most pure diamond,” said the enamored host.

** SHARE ENTERPRISE WITH A FRIEND **

Enterprise is available without charge — just visit our English or Arabic subscription page, depending on which edition you would like to receive. We give you just about everything you need to know about Egypt, in your inbox Sunday through Thursday before 7am CLT (8am for Arabic), and all we ask for is your name, email address and where you hang your hat during business hours.

SPEED ROUND

Speed Round is presented in association with

SODIC - http://sodic.com/

Unnamed sources told Al Ahram that the new members of the cabinet are set to be announced on Tuesday by newly-appointed Prime Minister Sherif Ismail, following extensive meetings with potential candidates on Sunday. According to sources, the Cabinet’s ‘economic group,’ as well as the ministries of youth and sports, tourism, informal settlements, housing, and social solidarity will not witness any changes. It is, however, expected that new ministers will be appointed to head the Ministry of Culture and Ministry of Religious Endowments, according to sources. Ahram had made the same claim on Sunday evening, (Read in Arabic).

Just a week after Mohamed El Erian declared that “Market volatility is the new norm in a piece for the FT (paywall), the favorite market-caller of Enterprise readers told CNBC’s Squawk on the Street in a live interview yesterday that “We have a bumpy road ahead of us, but I keep on stressing, it will create a lot of attractive opportunities.” Volatility — and not U.S. Federal Reserve policy decisions — is what investors will want to focus on, because the former represents a “fundamental shift in economic conditions.” Global markets, he said, may be experiencing a shift to a “‘higher-volatility regime,’ meaning that asset allocations will become aggressive and price multiples will begin ‘looking high.’” Both emerging markets and oil have become “unhinged,” he said, and “there may be some opportunities appearing. He admitted, however, that one’s investment horizon will affect whether to get in now.”

Qalaa Holdings has multiple suitors for Rashidi El Mizan. KSA’s Halwani Bros. says it has given its Egyptian subsidiary the go-ahead to acquire the high-profile maker of halawa, tahina and jam products, according to a statement (Arabic) filed to the Tadawul. The move is meant to grow Halwani Bros’ market share in Egypt. Meanwhile, Al Borsa adds that Saudi’s Olayan and Egypt’s Beltone Private Equity are also in the market to acquire Rashidi, which the newspaper says could fetch EGP 500-600 mn. El Rashidi El Mizan reportedly controls 59% of the halawa market, 68% of tahina, and is third in the jam market with a 15% share. Read the firm’s disclosure, issued yesterday, on the divestment program here (Arabic). In other news, DNE reports that the second phase of Qalaa’s rights issue was 64.7% covered.

** ENTERPRISE is in the market for an outstanding journalist / staff writer / analyst as well as a copy editor to join our growing team. Egyptian nationals with amazing English skills and strong reading comprehension of Arabic preferred, but we’ll consider foreign applicants who have demonstrated experience in Egypt (journalist / analyst) or a strong interest in the region (copy editor). Interested? Check out LinkedIn or email patrick@enterprisemea.com with a solid cover letter and three work samples. CVs are nice, not necessary. Sense of humor a must.

51 El-Ezaby pharmacies are to be shut down in the next ten days, the Egyptian Pharmaceuticals Syndicate decided, according to Al Borsa. The decision came after a number of franchisees refused to attend questioning by the Syndicate, which claims pharmacists owning more than one pharmacies and using franchising agreements to operate under a major brand, including El-Ezaby’s, are in violation of the law. Ahmed El-Ezaby, the franchise owner, refused the allegations and the syndicate’s threats saying “no pharmacies will be shut … we’re not at war … we will reach a solution.”

JLL presented its MENA Middle Income Housing report with the general findings showing a “significant and growing shortage of middle-income housing across the MENA region.” Although regional governments have begun to acknowledge the problem, private developers have been “slow to the party” even though progress requires a joint concentrated effort. JLL identified middle-income housing as accommodation that can be afforded by the middle 40-60% tranche of households, based on spending no more than 30% of their gross household income on housing. In Egypt, those earning between EGP 5,000 – 12,500 per month are the main source of demand for middle-income housing, accounting for 12 mn households. This segment, JLL suggests, can afford rents of up to EGP 32,000 per annum, and could potentially purchase property priced up to EGP 285,000. The report gives Orascom Housing Communities kudos for being a private developer that recognised the problem in Egypt, but says more sites in close proximity to Cairo’s public transport network still need to be identified for housing projects. The landing page of the report is here.

