Expect a cut to the global growth forecast as the IMF, World Bank annual meetings get underway today

The annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank start today and wrap up on Sunday, with the talk of the town these days being the global economic outlook for 2019.

The IMF will weigh in on the question everybody’s been asking for months: Is the world economy sliding into recession? Global economic growth has slowed to 2.2% in 3Q2019, down from 4.7% at the start of 2018, according to Bloomberg Economics’ global GDP tracker. Newly minted IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva sees a “serious risk” the slowdown will spread, and on Tuesday the fund is likely to cut its 2019 global growth forecast from 3.2%, which was already the weakest reading since 2009, Bloomberg says. The bottom line is “a lot needs to go right” for the world to dodge a major slowdown, according to Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics.

Why might you need to dig a bunker: The 18-month-long US-China trade… war has put global growth under pressure, causing it to contract for five straight months. The UK and EU have yet to seal a Brexit agreement, and regional tensions with Iran may still hike oil prices. And on top of all that, analysts are increasingly concerned that central banks lack the necessary monetary policy tools to offset macro pressures and prevent recession.

But all hope is not lost: The probability of the US falling into a recession is actually only at around 25%, the Bloomberg economist suggests, and, while its labor market has shown signs of easing, it should continue to support household spending. On the opposite end of the globe, China can also still shift if needed. And while central banks may not be well equipped to head off a crisis entirely, the monetary policy wheels are in motion and policy changes need time to deliver the desired effect.

Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry begins his tour of Eastern Europe in Vienna today, according to a cabinet statement. He will then visit Croatia, Lithuania and Latvia for bilateral talks.

Key dates for your diaries this month:

• The two-day ‘Egypt Can’ conference starts on Wednesday, 16 October. The event will be attended by 65 of the biggest foreign investors in Egypt as well as representatives from international financial institutions, businesses and the Egyptian government.
• The Intelligent Cities Exhibition & Conference will take place at the Hilton Heliopolis on 23-24 October.
• A B2B conference for German and Egyptian companies to talk cooperation will take place on Monday, 28 October in Cairo. Click or tap here to register.
• The US Federal Reserve will meet on 29-30 October to review key interest rates.

PE firms forced to think small as big transactions go south: The number of private equity transactions worth USD 1 bn or less has hit a record high as the collapse of a number of large agreements force firms to think small, the Financial Times says. Buyouts and investments valued at under USD 500 mn have also hit new highs, and now constitute almost a third of the market. The increase in direct lenders and the abundance of PE firms looking to close in on these assets are expected to help maintain the trend for the foreseeable future, said David Kamo, a senior private equity banker at Goldman Sachs.

Failed IPOs to hit Goldman and Morgan Stanley where it hurts: Bulge bracket investment banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have slashed their 3Q earnings expectations following a slew of underperforming IPOs and an M&A slowdown, the Financial Times says. Analysts have sharply reduced their estimates for Goldman by 15% over the past month, while Morgan Stanley’s forecasts have been cut by 10%.

SoftBank planning WeWork takeover: SoftBank Group has lined up a financing package for WeWork that could give it control of the company in return for much needed liquidity, sources with knowledge of the matter have said, according to the Wall Street Journal. The Japanese holding company already owns a third of WeWork and is considering putting in another few bn USD in new equity and debt. This would all but wrest control of the company away from Adam Neumann, the company’s co-founder — and until recently — the chief executive.

The embattled company does have another option though: JPMorgan is reportedly in talks with investors over a multibn USD debt package, sources said.

A provisional US-China agreement is a “net positive” for both economies, but don’t overestimate the impact of a trade truce,warns this Wall Street Journal video (watch, runtime: 01:31). Uncertainty surrounding future trade policy — arguably the biggest impact of the trade war on the US — has not abated, as many of the thorniest issues between the two countries have been tabled and no enforcement mechanisms negotiated. Investment and employment are faltering, especially in areas like manufacturing. Meanwhile, China has had its own domestic economic problems to contend with, which may well have been compounded by a fall in exports that is expected to have accelerated in September, the Financial Times says.

