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Wednesday, 17 April 2019

The Market Yesterday

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Pharos Holding - http://www.pharosholding.com/

EGP / USD CBE market average: Buy 17.26 | Sell 17.36
EGP / USD at CIB:
Buy 17.26 | Sell 17.36
EGP / USD at NBE: Buy 17.25 | Sell 17.35

EGX30 (Tuesday): 14,973 (-0.6%)
Turnover: EGP 682 mn (22% below the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: +14.9%

THE MARKET ON TUESDAY: The EGX30 ended Tuesday’s session down 0.6%. CIB, the index heaviest constituent ended down 0.1%. EGX30’s top performing constituents were CIRA up 2.8%, Arab Cotton Ginning up 2.5%, and GB Auto up 1.1%. Yesterday’s worst performing stocks were Qalaa Holdings down 3.7%, Egyptian Iron & Steel down 3.2% and Emaar Misr down 2.8%. The market turnover was EGP 682 mn, and local investors were the sole net sellers.

Foreigners: Net Long | EGP +22.2 mn
Regional: Net Long | EGP +3.0 mn
Domestic: Net Short | EGP -25.2 mn

Retail: 53.6% of total trades | 51.8% of buyers | 55.5% of sellers
Institutions: 46.4% of total trades | 48.2% of buyers | 44.5% of sellers


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PHAROS VIEW

Monthly inflation rates are expected to peak at 3.0% in June on the back of a fresh round of fuel subsidy cuts, and again in September “as the automatic fuel pricing mechanism committee reevaluates fuel prices and introduces to the formula the rest of fuel items.” These events will coincide with back-to-school season, which typically results in a 1% m-o-m increase in prices, Pharos notes. The m-o-m acceleration will be a departure from March’s inflation figures, which saw monthly inflation decelerate to 0.9%. With these expected bumps in inflation in mind, Pharos expects the CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee to keep rates on hold until 4Q2019, at which point they could be cut by 100-200 bps. You can catch the full report here (pdf).

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WTI: USD 64.39 (+0.53%)
Brent: USD 71.87 (+0.21%)

Natural Gas (Nymex, futures prices) USD 2.58 MMBtu, (+0.27%, May 2019)
Gold: USD 1,278.70 / troy ounce (+0.12%)

TASI: 9,139.55 (+0.57%) (YTD: +16.77%)
ADX: 5,213.63 (-0.16%) (YTD: +6.07%)
DFM: 2,791.87 (-0.47%) (YTD: +10.36%)
KSE Premier Market: 6,181.94 (+0.75%)
QE: 10,258.75 (+0.36%) (YTD: -0.39%)
MSM: 3,984.94 (-0.66%) (YTD: -7.84%)
BB: 1,443.23 (+0.14%) (YTD: +7.92%)

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