A top exec at property developer Emaar Misr claims media reports haven’t told the full story of Mohamed Alabbar’s involvement with the new administrative capital, saying the Emaar chairman remains committed to supporting the Egyptian economy, Al Mal reports.

Meanwhile, Cityscape is ongoing. As was the case with Euromoney, media coverage is relatively lacklustre, with the most interesting stories so far being Hill International’s take on the seven challenges faced by the state and developers on joint ventures (Arabic) and a discussion between EFSA boss Sherif Samy and Naeem’s Sherif Wahdan, moderated by Coldwell Banker’s Mohammed Abdulla.

Fueling stations in Giza have begun receiving additional deliveries of gasoline and diesel to cope with rising demand as residents begin traveling to home governorates for Eid Al-Adha. Petrol stations reported long lines and shortages on Sunday and into Monday. Al Borsa and Al Mal have additional detail, with the latter noting that while officials say the brief “shortage” was overblown, filling stations are nevertheless receiving additional product.

Barclays Africa Group Limited, formerly Absa Group Limited, said talks to acquire Barclays Bank’s stake in Barclays Bank Egypt are ongoing, according to a brief sent to Reuters.

Eleven employees of the Ministry of Agriculture have been hit with corruption charges, according to Irrigation Minister Hossam Moghazy, who is also currently serving as interim Agriculture Minister, Al Masry Al Youm reported. The charges relate to selling government-owned land in Dakahlia and issuing a licence for a poultry farm illegally.

Do you think your electricity bill is too high and the power company might be playing games? The Electricity Ministry has created an Android app called EgyptERASeS that consumers can use to record their electricity meters’ readings themselves. We haven’t tried it ourselves yet, but you can check it out here.

Following up on mounting criticism of the GCC states on their lack of assistance given to Syrian refugees, (such as this editorial by Bobby Ghosh which we ran in our 4 September issue), Chatham House’s Jane Kinninmont writes that while the GCC states are the largest donors to Syrian refugees, they are not admitting refugees into their countries. She adds that “none of them officially recognize the legal concept of refugeehood … the six Gulf monarchies have never signed the international conventions on refugee rights and statelessness.” However, with mounting scrutiny, there may be more pressure on the GCC countries to rethink their policies. This could be done through making more work visas available to Syrians and giving them the right to bring their families along, and to help finance the deficits in regional aid programmes including the WFP’s.

Russia’s FM confirms that Moscow will continue sending military supplies, specialists to Syrian government: Russia will press ahead with sending military supplies and Russian specialists to maintain the equipment and train Syrian forces, according to Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on Sunday.

Deutsche Bank is swinging the axe, looking to slash some 23k jobs — or about a quarter of its workforce, according to a story broken by Reuters. But if you’re an investment banker, manage client money or otherwise generate fee and commission income, the odds are good you’re safe: Beyond the sensationalist headline, the newswire makes clear that most of hacking and slashing will come through the spinoff of PostBank (accounting for about 15k jobs) and then cuts primarily to technology and back-office functions. Says Reuters: “[New CEO John] Cryan [who took the reins in July] aims to present details of the restructuring plan before October, close to when the new CEO of investment banking rival Credit Suisse, Tidjane Thiam, is expected to present his plans for reforms.”

Are you a football fan and need a break from it all? Check out King Fut. We have no economic interest in the site and have never met the team behind it, but the English-language football destination’s deep coverage of the beautiful game in Egypt — from the EPL to the national teams and Pharaohs abroad — has made it our must-read destination for a dose of football news. Besides, we love the name.

SPOTLIGHT ON Mistaken killing of Mexican tourists in the Western Desert

Conflicting accounts, lingering questions: Beyond the basic premise that Mexican tourists and Egyptians were mistakenly killed in a recent airstrike by Egyptian security forces and that the injured are recovering in Dar Al Fouad Hospital in Cairo, there is a dearth of clear and confirmed news on the incident. There are numerous conflicting accounts as to the day, time, location, number of dead, nationalities of those who were killed, and even confusion as to which entity will be conducting the investigation: military, police or the Ministry of Tourism.

The Ministry of Interior in the early hours of Monday morning reported on their Facebook page in Arabic that during an operation pursuing terrorist groups in the Wahat area in the Western Desert, a joint force of police and military personnel wrongfully targeted four SUVs carrying Mexican tourists. The incident resulted in 12 deaths and 10 injuries.

