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Sunday, 18 August 2019

What we’re tracking on 18 August 2019

The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee is set to meet this Thursday, 22 August to review key interest rates. Three-quarters of economists we polled believe that the central bank will cut rates for the first time since February. We have more on this in this morning’s Speed Round, below.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will be in France next week to attend the G7 Summit, which will run from Sunday to Tuesday in Biarritz.

The National Cancer Institute reopened yesterday following the deadly car bombing earlier this month, Cairo University president Mohamed Al Khosht told Al Masry Al Youm. The institute was closed after a car bomb on 4 August killed 20 people and injured 47 others. Cairo University and Arab Contractors Company are still in the process of repairing the building, Khosht said, but confirmed that patients yesterday began to be readmitted for treatment.


You know what’s really bad for markets? All these headlines about how bad things are going for markets. An economic slowdown could be essentially summoned by “alarmist headlines” that stir sentiment in the wrong direction, and would require “political will to head off,” El Erian said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “We may end up in a situation where people read these alarmist headlines, they get concerned, they stop spending. As they stop spending, companies stop investing. And then we get a major slowdown.”

Pimco: Unreported Chinese loans are the “biggest risk for EMs right now”: Unreported loans given to emerging-market governments by Chinese state-owned banks are the “biggest risk for EMs right now,” Erin Browne, a portfolio manager at Pimco, told MarketWatch. The size and terms of many overseas loans issued by Chinese banks are not disclosed, a problem for EM bondholders who have no way of ascertaining a bank’s creditworthiness or the restructuring process that will be followed in the event of default. “Lending by sovereigns that are not part of the official institutional sector is the biggest risk for emerging markets right now – it clouds the waters with respect to how official sector involvement will be during times of distress,” Browne said. “That debt is not transparent to the IMF and to other borrowers that have issued to these countries. If they were to default, or if they were to go in a period of distress, it would be contingent on China setting the rules in terms of working out that debt,” she added.

Fitch downgraded Argentina’s sovereign debt rating to CCC on currency concerns following primary elections, pushing it deeper into junk territory, according to the Financial Times (paywall). Deteriorating market sentiment following the victory of Alberto Fernandez over Mauricio Macri in the country’s primary elections, and the ensuing sharp depreciation in the ARS and widening of sovereign debt spreads “poses a major setback to macroeconomic stabilisation efforts and sovereign financing conditions.” This could hurt sovereign liquidity and increase debt sustainability risks, Fitch said.

Whistleblower accuses GE of fraud worse than Enron: Harry Markopolos, the whistleblower who exposed the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, is accusing General Electric of USD bns-worth of fraud following a yearlong investigation into the company on behalf of a hedge fund, according to the Guardian. “GE’s USD 38 bn in accounting fraud amounts to over 40% of GE’s market capitalization, making it far more serious than either the Enron or WorldCom accounting frauds,” Markopolos said in his report, “General Electric, a Bigger Fraud than Enron.” The accusations caused GE’s shares to plummet 15%.

Sudan’s civilian, military leaders sign final transitional government agreement: Sudan’s Forces of Freedom and Chance (FFC) opposition coalition and the Transitional Military Council (TMC) have signed the final power-sharing agreement that will see a “sovereign council” set up to rule the country for a transitional three-year period until elections are held, Reuters reports. The council will include five members nominated by the TMC, five by the FFC, and one agreed on by both parties. The council’s members will be announced later today, but the TMC has already reportedly nominated its head Abdel Fattah Al Burhan to lead the council and his deputy Mohamed Hamdan “Hemeti” Daglo to be second in charge, Sky News Arabia reported.

Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly attended the signing, alongside African Union Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and representatives from Saudi and the UAE. The parties signed a constitutional declaration earlier this month after weeks of negotiations that followed the ouster of former Sudanese strongman Omar Al Bashir in April.

In other international news:

  • Houthi drones attack Saudi oil plant: Another Saudi Arabian oil and gas facility came under attack by Houthi rebels yesterday, after a drone fired on a natural gas liquids plant at Shaybah. The attack failed to stop production. (Bloomberg)
  • US gives Huawei another reprieve: Huawei will have another 90 days to find alternative suppliers after the US Commerce Department issued a temporary license allowing US companies to do business with the Chinese tech firm. (CNBC)

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