Morgan Stanley concurs: “There is not yet a viable path to existing tariffs declining, and tariff escalation remains a meaningful risk,” the investment bank wrote in a note, according to CNBC. “Thus, we do not yet expect a meaningful rebound in corporate behavior that would drive global growth expectations higher.”

Also making the rounds:

• Moscow is looking to cut its exposure to the USD by accepting either EUR or RUB settlements for its “vast” energy exports, the Financial Times reports, and has already cult its holdings of US sovereign debt in just 18 months.
• Kurdish forces are casting their lot with the Syrian military in a bid to halt Turkey’s invasion of northern Syria, the Associated Press reports. The report comes as President Donald Trump ordered that troops begin pulling out of the north of the country, increasing speculation that a full withdrawal may be imminent, the AP says.

A quick tip of the hat to our friends at Zulficar & Partners, who recently celebrated their 10th anniversary as a firm with friends, clients and colleagues at a cocktail reception held in the shadow of the Pyramids.

Ties with Ethiopia in the headlines: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s speech at the Armed Forces Educational Symposium was all the talking heads could talk about last night:

The president said he will meet with and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Russia to talk about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the Egyptian president said without specifying a timeframe (watch, runtime: 10:12). Look for the gathering to take place as early as this month at a coming Russia-Africa gathering that is being hosted by Russian leader Vladimir Putin. We have more on this in this morning’s Diplomacy + Foreign Trade, below.

El Sisi also warned of the dangers of internal strife, arguing that ordinary Syrians are responsible for their country entering a civil war.

MENA fund managers plan to boost their Egypt investments, seemingly undeterred by recent protests: MENA-based funds plan to increase their investments in Egypt, despite recent political protests, while keeping their exposure in the rest of the region unchanged, according to a Reuters poll. Five of nine managers polled said they would increase their investments in Egypt, citing improved economic indicators.

Rate cuts key: The Central Bank of Egypt’s monetary easing cycle was cited as a key factor encouraging fund managers to increase their exposure to Egypt, according to Vrajesh Bhandari, senior portfolio manager at Al Mal Capital. “Undoubtedly, [Egypt is] the most interesting story in MENA. The events in the last two weeks and the sharp market recovery is evidence that the risk-to-reward is very favorable,” he said. “If the rate cuts come in as expected, we think next year could be similar.” A previous poll by the wire service at the end of August noted that funds eyed increasing their investments in Egypt and UAE and decreasing allocations in Saudi Arabia.

No change to UAE, Saudi, Qatar, Turkey, Kuwait allocations: Meanwhile, fund managers said they were keeping allocations in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Kuwait equal. Bhandari said some investors are reducing exposure to the region in light of higher geopolitical risks and discouraging overall growth compared to other emerging markets.

REGULATION WATCH- FRA approves cuts to stock market fees: The Financial Regulatory Authority’s (FRA) board of directors approved yesterday a proposal to slash regulatory fees on stock market transactions, FRA boss Mohamed Omran said. The plans would reduce trading service fees by 20% to 0.005% from 0.00625%. Fees collected from clearing houses, meanwhile, would fall by the same rate to 0.010% from 0.0125% and from stock brokers by 17% to 0.010% from 0.0120%. Charges on trading insurance would be cut in half to 0.005%, while trading fees on listed bonds will be half that of equities. The proposal will now be sent to the cabinet for approval. An unnamed FRA source told Al Shorouk the cuts would be approved by cabinet before the end of October. Reuters also has the story.

Will investor-protection fund fees be halved again? The government committee that had drafted the original proposal to cut fees also suggested slashing fees charged by Egyptian Investor Protection Fund (EIPF) by a further 50% to 0.005% after it was halved last week to 0.01% from 0.02%.