Despite the MOI’s claims that the attack occurred at night, as reported by Ahram Gate (Read in Arabic), and that the group was unlicensed, the head of the Tourist Guide Syndicate Hassan Al Nahla published the security clearance the tourist group had received, which may be viewed here (in Arabic via AMAY). Al Nahla explained that the group passed several checkpoints on its way to the Wahat El Bahariya area, a 300 km drive from Cairo, when they stopped at around 260 km because one of the passengers was a diabetic who needed to stop for food. The group went off-road, without any prior knowledge of the zone being restricted, and without the presence of any warning signs, or receiving warning from any of the police checkpoints along the way, or from the tourism police personnel escorting them, Al Masry Al Youm claims. The New York Times quotes witnesses as saying that the attack instead happened midday-Sunday.

The Guardian, meanwhile, quotes a local tour guide with a different story, saying “the vehicles were clearly in an area where tourists were banned. ‘From where the four cars were shot, this is the beginning of the route smugglers use to smuggle and move around. It is a known area for smugglers to go in and out from,’ said the guide, who had spoken to an Egyptian survivor. The guide said the area where the attack happened, which was recently claimed by a local Islamic State affiliate, was closed to all vehicles. ‘But I understand why they went there as it is a common shortcut and a spot for lunch,’ he said. ‘It is not on asphalt, it is off-road. They should not have left the asphalt, especially on the west side, this is completely banned.’”

Mexican Foreign Minister Claudia Ruiz Massieu said that Mexican tourists who survived the mistaken attack by Egyptian security forces claimed that they were fired upon by helicopters in the Western Desert, Al Masry Al Youm reports. A statement released by the Mexican Foreign Ministry on Monday states that two Mexicans were killed and five were injured in the attack. Meanwhile, on Monday, Mexican President Enrique Peno Nieto tweeted: “Mexico condemns the attacks on its citizens and demands that the Egyptian government carry out a thorough investigation of the incident.”

9 people who were injured in the Western Desert incident were admitted to Dar El Fouad hospital: Unnamed sources within the hospital told Al Masry Al Youm that they are treating 9 patients, 7 of whom are Mexican, one of whom holds an American passport, and two Egyptians. There are five patients in the ICU with gunshot wounds, the source added, while eight Mexicans and four Egyptians died, the story claims.

While visiting the injured at the hospital to express his condolences, interim prime minister Ibrahim Mahlab was accosted by a man who told him “I swear to God you don’t know where they are right now,” (Watch in Arabic, running time: 24 seconds), possibly in reference to the Egyptians who were killed. According to their relatives, the bodies of the dead Egyptians are still strewn about in the desert, with the public prosecutor’s office refusing to investigate, according to Amr Imam, a lawyer at the Hisham Mubarak Law Center, whose relative was one of the victims killed in the attack, as per Mada Masr.

Asked for a statement, military spokesman Brig. Gen. Mohamed Samir said: “When it comes to tourists, it is a Ministry of Interior issue, not ours … This incident has nothing to do with the army even if the army and police carried out the operation together … This is the system of this country, and you don’t have the right to question it.” (Read)

Several countries have had travel advisories warning their nationals against visiting the Western Desert in general and Farafra in particular, including Canada, and the UK. The US Embassy in Cairo explicitly forbids its personnel from travelling to the Western Desert, but makes no advisory for American tourists, who are referred to the State Department’s website. The State advisory mentions the August 2014 carjacking and murder of a US citizen in the Western Desert, but does not specifically advise against travel to the area.

News has begun to emerge on some of the victims of the attack. The Spanish-language edition of Newsweek has published a profile of 40-year old musician Rafael Bejarano Rangel, who had frequently travelled to Egypt over the past 10 years. He was accompanied on this trip by his mother, who was injured in the attack and is recovering in Dar Fouad Hospital.

WORTH READING

Case Study: Should This Startup Take VC Money or Try to Turn a Profit? Harvard Business Review writes on the fictional startup AndFound, “an online platform that connected investors with a curated selection of start-ups. It’s why the service, launched in 2012, had grown so popular with users. But it was also potentially a business model weakness — it was the impossible problem,” that is, when and how — if ever — should they attempt to monetize. Harvard Business Review is calling for commentary on the piece: “This fictionalized case study will appear in a forthcoming issue of Harvard Business Review, along with commentary from experts and readers. If you’d like your comment to be considered for publication, please be sure to include your full name, company or university affiliation, and e-mail address.” (Read)

