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Tuesday, 23 April 2019

What we’re tracking on 23 April 2019

Polls closed last night in the constitutional referendum, ending three days of balloting that have dominated the front pages here at home and the conversation on Egypt in the international media. Just over 61 mn people were eligible to vote. The National Elections Authority says to expect the results of the referendum no later than this coming Saturday (27 April). You can read our rundown on the amendments here.

The EGX is in the grip of a pre-holiday slowdown, with trading volumes in the dumps this week after hitting a six-year low of EGP 190 mn on Sunday before crawling back to a slightly less comatose EGP 340 mn yesterday, according to EGX data.

What’s behind the market’s lack of energy? “Leaving the Global Telecom case unresolved is creating uncertainty in the market and investors are slow to take positions and many funds have their money stuck in the share,” Sherif Shebl, vice president of GCC sales at Pharos Holding, told Enterprise. The long vacation coming up is also negatively impacting trading, Shebl said.

And that makes it time for our daily reminder: The EGX and banks will close from Thursday through Monday (25-29 April) and again on Wednesday, 1 May in observance of a string of national holidays. That leads us straight into Ramadan, which the National Astronomy Institute says will start on Monday, 6 May. Banks and the EGX traditionally move to shortened Ramadan hours at that time.


Surviving the Emerging Markets Robot Apocalypse: Egypt will have its first undergraduate data science program this fall. Set aside for a moment the (often terrifying) privacy implications of how data is used, we think the program at the American University in Cairo is a mandatory first step in building an economy that will one day survive the coming Robot Apocalypse. (In other words: When developments in AI, data, robotics and the like nuke jobs in everything from manufacturing to call centers, bringing into question what drives growth in emerging economies such as ours in the future.) We have chapter and verse on AUC’s new data program in this morning’s Spotlight, below.


So, what’s going on today?

The Arab Federation of Exchanges’ two-day annual conference kicks off this morning at the Four Seasons Hotel in Cairo. The event puts the spotlight on SMEs, artificial intelligence and fintech as well as the future of listings. Look for keynotes from Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, Public Enterprises Minister Hisham Tawfik, Investment Minister Sahar Nasr and our friend EGX Chairman Mohamed Farid. Panel discussions will feature global capital market leaders from the World Bank, EBRD and World Federation of Exchanges. Also speaking at the gathering today: Our friends from CIB, who feature as a success story. We’ll have coverage of day one in tomorrow morning’s edition.

The SME Governance Workshop hosted by the Egyptian Private Equity Association and IFC kicks off today and wraps up tomorrow. If you run an SME, you should try to make it.

Also this week:

  • Egypt to host Sudan and Libya summits today: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will host a summit today with other African heads of state on the current situation in Sudan, according to Ahram Gate. El Sisi will also discuss developments in Libya during an African Union Troika Summit with the Congolese, Rwandan and South African presidents.
  • El Sisi is due to head to Beijing for China’s Belt and Road Forum. The gathering takes place on 25 April.

The problem with PE in MENA? The legacy of Abraaj. In the west? Simple greed. Not content with keeping 20% of their limited partners’ profits (on top of their annual fee), some western PE outfits are trying to claim 30% carried interest on their top funds, the Financial Times reports.

What’s this “carry” of which you speak? Think of the carried interest as the private equity firm’s incentive to maximize the returns its fund generates: Beyond a certain threshold (the “hurdle rate”), the PE fund manager gets a piece of the returns, giving her an incentive to make the pie as big as possible. That carry has been 20% for decades, but Carlyle, Vista, Bain, Eurazeo and Altor have recently launched funds charging a 30% “super carry.”

So investors are swallowing it? Kinda. In a fundraising environment that favours the GP, they’re getting away with it, the FT writes, and “investors are feeling a bit sore about it.”


What do you do when the Visigoths are at your walls? Cut the people who are supposed to defend you. That’s the take-home from Barclays’ decision to cut bonuses for investment bankers “as the bank steps up its defence against activist investor Edward Bramson ahead of next week’s annual meeting,” according to an exclusive from the Financial Times that has since been picked up by Reuters.

Why is everyone (in the press) itching for a meltdown? Because it’s inevitable that the global economy is going to (at least) slow down — and take markets with it? Or because journalists want something to write about? The scribes feel like golden retrievers mindlessly watching a tennis match right now when they serve us such fare as “For stocks, the good times came back. But for how long?” (New York Times) and “Strong stock and bond markets at odds over global growth” (Reuters).

Also worth a moment of your time this morning:

  • Oil prices have hit their highest level so far this year, with Brent settling in at USD 74 / bbl yesterday after the United States said it would not renew waivers that allow countries to buy Iranian oil without facing US sanctions. The waivers expire on 2 May. (Bloomberg | CNBC)
  • Coffee has never been more in demand, but the price of that wonderful commodity is in the dumpster. (WSJ)

And in miscellany this morning:

  • America’s super-rich are worried about the future of US capitalism… (Washington Post)
  • …and so are CEOs. (Financial Times)
  • Lab-grown meat, volcanic microbes and fermented mushrooms: These are just some of the things that food-tech investors are putting their money into. (TechCrunch)
  • Google-owned Boston Dynamics has published a promo video of its army of robo-dogs as the company begins production of its first commercially-available robot.

A mouse has been cleaning up this guy’s workbench — every single night. Estimated time remaining until Disney turns OCD Mouse into a cartoon: About 45 seconds. Peta Pixel has video proof.

The annual Lyrid meteor shower peaked last night, gracing anyone who could grab a patch of clear sky out in Omm El Donia with a view of the world’s oldest recorded meteor shower.

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