INVESTMENT WATCH- The Saudi-Egyptian Industrial Investment Company (SEII) has earmarked USD 40 mn to invest by the end of 2020, CEO Ahmed Ata tells the press. SEII is currently mulling four new investment prospects, the largest of which is in an unnamed energy company. The company is looking to diversify its USD 60 mn portfolio away from a focus on pharma and toward the food and beverage, energy, and technology sectors.

Portfolio: SEII owns two stakes in EGX-listed Arab Cotton Ginning and October Pharma, and in medical supplies manufacturer Farcomake. It also owns shares in Misr Compressor Manufacturing and Arab Medical Packing (Flexipack) as well as a stake in state-owned Alexandria For Petroleum Additives (Acpa) that it is looking to divest the near-term.

LEGISLATION WATCH- Unified Building Code to impose new insurance requirements on developers: The House of Representatives’ Housing Committee has approved amendments to the long-awaited Unified Building Code, Al Shorouk reported. The amendments would require developers constructing buildings taller than five storeys or valued at over EGP 3 mn to buy insurance against construction-related damage. The insurance would cover the developer and contractor for any damages during construction and the guarantee period. The committee has also decided to allow buyers to ask firms registered with the Engineering Syndicate to assess the building, scrapping a previous requirement for these firms to be registered with the Housing Ministry. There was no mention of when the amendments would be discussed or voted on by the general assembly.

The steel tariff beef still isn’t over. Rolling mills are planning to appeal once again a decision to introduce import duties on steel rebar and iron billets, claiming that the measures will damage their businesses, Al Shorouk reports. The High Administrative Court yesterday overturned a court decision to freeze the Trade Ministry’s 25% import duty on steel rebar and a 16% duty on iron billets, provoking the ire of rolling mills. Ayman al-Ashry, member of the Chamber of Metallurgical Industries and president of the Al Ashry Steel Group, said the duties will increase production costs by EGP 2k to EGP 12k per ton and that he plans to launch another appeal. Wanes Ayad, chairman of Metad Helwan for Rolling Metals (Ayad Group), claimed that the tariff would set back the economy by EGP 16bn, adding that the government is providing benefits to integrated factories at the expense of some 22 rolling mills.

Background: The administrative court ruled against the imposition of the duties back in July, after a number of rolling mills said they had been forced to halt production. The ministry filed an appeal against the decision, claiming that the tariffs will help protect local steelmakers. The Trade Ministry announced after the hearing that duties will last for three years and be reduced gradually to reach 17% on steel rebar and 10% on iron billets by 12 April 2021.

Azimut to set up Egypt-focused equity fund: Italy-based asset manager Azimut Group has completed the procedures to establish a fund to invest in publicly-traded Egyptian companies, Managing Director Ahmed Abu Saad told the local press. The fund will be based in Luxembourg, and is expected to launch before the end of 2019, Abu Saad said. Azimut in August completed the acquisition of 100% of Rasmala Egypt Asset Management (REAM) from its parent company Rasmala Group for EGP 211.3 mn.

Correction: 14/10/2019.

A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that Azimut were establishing a private equity fund.

Moody’s upgrades Apicorp’s credit rating to Aa2, outlook stable: Moody’s has upgraded the Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation’s (Apicorp) long-term issuer and senior unsecured rating to Aa2 from Aa3, the ratings agency said in a statement. Apicorp’s outlook has been revised to stable from positive. The stable outlook is a reflection that Apicorp’s “creditworthiness will be supported by moderate leverage, high-quality development-related assets, further improvements in liquidity metrics and access to callable capital which underlines its shareholder support,” according to a company statement (pdf). Egypt is a shareholder of Apicorp, a multilateral development bank that invests in the Arab world’s oil and gas industries

EARNINGS WATCH- Ezz Steel has reported a consolidated net loss of EGP 2.47 bn in 1H 2019, compared to a EGP 148.5 mn profit during the same period the previous year, according to the company’s financial statement (pdf). Top line net sales increased marginally y-o-y, recording EGP 25.9 bn during the first six months of the year, up from EGP 25.5 bn in 1H2018.