ENERGY

Petroceltic to drill in Egypt next year near Zohr
Irish Examiner | 14 Sep 2015
Petroceltic is set to begin drilling at one of its prospects located close to Eni’s Zohr next year, The Irish Examiner reported. Petroceltic holds two licences, awarded last year and in 2013, for the North Thekah and North Port Fouad concessions located around 5 km west of Zohr. “It is understood that Petroceltic will now drill at the North Thekah licence next year, after receiving results from 3D seismic activity before the end of this year. It is also believed that a similar 3D survey to the programme carried out there will proceed at North Port Fouad,” The Irish Examiner reported. (Read)

Zohr’s discovery does not negate Cyprus export agreement, Egypt’s ambassador to Nicosia says
In Cyprus | 13 Sep 2015
The recent discovery of Eni’s Zohr gas field does not spell the end of the gas export agreement with Cyprus, Egypt’s newly-accredited ambassador in Cyprus said. The offer to liquefy Cypriot gas and resell it to European markets still stands, the Ambassador noted. He added that there is a proposal to transport gas from Cyprus to Port Said, from which it would transferred to liquefaction plants. “Now they are studying the offer, not only the Cyprus government but also (involved) gas companies, they are all studying it. (US energy firm) Noble and BG and ENI and Total are all looking into this offer and a decision has to be made soon.” (Read)

MANUFACTURING

Hungarian investors to sign agreement to produce heavy machinery in Egypt
Al Masry Al Youm | 14 Sep 2015
A delegation of Hungarian companies are set to sign an agreement with an unnamed Egyptian industrial company to produce heavy machinery and equipment, Trade and Industry Minister Mounir Fakhry Abdel Nour said. Egyptian companies are looking to enter Eastern European markets through collaboration with Hungary, the Minister added. Abdel Nour also said that the operations of a joint business council should focus on setting up an action plan to reflect positively on both countries. (Read in Arabic)

Misr Cement Qena set to complete EGP 348.5 mn projects next June
Al Borsa | 14 Sep 2015
Misr Cement Qena will complete three projects by June 2016 at a total cost of EGP 348.5 mn, sources within the company told Al Borsa. The projects include the EGP 192.4 mn 300 tonne per hour vertical cement mill and 15k tonne storage silo project, the EGP 113.5 mn conversion to coal burners from the mazut project, and the EGP 42.57 mn alternative fuel project. The tender for the first two projects was won by global engineering company FLSmidth. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

Novo Nordisk to produce human insulin in Egypt, will sell insulin degludec domestically
Al Shorouk | 14 Sep 2015
Danish pharmaceutical producer Novo Nordisk has signed an agreement with Vacsera to begin producing human insulin in Egypt in a project that could eventually satiate domestic demand fully. The plant will abide by international standards and will test its output at Novo Nordisk’s labs. At present, domestic insulin production only covers 5% of demand, the head of Novo Nordisk Egypt said. The company is also preparing to market insulin degludec in Egypt for Type I and II diabetics in 2016. Over 1.5 mn diabetics in Egypt inject themselves with insulin regularly, 70% of whom use Novo Nordisk’s products, the company said. (Read in Arabic)

AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION

Pesa SA to open to new office in Egypt by year’s end
Al Borsa | 13 Sep 2015
Polish railway vehicles manufacturer, Pesa SA, said it is opening a new office in Egypt by the end of 2015, Al Borsa reported. Pesa is finalising its registration process and looking to increase investments in Egypt, a Polish chamber of commerce executive said. The company is looking either to build a plant to manufacture railway vehicles domestically or to redevelop a government-owned plant for this purpose. (Read in Arabic)

** Further reading in Automotive + Transportation: Cairo’s tuk-tuk drivers defiant despite ban. Ahram Online’s Menna Alaa El-Din interviews tuk-tuk drivers and those opposed to their continued presence on Cairo’s streets. Earlier this month, Ahram Online published a video that touches on topics not included in the article, such as the role of child labour. (Watch in Arabic with English subtitles, running time: 5:46)

BANKING + FINANCE

Ramez: CBE will repay foreign obligations in full and on time
Al Mal | 14 Sep 2015
Central Bank of Egypt governor Hisham Ramez is quoted as saying that the CBE will meet its foreign obligations on time and in full. The remarks came as net international reserves continued to ease in August. The story goes on to summarize recent remarks from Ramez on the parallel economy for FX, the broader health of the banking system, and integrating with COMESA’s financial systems. (Read in Arabic)