Cartography wasn’t very accurate in the Islamic golden age: Arabic maps from the height of the medieval Islamic golden age are now on display at a new exhibition in Oxford’s Bodleian Libraries until March 8. Despite being rather different from their modern counterparts, these old maps made a “vital contribution to the history of cartography,” says the National.

Pictured above is a circular map from the collection. It centers around Baghdad and the Arabian peninsula, and shows the Nile flowing in an opposite direction toward the center.

The reverberations from last month’s demonstrations is still topping coverage of Egypt in the foreign press, with NPR terming the detention of some 3,000 people a “major escalation” against dissent. The story comes as Agence France-Presse reports that two activists who played significant roles in the events of 2011 (Esraa Abdel Fattah, a blogger and journalist who co-founded the 6 April movement, and Abdallah Said, a Bread and Freedom party official) were both arrested yesterday,

Russia wants to set up a freetrade zone with Egypt and Israel, President Vladimir Putin told media ahead of his visit to Saudi Arabia, Reuters reported. No further details were provided.

Other stories worth a skim this morning:

• Independent film is growing in popularity in Egypt, and offers a space to tackle thorny social issues often avoided by mainstream cinema, the Arab Weekly says.
• E-commerce startup MaxAB talks to Forbes about how it wants to use tech to solve issues in the B2B grocery sector, which CEO Belal El Megharbel describes asEgypt’s “most complex” problem.
• Will the real Mo Salah please stand up? It turns out that the world-famous footballer has a lookalike who sometimes fills in for him in adverts, Arab News reports.
• Set to be held in Heliopolis next week, Cairo’s first honey festival is meant to encourage Egyptians to substitute saturated sugar with honey, Al Monitor reports.

Just who exactly invented the Arabic typewriter? In late-nineteenth century Egypt, two different men claimed the title of sole inventor of the Arabic typewriter. Their rival claims were passed down through their respective families, prompting impassioned debate in a series of Al Ahram articles published in 1939. But both Egyptian Philippe Waked and Syrian Selim Haddad have a justifiable claim to the title of inventor, according to this Kerning Cultures podcast (listen, runtime: 29:45).

The men may have worked in parallel to improve a clumsy prototype: A recent investigation by AUC Technology Transfer Office Director Ahmed El Leithy reveals that both men, working in different fields in Egypt during a time of great innovation, are likely to have seen a clumsy prototype of the Arabic typewriter shown during the 1893 Chicago World’s Fair, before each working independently to develop a better model. Haddad filed the first patent for the Arabic typewriter, but Waked had in fact produced the first typed letter in Arabic three months earlier. Each man played a key role in proving the commercial viability of the Arabic typewriter, the podcast argues, and perhaps it’s time to consign their rivalry to the annals of history, and simply celebrate their achievement.

El Sisi, Ahmed to meet for GERD talks in Russia: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said yesterday that he will meet with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Russia to discuss the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Reuters reports. “I agreed with the Ethiopian prime minister to meet in Moscow and to discuss the issue to move forward, and God willing, things will go in a way that helps to solve this issue in one way or another,” El Sisi said during a military forum yesterday. It is unclear when they will meet, but they will both be in Russia for the Russian-African summit which kicks off in Sochi on 23 October. This comes after the two leaders pledged to come to an agreement during a phone call at the weekend following a week of heightened tensions over the stalled talks. The story was also picked up by the Associated Press.

A Korean business delegation visited the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) to kick the tyres on potential investments with SCZone Vice President Mohamed Shaaban, Al Masry Al Youm reported. The delegation was briefed on the legislative, regulatory and investment structure of the zone, as well as the most important facilities it provides to investors and developers.

Egypt has been invited by South Sudanese President Salva Kiir to take part in peace talks coming up in Juba between the government and armed groups, according to an Ittihadiya statement. The Juba meeting will be a continuation of talks hosted by Egypt in September between the main armed groups of the Sudanese Revolutionary Front. Negotiations are intended to be a precursor to talks with Sudan’s transitional government.

The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) is set to sign a power purchase agreement (PPA) with Siemens Gamesa for two wind farms generating 180 MW and 320 MW within weeks, sources told the local press. The Madbouly Cabinet had signed off on Thursday on the EETC to sign the PPA at a tariff ranging between EGP 0.031 and EGP 0.038 /kWh, according to the wind speeds in the area where the stations will be constructed.

Egypt and South Africa account for the majority of Africa’s top 10 universities in the QS World University Rankings 2020. The American University in Cairo moved up from the 420th spot last year to crack into the top 400 universities globally (395th) and ranks second in Africa after the University of Cape Town in South Africa. Cairo University is the sixth-best university in Africa, followed by Ain Shams (8th), Alexandria (9th), and Assiut (10th).

Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, Investment Minister Sahar Nasr, and Health Minister Hala Zayed held talks with the founder and chairman of Switzerland-based healthcare investor GK Investment Holding Group to discuss introducing prefabricated modular hospitals in Egypt, according to a cabinet statement.

The Higher Education Ministry has signed a MoU with Huawei Egypt to improve CIT skills among university graduates, Masrawy reports. The two sides will also form a joint working group to develop digital solutions in line with the ministry’s plans.

Jaz Hotel Group has signed two 10-year management agreements for the Sharm Dreams and Al Fayrouz resorts, according to Hapi Journal. Under the agreement, Jaz will be responsible for implementing a comprehensive renovation plan to upgrade existing properties.

India’s Lava Mobiles Africa is planning to begin manufacturing products in Egypt, Africa CEO Vikram Parmer said, according to Masrawy. The company aims to turn Egypt into its industrial and export base for Africa, where it already has operations in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Algeria and Sudan.

China has signed contracts worth USD 571 mn with Egypt for the maintenance and implementation of its planned Al-Salam City-new capital-Tenth of Ramadan electric train line, the Transport Ministry said in a statement. This included a 13-year, USD 110 mn maintenance contract, and USD 461 mn worth of agreements with a number of Egyptian contractors, including Orascom Construction, Arab Contractors, Petrojet and Hassan Allam. The 70-km line is expected to be completed in two years and serve some 350k passengers per day.

Egypt and Cameroon are set to host the African volleyball Olympic qualifiers in January 2020, Xinhua reports. Egypt will host the men’s competition in January, making this the first time that Egypt will organize an Olympic qualifying tournament since the Confederation of African Volleyball headquarters were transferred to Cairo in 2001.

Nouran Gohar and Ali Farag win 2019 US Open Squash Championships: Egyptian squash champions Nouran Gohar and Ali Farag defeated compatriots Nour El Tayeb and Mohamed El Shorbagy on Saturday to win the 2019 FS Investments 2019 US Open Squash Championships, Eurosport reports. The women’s final was termed one of the greatest in the championship’s history, with Gohar fighting back against a strong performance from El Tayeb to win her third major PSA title. Farag, meanwhile, was able to take the men’s title in just 40 minutes, ending ElShorbagy’s previously unbeaten start to the season.

Four Egyptian startups are among the second cohort of the Misk 500 Accelerator program, 500 Startups and Misk Innovation announced in a statement yesterday (pdf). Edtech platform OTO, sock manufacturer In Your Shoe, online construction platform El Mawkaa, and tech recruitment specialist Techie Matter are among the 20 MENA companies chosen for the program, which is currently underway in Riyadh. Each company will receive training and a USD 50k investment in return for giving 7% equity to 500 Startups’ regional fund, 500 Falcons.