Use of SWIFT network in the Middle East growing faster than global average
Reuters | 13 Sep 2015
Growth in traffic volumes of financial transactions using the SWIFT network in the Middle East is up by 12% y-o-y as of August’s end and by 11% y-o-y in Africa, Reuters reported. Average growth internationally is running at 10% currently, with Iran excluded from the data as sanctions still bar it from using the network. “We see more traction from some African communities … There is centralised decision-making … In the Middle East we see less examples of supporting the community and more action at the level of individual banks and financial institutions,” SWIFT’s regional head said. (Read)

Arab African International Bank grants USD 50 mn letters of credit to ElSewedy Electric
Al Borsa | 14 Sep 2015
The Arab African International Bank (AAIB) has agreed to grant ElSewedy Electric USD 50 mn in letters of credit at the start of next month. The company plans on using the letters of credit to completing the Ras El Bar power station expansion project, an official at the bank told Al Borsa. The West Damietta power station expansion will add 250 MW to the grid, bringing the total to 750 MW at a total cost of USD 315 mn that should be completed by the end of April 2017. (Read in Arabic)

LEGISLATION + POLICY

Ministry of Manpower and Immigration issues new conditions, procedures on work permits for foreign staff
Al Masry Al Youm | 14 Sep 2015
Minister of Manpower and Immigration Nahed Ashri issued a decision on Monday specifying new conditions and procedures for the issuance of foreign workers permits in Egypt, Al Masry Al Youm reports. The changes impose an EGP 3k fee for permits issued with a duration of 1-3 years, and then a sliding scale that sees them rise to a maximum of EGP 12k per annum thereafter. Fees also increase if the number of foreign workers exceeds 10% of a company’s workforce. Foreign staff require Ministry of Manpower or GAFI approval, with exemptions and / or parallel systems for foreign investors, foreign correspondents based in Egypt, foreign scientific researchers, administrative staffers in foreign diplomatic missions and regional and international agencies exempted by international agreements to which Egypt is a signatory. Also exempt: Sudanese, Lebanese, Palestinians, Greek foreign workers, along with Italian workers living in Egypt for no less than five years.

LAW

Capital Advocates to advise in four M&A agreements domestically
Al Mal | 14 Sep 2015
Local law firm Capital Advocates said it is advising on four M&A agreements worth a total of USD 225 mn, according to Al Mal. The agreements include an acquisition by Enel of local seismic mapping company. In addition, Capital Advocates said it is also advising on an acquisition of a local E&P company as well as medical supplies’ distributor. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

Egypt-Sudan joint technical commission on the Nile to meet in Khartoum on Tuesday
Youm7 | 14 Sep 2015
The second meeting of the 55th session of the Egypt-Sudan joint technical commission for Nile water will meet in Khartoum on Tuesday to discuss reducing waste in the Upper Nile as well as concerns regarding water reservoirs in Sudan and the Aswan High Dam. A Sudanese official in the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation told Al Sharq Al Awsat said that technical experts from Egypt and Sudan will address challenges presented by parasitic plants in the Nile, technical cooperation of the Nile Basin countries; the development of monitoring techniques; climate change, and recommendations presented in international water conferences. (Read in Arabic)

NATIONAL SECURITY

Police officer dies in Zagazig following attack: Police officer Ayman Mohamed Salem was attacked last Wednesday by unidentified assailants while on his way to work, DNE reported. Salem later died from his injuries in a hospital in Zagazig on Sunday. The assailants reportedly had attempted to steal his gun and motor bike.

Brotherhood member found dead after being arrested: Mehaged Zaki, a member of the Brotherhood’s political arm, the outlawed Freedom and Justice Party, was kidnapped early last week and was found dead on Wednesday, according to the Brotherhood, DNE reports. According to Zaki’s family, police arrested him from his home in Beni Suef over a week ago, and then received a phone call on Wednesday to inform them of his death. The ministry of interior instead say that there was a shootout at his home, which resulted in Zaki’s death. Numerous conflicting accounts such as Zaki’s has raised the specter of a growing trend of extrajudicial executions.

The Egyptian military killed 11 militants and arrested another 51 on the eighth day of Operation Haq El Shaheed, said military spokesman, General Mohamed Samir, reports Al Masry Al Youm.

ON YOUR WAY OUT

“When oil prices and profits are down, asset prices go down too, creating tremendous opportunities for acquiring those assets,” Egypt Oil and Gas writes explaining the rationale of mergers in an environment of low prices. Sea Dragon’s Egypt country manager says a nation should only worry if the company doing the purchasing does not already have roots in the country, and uses that reasoning to say “Shell has a history in Egypt and therefore is not likely to pull out after acquiring BG.” The government had also made similar assurances saying BG’s Egypt operations will continue as planned.

Government employees will receive their September salaries on 21 September, ahead of Eid Al Adha, the Finance Ministry decided, according to Al Ahram.

We’re breaking our own moratorium on the use of the word “lament” to note that Al Mal laments in a front-page website promo that no Egyptian banks have made Global Finance magazine’s list of the world’s “50 safest banks.” As near as we can tell, the list came out this summer. Business Insider summarized the top 17 banks here. Al Mal briefly lists 16 of them.

You’ve heard him in waiting rooms, lobbies, elevators and while on hold. Now, Yanni is set to perform at the Pyramids on 30 October, according to a tweet by the Greek-American recording artist earlier this month.

BY THE NUMBERS
Powered by

Pharos Holding - http://www.pharosholding.com/

QUICK FACT: Eni’s recent discovery in Egypt has boosted natural gas reserves by a little less than 50.0%.


USD CBE auction (Monday, 14 September): 7.7301 (unchanged since Sunday, 5 July)
USD parallel market (Monday, 14 September): 8.12 (-0.06 since Sunday, 13 September)

EGX30 (Monday): 7,158.1 (+1.07%)
Turnover: EGP 413.2 mn (12% below the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: 19.81%

Foreigners: Net Long | + 48.0 mn EGP
Regional: Net Short | – 9.8 mn EGP
Local: Net Short | – 38.2 EGP

Retail: 58.3% of total trades | 55.6% of buyers | 61.0% of sellers
Institutions: 41.7% of total trades | 44.4 of buyers | 39.0% of sellers

Foreign: 27.0% of total | 32.8% of buyers | 21.2% of sellers
Regional: 5.9% of total | 4.7% of buyers | 7.1% of sellers
Domestic: 67.1% of total | 62.5% of buyers | 71.7% of sellers


***
PHAROS VIEW:

In Real Estate, Signals of a Cyclical Slowdown Are Flashing

Following up where we left off in July, we have recently observed softer sales momentum across a range of high-end property developers, particularly during Q2-15. While selected firms attributed softer sales during the quarter to the Ramadan effect, we believe that the stagnation in selling prices during the year confirms our view that consumers’ purchasing power is no longer capable of absorbing new launches as has been the case over the past three years.

More recently, we noted what we classify as a major sign of demand strain, namely: the offering of longer installment schedules. For example, Emaar Misr has recently started to market for a seven-year installment schedule to be applied for sales concluded during the period of the Cityscape-Egypt Exhibition (16-19 September 2015). We believe that competitive pressures and softer demand may force other developers to follow suit. Tap here to learn more.
***


WTI: USD 43.79 (-1.88%)
Brent: USD 46.38 (-3.66%)
Gold: USD 1,108.3 / troy ounce (+0.45%)

TASI: 7,549.9 (-1.5%)
ADX: 4,486.0 (-1.5%)
DFM: 3,511.3 (-1.6%)
KSE Weighted Index: 385.0 (0.7%)
QE: 11,534.3 (-1.1%)
MSM: 5,794.7 (0%)

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

Enterprise is available without charge thanks to the generous support of HSBC Egypt (tax ID: 204-901-715), the leading corporate and retail lender in Egypt; EFG Hermes (tax ID: 200-178-385), the leading financial services corporation in frontier emerging markets; SODIC (tax ID: 212-168-002), a leading Egyptian real estate developer; SomaBay (tax ID: 204-903-300), our Red Sea holiday partner; Infinity (tax ID: 474-939-359), the ultimate way to power cities, industries, and homes directly from nature right here in Egypt; CIRA (tax ID: 200-069-608), the leading providers of K-12 and higher level education in Egypt; Orascom Construction (tax ID: 229-988-806), the leading construction and engineering company building infrastructure in Egypt and abroad; Moharram & Partners (tax ID: 616-112-459), the leading public policy and government affairs partner; Palm Hills Developments (tax ID: 432-737-014), a leading developer of commercial and residential properties; Mashreq (tax ID: 204-898-862), the MENA region’s leading homegrown personal and digital bank; Industrial Development Group (IDG) (tax ID:266-965-253), the leading builder of industrial parks in Egypt; Hassan Allam Properties (tax ID:  553-096-567), one of Egypt’s most prominent and leading builders; and Saleh, Barsoum & Abdel Aziz (tax ID: 220-002-827), the leading audit, tax and accounting firm in Egypt.